Thai restaurants and massage parlors, Amazon.... soon to open in Russia? 

I consider this a smart move for Thai Russian relations and geopolitical relations in general.  Thailand is a relatively small nation with a heavy dependence on tourism in particular.

 

I sometimes wonder if many posters ever stop to consider that one day, in the hopefully not too distant future, the Ukraine conflict will come to a close.

The western led proxy war and sanctions have ushered in a geopolitical realignment and the likely possibility of a new cold war.

 

It's a win for Thailand to remain relatively neutral. I see no need for the Thais to get bullied into choosing sides.

Edited April 3, 20233 yr by expat_4_life

Russia, China, North Korea, Thailand, Myanmar, Iran, thoughts in common............

5 hours ago, 2baht said:

What? No sanctions on the war mongering Czar Putin! They obviously condone what is happening to Ukraine!

No, they're just maintaining a "balanced stance"

Thailand is so lucky is has hot weather during the Russian winter.  The Russian couple I met yesterday told me they absolutely despise Thai people and especially Thai food.  

 

Thais will eventually be displaced out of Phuket, Krabi and other destinations by Russian refugees.

 

Oh, and by the way I enquired what visa the couple I met yesterday were on.  Ed visa, bought, under the table, from a language school in Chalong.  60K baht.  No study or class attendance required.  The guy told me this was the cheapest one they could find, other schools wanted north of 80K apparently.

 

Rivers of gold for the Language schools and the immigration office to look the other way.

Edited April 3, 20233 yr by Adumbration

30 minutes ago, LosLobo said:

I don't agree with your analysis of the data.

 

I would suggest that Thailand needs US trade more that other way around .

 

The US is Thailand's biggest trading partner .

 

The US has other third world trading partners closer to home in Mexico and South America, so I would suggest its trade agreement with Thailand is only a preferential one in Thailand's favour.

 

If together with other allies, the US imposed sanctions on Thailand, Russia/China, would not have the capacity to a absorb the loss of trade.

 

It's not only trade but economic and humanitarian aid which would amount to millions a year if not billions over time, perhaps Ukraine would be a more appreciative beneficiary.

 

US has been patient with Thailand's antics with coups democracy etc mainly because of the growing influence of China in the region.

 

China and its Belt and Road diplomacy had bankrupted a lot of countries recently and is a dangerous path to take.

 

Thailand has a bamboo ie flexible foreign policy which it has played for centuries but strain it too far and it will break.

 

Thailand's Top 25 Trading Partners 2021 (worldstopexports.com)

 

Good post, I'll respond when I get back home 

4 hours ago, BritScot said:

Think it's time the West dealt with Thailand which should of happened after WW2. If Thailand wants to get into bed with China and Russia they should learn there are consequences. Start with stopping all foreign aid, stop trade, confiscate all investments, property of all those involved in 2016 coup including the financiers! I love Thailand dearly but nothing will change till those running the country are brought down. 

And arrest exalted man same this.

1 hour ago, smedly said:

there are lines that should not be crossed, pretty sad you don't get it

Thai apologists have to always believe that Thailand/Thais are the best, always right, and superior to other countries.  This leads to some interesting rationalisations.

 

My favourite one recently was that Thais can sense whether a foreigner is good or bad instantly through appearance and body language.  So if a Thai is ever unpleasant to you, it is your fault as you are a bad person and the Thai has sensed this with their ESP.

 

It can be amusing, but, as you point out, also sad when topics like this come up.

1 hour ago, StayinThailand2much said:

There has been discussion in financial circles recently.

 

Last year, Saudi Arabia talked about pricing some of its oil exports in terms of the Chinese yuan.

Three days ago France too.

 

4 hours ago, BritScot said:

Think it's time the West dealt with Thailand which should of happened after WW2. If Thailand wants to get into bed with China and Russia they should learn there are consequences. Start with stopping all foreign aid, stop trade, confiscate all investments, property of all those involved in 2016 coup including the financiers! I love Thailand dearly but nothing will change till those running the country are brought down. 

I'm not defending Russia in the least but show me a country that doesn't trade with Russia at all.

2 hours ago, brucegoniners said:

No decent country should cooperate with this criminal nation.

What is a decent country? The countries who invaded Iraq on bogus claims?

48 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Oh, and by the way I enquired what visa the couple I met yesterday were on.  Ed visa, bought, under the table, from a language school in Chalong.  60K baht.  No study or class attendance required.  The guy told me this was the cheapest one they could find, other schools wanted north of 80K apparently.

 

Obviously they don't know about border runs

11 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

What is a decent country? The countries who invaded Iraq on bogus claims?

I love those "invade Iraq" comments! You don't know there was a UN resolution against Iraq based on persistent human rights violations, extrajudicial executions etc. by Hussein's government?

Seems like a lot of waffle to me. Trade and entrepreneurship? With all the barricades Thailand puts on foreign companies here?

Can't see many Thai companies wanting to open up in Russia either.

2 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Will Thailand ask Russia for submarines?

Will Thailand ask Russia for anti-air missiles for top of its government buildings?

19 minutes ago, JoseThailand said:

Obviously they don't know about border runs

I imagine the prospect of doing a border run with their 3 kids under age 10 every few months was not a workable option.  But sure....rivers of gold for the minivan drivers as well at the moment. Phuket roads are significantly more deadly now that they are back in force.  I was nearly killed by one last night at Thalang.

1 hour ago, smedly said:

but I did comment

Well why shouldn't you? This is a public forum, and commenting is what it is for, as long as it is understood that everyone is entitled to an opinion as long and it is within forum rules.

 

1 hour ago, JoseThailand said:

No, they're just maintaining a "balanced stance"

Fence sitting.

44 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

What is a decent country? The countries who invaded Iraq on bogus claims?

It is not often I agree with you, but you have got this one right.

22 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

I imagine the prospect of doing a border run with their 3 kids under age 10 every few months was not a workable option.  But sure....rivers of gold for the minivan drivers as well at the moment. Phuket roads are significantly more deadly now that they are back in force.  I was nearly killed by one last night at Thalang.

Kids under 10 don't need to border run

4 minutes ago, JoseThailand said:

Kids under 10 don't need to border run

Who takes care of them?

https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/asean-looking-to-dump-dollar-and-euro-media/

 

 

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is set to discuss dropping the US dollar, euro, yen and pound sterling from transactions and moving to settlements in local currencies, according to the news magazine Tempo.

I wonder if repatriating draft dodgers was discussed....

2 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Who takes care of them?

Surprise: mom and dad don't need to border run the same day

I wonder if they discussed "overstayers" ??

Immigration is going to be swamped with them soon if not already

3 hours ago, LosLobo said:

I don't agree with your analysis of the data.

 

I would suggest that Thailand needs US trade more that other way around .

 

The US is Thailand's biggest trading partner .

 

The US has other third world trading partners closer to home in Mexico and South America, so I would suggest its trade agreement with Thailand is only a preferential one in Thailand's favour.

 

If together with other allies, the US imposed sanctions on Thailand, Russia/China, would not have the capacity to a absorb the loss of trade.

 

It's not only trade but economic and humanitarian aid which would amount to millions a year if not billions over time, perhaps Ukraine would be a more appreciative beneficiary.

 

US has been patient with Thailand's antics with coups democracy etc mainly because of the growing influence of China in the region.

 

China and its Belt and Road diplomacy had bankrupted a lot of countries recently and is a dangerous path to take.

 

Thailand has a bamboo ie flexible foreign policy which it has played for centuries but strain it too far and it will break.

 

Thailand's Top 25 Trading Partners 2021 (worldstopexports.com)

 

Thailand's exports to NAFTA are indeed quite large but Thai exports to ASEAN are much larger and are growing because of the new RCEP trade group which includes Japan, Australia and China and others. 

 

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=743&language=ENG

 

At present, Thailand earns more revenue from exports to the US than the US earns from Thailand, almost 100% more. This imbalance has resulted in the US Fed labelling Thailand a currency manipulator, because of the resulting trade surplus. The reality is that the US desperately wants Thailand to import more goods from them and because they haven't, the label of currency manipulator has been hung around their collective necks - the following link describes this scenario in simple graphical terms.

 

https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

 

The term. "trading partner" is also a misnomer if it is used solely to refer to exports. Japan is by far the largest trading partner that Thailand has. "Trading partner" also includes investments by other countries and FDI, both of which place Japan in the number one position. The advent of the RCEP trade group will magnify all of these things. The following post explains further.

 

The US desire to maintain trading relations with Thailand is not so much about trade but about maintaining a presence in the region and to prevent Thailand from slipping further into China's grasp. As you correctly state, the US has plenty of other trading options in 3rd world countries, to its Southern border.

 

You then wrote, "If together with other allies, the US imposed sanctions on Thailand, Russia/China, would not have the capacity to absorb the loss of trade". I hope by this point you can see this is simply untrue and that Japan is the key partner, not China or Russia.

 

 

 

7 hours ago, BritScot said:

Think it's time the West dealt with Thailand which should of happened after WW2. If Thailand wants to get into bed with China and Russia they should learn there are consequences. Start with stopping all foreign aid, stop trade, confiscate all investments, property of all those involved in 2016 coup including the financiers! I love Thailand dearly but nothing will change till those running the country are brought down. 

It is none of your business. If you don't like how the country is run then leave.

Wasn't it not so long ago that the latest Bangkok governor was being praised for his relatively liberal attitude? That's who is responsible for this move, isn't it? Seems to me that China and Russia just keep taking one step after another in controlling Thailand. US diplomacy seems inept. This latest ambassador has seemed to be better than those after Kristie Kenney--and certainly better than the charge de affair who took care of things for a couple of years--but lately all I see are reports of him going jogging and talking about how great Thai-US relations are. There should be at least a diplomatic frown coming out of this latest move.

27 minutes ago, DaiHard said:

It is none of your business. If you don't like how the country is run then leave.

Thai relations with an expat's home country is his or her business. 

A deal with the Devil indeed. Not unlike the GOP.