Thailand In Ten Years

[Prakanong]

In 10 years Thailand will be part of Myanmar and a new communist union involving China, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and North Korea. WWIII will erupt over this development.

Time to time this thought always pops up in my head, and it scares out of my wit. Thailand herself is surrounded with communist countries, too close to comfort for the past few hundred years now.

The fact is, for the past 25 years, TL is doing far better than her neighbors. But the table is turning on the other side, her neighbors start catching up, at the rate that they're carrying now, I'm afraid she would be part of one of her neighbors. Who would that be ? Myanmar...Vietnam...Cambodia..etc are Siam old nemeses.

Communist - maybe in name only but certanly not in practice or current ideology.

They may not accept the western notion or pluralism and liberalism etc but as you say they will be growing - even the basket case Cambodia gets a rating fro Standard and Poor now (it has minerals and oil).

Vietnam is on for 10+% GDP growth for the next decade and is attracting massive FDI

China growing at 11% and Singapore at 8% this year - Thailand at 3.5%

High value inverstments going elsewhere - Thailand getting asembly plants of capital good made overseas

Thailand might just slip down the economic ladder relative to it neighbours - it will not stand still of course but its not going to be the leading tiger in ASEAN is it?

Malaysia seems to have better industrial and economic policies in place too.

Indonesia geographic diverseness and its politics are a problem but even so some area's are growing.

Maybe a holiday playground for the Chinese who will be massive travellers in 10 years with the rural poor being exactly that - subsistence farmers in the majority.

As Otis said, "A change is gonna come"

Edited July 20, 2007 by Prakanong

[kankaroo]

Anyone seen a PC game called Half Life 2? Maybe something like that

[Prakanong]

Anyone seen a PC game called Half Life 2? Maybe something like that

Well everyone says Thailand is not reality!

They usually pop home for a week a year (booked for two though) for a healthy dose of that!

[page449]

The picture on the bank notes will change but they'll still be legal tender, in Thailand anyway.

[MrSnrang]

Anyone seen a PC game called Half Life 2? Maybe something like that

If they really build that nuclear power plant, that is.

[retirednavyman]

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish.

I knew that would seem the most unlikely, But I see the low end sea side-tourists being forced out by better resorts. It seems a bit silly to continue to use top dollar real estate for low profit exchanges. It could be that the sexpats simply get pushed to new areas and continue as always. But I think spots like Pattaya will increase development until known as "Little Russia by the Sea". Then the mob will handle the dating arrangements.

The reason I think that lower end tourists will disappear is because new areas are opening all the time in other countries, whereas in Thailand the industry is more mature with bigger players. I think budget travelers will simply choose to try new places, while hotels here compete for bigger fish. Maybe upcountry will remain affordable, but not the coast.

Pattaya has a certain reputation and justifyably so, that will be extremely hard for it ever to shake off, Pattaya is not and will not be anytime in the near future a holiday destination for families, i've lived here for over 4 years and lets be honest the beaches are shlt and the sex industry is in your face where ever you go.

There are so much cheap accomodation available in Pattaya, cheap food and drink, that i can not see the lower end tourists or foreigners ever leaving. While Sihanoukville maybe might become a viable alternative in years to come for certain people, Pattaya will still be their choice for years to come.

JR Texas: Very interesting question...........my job is to "predict the future." That is what I do for a living and have done so for over 30 years (for governments, NGOs, academic institutions). Here is what my crystal ball tells me:

Population growth coupled with the mechanization and centralization of the economy (and the collapse of the global economy starting in USA and spreading to China) will create havoc in Thailand.

The gap between rich and poor will widen. The labor supply problem (too many people and too few quality jobs) will increase in magnitude.

Global warming and water/electrical shortages will also have a negative impact.

Terrorism will increase and become far more violent than it is today. Instability in the south will grow and threaten the entire southern region of Thailand--including Phuket, Bangkok, and Pattaya-Jomtien. The real estate market will collapse.

All of the above will cause massive social chaos and instability. The government will try to keep the system afloat using the mainstream mass media and schools, but will fail (at some point, people who tell lies are no longer listened to).

Eventually, the general public will reach the conclusion that they have been fed a bunch of BS and will take action. This will, in part, involve a rising tide of xenophobia (the result of scapegoating as the govt. will try to blame foreigners for Thailand's problems).

Elderly expats will eventually be seen as a "burden" and the grandfathered laws will be abrogated (in effect, a purge will take place).

Sorry for the bad news......but the trends are already there. I have seen nothing over the past 30 years that would lead me to a different conclusion. So, enjoy things now.......

Tell me shipmate, is all the aforementioned gloom and doom predictions based on valid scientific research, or are you just making it up as you go along?

[geronimo]

Recently I began assisting someone in the groundwork of what will be a major investment of both time and money. This project will not likely be profitable for many years. This has started me to imagine what Thailand might be like ten years from now.

I am certainly just a punter, but I can still make a guess. Here is what I think will happen; barring any major shift in world politics or in Thai philosophy.

-Mainstream Media will remain the pawn of government, but underground media and upstart media will begin to take prominence.

-Government will continue to approximate a democratic system but the power will remain with the elite. Business interests will eventually dictate the direction of government once again.

-The gap between upper and lower class will widen, with no substantial changes in middle class.

-Thailand will have fallen behind Vietnam in international trade and will be struggling to regain its Asian tiger status.

-Tourism will have shifted to primarily Asian customers, China, Korea, Russia, and Japan. Thailand will become a destination for the elite traveler. Sorry cheap Charlie, Cambodia is calling.

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish. What is left will become something more corporate and organized (out of the pan and into the fire).

-The southern conflict will continue despite various attempts to settle the dispute. Some regions will be handed special status (self governance) in an attempt to reduce the violence.

-Education will improve through the globalization of information.

This is just an opinion. I put it here so I could hear your opinions.

Maybe Thailand is heading for a renaissance or perhaps a crushing dictatorship.

What do you say?

I only look 24 hours ahead. It works for me!!!!

[Nignoy]

Everyone has mentioned the changes they expect , in tourism, politics and the financial scene in thailand and the next 10 years , what about the cultural changes , Isaan never recovered from the legacy the american troops left behind when they left, in the late 50,s early 60,s there was a sleepy little town called Korat, a small air field staffed by 130 new zealand aircrew, Then the mighty Usaaf took over bringing with them, the bars ,the brothels the vast estates where they housed their Mia Noi,s and of course the drug culture that went with it, the same happened in Ubon , Udon and all points north, Civilised culture had come to thailand ofcourse we brits are responsible too!! if we had not started our little rest camp at a fishing villge south of Naklua there would be no Pattaya as it is today!!over the last 40 years I have seen so many changes , lived through the odd putsch or 3.with the laws they have today I would not have lost my Thai family,but I digress, nowadays in downtown Surin or Khon Kaen you are more likely to be greeted with Eyup Chuck or Gruss Gott or even G,day Mate than a polite sawadi the changes are there the cultures are changing,thailand is evolving those uf us who haved lived through the last 40 years cultural mayhem , will easily weather any storms thrown at us in the next 20 years too Nignoy

[dr_Pat_Pong]

In 10 years Thailand will be part of Myanmar and a new communist union involving China, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and North Korea. WWIII will erupt over this development.

clown

[LaoPo]

In 10 years Thailand will be part of Myanmar and a new communist union involving China, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and North Korea. WWIII will erupt over this development.

clown

Clown = Nostradamus #2

LaoPo

Edited July 21, 2007 by LaoPo

[GreenShone]

1Cameras all over the city.

2Booze keeps flowing.

3Traffic more heavy.

4Foreigners coming and going.

5Less strict visa regulations.

6HIV and other diseases awareness/information campaigns.

7Less cars/transportation with offensive exhaust.

8More environment friendly.

[ace]

Well, I never like to make predictions. Especially about the future....

But 3 big things in 10 years re Thailand:

1. China - The rise of China to global power will be good for Thailand, as a supplier to China.

2. War - Nuclear technology increased availability + Vast increase in nutters = very bad (but IMO, not for Thailand).

3. People - I have great faith in the Thai people. IMO they have a great attitude (sometimes think I'm in the minority on that)

[qwertz]

Thailand will still be alive and kicking ten years from now.

Will we?

Worry about today, let tomorrow take care of itself, as it surely will.

[JR Texas]

Thailand will still be alive and kicking ten years from now.

Will we?

Worry about today, let tomorrow take care of itself, as it surely will.

Just wanted to follow up on some things......as stated, Thailand is likely in for a major fall if they continue down their current path and make more stupid decision with regard to visa/business rules.

Expats wanting to retire and small scale entrepreneurs will continue to look elsewhere--most likely Cambodia, China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines. Cambodia, by the way, is starting to receive major attention and investment dollars from China and Japan.....energy independence from Thailand will soon follow (hydroelectric dams and tapping oil reserves). Virtually all of the surrounding countries now are far more receptive to expats and small-scale entreprenuers than Thailand.

A word about Thailand's population problem. Some people do not think it is a problem because the growth rate has declined. Well....it is a major problem.

First, the population size has risen from about 19 million in 1950 to its present 64-65 million in 2007. It will likely reach 72-82 million by 2050, even with a less than 1% growth rate. AND, it is important to understand that the current population size is already unsustainable in terms of economics and environment. There has been a huge rural-urban migration in Thailand....and most of us know that the cities are now grossly overcrowded and unsustainable.......only will get worse.

Second, the growth rate has declined from about 3% in 1950 to 0.6-1% currently. But, as stated, the pop. size is already unsustainable and even a small growth rate leads to many births when you have a "youth bulge." In addition, the growth rate masks regional and ethnic differences (Muslims in south still having way too many babies).

Third, Thailand's population pyramid is characterized by a strong youth bulge.....take a look at the numbers of people between 10-35, half of which are girls. They will grow up and have children and cause the population to take off. If the jobs are not there down the line, social unrest follows.

China, Syria, Pakistan, India all have a similar problem......many scholars are warning about this and the single-male problem (single, no jobs, no job prospect, girls do not want them, angry and violent).

No time to go over what I just wrote (written in haste), but I think you get the picture. The demographic situation is far more complex than it appears on the surface.

[opebo]

Dude the Thai population is rapidly aging and not growing much at all anymore. It is highly unlikely it will ever reach 82 million - we should be so lucky.

There's no problem with 'overcrowding', etc. The problem will be a lack of young workers and too many old decrepit people relative to those few young workers.

[LaoPo]

No time to go over what I just wrote (written in haste), but I think you get the picture. The demographic situation is far more complex than it appears on the surface.

If you want to talk numbers and problems, here you go:

Countries and Areas Ranked by Population: 2007

--------------------------------------------------------

Rank Country or Area Population

--------------------------------------------------------

1 China 1,321,851,888

2 India 1,129,866,154

3 United States 301,139,947

4 Indonesia 234,693,997

5 Brazil 190,010,647

6 Pakistan 164,741,924

7 Bangladesh 150,448,339

8 Russia 141,377,752

9 Nigeria 135,031,164

10 Japan 127,433,494

11 Mexico 108,700,891 These are the top 11 countries with more than 100 Million in population

12 Philippines 91,077,287

13 Vietnam 85,262,356

14 Germany 82,400,996

15 Egypt 80,335,036

16 Ethiopia 76,511,887

17 Turkey 71,158,647

18 Congo (Kinshasa) 65,751,512

19 Iran 65,397,521

20 Thailand 65,068,149

21 France 63,718,187

22 United Kingdom 60,776,238

23 Italy 58,147,733

24 Korea, South 49,044,790 These are the countries between (almost) 50 and 100 million.

25 Burma 47,373,958

26 Ukraine 46,299,862

27 Colombia 44,379,598

28 South Africa 43,997,828

29 Spain 40,448,191

30 Argentina 40,301,927

31 Tanzania 39,384,223

32 Sudan 39,379,358

33 Poland 38,518,241

34 Kenya 36,913,721

35 Morocco 33,757,175

36 Canada 33,390,141

37 Algeria 33,333,216

38 Afghanistan 31,889,923

39 Uganda 30,262,610 countries between 30 and 50 million

40 Nepal 28,901,790

41 Peru 28,674,757

42 Uzbekistan 27,780,059

43 Saudi Arabia 27,601,038

44 Iraq 27,499,638

45 Venezuela 26,023,528

46 Malaysia 24,821,286

47 Korea, North 23,301,725

48 Ghana 22,931,299

49 Taiwan 22,858,872

50 Romania 22,276,056

51 Yemen 22,230,531

52 Sri Lanka 20,926,315

53 Mozambique 20,905,585

54 Australia 20,434,176 countries between 20 and 30 million

55 Madagascar 19,448,815

56 Syria 19,314,747

57 Cameroon 18,060,382

58 Cote d'Ivoire 18,013,409

59 Netherlands 16,570,613

60 Chile 16,284,741

61 Kazakhstan 15,284,929

62 Burkina Faso 14,326,203

63 Cambodia 13,995,904

64 Ecuador 13,755,680

65 Malawi 13,603,181

66 Niger 12,894,865

67 Guatemala 12,728,111

68 Senegal 12,521,851

69 Zimbabwe 12,311,143

70 Angola 12,263,596

71 Mali 11,995,402

72 Zambia 11,477,447

73 Cuba 11,394,043

74 Greece 10,706,290

75 Portugal 10,642,836

76 Belgium 10,392,226

77 Tunisia 10,276,158

78 Czech Republic 10,228,744

79 Serbia 10,150,265

80 Hungary 9,956,108

81 Guinea 9,947,814

82 Rwanda 9,907,509

83 Chad 9,885,661

84 Belarus 9,724,723

85 Dominican Republic 9,365,818

86 Bolivia 9,119,152

87 Somalia 9,118,773

88 Sweden 9,031,088

89 Haiti 8,706,497

90 Burundi 8,390,505

91 Austria 8,199,783

92 Azerbaijan 8,120,247

93 Benin 8,078,314

94 Switzerland 7,554,661

95 Honduras 7,483,763

96 Bulgaria 7,322,858

97 Tajikistan 7,076,598

98 Hong Kong S.A.R. 6,980,412

99 El Salvador 6,948,073

100 Paraguay 6,669,086

--------------------------------------------------------

Note: Data updated 07-16-2007 (Release notes).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

LaoPo

[PeaceBlondie]

Dude the Thai population is rapidly aging and not growing much at all anymore. It is highly unlikely it will ever reach 82 million - we should be so lucky.

There's no problem with 'overcrowding', etc. The problem will be a lack of young workers and too many old decrepit people relative to those few young workers.

opebo, I agreed with you earlier about the question of Thai future demographics, but as JRTexas points out, it ain't that simple. Yes, Thais have reduced their birth rate drastically, but if there are too many fertile people having unprotected sex, there can still be another population increase. Generally, what I see is that the very families we know have gone from having 8 to 6 to 2 babies, in a couple of generations, and both rural and urban Thai families have less of a support network than they used to have.

In another ways, smaller families can help a nation. School class sizes would decrease, assuming that they stop giving early retirements to senior teachers and start hiring some new blood. More families could afford to send their kids to higher education (for what that's worth in Thailand...). Fewer mouths to feed, mothers able to start work after both kids are in school, etc. I suspect, however, that these are just two more giant steps toward modernization and urbanization and globalization that will tear apart the fabric of the old Thai culture, for what it is worth.

LaoPo, at the turn of the century the UN's best demographers guessed that India would overtake China in population around 2035. It is amazing, though, to see that Thailand ranks 20th in that list of nations' populations. The countries which halved their birth rate in 25 years are China, Mexico, and.....Thailand.

[Heng]

As for overcrowding, while the overall numbers might not be increasing, the numbers crowding into the cities still is.

[PeaceBlondie]

As for overcrowding, while the overall numbers might not be increasing, the numbers crowding into the cities still is.

Good point, as usual, Heng. What does the shift between rural and city life have for Thai culture? In most countries, it has torn the fabric of extended family, giving more chances for both university education and gang life.

[Heng]

Well... it's certainly tearing the fabric for some, but in many cases I'd say it's just stretching the ol' fabric and creating something new as well. It's not just country folks that move to the cities. City folks also move around as well. If old Bangkok families didn't branch out to other cities, younger sons and daughters in general would have had much less of a chance of staking their claims in life, instead living under the main family banner.

[AlbertTatlockDeceased]

Interesting view,

Personally, I think we just need to look at Idi Amin and Uganda - replacing Indian/Asians with Farang!

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish.

I knew that would seem the most unlikely, But I see the low end sea side-tourists being forced out by better resorts. It seems a bit silly to continue to use top dollar real estate for low profit exchanges. It could be that the sexpats simply get pushed to new areas and continue as always. But I think spots like Pattaya will increase development until known as "Little Russia by the Sea". Then the mob will handle the dating arrangements.

The reason I think that lower end tourists will disappear is because new areas are opening all the time in other countries, whereas in Thailand the industry is more mature with bigger players. I think budget travelers will simply choose to try new places, while hotels here compete for bigger fish. Maybe upcountry will remain affordable, but not the coast.

Pattaya has a certain reputation and justifyably so, that will be extremely hard for it ever to shake off, Pattaya is not and will not be anytime in the near future a holiday destination for families, i've lived here for over 4 years and lets be honest the beaches are shlt and the sex industry is in your face where ever you go.

There are so much cheap accomodation available in Pattaya, cheap food and drink, that i can not see the lower end tourists or foreigners ever leaving. While Sihanoukville maybe might become a viable alternative in years to come for certain people, Pattaya will still be their choice for years to come.

JR Texas: Very interesting question...........my job is to "predict the future." That is what I do for a living and have done so for over 30 years (for governments, NGOs, academic institutions). Here is what my crystal ball tells me:

Population growth coupled with the mechanization and centralization of the economy (and the collapse of the global economy starting in USA and spreading to China) will create havoc in Thailand.

The gap between rich and poor will widen. The labor supply problem (too many people and too few quality jobs) will increase in magnitude.

Global warming and water/electrical shortages will also have a negative impact.

Terrorism will increase and become far more violent than it is today. Instability in the south will grow and threaten the entire southern region of Thailand--including Phuket, Bangkok, and Pattaya-Jomtien. The real estate market will collapse.

All of the above will cause massive social chaos and instability. The government will try to keep the system afloat using the mainstream mass media and schools, but will fail (at some point, people who tell lies are no longer listened to).

Eventually, the general public will reach the conclusion that they have been fed a bunch of BS and will take action. This will, in part, involve a rising tide of xenophobia (the result of scapegoating as the govt. will try to blame foreigners for Thailand's problems).

Elderly expats will eventually be seen as a "burden" and the grandfathered laws will be abrogated (in effect, a purge will take place).

Sorry for the bad news......but the trends are already there. I have seen nothing over the past 30 years that would lead me to a different conclusion. So, enjoy things now.......

[qwertz]

Who cares about ten years from now?

There will be change, some for the better, some for the worse.

A wise person plans for change, accepts it or helps bring it about.

[tijnebijn]

Who cares about ten years from now?

There will be change, some for the better, some for the worse.

A wise person plans for change, accepts it or helps bring it about.

True , just in case always keep some money in the back . The world is ever changing as is our personal lives .

Who knows who of us is still alive in about ten years ?

So why worry about it ?

[canuckamuck]

Interesting view,

Personally, I think we just need to look at Idi Amin and Uganda - replacing Indian/Asians with Farang!

I don't quite get what your saying, Do you want to explain a bit more?

[qwertz]

Doesn't TV have a soothsayer to address questions on the future?

[Xangsamhua]

Will Singapore be a significant player in Thailand's next decade? They've got plenty of money, they're savvy, they've got supporters here, they increased their investment over 5-fold from 1995 - 2005 and they need a hinterland.

[bkkandrew]

Interesting view,

Personally, I think we just need to look at Idi Amin and Uganda - replacing Indian/Asians with Farang!

I don't quite get what your saying, Do you want to explain a bit more?

I assume he is referring to the mass-expulsions of Asians from Uganda and inferring that felangs could meet a similar fate here...

[Naam]

Personally, I think we just need to look at Idi Amin and Uganda - replacing Indian/Asians with Farang!

replaced with farangs? didn't your Mama teach you to put that booze bottle away once you start hallucinating?

[qwertz]

The real Albert Tatlock wasn't too bright either.

[Heng]

Will Singapore be a significant player in Thailand's next decade? They've got plenty of money, they're savvy, they've got supporters here, they increased their investment over 5-fold from 1995 - 2005 and they need a hinterland.

Singaporeans, Taiwanese, HK Chinese, and mainland Chinese have long been welcomed into the LOS. The Hokkien and the Teochiu get along very well, with the latter often helping the former obtain Thai citizenship.