Thai Baht Volatility

[lannarebirth]

That makes more sense.But if the dollar collapses this does mean the GBP,Euro and the thai Baht will appreciate a lot,don't they?

So who stays on dollars will be nervous and who stays on GBP or euros it will be more stable or even better?

Or do I got the picture wrong?

I would pay zero attention to what people say and follow instead what they do. Many of the comments central banks make are self serving. From what's been posted here, I have absolutely no idea what message it is, that is trying to be conveyed.

Back to the dollar. Here is a chart Of the $USD Index, which is the value of the USD against a basket of other currencies. it's as ugly a chart as you'll ever see, as it's locked in a downtrend and keeps breaking support after support. BUT, it is now just under a strong resistance point and it's most recent uptrend line which it had broken previously. If, over the course of the next few days it can regain that support it will break out of what's called a bullish falling wedge attern and may run a bit. All speculation on my part of course. here's the chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...&a=63893762

Here's a close up view:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...&a=63893762

I should mention, that if this scenario doesn't happen and it fails here, it could plunge rapidly. Good Luck everyone.

Anyhow, I was stopped out of this trade tonight at B/E. I still think it's a valid idea, but I'm not about to lose any money because I disagree with the market.

[beammeup]

Does anyone know why the BBC web site is saying the Thai Baht is at 69. to the UK pound? I have been using this site for several years and it has been pretty good til now?

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm

[TBWG]

Does anyone know why the BBC web site is saying the Thai Baht is at 69. to the UK pound? I have been using this site for several years and it has been pretty good til now?

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm

Hi

Well according to Bangkok bank the ROE is approx 69 baht to the UK£. Surely you know better than to doubt the British Broadcasting Company!!!

Anyway i'm off to bed now because my brain hurts after reading 7 pages of diverse financial opinion, only wish I understood it, still that probaly explains why I have no cash to worry about

TBWG .

[sonicdragon]

Does anyone know why the BBC web site is saying the Thai Baht is at 69. to the UK pound? I have been using this site for several years and it has been pretty good til now?

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm

I can only imagine that the beeb has begun using the onshore rate.

[VegasVic]

Vic, it's an interesting debate. I certainly agree that it's wrong to say that a stong currency equates to a stong economy. I would say that a *stable* currency is more conducive to a strong economy. I agree with you about the US consumer, but I think you overestimate the impact of a low oil price on inflation in the US. Of course it will help, but another driver of inflation will be the increasing price of imports as the $ continues to fall against the yuan. And how will the US continue to service it's debts in a recessionary environment ? The national debt has trippled since the last deep recession. In the scenario we are talking about, the biggest buyers of US treasuries - foreign central banks, in particular the chinese and japanese - will not be in a position to continue doing so. This will lead to higher long rates, creating a bigger pinch on the US economy.

Sonic, I don't have too much time, but I will try and answer your queries. First of all a weak dollar is very productive for the U.S. economy right now, but it would depend on what country one refers to as if a weaker currency or a stable currency is more conducive to a strong economy. If oil prices were to go to $25/bbl then yes it would be a major impact on keeping inflation down, as for the dollar getting weaker than it is right now, this is a pretty unlikely scenario a more likely scenario is that the dollar will more or less maintain its current valuations with a slight upside bais until a new president is in office(Jan. 09) and at that time the U.S. will likely have pared back its involvment in Iraq and the dollar will begin a slow upward move that will likely maintain for years to come. Part of the reason for this move will be due to a reversal of an artificial element which has downward pressure on the dollar for many years now, and this coupled with higher interest rates in the U.S. and leveling the playing field with China(China currently is basically getting a pass from world outcry and sanctions for using prison labor and poluting the planet at will, this won't last much longer) will begin to adress the trade defeceits, as for the budget defeceit this will become a surplus within 3 years do to increasing tax receipts in the U.S.. When this "pinch" happens to the U.S. economy, then of course the U.S. consumer will be in the drivers seat and by lower consumption of imports they will in one fell swoop both help to lower the remaining trade defeiciets and keep inflation under control. Of course all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe) and oil went to $150/bbl, most of the U.S. bashers out there forget that the U.S. has coal reserves within its borders that could last for more than 300 years and during a time of extreme crisis I think that EPA regulations will go out the window! I have a couple of golf tournaments that I am playing in over the next few days so I have to go now, to all the Yanks out there have a great 4th of July!

[Naam]

Does anyone know why the BBC web site is saying the Thai Baht is at 69. to the UK pound? I have been using this site for several years and it has been pretty good til now?

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm

I can only imagine that the beeb has begun using the onshore rate.

i realized that already on wednesday with the websites i am using. a couple of hours later my bank confirmed that i can buy THB offshore at onshore rates. no further explanation was available.

[sonicdragon]

Vic, it's an interesting debate. I certainly agree that it's wrong to say that a stong currency equates to a stong economy. I would say that a *stable* currency is more conducive to a strong economy. I agree with you about the US consumer, but I think you overestimate the impact of a low oil price on inflation in the US. Of course it will help, but another driver of inflation will be the increasing price of imports as the $ continues to fall against the yuan. And how will the US continue to service it's debts in a recessionary environment ? The national debt has trippled since the last deep recession. In the scenario we are talking about, the biggest buyers of US treasuries - foreign central banks, in particular the chinese and japanese - will not be in a position to continue doing so. This will lead to higher long rates, creating a bigger pinch on the US economy.

Sonic, I don't have too much time, but I will try and answer your queries. First of all a weak dollar is very productive for the U.S. economy right now, but it would depend on what country one refers to as if a weaker currency or a stable currency is more conducive to a strong economy. If oil prices were to go to $25/bbl then yes it would be a major impact on keeping inflation down, as for the dollar getting weaker than it is right now, this is a pretty unlikely scenario a more likely scenario is that the dollar will more or less maintain its current valuations with a slight upside bais until a new president is in office(Jan. 09) and at that time the U.S. will likely have pared back its involvment in Iraq and the dollar will begin a slow upward move that will likely maintain for years to come. Part of the reason for this move will be due to a reversal of an artificial element which has downward pressure on the dollar for many years now, and this coupled with higher interest rates in the U.S. and leveling the playing field with China(China currently is basically getting a pass from world outcry and sanctions for using prison labor and poluting the planet at will, this won't last much longer) will begin to adress the trade defeceits, as for the budget defeceit this will become a surplus within 3 years do to increasing tax receipts in the U.S.. When this "pinch" happens to the U.S. economy, then of course the U.S. consumer will be in the drivers seat and by lower consumption of imports they will in one fell swoop both help to lower the remaining trade defeiciets and keep inflation under control. Of course all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe) and oil went to $150/bbl, most of the U.S. bashers out there forget that the U.S. has coal reserves within its borders that could last for more than 300 years and during a time of extreme crisis I think that EPA regulations will go out the window! I have a couple of golf tournaments that I am playing in over the next few days so I have to go now, to all the Yanks out there have a great 4th of July!

Vic, leaving aside the catastrophe scenario and staying with the global recession picture, I can't see how you think that tax receipts will increase. Recession=consumption down; business activity/profitability down = much lower tax receipts = worsenning budget deficit.

[Mid]

BOT set for green light on bonds

Move expected to help stabilise the baht

Sun, July 1, 2007 : Last updated 13:22 pm

The Finance Ministry will likely let the Bank of Thailand (BOT) lift its outstanding bond limit to Bt1.5 trillion, but if the central bank lowered its policy interest rate, then capital inflows could subside and alleviate the need to issue more bonds, the Fiscal Policy Office said yesterday.

"For practicality's sake, the Finance Ministry will approve the central bank's request, because bonds are a tool in stabilising the baht," said Fiscal Policy Office director-general Pannee Sathavarodom, adding that the green light might come after the BOT reduced its policy rate.

"The central bank will reach its bond limit [currently Bt1.13 trillion] at the end of this quarter," she said.

Since the baht started appreciating rapidly against the US dollar, the BOT has sold truckloads of the Thai currency and bought greenbacks, to weaken the country's currency. Baht liquidity in the system has soared, and the bonds are issued to absorb the surplus.

The Fiscal Policy Office earlier urged the BOT to cut its policy rate to stall capital inflows, which did not recede despite the draconian capital-reserve measure.

The baht over the past two weeks has been highly volatile. It ended yesterday at 35.00/35.02, down from the opening of 34.97/35.01. It has weakened to near the level seen earlier this year on rumours that the central bank would introduce a withholding tax, return to a fixed exchange-rate regime or cut the one-day repurchase rate simply to depreciate the baht.

[matt888]

Does anyone know why the BBC web site is saying the Thai Baht is at 69. to the UK pound? I have been using this site for several years and it has been pretty good til now?

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm

I can only imagine that the beeb has begun using the onshore rate.

in your opinion (or anyones), do you think now is a good time to transfer £50,000 to thailand, and is there anything i should do (i understand i should ask my UK bank not to change the money into baht in the UK, but send it as £'s)

but is there anything else i should know/think about.

any info/thoughts at all on this matter would be most appreciated

kind regards

[Mid]

Southeast Asian Currencies Mixed Versus Greenback Monday Morning

2007 RealTimeTraders.com

7/2/2007 9:51:13 AM Southeast Asian currencies experienced mixed results against the American dollar Monday morning in New York. The Singapore dollar climbed to a six-week high versus the buck. Meanwhile, the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah fell to the downside against their American counterpart.

snip

The Thai baht retreated sharply against the greenback Monday morning in New York. The Thai currency advanced after 3:00 am ET, eventually reaching an intraday high of about 31.60 at around 3:30 am. The baht, however, more than lost its gains over the next several hours. At 9:00 am, the Thai currency traded at a mark of 31.90 against its American counterpart. Traders considered news that Thailand will retain capital controls imposed at the end of last year.

on-shore The Siam Commercial Bank

[VegasVic]

Vic, it's an interesting debate. I certainly agree that it's wrong to say that a stong currency equates to a stong economy. I would say that a *stable* currency is more conducive to a strong economy. I agree with you about the US consumer, but I think you overestimate the impact of a low oil price on inflation in the US. Of course it will help, but another driver of inflation will be the increasing price of imports as the $ continues to fall against the yuan. And how will the US continue to service it's debts in a recessionary environment ? The national debt has trippled since the last deep recession. In the scenario we are talking about, the biggest buyers of US treasuries - foreign central banks, in particular the chinese and japanese - will not be in a position to continue doing so. This will lead to higher long rates, creating a bigger pinch on the US economy.

Sonic, I don't have too much time, but I will try and answer your queries. First of all a weak dollar is very productive for the U.S. economy right now, but it would depend on what country one refers to as if a weaker currency or a stable currency is more conducive to a strong economy. If oil prices were to go to $25/bbl then yes it would be a major impact on keeping inflation down, as for the dollar getting weaker than it is right now, this is a pretty unlikely scenario a more likely scenario is that the dollar will more or less maintain its current valuations with a slight upside bais until a new president is in office(Jan. 09) and at that time the U.S. will likely have pared back its involvment in Iraq and the dollar will begin a slow upward move that will likely maintain for years to come. Part of the reason for this move will be due to a reversal of an artificial element which has downward pressure on the dollar for many years now, and this coupled with higher interest rates in the U.S. and leveling the playing field with China(China currently is basically getting a pass from world outcry and sanctions for using prison labor and poluting the planet at will, this won't last much longer) will begin to adress the trade defeceits, as for the budget defeceit this will become a surplus within 3 years do to increasing tax receipts in the U.S.. When this "pinch" happens to the U.S. economy, then of course the U.S. consumer will be in the drivers seat and by lower consumption of imports they will in one fell swoop both help to lower the remaining trade defeiciets and keep inflation under control. Of course all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe) and oil went to $150/bbl, most of the U.S. bashers out there forget that the U.S. has coal reserves within its borders that could last for more than 300 years and during a time of extreme crisis I think that EPA regulations will go out the window! I have a couple of golf tournaments that I am playing in over the next few days so I have to go now, to all the Yanks out there have a great 4th of July!

Vic, leaving aside the catastrophe scenario and staying with the global recession picture, I can't see how you think that tax receipts will increase. Recession=consumption down; business activity/profitability down = much lower tax receipts = worsenning budget deficit.

Sonic, when is a global recession not a catastrophe? I think somewhere in one of my past posts I refered to the froth and excess around the world in some of the equity markets and tongue and cheek said that the coming chinese meltdown could be the tipping point to set off the worldwide recession that the doomsdayers have been waiting for, for decades now. It seems that you took this to mean that I think that a gobal recession is just around the corner. I apologize for my facietous comments in that prior post, but I assure you that I most definately do not feel that a global recession is in the cards at this time, the chinese equity markets will have their colapse and this will have some fallout (most notably in S.E.Asia), but this will not trigger a worldwide recession. Tax receipts in the U.S. for 2005 were far greater than expected and the projected deficiet was much higher than the actual deficiet, this played out again for 2006 tax receipts exept that the margin was even greater. Tax receipts for 2007 will whittle down the budget deficiets once again, and with the drawdown of troops in Iraq and public pressure on Congress to lower spending ( do away with earmarks, and perhaps actually pass a balanced budget amendment) the next president of the U.S. will likely have a balanced budget if not a small surplus laid in his lap. There is a very strong dialouge going on in the U.S. about the bad trade agreements that the U.S. has entered into and many of these will be cancelled in the next term (NAFTA being the first one to go) and if the Democrats remain a majority in the Congress and claim the Presidency then you can be assured that the U.S. will be far tougher in dealing with China. Chinas' days of enjoying a free pass on things like prison-slave-child labor, polution and copyright infringement to name a few will come to an abrupt halt. This of course will hurt many multinational U.S. firms, but I don't think that the Democrats really care too much for U.S. companies that have been moving U.S. jobs overseas. With the strong language that the FED came out with on inflation(actually lack there of) in their meeting last week, the bond market here has gone crazy and the rates have fallen every day since that meeting and as a result the dollar fell to multi year lows against the GBP and Aussie$ today. I still feel that the dollar has basically bottomed, but we will be in this trough area for many months to come before the dollar starts appreciating, and the dollar will not make substantial appreciation until the U.S. begins to make large troop reductions in Iraq. Once again happy 4th of July to all the yanks out there!

[backflip]

"the chinese equity markets will have their colapse and this will have some fallout (most notably in S.E.Asia)"

The Chinese equity markets will experience a significant correction within 6 months following the Olympic games, which begin 8/8/08.

There has been a lot of speculation of the cause of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Most notably, the atmosphere today "is exactly like what it was in 1997, and the Thai economy will collapse". A myopic perspective, to be sure, especially considering that nearly ALL Asian economies tumbled at the same time. So, what exactly happened in 1997? Surprise, Hong Kong reverted to China, and the uncertainty of that caused the Asian financial crisis. Sorry folks, Thaksin had nothing to do with it.

"do away with earmarks"

Another chestnut roasted by both the Republicans and Democrtas. I agree that the earmarks should be done away with. But, considering the size of them (perhaps $25B), in relation to the booked Federal budget (does not include the "off-book" expenditures) of $3 TRILLION, it's about 1% - absolutely insignificant to the actual deficit and subsequent borrowing.

"Democrats...will be far tougher in dealing with China"

The Democrats will rattle their swords, and nothing more - unfortunately.

"the bond market here has gone crazy and the rates have fallen every day"

If you are referring to the US bond market, the PRICES have fallen, but the rates have risen.

[Naam]

"the bond market here has gone crazy and the rates have fallen every day"

If you are referring to the US bond market, the PRICES have fallen, but the rates have risen.

it's the other way round. US-Treasuries have gained substantially yesterday and are a bit weaker in Asia today:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

[Naam]

US TREASURIES

Treasuries continued to rally on the heels of Friday's strength, and today's move came despite a stronger than expected national ISM report, and a solid equity rally. While equities moved higher, though, ABX prices did not, suggesting that last week's late weakness was not just about aggressive month-end selling. Today's price action makes us more confident in our view that market positioning is balanced, and that there might even be a short base developing up against the 5% level in tens. Overall market volumes were light today, with just 820k ten year note futures trading, but we saw surprisingly heavy flows, especially for a summer holiday week session. Our flows came in bunches today, with a large amount of real money buying of 2s and 10s early, then a very good fast money selling in the ten year sector as stocks made their first leg higher, and finally good real money buying of tens and bonds into the close. Tens broke decisively through the 5% level during the late buying spree, and we have to wonder if there was some short covering as day traders who got short on the back of equity market strength stopped out of positions late in the day. There certainly seemed to be some good late buying of ten year note futures into the close, and the contract went from being a big underperformer early to solid performer by day's end. Today's move higher was led by intermediates, and the 5 year in particular outperformed by over ½ bp today. Bond futures lagged by 3 - .4 bp on the day, as off the run tens also traded well on the yield curve. Monday's yield changes were roughly as follows:

2 years: -2.2 bp 4.85%

5 years: -4.0 bp 4.89%

10 years: -3.7 bp 4.99%

30 years: -2.9 bp 5.09%

[j_cheung]

US TREASURIES

Treasuries continued to rally on the heels of Friday's strength, and today's move came despite a stronger than expected national ISM report, and a solid equity rally. While equities moved higher, though, ABX prices did not, suggesting that last week's late weakness was not just about aggressive month-end selling. Today's price action makes us more confident in our view that market positioning is balanced, and that there might even be a short base developing up against the 5% level in tens. Overall market volumes were light today, with just 820k ten year note futures trading, but we saw surprisingly heavy flows, especially for a summer holiday week session. Our flows came in bunches today, with a large amount of real money buying of 2s and 10s early, then a very good fast money selling in the ten year sector as stocks made their first leg higher, and finally good real money buying of tens and bonds into the close. Tens broke decisively through the 5% level during the late buying spree, and we have to wonder if there was some short covering as day traders who got short on the back of equity market strength stopped out of positions late in the day. There certainly seemed to be some good late buying of ten year note futures into the close, and the contract went from being a big underperformer early to solid performer by day's end. Today's move higher was led by intermediates, and the 5 year in particular outperformed by over ½ bp today. Bond futures lagged by 3 - .4 bp on the day, as off the run tens also traded well on the yield curve. Monday's yield changes were roughly as follows:

2 years: -2.2 bp 4.85%

5 years: -4.0 bp 4.89%

10 years: -3.7 bp 4.99%

30 years: -2.9 bp 5.09%

Dr. Naam,

But doesn't this reflect the slowdown is here & market now points towards a gradual pick-up later on this year & naturally next (being an US election year, '08 Olympics, 10 & beyond trading above 5%, etc. etc.). All pointing towards possible a bear for bonds in general?

[Naam]

But doesn't this reflect the slowdown is here & market now points towards a gradual pick-up later on this year & naturally next (being an US election year, '08 Olympics, 10 & beyond trading above 5%, etc. etc.). All pointing towards possible a bear for bonds in general?

it depends at what bonds you are looking at. globally HY-bonds got hit (average minus 1-2%) by risk aversion triggered by the subprime scandal in the U.S. and as far as Treasuries are concerned the jury is still deliberating whether market rates will go up or down.

[j_cheung]

But doesn't this reflect the slowdown is here & market now points towards a gradual pick-up later on this year & naturally next (being an US election year, '08 Olympics, 10 & beyond trading above 5%, etc. etc.). All pointing towards possible a bear for bonds in general?

it depends at what bonds you are looking at. globally HY-bonds got hit (average minus 1-2%) by risk aversion triggered by the subprime scandal in the U.S. and as far as Treasuries are concerned the jury is still deliberating whether market rates will go up or down.

I guess my earlier remark was more for the USD market but what about higher yielding ones? Looks like the only these days that are in the mid to high teens are denominated in TRY ...

[Naam]

I guess my earlier remark was more for the USD market but what about higher yielding ones? Looks like the only these days that are in the mid to high teens are denominated in TRY ...

HY currencies are still strong. look at TRY breaking again the 1.30 brick wall vs. USD. the same goes for BRL and ISK. one caveat though... i am still in these currencies but sit on a comfortable profit of 15-30%. entering now i'd consider quite daring.

[sonicdragon]

Vic, it's an interesting debate. I certainly agree that it's wrong to say that a stong currency equates to a stong economy. I would say that a *stable* currency is more conducive to a strong economy. I agree with you about the US consumer, but I think you overestimate the impact of a low oil price on inflation in the US. Of course it will help, but another driver of inflation will be the increasing price of imports as the $ continues to fall against the yuan. And how will the US continue to service it's debts in a recessionary environment ? The national debt has trippled since the last deep recession. In the scenario we are talking about, the biggest buyers of US treasuries - foreign central banks, in particular the chinese and japanese - will not be in a position to continue doing so. This will lead to higher long rates, creating a bigger pinch on the US economy.

Sonic, I don't have too much time, but I will try and answer your queries. First of all a weak dollar is very productive for the U.S. economy right now, but it would depend on what country one refers to as if a weaker currency or a stable currency is more conducive to a strong economy. If oil prices were to go to $25/bbl then yes it would be a major impact on keeping inflation down, as for the dollar getting weaker than it is right now, this is a pretty unlikely scenario a more likely scenario is that the dollar will more or less maintain its current valuations with a slight upside bais until a new president is in office(Jan. 09) and at that time the U.S. will likely have pared back its involvment in Iraq and the dollar will begin a slow upward move that will likely maintain for years to come. Part of the reason for this move will be due to a reversal of an artificial element which has downward pressure on the dollar for many years now, and this coupled with higher interest rates in the U.S. and leveling the playing field with China(China currently is basically getting a pass from world outcry and sanctions for using prison labor and poluting the planet at will, this won't last much longer) will begin to adress the trade defeceits, as for the budget defeceit this will become a surplus within 3 years do to increasing tax receipts in the U.S.. When this "pinch" happens to the U.S. economy, then of course the U.S. consumer will be in the drivers seat and by lower consumption of imports they will in one fell swoop both help to lower the remaining trade defeiciets and keep inflation under control. Of course all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe) and oil went to $150/bbl, most of the U.S. bashers out there forget that the U.S. has coal reserves within its borders that could last for more than 300 years and during a time of extreme crisis I think that EPA regulations will go out the window! I have a couple of golf tournaments that I am playing in over the next few days so I have to go now, to all the Yanks out there have a great 4th of July!

Vic, leaving aside the catastrophe scenario and staying with the global recession picture, I can't see how you think that tax receipts will increase. Recession=consumption down; business activity/profitability down = much lower tax receipts = worsenning budget deficit.

Sonic, when is a global recession not a catastrophe?

Well, you were talking about "all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe)" so that's the catastrophe (or lack thereof) I was talking about. A global recession, while certainly not desirable and damaging to many, as just a part of the economic cycle.

I think somewhere in one of my past posts I refered to the froth and excess around the world in some of the equity markets and tongue and cheek said that the coming chinese meltdown could be the tipping point to set off the worldwide recession that the doomsdayers have been waiting for, for decades now. It seems that you took this to mean that I think that a gobal recession is just around the corner. I apologize for my facietous comments in that prior post, but I assure you that I most definately do not feel that a global recession is in the cards at this time, the chinese equity markets will have their colapse and this will have some fallout (most notably in S.E.Asia), but this will not trigger a worldwide recession. Tax receipts in the U.S. for 2005 were far greater than expected and the projected deficiet was much higher than the actual deficiet, this played out again for 2006 tax receipts exept that the margin was even greater. Tax receipts for 2007 will whittle down the budget deficiets once again, and with the drawdown of troops in Iraq and public pressure on Congress to lower spending ( do away with earmarks, and perhaps actually pass a balanced budget amendment) the next president of the U.S. will likely have a balanced budget if not a small surplus laid in his lap. There is a very strong dialouge going on in the U.S. about the bad trade agreements that the U.S. has entered into and many of these will be cancelled in the next term (NAFTA being the first one to go) and if the Democrats remain a majority in the Congress and claim the Presidency then you can be assured that the U.S. will be far tougher in dealing with China. Chinas' days of enjoying a free pass on things like prison-slave-child labor, polution and copyright infringement to name a few will come to an abrupt halt. This of course will hurt many multinational U.S. firms, but I don't think that the Democrats really care too much for U.S. companies that have been moving U.S. jobs overseas. With the strong language that the FED came out with on inflation(actually lack there of) in their meeting last week, the bond market here has gone crazy and the rates have fallen every day since that meeting and as a result the dollar fell to multi year lows against the GBP and Aussie$ today. I still feel that the dollar has basically bottomed, but we will be in this trough area for many months to come before the dollar starts appreciating, and the dollar will not make substantial appreciation until the U.S. begins to make large troop reductions in Iraq. Once again happy 4th of July to all the yanks out there!

Haha, so you unwittingly drew me in to this ?

I also see a global recession as improbable, but I never discard such events as impossble.

In your scenario for the economy I think you are relying on a confluence of a lot of unlikely events. Regrettably I think we just have to just agree to disagree, but FWIW I don't feel the democrats will get tough on china (except with lip service), the budget deficit is already running away and can't easily be reigned-in except in a scenario of either a continued economic expansion, or drastic cuts in spending. Even if we get a balanced budget or a small surplus there still exists an enormous public debt that must be serviced.

Regarding the $, I can agree with you insofar as I see the greenback not falling much more against the euro and pound, but I believe it is in for a sustained fall against the yen and yuan, which will be beneficial for the US and global economy in the long run.

And finally getting back to what this thread was about, the baht, I believe that asian currencies including the baht will feel continued upward pressure, tending to move in line with a strengthening yuan. For thailand this will be tempered by political uncertainties

[VegasVic]

Vic, it's an interesting debate. I certainly agree that it's wrong to say that a stong currency equates to a stong economy. I would say that a *stable* currency is more conducive to a strong economy. I agree with you about the US consumer, but I think you overestimate the impact of a low oil price on inflation in the US. Of course it will help, but another driver of inflation will be the increasing price of imports as the $ continues to fall against the yuan. And how will the US continue to service it's debts in a recessionary environment ? The national debt has trippled since the last deep recession. In the scenario we are talking about, the biggest buyers of US treasuries - foreign central banks, in particular the chinese and japanese - will not be in a position to continue doing so. This will lead to higher long rates, creating a bigger pinch on the US economy.

Sonic, I don't have too much time, but I will try and answer your queries. First of all a weak dollar is very productive for the U.S. economy right now, but it would depend on what country one refers to as if a weaker currency or a stable currency is more conducive to a strong economy. If oil prices were to go to $25/bbl then yes it would be a major impact on keeping inflation down, as for the dollar getting weaker than it is right now, this is a pretty unlikely scenario a more likely scenario is that the dollar will more or less maintain its current valuations with a slight upside bais until a new president is in office(Jan. 09) and at that time the U.S. will likely have pared back its involvment in Iraq and the dollar will begin a slow upward move that will likely maintain for years to come. Part of the reason for this move will be due to a reversal of an artificial element which has downward pressure on the dollar for many years now, and this coupled with higher interest rates in the U.S. and leveling the playing field with China(China currently is basically getting a pass from world outcry and sanctions for using prison labor and poluting the planet at will, this won't last much longer) will begin to adress the trade defeceits, as for the budget defeceit this will become a surplus within 3 years do to increasing tax receipts in the U.S.. When this "pinch" happens to the U.S. economy, then of course the U.S. consumer will be in the drivers seat and by lower consumption of imports they will in one fell swoop both help to lower the remaining trade defeiciets and keep inflation under control. Of course all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe) and oil went to $150/bbl, most of the U.S. bashers out there forget that the U.S. has coal reserves within its borders that could last for more than 300 years and during a time of extreme crisis I think that EPA regulations will go out the window! I have a couple of golf tournaments that I am playing in over the next few days so I have to go now, to all the Yanks out there have a great 4th of July!

Vic, leaving aside the catastrophe scenario and staying with the global recession picture, I can't see how you think that tax receipts will increase. Recession=consumption down; business activity/profitability down = much lower tax receipts = worsenning budget deficit.

Sonic, when is a global recession not a catastrophe?

Well, you were talking about "all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe)" so that's the catastrophe (or lack thereof) I was talking about. A global recession, while certainly not desirable and damaging to many, as just a part of the economic cycle.

I think somewhere in one of my past posts I refered to the froth and excess around the world in some of the equity markets and tongue and cheek said that the coming chinese meltdown could be the tipping point to set off the worldwide recession that the doomsdayers have been waiting for, for decades now. It seems that you took this to mean that I think that a gobal recession is just around the corner. I apologize for my facietous comments in that prior post, but I assure you that I most definately do not feel that a global recession is in the cards at this time, the chinese equity markets will have their colapse and this will have some fallout (most notably in S.E.Asia), but this will not trigger a worldwide recession. Tax receipts in the U.S. for 2005 were far greater than expected and the projected deficiet was much higher than the actual deficiet, this played out again for 2006 tax receipts exept that the margin was even greater. Tax receipts for 2007 will whittle down the budget deficiets once again, and with the drawdown of troops in Iraq and public pressure on Congress to lower spending ( do away with earmarks, and perhaps actually pass a balanced budget amendment) the next president of the U.S. will likely have a balanced budget if not a small surplus laid in his lap. There is a very strong dialouge going on in the U.S. about the bad trade agreements that the U.S. has entered into and many of these will be cancelled in the next term (NAFTA being the first one to go) and if the Democrats remain a majority in the Congress and claim the Presidency then you can be assured that the U.S. will be far tougher in dealing with China. Chinas' days of enjoying a free pass on things like prison-slave-child labor, polution and copyright infringement to name a few will come to an abrupt halt. This of course will hurt many multinational U.S. firms, but I don't think that the Democrats really care too much for U.S. companies that have been moving U.S. jobs overseas. With the strong language that the FED came out with on inflation(actually lack there of) in their meeting last week, the bond market here has gone crazy and the rates have fallen every day since that meeting and as a result the dollar fell to multi year lows against the GBP and Aussie$ today. I still feel that the dollar has basically bottomed, but we will be in this trough area for many months to come before the dollar starts appreciating, and the dollar will not make substantial appreciation until the U.S. begins to make large troop reductions in Iraq. Once again happy 4th of July to all the yanks out there!

Haha, so you unwittingly drew me in to this ?

I also see a global recession as improbable, but I never discard such events as impossble.

In your scenario for the economy I think you are relying on a confluence of a lot of unlikely events. Regrettably I think we just have to just agree to disagree, but FWIW I don't feel the democrats will get tough on china (except with lip service), the budget deficit is already running away and can't easily be reigned-in except in a scenario of either a continued economic expansion, or drastic cuts in spending. Even if we get a balanced budget or a small surplus there still exists an enormous public debt that must be serviced.

Regarding the $, I can agree with you insofar as I see the greenback not falling much more against the euro and pound, but I believe it is in for a sustained fall against the yen and yuan, which will be beneficial for the US and global economy in the long run.

And finally getting back to what this thread was about, the baht, I believe that asian currencies including the baht will feel continued upward pressure, tending to move in line with a strengthening yuan. For thailand this will be tempered by political uncertainties

Sorry sonic I didn't mean to unwittingly draw you into this! I do agree that the Thai Baht will remain strong until the low interest rate, easy money stops flowing out of Japan and into the hands of the hedge funds and currency speculators to throw around in China, Thailand and elsewhere in S.E.Asia to make a quick buck or until the chinese equity market finally crashes (my bet is this will occur first). By the way the budget deficiet has been shrinking since 2005(mostly due to increased tax revenues and not fiscal restraint), not running away as you put it and most of those "confluence of events" are likely occur, the toughest of which of course will be to get congress to limit spending. I do have a question for you however, the TV folks emailed me earlier today about a forum on the strong Thai Baht on the Thailand forum section so I checked it out and when I corrected a posters misguided notion that the "U.S. had sold all of its gold reserve and how was it going to back the dollar now",(of course the U.S. still has its gold reserve and the dollar has been off the gold standard since 1971) my posts were deleted by moderator astral. I was wondering is this common on TV, or is it something to do with the current military dictatorship over there. I have always been very respectful of the royal family in particular and Thailand in general and don't use profane language in my posts, so I thought that perhaps this is censorship forced on TV by the military regime over there. I am so use to the free exchange of ideas that we have over in the states that sometimes I take for granted the freedoms that we have over here, anyway I look forward to your reply and toward future discussions.

[tijnebijn]

Vegas , sometimes TV works in mysterious ways . I expect they assumed your posts were irrelevant to thailand and the topic.

Sometimes they delete these posts to let the original topic get forward . It is just the way it works .

[sonicdragon]

Vic, it's an interesting debate. I certainly agree that it's wrong to say that a stong currency equates to a stong economy. I would say that a *stable* currency is more conducive to a strong economy. I agree with you about the US consumer, but I think you overestimate the impact of a low oil price on inflation in the US. Of course it will help, but another driver of inflation will be the increasing price of imports as the $ continues to fall against the yuan. And how will the US continue to service it's debts in a recessionary environment ? The national debt has trippled since the last deep recession. In the scenario we are talking about, the biggest buyers of US treasuries - foreign central banks, in particular the chinese and japanese - will not be in a position to continue doing so. This will lead to higher long rates, creating a bigger pinch on the US economy.

Sonic, I don't have too much time, but I will try and answer your queries. First of all a weak dollar is very productive for the U.S. economy right now, but it would depend on what country one refers to as if a weaker currency or a stable currency is more conducive to a strong economy. If oil prices were to go to $25/bbl then yes it would be a major impact on keeping inflation down, as for the dollar getting weaker than it is right now, this is a pretty unlikely scenario a more likely scenario is that the dollar will more or less maintain its current valuations with a slight upside bais until a new president is in office(Jan. 09) and at that time the U.S. will likely have pared back its involvment in Iraq and the dollar will begin a slow upward move that will likely maintain for years to come. Part of the reason for this move will be due to a reversal of an artificial element which has downward pressure on the dollar for many years now, and this coupled with higher interest rates in the U.S. and leveling the playing field with China(China currently is basically getting a pass from world outcry and sanctions for using prison labor and poluting the planet at will, this won't last much longer) will begin to adress the trade defeceits, as for the budget defeceit this will become a surplus within 3 years do to increasing tax receipts in the U.S.. When this "pinch" happens to the U.S. economy, then of course the U.S. consumer will be in the drivers seat and by lower consumption of imports they will in one fell swoop both help to lower the remaining trade defeiciets and keep inflation under control. Of course all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe) and oil went to $150/bbl, most of the U.S. bashers out there forget that the U.S. has coal reserves within its borders that could last for more than 300 years and during a time of extreme crisis I think that EPA regulations will go out the window! I have a couple of golf tournaments that I am playing in over the next few days so I have to go now, to all the Yanks out there have a great 4th of July!

Vic, leaving aside the catastrophe scenario and staying with the global recession picture, I can't see how you think that tax receipts will increase. Recession=consumption down; business activity/profitability down = much lower tax receipts = worsenning budget deficit.

Sonic, when is a global recession not a catastrophe?

Well, you were talking about "all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe)" so that's the catastrophe (or lack thereof) I was talking about. A global recession, while certainly not desirable and damaging to many, as just a part of the economic cycle.

I think somewhere in one of my past posts I refered to the froth and excess around the world in some of the equity markets and tongue and cheek said that the coming chinese meltdown could be the tipping point to set off the worldwide recession that the doomsdayers have been waiting for, for decades now. It seems that you took this to mean that I think that a gobal recession is just around the corner. I apologize for my facietous comments in that prior post, but I assure you that I most definately do not feel that a global recession is in the cards at this time, the chinese equity markets will have their colapse and this will have some fallout (most notably in S.E.Asia), but this will not trigger a worldwide recession. Tax receipts in the U.S. for 2005 were far greater than expected and the projected deficiet was much higher than the actual deficiet, this played out again for 2006 tax receipts exept that the margin was even greater. Tax receipts for 2007 will whittle down the budget deficiets once again, and with the drawdown of troops in Iraq and public pressure on Congress to lower spending ( do away with earmarks, and perhaps actually pass a balanced budget amendment) the next president of the U.S. will likely have a balanced budget if not a small surplus laid in his lap. There is a very strong dialouge going on in the U.S. about the bad trade agreements that the U.S. has entered into and many of these will be cancelled in the next term (NAFTA being the first one to go) and if the Democrats remain a majority in the Congress and claim the Presidency then you can be assured that the U.S. will be far tougher in dealing with China. Chinas' days of enjoying a free pass on things like prison-slave-child labor, polution and copyright infringement to name a few will come to an abrupt halt. This of course will hurt many multinational U.S. firms, but I don't think that the Democrats really care too much for U.S. companies that have been moving U.S. jobs overseas. With the strong language that the FED came out with on inflation(actually lack there of) in their meeting last week, the bond market here has gone crazy and the rates have fallen every day since that meeting and as a result the dollar fell to multi year lows against the GBP and Aussie$ today. I still feel that the dollar has basically bottomed, but we will be in this trough area for many months to come before the dollar starts appreciating, and the dollar will not make substantial appreciation until the U.S. begins to make large troop reductions in Iraq. Once again happy 4th of July to all the yanks out there!

Haha, so you unwittingly drew me in to this ?

I also see a global recession as improbable, but I never discard such events as impossble.

In your scenario for the economy I think you are relying on a confluence of a lot of unlikely events. Regrettably I think we just have to just agree to disagree, but FWIW I don't feel the democrats will get tough on china (except with lip service), the budget deficit is already running away and can't easily be reigned-in except in a scenario of either a continued economic expansion, or drastic cuts in spending. Even if we get a balanced budget or a small surplus there still exists an enormous public debt that must be serviced.

Regarding the $, I can agree with you insofar as I see the greenback not falling much more against the euro and pound, but I believe it is in for a sustained fall against the yen and yuan, which will be beneficial for the US and global economy in the long run.

And finally getting back to what this thread was about, the baht, I believe that asian currencies including the baht will feel continued upward pressure, tending to move in line with a strengthening yuan. For thailand this will be tempered by political uncertainties

Sorry sonic I didn't mean to unwittingly draw you into this! I do agree that the Thai Baht will remain strong until the low interest rate, easy money stops flowing out of Japan and into the hands of the hedge funds and currency speculators to throw around in China, Thailand and elsewhere in S.E.Asia to make a quick buck or until the chinese equity market finally crashes (my bet is this will occur first). By the way the budget deficiet has been shrinking since 2005(mostly due to increased tax revenues and not fiscal restraint), not running away as you put it and most of those "confluence of events" are likely occur, the toughest of which of course will be to get congress to limit spending. I do have a question for you however, the TV folks emailed me earlier today about a forum on the strong Thai Baht on the Thailand forum section so I checked it out and when I corrected a posters misguided notion that the "U.S. had sold all of its gold reserve and how was it going to back the dollar now",(of course the U.S. still has its gold reserve and the dollar has been off the gold standard since 1971) my posts were deleted by moderator astral. I was wondering is this common on TV, or is it something to do with the current military dictatorship over there. I have always been very respectful of the royal family in particular and Thailand in general and don't use profane language in my posts, so I thought that perhaps this is censorship forced on TV by the military regime over there. I am so use to the free exchange of ideas that we have over in the states that sometimes I take for granted the freedoms that we have over here, anyway I look forward to your reply and toward future discussions.

The budget deficit isn't really shrinking. It's getting larger at a slower pace than before. But it's still getting larger, meaning there is an ever larger amount of public debt to service.

About gold reserves, it's common practice for central banks for lend out their gold reserves, which are then sold in the open market (or rather the futures market) and this is why many gold bugs point to central bank short covering as a bullish factor. Or maybe he/she was talking about current reserves being below the old reserve levels when the Bretton Woods Agreement ended.

I really can't comment on moderation issues - it's a subject not allowed under the forum rules, but if you PM me I don't mind chatting to you more openly.

[aznyron]

WOW now that I read all the post submitted to this topic I did not realize how dumb I am about finance and buying and selling money and US economy and trade defiects and congress spending sprees and china yuan but in all truth I can smell a scam and the scam is the thai baht Now I will give you readers my defination of what going on the Thai banks as well as the goverment are proping up the thai baht and buying USD and low price when the timing is right for them they will crash the thai baht and buy it back at a rate above 40 to 1 but first they must bankrupt all thos bars in Pattaya & Phuket and send all those BG back home to slave in some factory for 100 baht a day since they are not getting a piece of the action now all you economist reading my post how is it with a coup a tsunami a big drop in tourism

adminstration that makes rules to chase away foriegn investors with there coocoo ideas and laws 51% ownership by a Thai national and adminstration that can not control it people that they still have martial law and sensor what the public should hear now why should the thai baht be 33.85 to 1 USD as of noon july 4 at siam bank in udon thani explain that to me thank you thaivisa for letting me vent my anger & frustration I am getting hammered in currency transfer

[VegasVic]

Vegas , sometimes TV works in mysterious ways . I expect they assumed your posts were irrelevant to thailand and the topic.

Sometimes they delete these posts to let the original topic get forward . It is just the way it works .

First let me say that the Thai baht is volitile and will remain so for a while. Now that I am firmly on topic, I just want to thank you for your reply tijnebijn, I have followed and engaged in many TV forums and many of those had multiple off topic posts and I have never seen any deleted. One of my posts was trying to inform a terribly misinformed individual about the U.S. currency and that the gold standard has not been in effect since 1971 and the other one was a post agreeing with what was already posted on the forum by other posters, both posts had to due with currencies and and the political climate that could effect the Thai baht as well as the dollar and yuan. Apparently, sometimes the truth will not set you free but get you censored.

[VegasVic]

Vic, it's an interesting debate. I certainly agree that it's wrong to say that a stong currency equates to a stong economy. I would say that a *stable* currency is more conducive to a strong economy. I agree with you about the US consumer, but I think you overestimate the impact of a low oil price on inflation in the US. Of course it will help, but another driver of inflation will be the increasing price of imports as the $ continues to fall against the yuan. And how will the US continue to service it's debts in a recessionary environment ? The national debt has trippled since the last deep recession. In the scenario we are talking about, the biggest buyers of US treasuries - foreign central banks, in particular the chinese and japanese - will not be in a position to continue doing so. This will lead to higher long rates, creating a bigger pinch on the US economy.

Sonic, I don't have too much time, but I will try and answer your queries. First of all a weak dollar is very productive for the U.S. economy right now, but it would depend on what country one refers to as if a weaker currency or a stable currency is more conducive to a strong economy. If oil prices were to go to $25/bbl then yes it would be a major impact on keeping inflation down, as for the dollar getting weaker than it is right now, this is a pretty unlikely scenario a more likely scenario is that the dollar will more or less maintain its current valuations with a slight upside bais until a new president is in office(Jan. 09) and at that time the U.S. will likely have pared back its involvment in Iraq and the dollar will begin a slow upward move that will likely maintain for years to come. Part of the reason for this move will be due to a reversal of an artificial element which has downward pressure on the dollar for many years now, and this coupled with higher interest rates in the U.S. and leveling the playing field with China(China currently is basically getting a pass from world outcry and sanctions for using prison labor and poluting the planet at will, this won't last much longer) will begin to adress the trade defeceits, as for the budget defeceit this will become a surplus within 3 years do to increasing tax receipts in the U.S.. When this "pinch" happens to the U.S. economy, then of course the U.S. consumer will be in the drivers seat and by lower consumption of imports they will in one fell swoop both help to lower the remaining trade defeiciets and keep inflation under control. Of course all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe) and oil went to $150/bbl, most of the U.S. bashers out there forget that the U.S. has coal reserves within its borders that could last for more than 300 years and during a time of extreme crisis I think that EPA regulations will go out the window! I have a couple of golf tournaments that I am playing in over the next few days so I have to go now, to all the Yanks out there have a great 4th of July!

Vic, leaving aside the catastrophe scenario and staying with the global recession picture, I can't see how you think that tax receipts will increase. Recession=consumption down; business activity/profitability down = much lower tax receipts = worsenning budget deficit.

Sonic, when is a global recession not a catastrophe?

Well, you were talking about "all bets are off if something happens like a nuke going off in the middle east, but even if that were to occur(or a similiar catastrophe)" so that's the catastrophe (or lack thereof) I was talking about. A global recession, while certainly not desirable and damaging to many, as just a part of the economic cycle.

I think somewhere in one of my past posts I refered to the froth and excess around the world in some of the equity markets and tongue and cheek said that the coming chinese meltdown could be the tipping point to set off the worldwide recession that the doomsdayers have been waiting for, for decades now. It seems that you took this to mean that I think that a gobal recession is just around the corner. I apologize for my facietous comments in that prior post, but I assure you that I most definately do not feel that a global recession is in the cards at this time, the chinese equity markets will have their colapse and this will have some fallout (most notably in S.E.Asia), but this will not trigger a worldwide recession. Tax receipts in the U.S. for 2005 were far greater than expected and the projected deficiet was much higher than the actual deficiet, this played out again for 2006 tax receipts exept that the margin was even greater. Tax receipts for 2007 will whittle down the budget deficiets once again, and with the drawdown of troops in Iraq and public pressure on Congress to lower spending ( do away with earmarks, and perhaps actually pass a balanced budget amendment) the next president of the U.S. will likely have a balanced budget if not a small surplus laid in his lap. There is a very strong dialouge going on in the U.S. about the bad trade agreements that the U.S. has entered into and many of these will be cancelled in the next term (NAFTA being the first one to go) and if the Democrats remain a majority in the Congress and claim the Presidency then you can be assured that the U.S. will be far tougher in dealing with China. Chinas' days of enjoying a free pass on things like prison-slave-child labor, polution and copyright infringement to name a few will come to an abrupt halt. This of course will hurt many multinational U.S. firms, but I don't think that the Democrats really care too much for U.S. companies that have been moving U.S. jobs overseas. With the strong language that the FED came out with on inflation(actually lack there of) in their meeting last week, the bond market here has gone crazy and the rates have fallen every day since that meeting and as a result the dollar fell to multi year lows against the GBP and Aussie$ today. I still feel that the dollar has basically bottomed, but we will be in this trough area for many months to come before the dollar starts appreciating, and the dollar will not make substantial appreciation until the U.S. begins to make large troop reductions in Iraq. Once again happy 4th of July to all the yanks out there!

Haha, so you unwittingly drew me in to this ?

I also see a global recession as improbable, but I never discard such events as impossble.

In your scenario for the economy I think you are relying on a confluence of a lot of unlikely events. Regrettably I think we just have to just agree to disagree, but FWIW I don't feel the democrats will get tough on china (except with lip service), the budget deficit is already running away and can't easily be reigned-in except in a scenario of either a continued economic expansion, or drastic cuts in spending. Even if we get a balanced budget or a small surplus there still exists an enormous public debt that must be serviced.

Regarding the $, I can agree with you insofar as I see the greenback not falling much more against the euro and pound, but I believe it is in for a sustained fall against the yen and yuan, which will be beneficial for the US and global economy in the long run.

And finally getting back to what this thread was about, the baht, I believe that asian currencies including the baht will feel continued upward pressure, tending to move in line with a strengthening yuan. For thailand this will be tempered by political uncertainties

Sorry sonic I didn't mean to unwittingly draw you into this! I do agree that the Thai Baht will remain strong until the low interest rate, easy money stops flowing out of Japan and into the hands of the hedge funds and currency speculators to throw around in China, Thailand and elsewhere in S.E.Asia to make a quick buck or until the chinese equity market finally crashes (my bet is this will occur first). By the way the budget deficiet has been shrinking since 2005(mostly due to increased tax revenues and not fiscal restraint), not running away as you put it and most of those "confluence of events" are likely occur, the toughest of which of course will be to get congress to limit spending. I do have a question for you however, the TV folks emailed me earlier today about a forum on the strong Thai Baht on the Thailand forum section so I checked it out and when I corrected a posters misguided notion that the "U.S. had sold all of its gold reserve and how was it going to back the dollar now",(of course the U.S. still has its gold reserve and the dollar has been off the gold standard since 1971) my posts were deleted by moderator astral. I was wondering is this common on TV, or is it something to do with the current military dictatorship over there. I have always been very respectful of the royal family in particular and Thailand in general and don't use profane language in my posts, so I thought that perhaps this is censorship forced on TV by the military regime over there. I am so use to the free exchange of ideas that we have over in the states that sometimes I take for granted the freedoms that we have over here, anyway I look forward to your reply and toward future discussions.

The budget deficit isn't really shrinking. It's getting larger at a slower pace than before. But it's still getting larger, meaning there is an ever larger amount of public debt to service.

About gold reserves, it's common practice for central banks for lend out their gold reserves, which are then sold in the open market (or rather the futures market) and this is why many gold bugs point to central bank short covering as a bullish factor. Or maybe he/she was talking about current reserves being below the old reserve levels when the Bretton Woods Agreement ended.

I really can't comment on moderation issues - it's a subject not allowed under the forum rules, but if you PM me I don't mind chatting to you more openly.

The poster in guestion had been led to believe that the U.S. had sold all of their gold reserves(recently) and now that the dollar didn't have any gold backing it the dollar would colapse. The U.S. as you know has been off the gold reserve since 1971 and the U.S. gold reserve has remained static for the years since then. If the U.S. were to begin selling gold on a large scale then it would have impact on the baht as well as the rest of the worlds currencies so the post wasn't much off topic.

[VegasVic]

WOW now that I read all the post submitted to this topic I did not realize how dumb I am about finance and buying and selling money and US economy and trade defiects and congress spending sprees and china yuan but in all truth I can smell a scam and the scam is the thai baht Now I will give you readers my defination of what going on the Thai banks as well as the goverment are proping up the thai baht and buying USD and low price when the timing is right for them they will crash the thai baht and buy it back at a rate above 40 to 1 but first they must bankrupt all thos bars in Pattaya & Phuket and send all those BG back home to slave in some factory for 100 baht a day since they are not getting a piece of the action now all you economist reading my post how is it with a coup a tsunami a big drop in tourism

adminstration that makes rules to chase away foriegn investors with there coocoo ideas and laws 51% ownership by a Thai national and adminstration that can not control it people that they still have martial law and sensor what the public should hear now why should the thai baht be 33.85 to 1 USD as of noon july 4 at siam bank in udon thani explain that to me thank you thaivisa for letting me vent my anger & frustration I am getting hammered in currency transfer

aznyron, I completely understand your angst, however your frustration is slightly misplaced. If the BOT were not there to help curb the rise of the baht your recent exchange would have been for less than 32bht/dollar as it is currently on the world exchange. The forces at work to artificially lift the SET as well as the baht, are basically the same forces that are at work to lift the Shanghai composite to astronomical and unsustainable levels. When the Shanghai exchange has their crash or correcrion or whatever you choose to call it then you will begin to see some of the air let out of the baht and the SET. Thats the good news for Thailand and for you exchanging dollars for baht in Thailand, the bad news for you is that the FED seems to be in a holding pattern and will likely not increase interest rates until early next year (because inflation is low in the states and the sub prime crisis is still in full swing). As the U.S. begins to draw down troops and when the FED increases interest rates, the dollar will begin to strenghten and this in turn will help your currency exchanges, help Thai exports to the U.S. and will aide in increasing tourisim to Thailand. In regards to my friend Sonic dragon, I think that he is getting the U.S. national debt confused with the budget deficit. The budget deficit has indeed been shrinking every year since 2004, but there still is a deficit so the national debt does continue to climb each year albeit by a lesser ammount each year.

[sonicdragon]

In regards to my friend Sonic dragon, I think that he is getting the U.S. national debt confused with the budget deficit. The budget deficit has indeed been shrinking every year since 2004, but there still is a deficit so the national debt does continue to climb each year albeit by a lesser ammount each year.

I am certainly not confused. The national/government debt is simply the effect of cummulative budget deficits. That the annual deficit is getting smaller is obvously better than it not getting bigger, but it is still BAD because it is not a surplus and consequently the debt (and the interest on it) continues to grow,

[sonicdragon]

WOW now that I read all the post submitted to this topic I did not realize how dumb I am about finance and buying and selling money and US economy and trade defiects and congress spending sprees and china yuan but in all truth I can smell a scam and the scam is the thai baht Now I will give you readers my defination of what going on the Thai banks as well as the goverment are proping up the thai baht and buying USD and low price when the timing is right for them they will crash the thai baht and buy it back at a rate above 40 to 1 but first they must bankrupt all thos bars in Pattaya & Phuket and send all those BG back home to slave in some factory for 100 baht a day since they are not getting a piece of the action now all you economist reading my post how is it with a coup a tsunami a big drop in tourism

adminstration that makes rules to chase away foriegn investors with there coocoo ideas and laws 51% ownership by a Thai national and adminstration that can not control it people that they still have martial law and sensor what the public should hear now why should the thai baht be 33.85 to 1 USD as of noon july 4 at siam bank in udon thani explain that to me thank you thaivisa for letting me vent my anger & frustration I am getting hammered in currency transfer

Not much time to reply in detail, although I would like to, but 2 things spring to mind - first, a rising tide lifts all boats - both general $ weakness and yuan strength are benefiting the baht (asian currencies will tend to move in sync with the yuan which is unequivocally strong against almost all currencies). Second, notwithstanding the change of regime, thailand does not look like a bad picture when compared with other developing SE Asian economies. All this could change of course in the event of political problems in thailand surrounding the forthcoming elections and/or a fallout from a collapse in the chinese equity market.

[binnsy]

UK Base rate will be raised tomorrow to 5.75%

[Carmine6]

In regards to my friend Sonic dragon, I think that he is getting the U.S. national debt confused with the budget deficit. The budget deficit has indeed been shrinking every year since 2004, but there still is a deficit so the national debt does continue to climb each year albeit by a lesser ammount each year.

I am certainly not confused. The national/government debt is simply the effect of cummulative budget deficits. That the annual deficit is getting smaller is obvously better than it not getting bigger, but it is still BAD because it is not a surplus and consequently the debt (and the interest on it) continues to grow,

Think he's reacting to your post 112 with this quote "The budget deficit isn't really shrinking. It's getting larger at a slower pace than before. But it's still getting larger, meaning there is an ever larger amount of public debt to service."