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Posted
2 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

 According to a Fox News poll of Pennsylvania, Trump is running 5 percentage points behind Harris among voters ages 65 and over, slipping back from the previous month, when he and Harris were tied with that demographic. It’s a major shift from 2020, when Trump carried 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania in a losing effort in the state.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612

At this point, I don't care about polls. Hillary won all the polls.

 

Voting data is what matters.

 

I'll let @illisdean post polls, he can post them even after Trump loses, if it makes him feel better.

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Posted

Bottle crashing time. Dem strategists are now hoping for a 480,000 vote lead in Pennsylvania. Their original target(s) are impossible to hit now. 

 

Their current lead ( 400,000 ) will be destroyed by the GOP on election day. To put it in perspective, the last time the GOP win on election day was that low ( only 400,000 ) was 1968. 

 

In 2020 the GOP election day win in Penn State was 1 million. 

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Posted (edited)

Reports coming in that the Dems have moved resources out of North Carolina ( accepted defeat ) and are trying to shore up Virginia. 

 

GOP is hoping to keep the Dem election day lead under 250,000. I can't work out the maths but the GOP thinks the current Dem lead is 150,000. My maths says 208,000 Dem lead. 

 

If Va votes Trump, Harris is kaput. 

 

 

 

.

Edited by theblether
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Posted
1 hour ago, theblether said:

Reports coming in that the Dems have moved resources out of North Carolina ( accepted defeat ) and are trying to shore up Virginia. 

 

GOP is hoping to keep the Dem election day lead under 250,000. I can't work out the maths but the GOP thinks the current Dem lead is 150,000. My maths says 208,000 Dem lead. 

 

If Va votes Trump, Harris is kaput. 

 

 

 

.

 

The gender gap is certainly present in early voting....not a promising set of numbers for Trump.

 

Screenshot2024-11-02at6_07_45am.png.bab4067364476885b807c623d026285b.png

 

Not to mention:

 

Even with GOP voters having cast more ballots in battleground states of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, Sams argued the Democratic nominee’s campaign is fine with the current numbers and added that they have surpassed surpassed its “internal metric” from two years ago. 

 

“We feel really good about the numbers that we’re seeing in our own early vote push,” Sams said. “We’re exceeding our own internal metrics from 2022, and we’re excited about bringing us home next week.”

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4960816-harris-campaign-senior-advisor-early-voting-numbers/

 

 

 

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Posted
38 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

What early voting has told us so far about how the 2024 election will turn out

A ‘silver surge’ for the Dems in Pennsylvania

A reversal in the opposite direction seems to be underway in Pennsylvania, where registered Democrats accounted for about 58 percent of the senior vote, a key constituency for Republicans, who only have about 35 percent over the 65+ crowd so far.

“Our expectation going into the early vote was that it would, in general, skew substantially more Republican than in 2020,” Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart, told Politico of this “silver surge.”

My opinion is that Pennsylvania is almost gone for Trump.

 

Michigan looks bad for Trump, and Trump won't visit Wisconsin again.

 

That's pretty much all Harris needs to win. The remaining swing states are too close to call.

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Posted
20 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/virginia-results

 

Virginia is a lock for Harris.

 

With 50%+ of the electorate having voted already, plus outstanding absentee ballots, with a 56% female participation, Trump would need Election Day turnout to be overwhelmingly heavy and male, which is not going to happen. Big turnout favors the Dems.

 

Screenshot_20241102_082836_Chrome.jpg

 

56% female early voting is not unusual. 

 

But to be clear, I'll be shocked if Trump wins Va

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Posted

Ohio is polling fairly close, and early voting is close, as well. I don't think Ohio will go for Harris, but it will be tight.

 

The Iowa early voting is close, as well.

 

Nobody knows what will happen with turnout on Election Day. Will there be 55% turnout? Higher than that, and it's a win for the Dems.

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Posted
On 10/29/2024 at 8:21 PM, Jingthing said:

You don't know anything about Puerto Ricans and how they have been so disrespected and not seen as the citizens that they are, the history of Puerto Rico, the previous racist attacks by Trump on Puerto Ricans, and the disgusting way Trump mistreated Puerto Ricans after their two big storms, cutting off aid but throwing paper towels at them like zoo animals during his term with the clear reason that he didn't worry about their state in the next election because they're not a state, do you?

It wasn't an off color joke.

It was a PUNCH DOWN RACIST attack at a white nationalist event.

Also that was vetted by the Trump campaign and they approved it!

So when they say now it doesn't reflect them, they are LYING. 

 

What's with the pearl clutch? Tony Hinchcliffe roasts people, that's all he does. Even Jon Stewart thinks he's a hoot.

 

 

Posted
3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

 

Drivel. Democrats confirm they have removed financial resources from North Carolina because "we booked ads and had some extra money and we didn't know what to do with it" 

 

If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. Also, same reporter - Republicans out in high numbers, Democrats in lower than expected numbers, independents out at the same rate as Dems. "We don't know how the independents are voting." 

 

 

 

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Posted
35 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Concerning early voting, it's not 2020 any more and there is no COVID. So comparison with 2020 is not useful.

 

Therefore, the current Pennsylvania firewall of 422,000 may be all Harris needs to win, if Election Day doesn't have historical Republican turnout.

 

And I don't know anyone significant predicting that Texas will go Blue in 2024.

 

Not this year as they have learned to quit with that nonsense. Nearly as nonsensical as thinking Ohio will go blue this year. 

 

I know it's not 2020. No Dem strategists hoped for a mere 420,000 early vote lead at this election. Especially when the GOP won election day by a million votes in Penn State DURING COVID YEAR. 

 

Anyway we'll find out soon enough. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

Not this year as they have learned to quit with that nonsense. Nearly as nonsensical as thinking Ohio will go blue this year. 

 

I know it's not 2020. No Dem strategists hoped for a mere 420,000 early vote lead at this election. Especially when the GOP won election day by a million votes in Penn State DURING COVID YEAR. 

 

Anyway we'll find out soon enough. 

You're making my point for me.

 

Dems avoided Election Day in 2020 because of COVID. There is no COVID this year, so Dems will show up on Election Day.

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Posted

Nevada has closed with 1,085,000 early votes. 

 

Mail in votes will still be collected. 

 

GOP 39%

Dems 34% 

 

Jon Ralston reckons it will take a landslide of late votes from Clark County to overturn the GOP lead. Looks like Nevada has gone for Trump, and Arizona - we'll see. 

 

 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, theblether said:

Nevada has closed with 1,085,000 early votes. 

 

Mail in votes will still be collected. 

 

GOP 39%

Dems 34% 

 

Jon Ralston reckons it will take a landslide of late votes from Clark County to overturn the GOP lead. Looks like Nevada has gone for Trump, and Arizona - we'll see. 

 

 

 

Nevada for Harris. Yes AZ for Trump.

Lots of those GOP votes are GOP women for Harris.

You'll see. 

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Posted
8 hours ago, theblether said:

 

Not this year as they have learned to quit with that nonsense. Nearly as nonsensical as thinking Ohio will go blue this year. 

 

I know it's not 2020. No Dem strategists hoped for a mere 420,000 early vote lead at this election. Especially when the GOP won election day by a million votes in Penn State DURING COVID YEAR. 

 

Anyway we'll find out soon enough. 

Nobody thinks Ohio will be blue, dude.

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