Thai Baht May Hit 30 To The Us Dollar

[Mid]

Minister of Commerce, Mr. Krirk-krai Jirapaet (เกริกไกร จีระแพทย์) has affirmed that the current baht crisis is not at its critical level. He also indicates that a reduction of interest rates could not help improve the situation.

opps ....................

[LaoPo]

Minister of Commerce, Mr. Krirk-krai Jirapaet (เกริกไกร จีระแพทย์) has affirmed that the current baht crisis is not at its critical level. He also indicates that a reduction of interest rates could not help improve the situation.

opps ....................

Yes, it's absolutely hilarious to see what a MINISTER says on the same day the interest has been cut further.

Bloody unbelievable this Minister and the "Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 18 July 2007"

I wonder, do they never feel ashamed about themselves...is their no interaction or communication between the different Ministries and their infamous Public Relations ?

UN - BE - LIE - VA - BLE

LaoPo

[rank stranger]

Just showing that the average American has to pay US$ 1,30 NOWADAYS versus US$ 1,00 for the same product 10 years ago, that's all.

That's 30% inflation in 10 years.

And that's bad for people with a low income and people below the poverty line, in the US.

30% inflation over 10 years works out to an annual inflation rate of approximately 2.66%. That ain't bad and is only slightly higher than the Federal Reserve's goal of 2.0%.

[rayw]

Back to OP...

Live rates at 2007.07.13 22:37:33 UTC

1.00 GBP = 2.03451 USD

United Kingdom Pounds United States Dollars

1 GBP = 2.03451 USD 1 USD = 0.491520 GBP

1.00 GBP = 62.0178 THB

United Kingdom Pounds Thailand Baht

1 GBP = 62.0178 THB 1 THB = 0.0161244 GBP

1.00 USD = 30.4830 THB

United States Dollars Thailand Baht

1 USD = 30.4830 THB 1 THB = 0.0328052 USD

Friday the 13th!!!

Source: xe.com

Those rates for the Baht are totally wrong, in fact outrageously wrong.

No, they are not wrong, they are simply the international, or otherwise known as, offshore rates. Thailand has insulated itself from the real money market rates by the exchange controls. This does not make the international (offshore) rates "wrong", let alone "totally wrong", or even "outrageously wrong".

Personally, I would not touch the offshore rates with a bargepole, but they are there and that is that.

Yes I agree they are genuinely quoted rates and never said otherwise, but misleading would be the better word I should have used. They are the SELLING rates for Thai Baht by Western rip off banks and organisations NOT just offshore as they are very similar to rates quoted by main stream banks in USA and Europe. Or even worse if you look at the UK web site currency trader I pointed out to you where there was that really outragious rip off rate of under 60 Baht per £. Now please just go to these "offshore" sources and ask them for their rate for buying Thai Baht back (Cash and TT) and I will be surprised if they are not near or over 70 baht for each £ for example. Folk then compare these rip off selling Baht rates that you quote here of 61 and 62 Baht per £ to the rate they got last year for maybe selling Baht back to a western bank like at 74 or 75 Baht per £ and say wow what a rise in the Baht (or a big fall in the £). As I said totally misleading and leads folk to making the wrong conclusions.

The ONLY fair comparison is as I said the MIDDLE rate, or at least you should use more honest banking sources like we get in Thailand. Always bank note rates (cash ) will be worse by a bit as it is more expensive to manage forex cash tills, but in Thailand you can buy Baht CASH today for about 66.5 per £ or 32.88 per US$ ($50 and $100 bills). Typically in Thailand the difference between buying and selling Bank Notes is about 2% - 2.5% with no commission charged, and this a fair and honest trading mark up, in most Western countries this difference in buy and sell rates is typically about 14% to 18%, sorry but that cannot be justified by any honest organisation, as I keep saying it is criminal and a scam, even 5% is way too high.

So here are the genuine rates today for BUYING BAHT Exchanging CASH (these will vary during the day but usually not by that much) and for transferring funds via the banking system and having the conversion carried out here (TT Rate) and shown in brackets. ALWAYS REMEMBER CHANGE YOUR CURRENCY TO BAHT HERE IN THAILAND ONLY, DO NOT HELP FUND THE WESTERN THIEVES

UK Pound - 66.49725 (67.385)

Euro - 45.2265 (45.60

US$($50 -$100 bills) - 32.88 (33.4)

Can $ - 31.03875 (31.58375)

Aud $ - 28.40750 (28.815)

But these are the onshore rates that require you to be here!

Also, noticed that the money market rate, did indeed go 29.95 to the USD

No no no. They are rip off selling rates for Thai Baht and quoting them causes people to panic unnecessarily. The true money market rate was NEVER 29.95 that is a consumer tourist rate for sure as I said check the Financial times pages for money market true rates. As I keep saying you NEVER use those rates if you have any sense, bring with you your local currency in cash or Travellers cheques in your local currency and change it to Baht here of course. But do not buy US$ travellers cheques if they are not your local currency as you then suffer a rip off western currency exchange before you start and anyway the dollar will likely weaken before you cash them here much more than your own local currency if that is £, Euro, Can$ or AUS $ From the UK if you worry about bringing los of sterling cash then Sterling Travellers checks are the best way (though you have to pay some UK Bank commission on them) and change them here at a better rate than cash too :-)) DO NOT let the Uk Bank talk yo into taking US$ TCs they make more money by you doing that of course with the currency rate rip off scam and anyway the US$ is not exactly in demand at the moment !!.

Just what were they quoting on that site when the Baht was 70 to the £ I bet still way down about 64 !!!. As I said try and get their rate for buying Baht back and take the mid point for a true relative comparison of currencies.

Today true Baht rates are

US$ ($50-$100 Notes) 33.10 (TT rate 33.36)

UK Pound Sterling 67.40 (TT rate 68.288) - Much better than last weak showing the Baht has not strengthened any further generally, more like weakened against most currencies except the steadily collapsing US$ of course .

[rayw]

1. Unemployment is now lower in the U.S. and

2. inflation is still basically non existent,

1. Unemployment in the US:

Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate:

History 4.5% in Jun 2007 versus 4.6% in 2006

Change in Unemployment Level:

History +114,000 in Jun 2007

Unemployment Level:

History 7,001,000 for 2006

2. Inflation:

US$ 1 in 1997 has the same buying power as US$ 1.30 in 2007...

Thanks to US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Facts Sir Vic, facts.

LaoPo

The discussion was about a thread on thaivisa last year not in 1997! Inflation for the current year in the U.S. is running at less than 2%. These are the facts Mr. Po. You aren't a Michael Moore fan by any chance are you Po?

No Vic, I'm not; I am a realist.

Just showing that the average American has to pay US$ 1,30 NOWADAYS versus US$ 1,00 for the same product 10 years ago, that's all.

That's 30% inflation in 10 years.

And that's bad for people with a low income and people below the poverty line, in the US.

LaoPo

Here here LaoPo, someone who is also a realist These guys are either very silly head in the sand guys or clever but nasty rich don't care about any other bugger types. Either way not worth worrying about them.

I was a realist also in the old days of Thatcher in the UK when the Pound was under a lot of pressure and the economy bad with high inflation and rising unemployment too but I did not pretend it was not happening as like you say you have to be realistic if you have any common sense at all.

Seems that for some of these guys here the USA is infallible no matter what, really stupid and arrogant attitude IMHO. Anyone who says anything not positive about the USA is somehow a US knocker, which is just not true certainly in my case. I think the collapse of the US$ is highly undesirable for most of the world to be honest. And yes Bush HAS to be one of the main causes of this and certainly like most of past macho men (or women) leaders too who severely damaged their respective economies.

[bkkandrew]

Today true Baht rates are

US$ ($50-$100 Notes) 33.10 (TT rate 33.36)

UK Pound Sterling 67.40 (TT rate 68.288) - Much better than last weak showing the Baht has not strengthened any further generally, more like weakened against most currencies except the steadily collapsing US$ of course .

Well, you were ripped off then. I got THB68.60 to GBP at Super Rich today. Shame you know nothing about this subject, otherwise you could avoid such scams...

[bkkandrew]

No no no. They are rip off selling rates for Thai Baht and quoting them causes people to panic unnecessarily. The true money market rate was NEVER 29.95 that is a consumer tourist rate for sure as I said check the Financial times pages for money market true rates.

Well, you obviously misread. Bloomberg, Reuters and the FT all gave 29.95 as the mid-market quote as the USD THB quote during the last week. No - wait a minute - you must be right and all those financial reporting organisatios wrong!

The actual selling rate for THB (from USD) in a retail bank is in the region of 27 stateside (perhaps someone could confirm the exact amount who lives is Bushville?)

In the same way, sale rate in UK for THB on Friday was 56 at HSBC, way short of the 62 mid-market (offshore) rate and shorter of the Bank rate here, which, in turn, is always short of the changer rate in BKK, which I use.

Edited July 18, 2007 by bkkandrew

[BlissfullyIgnorant]

The gap between the foreign mid-market rates and the local buying rates is widening even more now - from the +8% it's been sitting at during the past few months, to the +10% it hit a couple of days ago, and now it's >11%.

Currency: Intl mid-market rate - domestic TT buy rate (difference)

USD: 29.95 - 33.41 (+11.55%)

GBP: 61.44 - 68.42 (+11.36%)

EUR: 41.31 - 45.96 (+11.25%)

AUD: 26.25 - 29.17 (+11.12%)

(as of 8:30 AM)

Of course the actual adjustment is another +0.25% on top of these numbers, given the usual 0.5% spread between buy & sell.

[Martin]

The Minister of Commerce said:

"...He believes that if they are able to adjust their businesses in line with the situation..."

which seems to be a polite way of saying that those who can't stand the heat should make an orderly retreat from the kitchen, as that is preferable to staying a bit longer and then being carried out with heatstroke or burns.

[Mid]

Deputy PM believes repo cut will help tame baht surge

Thursday 19 July 2007 10:42:22 AM (GMT+7:00)

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras on Wednesday expressed confidence that the decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to further cut the policy interest rate would help stimulate consumer spending and private investment and ease the sharp baht appreciation

MCOT Public Company Limited

[Prakanong]

Deputy PM believes repo cut will help tame baht surge

Thursday 19 July 2007 10:42:22 AM (GMT+7:00)

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras on Wednesday expressed confidence that the decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to further cut the policy interest rate would help stimulate consumer spending and private investment and ease the sharp baht appreciation

MCOT Public Company Limited

And that pig flying past my window just reminded me I fancy moo daeng for lunch

[Mid]

oh come on ,

it worked the last four times ...........................

[Jai Dee]

BoT trying its utmost in resolving the strong baht

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont today earlier told press members that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) is trying its utmost to improve the baht situation.

The BoT has recently announced to cut interest rates in a bid to solve the baht appreciation. The premier, however, views that the BoT has tried its best.

This afternoon, deputy Prime Minister and Industrial Minister Kosit Panpiemras (โฆสิต ปั้นเปี่ยมรัษฎ์) will discuss with agencies, to seek measures in resolving the strengthening of the baht currency. The result of the discussion will be proposed to the premier tomorrow (July 20th).

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 19 July 2007

[LaoPo]

Thailand to allow public to open US dollar bank accounts to slow baht's rise

BANGKOK, Thailand (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of Thailand said Thursday it would allow the public to open US dollar-denominated bank accounts in a bid to curb the baht's rise.

The Thai currency is hovering at around 10-year highs against the greenback.

Under the measure, ordinary Thais can own domestic bank deposits worth up to 100,000 dollars, central bank governor Tarisa Watanagase said, adding the scheme was part of a package aimed at reducing upward pressure on the baht.

The central bank will present the package to Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont's cabinet for approval next Tuesday.

Under current rules, Thai firms can hold dollar-denominated bank accounts here but the public was not allowed to do so.

On Wednesday, the central bank slashed its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent, the fifth consecutive rate cut this year, as it sought to rein in the rising baht.

The strong baht has put pressure on exports, the key driver of the Thai economy.

However the rate cut had little impact as the Thai currency was quoted at 33.49-51 to the dollar in morning trade Thursday, compared to Wednesday's close of 33.46-48.

Forbes/AFX

LaoPo

[rayw]

Today true Baht rates are

US$ ($50-$100 Notes) 33.10 (TT rate 33.36)

UK Pound Sterling 67.40 (TT rate 68.288) - Much better than last weak showing the Baht has not strengthened any further generally, more like weakened against most currencies except the steadily collapsing US$ of course .

Well, you were ripped off then. I got THB68.60 to GBP at Super Rich today. Shame you know nothing about this subject, otherwise you could avoid such scams...

I actually know a fair bit about this subject as I did work directly in the Forex money markets for nearly 10 years, okay some while ago but the same logic and maths apply still today. Whether you take notice of what I said or not is entirely up to you of course, but just in case I do have a spare bucket of sand here you can borrow as I tend to never use it I am just trying to be a realist so I say it again clearly -- The Baht is not particularly a lot stronger than it has been for the last 6 months against most currencies but the weak dollar falsely makes it look incredibly strong in comparison and this is the whole topic of this thread. So lets stop talking about the Baht and talk about what is important, that is the serious demise of the US$ which is very important to us all. It really amazes and stuns me that some guys here seem not to accept that the US $ is so very weak and an unwanted currency right now, that is a FACT and all I quote is facts here. They seem to think if it is anything to do with the USA then it has to be good, what sad thinking as although much is good in the USA much is also currently very bad indeed unfortunately. Mind you it might be good to buy US$ soon as it cannot go much lower ... or can it ?? !!!

The rate today is indeed higher as the Baht has weakened a little. The rates I quoted were nothing to do with my knowledge or guess work they were quoted direct off of one of the main banks here in Thailand on 17th July. Thai banks only make about a 2.5% spread between buying and selling bank notes here so they are FAR closer to true money rates which vary less than 0.5% in their spread normally. That rate of 68.60 I have not seen anywhere on 18th in fact I would say that you did very well as it looks like the clerk who changed your money gave you the rate for buying Baht back off of you rather than selling Baht to you. Yesterday the £ bank note rate was around 67.40 Baht per pound sterling. Where is this Super Rich place I must go and buy some Baht bank notes I could make a nice little profit on that. I wasn't ripped off either as was only quoting you the true rates form the various Thai banks updated websites.

STILL nobody has got onto these western organisations who are quoting silly rates like 29.xx Baht/US$ or 61.xx Baht/UK Pound and asked them what rate they buy say 1000 Baht bank notes back. That would tell the story finally and completely !! The Bank of Thailand as I say quote the true rates for both buying and selling Baht just use that it is accurate and close to what you get in the Thai High Soi Banks again here is the website url :-

http://www.bot.or.th/Bothomepage/databank/.../exchange_e.asp

Note that today this site quote the Average Interbank Exchange Rate = 33.446 Baht/US Dollar and this is indeed a proper middle rate so take off about 2.5 % (twice the percentage the main Thai banks take off) = 32.60, getting less Baht per dollar than this then you ARE being ripped off for certain. Today 33.15 is the going rate for US$ bank notes ($50-$100 notes) in the main Thai public banks.

You should find that the middle money market rate is the average between the buying and selling rates on that BoT site. It will be about the same middle rate as the rip off western rate tourist traders, it is just the spread that is fair and honest here but far from it in the west.

Edited July 19, 2007 by rayw

[lotus eater]

A simple - maybe crude to an expert - question.

1. Wire transfer £sterling to thai bank with latter making exchange into baht for credit to my account with them (ignoring the £20 transfer fee).

2. Use my nationwide atm card in thailand (natwide makes no charge for this overseas use.

3. Use £s currency to exchange at thai bank/kiosk.

Other things being equal which of these will give me the best rate for my sterling amount, ie the most baht?

[bkkandrew]

I actually know a fair bit about this subject as I did work directly in the Forex money markets for nearly 10 years, okay some while ago but the same logic and maths apply still today.

Oh dear, so long ago you had the teller position in a Thomas Cook Booth on a provincial town high street, shame you have forgotten even this elimentary understanding of Forex (which I trade daily).

Whether you take notice of what I said or not is entirely up to you of course, but just in case I do have a spare bucket of sand here you can borrow as I tend to never use it

Speaks volumes. Making sandcastles is clearly your limit...

I am just trying to be a realist so I say it again clearly

You have not said anything clearly or accurately so far...

The Baht is not particularly a lot stronger than it has been for the last 6 months against most currencies but the weak dollar falsely makes it look incredibly strong in comparison and this is the whole topic of this thread. So lets stop talking about the Baht and talk about what is important, that is the serious demise of the US$ which is very important to us all. It really amazes and stuns me that some guys here seem not to accept that the US $ is so very weak and an unwanted currency right now, that is a FACT and all I quote is facts here. They seem to think if it is anything to do with the USA then it has to be good, what sad thinking as although much is good in the USA much is also currently very bad indeed unfortunately.

Hooray, you have now bothered to read my (any numerous other's) posts and now repeated them - whats the saying about the sinner repenteth??

Mind you it might be good to buy US$ soon as it cannot go much lower ... or can it ?? !!!

Oh dear, rambling again...

The rate today is indeed higher as the Baht has weakened a little.

Sure?

The rates I quoted were nothing to do with my knowledge or guess work they were quoted direct off of one of the main banks here in Thailand on 17th July. Thai banks only make about a 2.5% spread between buying and selling bank notes here so they are FAR closer to true money rates which vary less than 0.5% in their spread normally.

So what? - this is nothing to do with the offshore rate, Thai banks (the key is in the name...) use the onshore rate - sorry to get technical, you know Thai banks being onshore in Thailand and all..

That rate of 68.60 I have not seen anywhere on 18th in fact I would say that you did very well as it looks like the clerk who changed your money gave you the rate for buying Baht back off of you rather than selling Baht to you. Yesterday the £ bank note rate was around 67.40 Baht per pound sterling. Where is this Super Rich place I must go and buy some Baht bank notes I could make a nice little profit on that. I wasn't ripped off either as was only quoting you the true rates form the various Thai banks updated websites.

You lack of knowledge of such places happily demonstrates your inability to read this board (or presumably any other). Why not try a search of this forum for the words "Super Rich" and you may be able to see why you are now embarrassed...

STILL nobody has got onto these western organisations who are quoting silly rates like 29.xx Baht/US$ or 61.xx Baht/UK Pound and asked them what rate they buy say 1000 Baht bank notes back. That would tell the story finally and completely !!

Who has been defending them? Why would anyone want to?

The Bank of Thailand as I say quote the true rates for both buying and selling Baht just use that it is accurate and close to what you get in the Thai High Soi Banks again here is the website url :-

http://www.bot.or.th/Bothomepage/databank/.../exchange_e.asp

Note that today this site quote the Average Interbank Exchange Rate = 33.446 Baht/US Dollar and this is indeed a proper middle rate so take off about 2.5 % (twice the percentage the main Thai banks take off) = 32.60, getting less Baht per dollar than this then you ARE being ripped off for certain. Today 33.15 is the going rate for US$ bank notes ($50-$100 notes) in the main Thai public banks.

You should find that the middle money market rate is the average between the buying and selling rates on that BoT site. It will be about the same middle rate as the rip off western rate tourist traders, it is just the spread that is fair and honest here but far from it in the west.

No, the BOT is simply the indicator of onshore rates. A fact that you are seemingly not able to understand...

Please read the rest of the forum on this subject before posting again, as this is tedious..

Edited July 19, 2007 by bkkandrew

[bkkandrew]

A simple - maybe crude to an expert - question.

1. Wire transfer £sterling to thai bank with latter making exchange into baht for credit to my account with them (ignoring the £20 transfer fee).

2. Use my nationwide atm card in thailand (natwide makes no charge for this overseas use.

3. Use £s currency to exchange at thai bank/kiosk.

Other things being equal which of these will give me the best rate for my sterling amount, ie the most baht?

Lowest is changing in UK at, say Thomas Cook;

Then TT, changed to THB in UK;

Then cash changed in Thailand;

Then TC's changed in Thailand;

Then the trusty N/W Card;

Then TT changed locally in Thailand

Then, highest, is note exchange rate at Money Changer, such as (the now infamous) Super Rich..

[Jai Dee]

Businesses ask for other practical measures to deal with baht crisis

Entrepreneurs suggest the interim government to implement more measures for curbing the sharp appreciation of Thai baht following the reduction of interest rates.

Mr. Poonkiat Tangsombat (พูนเกียรติ ทังสมบัติ), the Chairman of the Thai Seafood Producers, reveals that the baht's strengthening has impacted not only the total export but also have the psychological effects as the government could not simplify the future of the Thai currency. He says the business operators will also find it difficult to adapt with the changes and are reluctant to invest further as one US dollars is currently equals to approximately 33 baht. He says most entrepreneurs view that the lower interest rates could do little to improve the situation.

Mr. Poonkiat says the fluctuated currency within a short period of time has a significant impact as it is difficult for business operators to forecast the future. At the same tim, some entreprenuers would have to close down their production facilities, leading to more unemployment.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 20 July 2007

[Jai Dee]

PM to consider currency measures b/f forwarding them to Cabinet meeting

The Prime Minister, Gen. Surayud Chulanont (สุรยุทธ์ จุลานนท์), chaired the meeting with the committee responsible for pushing forward the national agenda on planting trees to pay off debts at 10: 30 hours today (Jul 20).

At 14:00 hours, the Prime Minister will have a meeting with Mr. Prayoon Chandtrusorn (ประยูร จันทรุสอน), the Chairman of the Television and Radio Broadcast Association of Thailand, together with other leading members of the association.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras (โฆสิต ปั้นเปี่ยมรัษฎ์) is scheduled to report the measures to address the sharp appreciation of Thai baht to Gen. Surayud today. The Prime Minister will consider the measures before they will be discussed at the Cabinet meeting next week.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 20 July 2007

[PeaceBlondie]

Have I just been reading too many news releases from the government, or is this crisis so critical that they are now actually - gasp - having meetings?

Pardon my ignorance, but if the BOT were to reduce the interest rates a full three percent today, more or less to zero percent, how much would that affect the currency rate, and how long would it take to affect it? And now that they will allow Thais to have dollar denominated bank accounts, how many Thais are going to do so, at what volumes?

The exporters have been making adjustments for about a year now; they may not have any net profit margin left to adjust.

[klikster]

Yep the US dollar will continue to slide as long as you have a w*nker for president ..

Sir, please cease and desist insulting w*nkers!

[midas]

Yep the US dollar will continue to slide as long as you have a w*nker for president ..

Sir, please cease and desist insulting w*nkers!

I am not an American so I have no reason to support GWB but it is apparent to anyone

who studies the recent history of the USA the " rot " regarding economics,

education standards increased crime etc etc began to set in long before the current President took office

[bkkandrew]

Another new high on the offshore rate with the USD:

Live rates at 2007.07.20 08:19:33 UTC

Notice: The THB rate shown below is the international rate. Rates used within Thailand may vary.

1.00 USD = 29.8595 THB

United States Dollars Thailand Baht

1 USD = 29.8595 THB 1 THB = 0.0334901 USD

Source: xe.com

[Martin]

Does 30 really indicate a strong baht, as well as a weakening US dollar?

I think it is possible to argue that, back in 1996, 25 was widely held to be an overvaluation of the baht by about 15% and if the baht had been floated then, 30 (more or less) would have been its level thereafter. Not floating in time and using up the foreign currency reserves in trying to defend an unrealistic rate resulted in the crisis of 1997, and a baht/dollar rate for the next ten years that was unnaturally high.

I note that it costs me approximatedy as many THB to buy a baht of gold in an Udon gold shop as it did a year ago. That suggests to me that the baht is more or less holding its own, whilst many currencies are weakening a bit, the pound is weakening considerably, and the US dollar is weakening catastrophically.

I would expect that the long term trend will be for currencies of countries that have something important to export (staple foods and/or energy) will strengthen, and the currencies of countries that depend on being able to import them will weaken.

So I expect the purchasing power of my pensions from the UK to reduce as Britain moves from being an an oil exporter to an importer.

The currencies that I would expect to strengthen are dinars, roubles and Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

What will happen with the big one ---the yuan---is anybody's guess. There seems to be a serious danger of China finding it has brought people off the land into the city factories just when the demand for manufactured products dries up, as its previous customers spend their money on food and fueds and have little left for their previous levels of consumerism.

We live in interesting times.

As to the pleas above for Thailand's government to 'manage' the baht to a higher level redative to the US dollar, I think they are unrealistic.

By all means, the government should have meetings and listen to what is said. In saying it, the special-interest pleaders may come to see that they are asking for something that is not possible, or not in the interests of the nation as a whole.

Then they should resolve that, as they had a good time in the kitchen before it got too hot, they should now make as orderly a retreat from it as they quickly can.

The PM said, in January to the FCCT and the Ambassadors, "As an early adopter of a sustainable approach to development, Thailand should, I believe, be praised for it is a path down which every country and country will have to travel sooner ratherthan later."

The concomitant to that is that the unsustainable activities should be phased out sooner rather than crashing out later.

The least-sustainable textile making-up factories should now be contracting and then closing.

And the automobile-assemblers should be reading the writing on the wall and getting their contraction plans ready.

But that is not a 'doom and gloom' scenario. Thailand has plenty of land that can be turned over to labour-intensive farming, with the result that everybody is fed and housed adequately. And, amongst the Thais who leave the closed factories, there are the knowledge and skills to transfer to the land.

At that point, with Thai rice in much greater demand and commanding much higher prices, I would expect the baht to strengthen considerably in the decades whilst the USA and Britain are trying to adjust from their intense industrial bases towards something sustainable.

Edited July 20, 2007 by Martin

[bkkandrew]

whilst many currencies are weakening a bit, the pound is weakening considerably,

What planet are you on? Onshore, GBP has gone from 70 to 68, or 3%.

Chart (from BBC) shows a misleading dip when they used offshore rates (Jan-June 07), but now quote onshore rates...

GBP is rising against virtually all currencies worldwide and is expected to continue, caused by rising interest rates in UK!

[bkkandrew]

The currencies that I would expect to strengthen are dinars, roubles and Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

And if you cannot work out what has happened to your own currency during the past year, God help anyone who follows you 'advice' on predicting other currencies' movements in the future!

Edited July 20, 2007 by bkkandrew

[bkkandrew]

There seems to be a serious danger of China finding it has brought people off the land into the city factories just when the demand for manufactured products dries up, as its previous customers spend their money on food and fueds and have little left for their previous levels of consumerism.

They do start drinking early up in the Boonies, don't they!

Demand for manufactured products drying up? Are you for real?

Better sleep it off, the headache will be worse else...

[Prakanong]

The currencies that I would expect to strengthen are dinars, roubles and Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

And if you cannot work out what has happened to your own currency during the past year, God help anyone who follows you 'advice' on predicting other currencies' movements in the future!

And he wants Thai's to go back to the land and produce rice to feed themselves and sell thus a rising baht ;-)

"The Good Life"

[Mid]

I note that it costs me approximatedy as many THB to buy a baht of gold in an Udon gold shop as it did a year ago.

where in Udon is this shop of which you speak ?