Russia’s Potential Arms Deal with Houthis Heightens Tensions in Middle East

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U.S. intelligence agencies are issuing warnings about a possible escalation in Middle East tensions, as Russia considers arming Houthi militants in Yemen with advanced anti-ship missiles. This move is seen as retaliation for the Biden administration’s support of Ukrainian military actions against Russia. The intelligence has prompted concerns within the U.S. military and government about the implications of such an arms transfer.

 

The situation arises as General Erik Kurilla, the top U.S. Middle East commander, has expressed concerns in a classified letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Kurilla highlighted that current military operations are failing to deter Houthi attacks on shipping routes in the Red Sea. He emphasized the need for a broader strategic approach to counter these threats effectively.

 

 

In response to the potential Russian arms deal, the White House has initiated confidential diplomatic efforts to dissuade Moscow from providing the missiles to the Iranian-backed Houthis. The administration is leveraging a third country to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin, attempting to prevent the delivery of these advanced weapons. However, officials have not disclosed which country is acting as the intermediary.

 

 

 

The combination of intelligence reports and Kurilla’s warnings has raised questions about the adequacy of the current U.S. strategy to counter Houthi attacks on crucial waterways. An administration official revealed that Central Command has been tasked with preparing a comprehensive list of potential targets, including specific militants, for possible military strikes. Some U.S. officials believe more aggressive measures could have been implemented earlier to safeguard commercial shipping, such as targeting larger weapons-storage facilities and Houthi leaders.

 

Should Russia proceed with arming the Houthis, it would mark a significant escalation in its ongoing confrontation with Washington. This development comes amidst Russia’s efforts to strengthen ties with North Korea and Iran and secure China’s support for its defense industry. Analysts suggest that Russia might be using the threat of supplying missiles to the Houthis as leverage to discourage the U.S. from further supporting Ukraine.

 

General Kurilla’s letter advocates for a comprehensive “whole of government” approach, combining economic, diplomatic, and military measures to deter Houthi aggression in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait. Over the past eight months, at least 30 ships have been damaged, with two sinking as a result of Houthi attacks. A defense official noted that Kurilla’s memo conveyed a stark warning: “U.S. service members will die if we continue going this way.”

 

The Biden administration has authorized limited military actions, including strikes against Houthi missiles and drones poised for launch. However, some Central Command officials argue that these measures have been insufficient in preventing the Houthis from consistently threatening commercial shipping. One U.S. official commented on the current strategy, stating, “If you tell the military to re-establish freedom of navigation and then you tell them to only be defensive, it isn’t going to work. It is all about protecting ships without affecting the root cause.”

 

The Houthis possess a diverse arsenal of weapons for attacking ships, including drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned boats, many supplied by Iran. The potential addition of Russian anti-ship missiles would significantly enhance their capabilities. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, remarked, “The Houthis have the most robust anti-ship capabilities among Iran’s regional proxy network. But Russian anti-ship weapons would represent a qualitative leap and add more teeth to the existing Houthi maritime threat.”

 

Middle East Eye reported last month that Russia had previously contemplated providing anti-ship cruise missiles to the Houthis but was dissuaded by Saudi Arabia. Despite this, U.S. officials continue to see indications that Putin might deliver the missiles to the Houthis in retaliation for President Biden’s decision to support Ukrainian strikes within Russia. Last month, Putin warned of a potential response to U.S. policies, stating, “The response can be asymmetrical, and we will think about that.”

 

While the exact nature of the intelligence regarding Russia’s plans remains unclear, there have been sightings of Houthi representatives in Russia. If missiles were to be delivered, they could potentially be smuggled through established Iranian routes. The Russian Embassy in Washington has not responded to requests for comment on this matter. The Houthis have vowed to target ships heading to Israeli ports, but many attacks have been against civilian vessels with no ties to Israel, according to a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report.

 

U.S. officials have observed that the Houthis and their Iranian backers are utilizing commercial ship tracking websites to identify and target vessels. The U.S. has warned companies providing these data services to restrict Houthi access and advised foreign governments to do the same. The Houthis have also threatened U.S. Navy vessels and allied ships, with recent close encounters involving missiles and drones launched from Yemen.

 

In line with General Kurilla’s call for intensified efforts, the Biden administration has implemented measures to complement military actions. Sanctions have been imposed on individuals and entities funding the Houthis and their leaders. Additionally, a United Nations Security Council resolution, sponsored by the U.S. and Japan, demands an end to Houthi attacks. The U.S. has designated the Houthis as specially designated global terrorists, reversing a previous decision to remove them from the list.

 

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller recently announced further sanctions on several individuals and entities, as well as five ships, stating they “have played critical roles in financing the Houthis’ destabilizing activities.” As the situation unfolds, the potential for further escalation remains a pressing concern, with diplomatic and military actions continuing to play a crucial role in addressing the threat.

 

Related:

Israeli Retaliation Targets Houthis in Yemen Following Tel Aviv Drone Strike

 

Credit: WSJ 2024-07-22

 

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