WHO's top scientist says Omicron could displace Delta

[Jeffr2]

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-chief-scientist-says-omicron-quite-infectious-must-not-panic-2021-12-03/

 

Omicron highly infectious, S.African cases doubling every day

Swaminathan says not clear yet whether Omicron is milder

Vaccine may not need to be adapted for Omicron

 

The World Health Organization's chief scientist told the Reuters Next conference on Friday the Omicron variant could become dominant because it is highly transmissible, but that a different vaccine may not be needed.

 

Soumya Swaminathan also said it was too early to say whether Omicron is milder than other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 and cast doubt over its origin, saying it was far from certain it emerged in southern Africa.

[Jeffr2]

[blackprince]

The issue in Africa was predicted by the WHO Ambassador for Global Health Financing as a consequence of the west's hoarding of vaccines. He has been making this point ever since covid vaccines were first released, about a year now.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/09/gordon-brown-exhorts-west-to-stop-hoarding-vaccines

 

[Jeffr2]

1 minute ago, blackprince said:

The issue in Africa was predicted by the WHO Ambassador for Global Health Financing as a consequence of the west's hoarding of vaccines. He has been making this point ever since covid vaccines were first released, about a year now.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/09/gordon-brown-exhorts-west-to-stop-hoarding-vaccines

 

But as we know, SA is shipping unused jabs back.  There aren't enough arms for them.

[blackprince]

8 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

But as we know, SA is shipping unused jabs back.  There aren't enough arms for them.

As I've pointed out 4 times now in the last 2 days, the NYT claims that the issue in SA is lack of facilities to deliver the jabs. The NYT calls this an "over supply" issue. I have already linked the article.

 

It's a complex issue which does not lend itself to bite sized analysis, which is one reason why so much of the social media discussion gets out of kilter so quickly.

Edited December 4, 2021 by blackprince

[blackprince]

The WHO Ambassador for Global Health Financing urged recently that "More than 100,000 lives can be saved in Africa by undertaking the emergency airlift of 240m unused vaccines in the next fortnight".

 

No one listened. The situation in Africa will only get worse as a consequence.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/17/gordon-brown-urges-emergency-covid-vaccine-airlift-to-africa

 

[blackprince]

The WHO Ambassador for Global Health Financing also said "In the absence of mass vaccination, Covid is not only spreading uninhibited among unprotected people but is mutating, with new variants emerging out of the poorest countries and now threatening to unleash themselves on even fully vaccinated people in the richest countries in the world."

 

Like everywhere in the world Africa will have its share of vaccine hesitancy. But the issue right now is the west's hoarding. This has been stated repeatedly as a risk over the last year.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/covid-omicron-variant-no-surprise-25560633

 

 

[Jeffr2]

7 minutes ago, blackprince said:

As I've pointed out 4 times now in the last 2 days, the NYT claims that the issue in SA is lack of facilities to deliver the jabs. The NYT calls this an "over supply" issue. I have already linked the article.

 

It's a complex issue which does not lend itself to bite sized analysis, which is one reason why so much of the social media discussion gets out of kilter so quickly.

I'm sure it's more complicated than just a headline.  But this is one I read recently.  Misinformation is a huge problem there.  Just like it is here on this forum! LOL

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

EXCLUSIVE South Africa delays COVID vaccine deliveries as inoculations slow

South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

 

About 35% of South Africans are fully vaccinated, higher than in most other African nations, but half the government's year-end target. It has averaged 106,000 doses a day in the past 15 days in a nation of 60 million people.

 

"There is a fair amount of apathy and hesitancy," said Shabir Madhi, who led the clinical study for the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) COVID-19 vaccine in South Africa.

[Jeffr2]

https://time.com/6124974/omicron-africa-vaccines/

But in order to improve Africa’s vaccination rate, it will take more than just a flood of COVID-19 vaccine doses. A lack of coordination on vaccine shipments, weak health infrastructure and vaccine hesitancy sowed by mistrust and misinformation are already slowing vaccination efforts when doses are available, African health experts say.

[Jeffr2]

This is scary.  Perhaps where Omicron originated?  Nobody knows.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/health/covid-variant-south-africa-hiv.html

When people with H.I.V. are prescribed an effective antiretroviral and take it consistently, their bodies almost completely suppress the virus. But if people with H.I.V. aren’t diagnosed, haven’t been prescribed treatment, or don’t, or can’t, take their medicines consistently each day, H.I.V. weakens their immune systems. And then, if they catch the coronavirus, it can take weeks or months before the new virus is cleared from their bodies.

 

When the coronavirus lives that long in their systems, it has the chance to mutate and mutate and mutate again. And, if they pass the mutated virus on, a new variant is in circulation.

 

“We have reasons to believe that some of the variants that are emerging in South Africa could potentially be associated directly with H.I.V.,” said Tulio de Oliveira, the principal investigator of the national genetic monitoring network.

[blackprince]

49 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

"There is a fair amount of apathy and hesitancy," said Shabir Madhi, who led the clinical study for the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) COVID-19 vaccine in South Africa.

Good post Jeff. I'm sure there is "a fair amount of apathy and vaccine hesitancy", there often is in populations who feel disconnected from their government.

 

But around 70% of South Africans remain unvaccinated, and I'd genuinely be very surpised if that can all be explained by apathy and hesitancy. My guess is that apathy and hesitancy is not a limiting factor yet in the vaccine rollout in SA, but that the limiting factor is the lack of facilities as per the NYT article.

 

But beyond all that there is the elephant in the room of western hoarding. These problems were first predicetd a year ago when the vaccines were first available for consumption.

 

I've been slowly compiling a post about vaccine hesitancy and its correlation to half a dozen factors. Eventually I'll get around to posting it.

[Jeffr2]

6 minutes ago, blackprince said:

Good post Jeff. I'm sure there is "a fair amount of apathy and vaccine hesitancy", there often is in populations who feel disconnected from their government.

 

But around 70% of South Africans remain unvaccinated, and I'd genuinely be very surpised if that can all be explained by apathy and hesitancy. My guess is that apathy and hesitancy is not a limiting factor yet in the vaccine rollout in SA, but that the limiting factor is the lack of facilities as per the NYT article.

 

But beyond all that there is the elephant in the room of western hoarding. These problems were first predicetd a year ago when the vaccines were first available for consumption.

 

I've been slowly compiling a post about vaccine hesitancy and its correlation to half a dozen factors. Eventually I'll get around to posting it.

Either way, we need to get more people vaccinated.  Until then, the potential for mutations is great.  Hopefully, we won't get a really bad one.  But who knows....scary.

[mfd101]

The issues are complex as always. But, as to Western countries 'hoarding', part of the complexity is that democratically-elected governments are expected to respond, and quickly,  to the needs and anxieties of the citizens who elected them.

[placeholder]

44 minutes ago, blackprince said:

But around 70% of South Africans remain unvaccinated, and I'd genuinely be very surpised if that can all be explained by apathy and hesitancy. My guess is that apathy and hesitancy is not a limiting factor yet in the vaccine rollout in SA, but that the limiting factor is the lack of facilities as per the NYT article.

 

Who is claiming that it "can all be explained by apathy and hesitancy"? Straw manning much? But that new york times article you seem resolutely determined to ignore quoted those on the front line who say it is a very big problem.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/world/africa/coranavirus-vaccine-hesitancy-africa.htm

[blackprince]

53 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Either way, we need to get more people vaccinated.  Until then, the potential for mutations is great.  Hopefully, we won't get a really bad one.  But who knows....scary.

Again, let's not oversimplify. In the UK "nine in 10 of those aged 12 or over having had a single jab and eight in 10 having had a second, the focus has shifted to boosters," (BBC)

 

But the big problem with boosters in the developed world is that there will be even less vaccines available in the undeveloped world.

 

The main cause by far of lack of vaccination in the undeveloped world has been western hoarding, this has been known for the last year since vaccines became available. And boosters for the west will only exacerbate this problem.

 

There is a very serious problem of politicised anti-vaxx in the US. That is not the main issue in the rest of the world.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

[Jeffr2]

1 minute ago, blackprince said:

Again, let's not oversimplify. In the UK "nine in 10 of those aged 12 or over having had a single jab and eight in 10 having had a second, the focus has shifted to boosters," (BBC)

 

But the big problem with boosters in the developed world is that there will be even less vaccines available in the undeveloped world.

 

The main cause by far of lack of vaccination in the undeveloped world has been western hoarding, this has been known for the last year since vaccines became available. And boosters for the west will only exacerbate this problem.

 

There is a very serious problem of politicised anti-vaxx in the US. That is not the main issue in the rest of the world.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

Perhaps not politicised anti vaxx, but for sure misinformation.  It's a global problem.  Look at Russia.  Heck, most of Eastern Europe.  Even Germany is having problems with this.

 

Vaccinations are there.  Arms to put them in are not.

[blackprince]

2 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Perhaps not politicised anti vaxx, but for sure misinformation.  It's a global problem.  Look at Russia.  Heck, most of Eastern Europe.  Even Germany is having problems with this.

 

Vaccinations are there.  Arms to put them in are not.

The global problem is shortage of vaccines. The problem in some US states is lack of willing arms. Putin's Russia is as untypical as Texas 555 (though for different reasons I'm sure).

 

Yes, Germany has got to the level of vaccination penetration that vaccine hesitancy is a factor, France too I believe. But most of the world is a very long way from that.

 

Anyway, weekends are a particularly busy time for me, so I'll have to go, cheers.

 

[placeholder]

15 minutes ago, blackprince said:

Yes, Germany has got to the level of vaccination penetration that vaccine hesitancy is a factor, France too I believe. But most of the world is a very long way from that.

 

We don't actually know how big a factor it is worldwide. There is very strong evidence that in sub-saharan africa it is a major factor.

[blackprince]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

We don't actually know how big a factor it is worldwide. There is very strong evidence that in sub-saharan africa it is a major factor.

The critical problem in sub-saharan Africa, as in most of the undeveloped world, is lack of access to vaccines. I've posted numerous links to confirm that over the last week or two, and several more today.

 

Once the west has stopped hoarding vaccines and made good on its pledge to vaccinate the world, and perhaps waived covid vaccine patents as requested by the WHO among others, then we can start to address the issue of residual vaccine hesitancy in the undeveloped world.

 

Apart from anything else, much of the undeveloped world lacks the administrative infrastructure to gather reliable stats, never mind roll out a vaccine programme, even assuming the west made good its pledge.

 

The focus on politicised anti-vaxx is a 1st world luxury.

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by blackprince

[mfd101]

In sum, 'lack of access to vaccines' and 'lack of vaccines' are 2 different but overlapping subsets.

 

So, in any particular country at any particular time there may be any number of varying mixes of demand and offer: vaccines present but not available to be jabbed into arms, or all the arms ready and waiting but no vaccines, or ...

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, blackprince said:

The critical problem in sub-saharan Africa, as in most of the undeveloped world, is lack of access to vaccines. I've posted numerous links to confirm that over the last week or two, and several more today.

 

Once the west has stopped hoarding vaccines and made good on its pledge to vaccinate the world, and perhaps waived covid vaccine patents as requested by the WHO among others, then we can start to address the issue of residual vaccine hesitancy in the undeveloped world.

 

The focus on politicised anti-vaxx is a 1st world luxury.

Take your case up with the New York Times and the front line experts in Africa whom they interviewed. 

Repeating an assertion over and over doesn't make it true. Especially when someone chooses to ignore authoritative comtradictory information. And to forestall a strawman assertion that it is being claimed that vaccine hesitancy is the only cause, that is not what I'm asserting.

[blackprince]

The focus of 1st world commenters on politicised anti-vaxx simply doesn't address the real issues facing the undeveloped world. Here's yet another example of what I mean - this time from Nature - 03 November 2021 :

 

"Fowotade’s troubles mirror those faced by other trials in Africa — posing a major problem for those countries in the continent that have been unable to secure enough vaccines against COVID-19. Only 2.7% of people in Nigeria, the continent’s most populous country, have been at least partially vaccinated. That’s just slightly lower than the average rate for low-income countries. Estimates suggest that it could take until at least September 2022 for African nations to obtain enough doses to fully vaccinate 70% of the continent’s population."

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02995-5

 

Yes there is vaccine hesitancy in the undeveloped world (as most everywhere else), but it's not quantifiable because the administrative infrastructure for collecting such stats does not exist.

 

But much more importantly, the critical issue right now is lack of vaccines and lack of facilities to roll out a vaccination programme effectively.

 

 

 

 

[mfd101]

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/world-has-stockpiled-more-covid19-jabs-than-it-can-use/news-story/6ec3a7e9dee4fc318f8092f1c435ef7c

[Bkk Brian]

10 hours ago, blackprince said:

As I've pointed out 4 times now in the last 2 days, the NYT claims that the issue in SA is lack of facilities to deliver the jabs. The NYT calls this an "over supply" issue. I have already linked the article.

 

It's a complex issue which does not lend itself to bite sized analysis, which is one reason why so much of the social media discussion gets out of kilter so quickly.

The NYT can make those claims as much as they want, the data however says another thing. SA has the capacity to deliver vaccines, it was jabbing people at the rate of 280k per day back in late August/Sept, since then it kept on declining until just a week ago when an uptick started that coincided with the Omicron news.

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=429907215427698&id=100625955022494

 

However seeing as your keen on the NYT then a more recent article from the 1st Dec quotes the Africa director of the World Health Organization:

 

Just days before the Omicron variant was first detected, health officials in South Africa turned away shipments of doses from Pfizer-BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson, worried that their stockpile of 16 million shots might spoil amid insufficient demand.

 

“There’s no doubt that vaccine hesitancy is a factor in the rollout of vaccines,” said Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the Africa director of the World Health Organization. News or rumors of potential side effects, she said, “gets picked out and talked about, and some people become afraid.”

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/world/africa/coranavirus-vaccine-hesitancy-africa.html

Edited December 5, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[blackprince]

The obsession of first world commenters with Texan style politicised anti-vaxx is blinding so many people to the real issues in the undeveloped world.

Yes vaccine hesitancy exists everywhere to a point (often a very small point), but that's not the critical issue in undeveloped nations.

 

From Quartz Africa – Oct 26 2021

 

“The reason for the underreporting and lack of testing is the same: Limited healthcare resources. Most African countries lack basic healthcare infrastructures, such as hospitals or even clinics outside cities, making covid-19 tests and diagnoses harder to come by.”

“World Health Organization (WHO) data found that fewer than 15% of covid-19 cases in African countries are correctly reported.”

 

https://qz.com/africa/2079064/only-one-in-seven-cases-of-covid-19-in-africa-is-reported/

 

I'm also very surprised that so many posters seem to be blind to the west's failure to honour its covid pledge; this has been widely reported in the UK's liberal press since almost as long as covid vaxxes have been available.

 

The critical issue in the undeveloped world is not vaxx resistance, it's lack of vaccines.

 

People and governments are desperate for vaccines, but cannot get them due to well-documented western hoarding. if sufficient vaccines were available  tomorrow the majority would get vaxxed very willingly; then and only then should we waste so much hot air on politicised anti-vaxx.

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by blackprince

[placeholder]

22 minutes ago, blackprince said:

The obsession of first world commenters with Texan style politicised anti-vaxx is blinding so many people to the real issues in the undeveloped world.

Yes vaccine hesitancy exists everywhere to a point (often a very small point), but that's not the critical issue in undeveloped nations.

 

From Quartz Africa – Oct 26 2021

 

“The reason for the underreporting and lack of testing is the same: Limited healthcare resources. Most African countries lack basic healthcare infrastructures, such as hospitals or even clinics outside cities, making covid-19 tests and diagnoses harder to come by.”

“World Health Organization (WHO) data found that fewer than 15% of covid-19 cases in African countries are correctly reported.”

 

The critical issue in the undeveloped world is not vaxx resistance, it's lack of vaccines.

 

People and governments are desperate for vaccines, but cannot get them due to well-documented western hoarding. if sufficient vaccines were available  tomorrow the majority would get vaxxed very willingly; then and only then should we waste so much hot air on politicised anti-vaxx.

 

Most African countries. Not all. Most. South Africa has a reasonably well developed public health system. It can deliver the good where they're wanted. And yet, they can't use up their stocks of vaccine even when the percentage of the vaccinated population is still very low. And experts from that region of Africa believe that hesitancy is a BIG problem.

We don't know how big a problem hesitancy is in other parts of the developing world. I certainly hope you're right. But no one knows. No one. There's a lot of misinformation and disinformation put there by some governments and reactionary factions. Who knows how much of it has reached the developing world and what role it will play?

[blackprince]

I guess the people who are so obsessed by politicised anti-vaxx might eventually open their eyes to the reality in the undeveloped world:

Time December 1, 2021

“So far, just 7.3% of Africans are fully vaccinated against COVID-19…. Meanwhile, just 12% of the 1.9 billion doses promised to low and middle income countries had been delivered as of early November.

But in order to improve Africa’s vaccination rate, it will take more than just a flood of COVID-19 vaccine doses. A lack of coordination on vaccine shipments, weak health infrastructure and vaccine hesitancy sowed by mistrust and misinformation are already slowing vaccination efforts when doses are available, African health experts say.”

https://time.com/6124974/omicron-africa-vaccines/

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, blackprince said:

I guess the people who are so obsessed by politicised anti-vaxx might eventually open their eyes to the reality in the undeveloped world:

Red Herring Much? It seems that anytime one suggests that the lack of vaccines isn't the only problem in the developing world, you resort to that canard. For someone who has repeatedly claimed that it's a complicated question of why people arent' getting vaccinated in Europe and the rest of the developed world, you seem to resort to a very simplistic stance when it comes to elsewhere.

And, as I pointed out, those generalizations about African infrastructure don't apply to South Africa. You seem to believe that Sub-Saharan Africa is one homogenous mass of extreme underdevelopment. It ain't.

[Bkk Brian]

40 minutes ago, blackprince said:

The obsession of first world commenters with Texan style politicised anti-vaxx is blinding so many people to the real issues in the undeveloped world.

Yes vaccine hesitancy exists everywhere to a point (often a very small point), but that's not the critical issue in undeveloped nations.

 

What obsession?

 

My posts refer to SA and it is an issue there currently as per the data and evidence provided. Regards the rest of Africa and the under developed world I have not researched but know very well they have lacked vaccine supplies.

[blackprince]

Here’s yet another article, this time from Relief Web from June 2021, that demonstrates the variety of issues affecting the vaccination of Africa.

 

I chose June to demonstrate that this issue has been known about for a long time,  all the way back to the initial release of covid vaccines.

 

I could offer this kind of article for every week of the last year, but would it ever convince those people who believe that vaccine hesitancy is the key issue?

 

“Through its involvement in the region, including COVID and vaccine science trainings for health workers, Project HOPE identified several challenges and gaps contributing to a low vaccination rate in Africa. While insufficient COVID-19 vaccine supplies remains a top issue for African countries, other reported issues include the lack of funds, lack of trained professionals and hesitancy among the population to get the vaccine. In addition, many countries were not able to reach priority groups because they are not equipped with up-to-date registration systems that allow to locate and register these priority individuals. Finally, because of a severe lack of vaccine doses, many countries were using different vaccines, which created challenges such as keeping track of who gets what type of vaccine, differing logistics and storage requirements and training vaccinators to give different vaccines.”

 

https://reliefweb.int/report/world/africas-lack-vaccine-not-only-reason-slow-vaccine-rollout

Edited December 5, 2021 by blackprince