My Investor Friends are all "happy campers". Smiles an complacancy all over. Boy, did we have a good run.

 

But, the fact that no bull-market went on forever without major "corrections", makes me look over my shoulder. I am wondering what will "the monkey wrench" be this time around to put a temporary halt to this "feeding frenzie".

 

Donalds tariffs ? More inflation? FED can not lower interest rates? Trade war in general?
Possible future earnings dissapointements?
Geo-political "disruptions"?

 

What are other "monkey wrenches" that YOU can see? Tell me.
 

16 minutes ago, swissie said:

What are other "monkey wrenches" that YOU can see? Tell me.

Your health could deteriorate, or you have an accident. 

 

I can't think of a bigger '"monkey wrench" than that. 

 

Health is wealth. 

25 minutes ago, swissie said:

My Investor Friends are all "happy campers". Smiles an complacancy all over. Boy, did we have a good run.

 

But, the fact that no bull-market went on forever without major "corrections", makes me look over my shoulder. I am wondering what will "the monkey wrench" be this time around to put a temporary halt to this "feeding frenzie".

 

Donalds tariffs ? More inflation? FED can not lower interest rates? Trade war in general?
Possible future earnings dissapointements?
Geo-political "disruptions"?

 

What are other "monkey wrenches" that YOU can see? Tell me.
 

If the economic ignoramus in the White House persists, I can foresee a world-wide recession.

 

The ship has already sailed with environmental issues. Buy property where there are no floods, hurricanes or bushfires. Insurance premiums will go through the roof in those areas, or may not even be available.

14 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Your health could deteriorate, or you have an accident. 

 

I can't think of a bigger '"monkey wrench" than that. 

 

Health is wealth. 

Fully agree. In my home country, 50% die without leaving a "last will".  Indicating that they will live "very long time" and my investments "can only go up" forever.

16 hours ago, swissie said:

Fully agree. In my home country, 50% die without leaving a "last will".  Indicating that they will live "very long time" and my investments "can only go up" forever.

I've had a will ever since I started my first life insurance policy, and that was when I was in my 20's. 

According to a source we still can't mention here on aseannow, some big US hedge funds have big short positions to crash the stock market next 1 or 2 months from now.  I don't care , stocks are over valued , but usually it takes gold down with it. 

So the monkey wrench could be Blackrock and hedge funds turning even more against 47.

US debt could be a problem.  I see some nasty budget battles coming up.  Last year the deficit was $1.8 trillion.  That needs to come down.

The global stock markets move in cycles.  Cycles are measured over time.

 

It has been a long time since the last significant correction.  One is due very soon.  Past patterns also tell us that the next correction will be big, and last many years.

 

What will be the catalyst?  Time.

The average of the S and P over the past 3 years is around 11%.  Not much higher then the historical average.  Add AI just at the beginning of its growth the markets are not tremendously over valued.  

No,  it will not last forever but it can continue for a few more years especially with a business friendly President who has said good stock market returns are important for his legacy.

On 2/4/2025 at 9:33 PM, Lacessit said:

Insurance premiums will go through the roof in those areas, or may not even be available.

You should look in the mirror of the Democrats. That ship has already sailed in California and it did so under a Democrat Governor and President.  However, I'll not just point a finger at California.  I think flood insurance supported by the US government in high risk area should be (and is in some places) severely restricted.

47 minutes ago, AgMech Cowboy said:

You should look in the mirror of the Democrats. That ship has already sailed in California and it did so under a Democrat Governor and President.  However, I'll not just point a finger at California.  I think flood insurance supported by the US government in high risk area should be (and is in some places) severely restricted.

People live in earthquake zones, next to volcanoes. or at risk of tsunamis. They live on the San Andreas fault. Florida has shown what a couple of hurricanes can do.

 

Insurance companies have entire departments dedicated to risk assessment. IMO it's only equitable that people living in low risk areas should pay less than those who don't.

On 2/6/2025 at 2:03 AM, FlorC said:

According to a source we still can't mention here on aseannow, some big US hedge funds have big short positions to crash the stock market next 1 or 2 months from now.  I don't care , stocks are over valued , but usually it takes gold down with it. 

So the monkey wrench could be Blackrock and hedge funds turning even more against 47.

Always interested what the "Black Rock" guys do. Even their customers are not so sure. Any "allowable" links?.

 

As quoted by you, former ratios, for example Gold versus other equities don't seem to work anymore in form of an "Insurance".

 

It's eighter everything up or down simultainiously. Running for a harbor called "cash".

 

^ Biggest example was the 2008 crash. Gold went down too.

No links that are allowed here.

Now that the 2 tariffs are delayed and probably cancelled and we still don't know the tariffs for the EU , the crash might not happen.