Myanmar Quake's Shockwaves to Hit Thai Economy, Escalate US Trade Concerns

[snoop1130]

File photo for reference only

 

Last Friday’s earthquake in Myanmar not only shook Thailand physically but also posed substantial economic repercussions, with damage estimates around 20 billion baht, according to the Kasikorn Research Centre. As the tremors caused significant disruptions, particularly in Bangkok and Chiang Mai, the centre predicts a potential drop in Thailand’s GDP forecast by 0.06%, bringing it below 2.4% for the year.

 

Adding a geopolitical layer, the Kasikorn Research Centre warns that upcoming US tariffs under the Trump administration could further slash the GDP by 0.3%. These tariffs, expected to be imposed this Wednesday, threaten Thai exports to one of its major markets.

 

The earthquake's impact is especially felt in the service sector, with a slowdown in economic activities as inspections and repairs become immediate priorities for households. This redirection of household finances could suppress consumer spending.

 

Nevertheless, the centre notes a possible uptick in horizontal housing markets as safety-conscious buyers may shy away from high-rise living, favouring traditional houses instead. Conversely, already sluggish condominium sales in Bangkok might see further decline as safety concerns mount.

 

 

 

Tourism, a vital component of Thailand's economy, also looks set to take a hit, with foreign arrival forecasts likely needing a downward adjustment from the initial 37.5 million.

 

Amid these concerns, the Kasikorn Research Centre anticipates monetary policy adjustments. The Bank of Thailand might expedite a policy interest rate cut by 25 basis points as early as April to mitigate economic stress, with further reductions possible later in the year.

 

Looking ahead, non-performing loans (NPLs), especially in real estate and construction, might rise again. Following recovery signs post-COVID-19, these sectors could face challenges by year's end due to compounded pressures from natural disasters and international trade disputes, reported Thai PBS World.

 

-- 2025-04-01

 

 

[Walker88]

I guess we'll see if there is, or isn't, any validity to the "broken window effect".

 

.06% is not a particularly big hit, a mere 20% of the impact expected from US tariffs. In fact, the cost of repairs is money spent, so that .06% could be adjusted downward. More bricks and mortar, and fewer donuts or iPhones might cancel each other out.

 

A larger concern would be any effect the quake might have on tourism (covered in another thread). The jury remains out on that, though memories tend to be short. I would bet the trade war started by POTUS is going to have a much greater effect on the entire world economy, so .3% may well be overly optimistic.

[steven100]

who really cares to be honest  !!