Missed Opportunity to Destroy Russia's Best Warplanes, Whitehouse Said No

[Social Media]

 

Ukraine has been pressing for a chance to neutralize Russia's aerial advantage, which has had devastating effects on Ukrainian cities and military positions. For months, Ukrainian officials have been appealing to their Western allies for permission to use advanced ballistic missiles, specifically the American-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), to strike Russian airfields. These requests have been consistently denied, with allies citing the risk of escalation in the war that has now entered its 29th month.

 

The repeated refusals have pushed Ukrainian forces to ramp up their efforts using domestically produced drones. One significant recent attack was on the Morozovsk air base in southern Russia, located 200 miles from the front line in eastern Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, this drone raid successfully destroyed a Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber, damaged two more Su-34s, and burned down an ammunition warehouse. The directorate released satellite imagery showing extensive areas of scorched earth, which they attributed to the detonation of the ammunition following the attack.

 

Despite the success of this operation, it is bittersweet. Similar drone strikes are becoming increasingly difficult as Russian forces strategically relocate their warplanes to more secure locations, diminishing the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks and highlighting a critical missed opportunity to deal a decisive blow with the more powerful ATACMS missiles.

 

The strategic objective of these Ukrainian attacks is clear: by targeting airfields near the Russia-Ukraine border, Ukraine aims to disrupt the key components of Russia's glide-bombing campaign. The Su-34 fighter-bombers, equipped with satellite-guided glide bombs, have been particularly destructive. These bombs, some weighing over three tons, are launched from beyond the reach of Ukraine's air defenses and have been extensively used to target both military and civilian infrastructure.

 

The KAB glide bombs, with their pop-out wings, allow the Su-34s to strike from a safe distance. Despite their frequent inaccuracies, the bombs' sheer destructive power can demolish or severely damage buildings, trapping people in collapsed structures and complicating rescue operations. These munitions have played a crucial role in Russian victories along the 700-mile front line, turning urban environments into death traps and forcing defenders to retreat from obliterated positions.

 

The strategic importance of disrupting this glide-bombing campaign cannot be overstated. Earlier this summer, there was a fleeting opportunity to significantly damage Russia's KAB infrastructure. Dozens of Su-34s were parked in the open at Voronezh Malshevo air base in southern Russia, just 100 miles from the Ukrainian border. Recognizing the potential to cripple a substantial portion of Russia's aerial strike capabilities, Ukrainian officials urgently sought permission to launch ATACMS at the base. The ATACMS, with their near-impossible-to-intercept technology, represented a chance to deal a major blow to Russian air power.

 

However, the Biden administration, citing longstanding concerns about escalation, refused to change its policy. "Our policy has not changed," stated Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security advisor. As a result, Ukraine was restricted to using ATACMS only within Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory. This decision, observed closely by Russian intelligence, led to a swift and proactive response.

 

Russian forces relocated the Su-34s and other valuable military assets to bases further from the Ukrainian border, significantly reducing their vulnerability. Between late June and mid-July, these relocations included moving many Su-34s to bases hundreds of miles away from the border, beyond the range of the most powerful Ukrainian drones and ATACMS. While some Su-34s and KAB bombs remain at border airfields like Morozovsk, the majority are now positioned out of reach of Ukrainian strikes, rendering potential future ATACMS raids less impactful.

 

The current situation highlights a critical strategic miscalculation. The refusal to permit ATACMS strikes on Russian bases when the opportunity was ripe has allowed Russia to safeguard its warplanes and munitions. This has made it increasingly difficult for Ukraine to counter the ongoing glide-bombing campaign effectively. While Ukraine continues to inflict damage on Russian assets, the scale necessary to end the glide-bombing threat requires a more comprehensive and powerful approach—one that may no longer be feasible due to the smarter redeployment of Russian forces.

 

The persistence of a handful of Su-34s and KAB bombs at vulnerable airfields offers some hope for continued Ukrainian resistance. However, achieving the overarching goal of neutralizing the glide-bombing campaign will demand a reassessment of strategy and perhaps a reconsideration of the restrictions placed on Ukraine's use of advanced weaponry. As the war drags on, the balance between strategic caution and the necessity of decisive action will remain a pivotal aspect of the broader conflict dynamics.

 

Dhaval Joshi, an analyst at BCA Research, highlighted the unprecedented nature of the current situation: "A decoupling between robust growth in the economy and steadily rising unemployment is unprecedented in our lifetimes. Through the past 60 years, whenever the US unemployment rate has increased by 0.5% in a year, taking it to the cusp of recession, GDP growth has also been on the cusp of recession. That is, until now." He noted that unemployment was rising not due to widespread layoffs but because labor supply was increasing faster than labor demand. The stock market appeared more vulnerable to a recession than the real economy, with tech stocks, particularly those exposed to the artificial intelligence boom, being among the hardest hit.

 

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine illustrates a complex interplay of military strategy, political decision-making, and the ever-present risk of escalation. The denied requests for ATACMS strikes represent a significant strategic setback for Ukraine, one that has allowed Russia to reposition its assets and protect its aerial strike capabilities. As the conflict continues, Ukraine's ability to adapt its strategy and leverage its available resources will be crucial in countering Russia's aerial advantage and mitigating the devastating impact of the ongoing glide-bombing campaign.

 

Credit: Forbes  2024-08-07

 

 

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[KhunLA]

Do you need any more evidence it's simply a proxy war for profits ?  First paragraph says it all.   

"You're not allowed to try to win, just keep dying" 

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, Social Media said:

The current situation highlights a critical strategic miscalculation.

In who's opinion?

IMO the calculation in Washington is continuing the fight to the last Ukrainian soldier vs MAD.

[TedG]

On 8/6/2024 at 10:36 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

In who's opinion?

IMO the calculation in Washington is continuing the fight to the last Ukrainian soldier vs MAD.

Russian propaganda. 

[Irrumator]

On 8/7/2024 at 8:51 AM, KhunLA said:

Do you need any more evidence it's simply a proxy war for profits ?  First paragraph says it all.   

"You're not allowed to try to win, just keep dying" 

Quite.  

Typical American policy - deny war-winning military and financial strategies to other countries so as to prolong the money-making process to the benefit of the USA.  They did it in the 40s and they're still doing it.  

So rake in the dollars, boys and forget the tens of thousands being killed and injured to enrich Uncle Sam (who incidentally has NEVER won a war when acting alone for a few centuries).  Oh, sorry, yes, little countries on their doorstep with no defence facilities to speak of.  As for Vietnam  - anyone got any ideas about that ...?

[impulse]

OP title should be "Ukraine proposes kicking off WW3 and nuclear winter, and the US says, not with our equipment".

 

[Harsh Jones]

According to US biased Wikipedia , Russia has 3000+ active military aircraft. This is my first time paging through Ukraine war topics on this forum. I knew it would be insane but not this insane