China’s Backing of Myanmar Junta May Be a Costly Miscalculation

[geovalin]

The Irrawaddy

 

China’s increasing interference in Myanmar’s civil war risks turning Beijing’s strategy on its head, as its deepening support for the junta alienates ethnic armed groups, fuels resistance, and threatens regional stability.

 

After the junta lost control of Lashio in northern Shan State last year, Beijing stepped in—pressuring the ethnic Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) to withdraw. The group complied after China arrested its leader, shut border crossings, and blocked supplies to rebel-held areas. Lashio was soon handed back to the regime, marking a rare victory for junta forces in Operation 1027’s wake.

 

This overt involvement marks a sharp departure from China’s long-professed “non-interference” stance. China has since applied similar pressure on the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Kachin Independence Army (KIA), warning them not to attack Chinese interests in Myanmar—particularly Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Kyaukphyu and Bhamo.

 

China's true motive is clear: it fears the junta’s collapse would create a power vacuum on its border, destabilising its strategic and economic footholds. Beijing sees the regime as a loyal client—shunned by the West and entirely dependent on Chinese money, weapons, and diplomacy.

 

But this gamble is fraying. The EAOs, now stronger and more united than ever, have rebuffed ceasefire overtures and refused to cede towns hard-won in battle. Many are increasingly aligned with the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) and its People’s Defence Forces, which China explicitly opposes.

 

Resistance leaders, such as AA’s Major General Tun Myat Naing, have warned that Myanmar’s future cannot be dictated by ethnic loyalties or foreign powers. “Seventy years of civil war have shown that ethnic-based thinking alone doesn’t work,” he said.

 

While China bankrolls junta operations and remains silent on its war crimes—school bombings, village shelling, and mass killings—it continues to underestimate the resilience of Myanmar’s people. Attempts to sideline Spring Revolution forces while striking deals with EAOs may backfire, further entrenching conflict and damaging China’s long-term interests.

 

In backing an increasingly brutal and ineffective regime, China may find itself on the wrong side of history—once again propping up a military too weak to win, and too ruthless to survive without foreign support.

 

-2025-06-19