Putin's Hidden War: The Escalation of Russian Covert Operations in Europe

[Social Media]

 

In the shadowy world of espionage, the retirement of Sergei Beseda was a subdued end to a career that once commanded great influence within Russia's intelligence apparatus. As the head of the FSB's Fifth Service, responsible for operations within the former Soviet Union, Beseda's tenure concluded in disgrace, receiving much of the blame for the failure to adequately prepare for the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This episode led some in the West to prematurely conclude that Russian intelligence was a paper tiger, resting on the laurels of its Soviet and Tsarist predecessors. However, the subsequent two years have demonstrated that such assumptions were gravely mistaken. Russia's security services have not only regrouped but have also responded with renewed confidence and cooperation.

 

 

The FSB, GRU, and SVR, which were once plagued by infighting, are now collaborating more closely than at any time since the Second World War. Analysts suggest that this newfound unity has empowered a younger generation of ambitious spymasters, filling the void left by figures like Beseda. The scale and scope of Russia's covert operations abroad have reached levels not seen since the Cold War, marked by daylight assassinations and attempted coups. Nearly every week, a new operation bearing Russian fingerprints is uncovered. "And those are just the ones we know about," says Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former special adviser to the head of Ukraine's foreign intelligence service. "Those operations that come to light are just a tiny fraction of the total number. It's not necessarily that they are operating in a different way, but the scale has grown hugely."

 

 

Recruitment within the security services has surged, with a particular focus on students both at home and abroad in countries sympathetic to Russia, such as Serbia. The GRU, Russia's military intelligence service, has notably expanded its special operations branch, Unit 29155. This unit, known for its involvement in state-sponsored murder and political destabilization, has grown from about 500 officers in 2022 to as many as 2,000 today. Unit 29155 officers have been implicated in some of Russia's most audacious overseas operations of the past decade, including the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury and an attempted pro-Serbian coup in Montenegro. Indicative of the unit's significance is the recent promotion of its former leader, Andrei Averyanov, to deputy head of the GRU, responsible for coordinating all unconventional warfare operations across Europe.

 

 

Russia's history of covert operations is deeply rooted in its foreign policy, dating back to the nascent Bolshevik government, which quickly embarked on a campaign of political agitation across Europe to export the revolution. This legacy continues as Russian leaders maintain a doctrinal belief that unconventional warfare is essential for advancing the country's global standing. However, the task has become increasingly difficult since the expulsion of up to 600 Russian intelligence officers operating under diplomatic cover in European capitals. To rebuild these networks rapidly, Moscow has increasingly relied on foreign nationals, particularly those within the criminal underworld. Bulgarians and Serbians have proven to be some of the most willing conspirators, according to Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russian intelligence services. "Russia has a natural advantage across eastern Europe when it comes to recruitment of foreigners because of their longstanding ties with those countries," he says. "But they are recruiting on an unprecedented level in Bulgaria and Serbia, both because of the fact that there are strong organized crime groups in those countries and due to a high level of political support for Russia there."

 

 

The Kremlin's campaign to sow chaos along NATO's eastern flank has included a series of mysterious fires in buildings across Poland, an attempted hammer attack on exiled Russian opposition activist Leonid Volkov in Lithuania, and numerous acts of sabotage against transport infrastructure. Russia's "active measures" against central and northern Europe over the past few months have been so broad in scope that it is sometimes difficult to discern an underlying strategy. These actions include the removal of buoys marking the Russian-Estonian border, hundreds of attempted acts of sabotage, and disruptions to GPS signals across the southern Baltic. "There does appear to be this spike in what is going on and what is being planned after what may have been a period when Russia was fully absorbed with Ukraine," says Keir Giles, an author and Russia scholar at Chatham House.

 

 

The use of local proxies to carry out these disruptions has allowed Moscow to pursue its aims on an industrial scale without exposing its own spies to the risk of detection. "That means in effect there’s no downside," Giles explains. "There’s no reason for them not to do this because they’re not going to suffer any reputational damage over what they already have and they don’t care if their proxies get rounded up in prison because it’s no skin off their nose."

 

 

Many incidents have a military dimension, whether involving prying around bases or testing security around railways used to transport NATO troops and equipment. Giles argues that Russia is probing the resilience of European logistics, particularly in Germany and Poland, to identify vulnerabilities that could be exploited in a future war. Despite numerous incidents in Germany, including a suspected arson attack on a factory in Berlin and cyberattacks on the two largest political parties, Poland remains a primary target due to its strategic importance as a conduit for Western military aid to Ukraine. Moscow's intelligence agencies appear to have recruited dozens of individuals in Poland to conduct acts of sabotage. Last month, at least nine individuals, including Polish, Ukrainian, and Belarusian citizens, were charged with conducting acts of sabotage for Russia. A few weeks earlier, another Pole was arrested on suspicion of gathering intelligence for a possible assassination attempt against President Zelensky as he passed through Rzeszow-Jasionka airport.

 

 

France has also been a significant target of Russian covert operations. A recent incident involved three men placing five wooden coffins beneath the Eiffel Tower, a stunt aimed at stirring alarm over President Macron's suggestion that NATO troops could be deployed in Ukraine. This was part of a broader campaign to destabilize France, which includes cyberattacks, disinformation, and support for the Kremlin-friendly National Rally of Marine Le Pen. In February, France's security services warned that Moscow was staging mass cyber assaults and deluging the country with fake news to amplify dissent and internal divisions. David Colon, a propaganda expert at Paris Sciences Po University, describes the situation as a "total war" waged by Putin against democracies. "We are facing the most serious threat that has ever confronted our country," he says.

 

 

In Brussels, the Russian Permanent Mission to the European Union is said to be one of Russia's main spy centers. Despite the expulsion of 600 Russian diplomats in 2022, the mission's chargé d’affaires, Kirill Logvinov, a senior SVR intelligence officer, remains active. Belgium's State Security Service has identified Logvinov as a spy, but the expulsion of such diplomats is hindered by the EU's reluctance to escalate diplomatic tensions with Russia. This reluctance extends to imposing travel restrictions on Russian diplomats, despite warnings from NATO and several EU countries that such measures are necessary to counteract Russian espionage and sabotage activities.

 

 

Russia's espionage activities have also extended to the seabed of Europe's seas. Fishing boats and oceanographic research vessels have been tasked with mapping and possibly placing explosives on vital networks of cables and pipelines. NATO officials suspect that Russia has already mined critical undersea infrastructure, based on intelligence from companies that manage these assets. "Today espionage is more difficult to detect," says Thomas De Spiegelaere of Belgium's Maritime Security Unit. "Where in the past research vessels or military ships were mainly used, we now see non-military ships more often."

 

In Italy, Russian spies have demonstrated their audacity with operations like the escape of Artem Uss, who was under house arrest on a US extradition warrant. Russian spies in Italy have used the country as a transit point and have spread disinformation to exploit Italy's historical suspicion of NATO and the strength of the Communist Party. "Italians are seeing fake quotes online telling them not to support the war," says Mattia Caniglia of the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. Moscow's disinformation campaign in Europe, known as Doppleganger, has reached millions of people in France, Germany, and Italy.

 

The assassination of Maxim Kuzminov in Spain, a defector from the Russian military, further illustrates the reach and brutality of Russian covert operations. Despite the importance of these activities, the Spanish government has maintained a low profile to avoid conflicts with political partners, particularly Catalan separatists who have allegedly received support from Moscow. King Felipe VI's recent visit to the Baltic states was intended to reassure the region of Spain's support, but the failure to send a minister with him overshadowed the mission. An ongoing investigation into Moscow's links with Catalan separatists highlights the complex interplay of domestic and international politics influenced by Russian interference.

 

Credit: The Times 2024-07-02

 

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[Tug]

I’d watch my step if I were putin given enough provocation he may trigger a NATO response!

[spidermike007]

I think if people had any idea the extent of the operations being sponsored by the FSB around the world, and if they had any understanding of the extent of the hacking, cyber crimes, and mischief that the Russians are up to, people would be infinitely more concerned about them than they are now.

 

There's no question that the Russians are up to no good, and I believe that the same applies to Iran, China, and North Korea, as being the foremost cyber criminals on the planet. They are utterly and absolutely malicious, ill willed and heinous in their intentions. 

[Hummin]

44 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I think if people had any idea the extent of the operations being sponsored by the FSB around the world, and if they had any understanding of the extent of the hacking, cyber crimes, and mischief that the Russians are up to, people would be infinitely more concerned about them than they are now.

 

There's no question that the Russians are up to no good, and I believe that the same applies to Iran, China, and North Korea, as being the foremost cyber criminals on the planet. They are utterly and absolutely malicious, ill willed and heinous in their intentions. 

 NSA do not have any such programs or operations? 

[ericbj]

The article is interesting, and much of it is doubtlessly valid.  But it is at the same time a propaganda piece, and, as any good propagandist knows, verifiable information must be included with falsehood.

 

War is war.

 

The US and NATO sought, for a number of years, to provoke Russia into a conflict with the Ukraine.  Believing, nonetheless, that the Ukraine would be crushed in short order.  The Ukraine was to be sacrificed for NATO's objective of justifying massive economic sanctions based upon 'Russian aggression'.

 

The US/NATO goal was Russia's economic and political collapse.
But their projections seem to be proving faulty as regards this end-result.

 

Who is to blame for the prolonged bloodshed and destruction?
And the refusal to negotiate a settlement?

 

I guess most people have heard of the Gladio operations.  They and similar atrocities are history.  But those responsible in US Naval Intelligence and the CIA have never been held to account.  So what are these organisations up to today?

 

People who believe Russia blew up the Nord Stream Pipelines, as implied in the article, have never examined the available evidence.
Or prefer to blinker their thinking.

 

[candide]

44 minutes ago, ericbj said:

The article is interesting, and much of it is doubtlessly valid.  But it is at the same time a propaganda piece, and, as any good propagandist knows, verifiable information must be included with falsehood.

 

War is war.

 

The US and NATO sought, for a number of years, to provoke Russia into a conflict with the Ukraine.  Believing, nonetheless, that the Ukraine would be crushed in short order.  The Ukraine was to be sacrificed for NATO's objective of justifying massive economic sanctions based upon 'Russian aggression'.

 

The US/NATO goal was Russia's economic and political collapse.
But their projections seem to be proving faulty as regards this end-result.

 

Who is to blame for the prolonged bloodshed and destruction?
And the refusal to negotiate a settlement?

 

I guess most people have heard of the Gladio operations.  They and similar atrocities are history.  But those responsible in US Naval Intelligence and the CIA have never been held to account.  So what are these organisations up to today?

 

People who believe Russia blew up the Nord Stream Pipelines, as implied in the article, have never examined the available evidence.
Or prefer to blinker their thinking.

 

More conspiracy theories. So the U.S. and other NATO countries wanted to sacrify Ukraine so that they could impose economic sanctions on Russia. 😆

 

Those NATO countries must have been really stupid and incoherent, as they had significantly invested in Russia, and were relying on it for their energy supply.

They must have been even more stupid as Putin was doing the job for them, keeping Russia's GDP at the level of Spain or Italy (depending on the price of energy).

Putin's failure is perfectly illustrated by the fact that Russia's GDP was around at the same level in 2022 as it was in 2012. And there were few economic sanctions during this period of time.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/gdp-gross-domestic-product

 

[ericbj]

1 hour ago, candide said:

More conspiracy theories. So the U.S. and other NATO countries wanted to sacrify Ukraine so that they could impose economic sanctions on Russia. 😆

 

Those NATO countries must have been really stupid and incoherent, as they had significantly invested in Russia, and were relying on it for their energy supply.

They must have been even more stupid as Putin was doing the job for them, keeping Russia's GDP at the level of Spain or Italy (depending on the price of energy).

Putin's failure is perfectly illustrated by the fact that Russia's GDP was around at the same level in 2022 as it was in 2012. And there were few economic sanctions during this period of time.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/gdp-gross-domestic-product

 

Unfortunately, not only NATO leaders but also most EU leaders appear to be brain dead when it comes to dealing with the US/NATO-Russian confrontation.

 

You have only to look at the results of their policies so far.

 

And yes, NATO countries are vulnerable to confiscation of their extensive assets in Russia.  Yet seem oblivious to this fact as they continue to pursue the policies required by Biden.  Or more precisely by those who are using him.

 

Just look at the GDP of west European countries.  No wonder there is political revolt brewing.

 

And for Russian GDP annual growth rate, see here:

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual

 

This may also be  of interest:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68823399

 

 

[Marsupienemi]

11 hours ago, candide said:

More conspiracy theories. So the U.S. and other NATO countries wanted to sacrify Ukraine so that they could impose economic sanctions on Russia. 😆

 

Those NATO countries must have been really stupid and incoherent, as they had significantly invested in Russia, and were relying on it for their energy supply.

They must have been even more stupid as Putin was doing the job for them, keeping Russia's GDP at the level of Spain or Italy (depending on the price of energy).

Putin's failure is perfectly illustrated by the fact that Russia's GDP was around at the same level in 2022 as it was in 2012. And there were few economic sanctions during this period of time.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/gdp-gross-domestic-product

 

Have you ever heard about the BRICS?

Have you realized that each and every time a country who talked about the need of using a different currency than the USD for international trading and especially petrol, this country received a visit of the US army ? 

Zelinski and Macron are USA pawns and yes they sacrificed Ukraine to slow down Russia and the BRICS+ in their desire of creating a new currency for international trading, based on gold and not owned by any country.

And it's just a matter of time before they succeed. Just have a look on recent big purchases of gold by the USA and the EU central bank to understand they don't believe they will be able to stop them...

 

A question remains, how far the USA are ready to go to save the USD ? WWIII ?

[candide]

19 hours ago, ericbj said:

Unfortunately, not only NATO leaders but also most EU leaders appear to be brain dead when it comes to dealing with the US/NATO-Russian confrontation.

 

You have only to look at the results of their policies so far.

 

And yes, NATO countries are vulnerable to confiscation of their extensive assets in Russia.  Yet seem oblivious to this fact as they continue to pursue the policies required by Biden.  Or more precisely by those who are using him.

 

Just look at the GDP of west European countries.  No wonder there is political revolt brewing.

 

And for Russian GDP annual growth rate, see here:

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual

 

This may also be  of interest:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68823399

 

 

I know, military expenses have boosted Russia's GDP. So what? It does not change the fact that Russia is an economic dwarf and that GDP stagnated between 2012 and 2022., or that Russian population has been decreasing (even before the invasion of Ukraine.

[candide]

9 hours ago, Marsupienemi said:

Have you ever heard about the BRICS?

Have you realized that each and every time a country who talked about the need of using a different currency than the USD for international trading and especially petrol, this country received a visit of the US army ? 

Zelinski and Macron are USA pawns and yes they sacrificed Ukraine to slow down Russia and the BRICS+ in their desire of creating a new currency for international trading, based on gold and not owned by any country.

And it's just a matter of time before they succeed. Just have a look on recent big purchases of gold by the USA and the EU central bank to understand they don't believe they will be able to stop them...

 

A question remains, how far the USA are ready to go to save the USD ? WWIII ?

Have they made a decision about this new currency, or just talking about it?

Is China ready to drop the Yen and have a currency not controled by the CPC? Which countries are by far the main economic partners of BRICS countries (the U.S, NATO countries and their allies, Japan, OZ, SK....)?

 

It seems that It's convenient to hide Russia's low GDP behind the whole BRICS GDP, which is mainly about China and India (two countries which have been in conflict for years). The BRICS are neither a strategic alliance nor a trade zone.

[Hummin]

21 hours ago, ericbj said:

The article is interesting, and much of it is doubtlessly valid.  But it is at the same time a propaganda piece, and, as any good propagandist knows, verifiable information must be included with falsehood.

 

War is war.

 

The US and NATO sought, for a number of years, to provoke Russia into a conflict with the Ukraine.  Believing, nonetheless, that the Ukraine would be crushed in short order.  The Ukraine was to be sacrificed for NATO's objective of justifying massive economic sanctions based upon 'Russian aggression'.

 

The US/NATO goal was Russia's economic and political collapse.
But their projections seem to be proving faulty as regards this end-result.

 

Who is to blame for the prolonged bloodshed and destruction?
And the refusal to negotiate a settlement?

 

I guess most people have heard of the Gladio operations.  They and similar atrocities are history.  But those responsible in US Naval Intelligence and the CIA have never been held to account.  So what are these organisations up to today?

 

People who believe Russia blew up the Nord Stream Pipelines, as implied in the article, have never examined the available evidence.
Or prefer to blinker their thinking.

 

Fighting for the same resources is by economic forces and politics, until it doesnt work anymore. 

 

Global politics is chess with more than two players, and everyone wants to win. There is no middle ground