China’s Rare Earth Ultimatum to Myanmar Rebels Threatens Global Supply

[geovalin]

KIA, the Irrawaddy

 

China has warned ethnic rebels in Myanmar to halt their offensive on the key northern town of Bhamo—or face a rare earth export ban that could rattle global markets.

 

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), one of the strongest armed groups resisting Myanmar’s military junta, has been fighting to seize Bhamo since December. The town lies near the Chinese border and close to lucrative rare-earth mining zones that supply nearly half the world’s heavy rare earths—critical for electric vehicles and wind turbines.

 

China, which dominates global rare earth processing, reportedly told the KIA it would stop buying minerals from KIA-controlled territory unless the group pulls back from Bhamo. The warning, revealed by Reuters and based on insider accounts, marks a sharp escalation in Beijing’s efforts to use economic leverage to shape outcomes in Myanmar’s war.

 

“The message was clear: stop the offensive or face a blockade,” a KIA official said. Beijing also hinted at future trade incentives if the rebels comply.

 

So far, the KIA has not backed down. It raised mining taxes and throttled output after taking control of the rare earth belt last year—moves that have already disrupted Chinese imports and sent global prices for elements like terbium soaring.

 

The KIA believes China won’t follow through, given its reliance on the minerals. But a prolonged halt could squeeze global supply. Exports from Myanmar to China are already down by half compared to 2024.

 

“Prices could shoot up further,” warned Neha Mukherjee of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, adding that non-Chinese supply is already tight.

 

The battle for Bhamo is not just about minerals. Its capture would sever key junta supply lines and isolate military bases across northern Myanmar. The junta has responded with heavy airstrikes, flattening swathes of the town and displacing thousands.

 

China, a major backer of the junta, appears less interested in ending the war than in managing it. Analysts say Beijing wants stability near its border and continued access to natural resources—not regime change.

 

Still, the rebels remain defiant. “If we take Bhamo, China will have no choice but to deal with us,” a KIA commander said.

 

With global rare earth markets in the balance, the outcome of this battle may soon be felt far beyond Myanmar’s borders.

 

-2025-07-09

[FlorC]

22 hours ago, geovalin said:

China has warned ethnic rebels in Myanmar to halt their offensive on the key northern town of Bhamo—or face a rare earth export ban that could rattle global markets.

What ?

 

Then they sell it to someone else.

KIA helped by outsiders (US) ?

[Burma Bill]

On 7/9/2025 at 9:38 AM, geovalin said:

Beijing also hinted at future trade incentives if the rebels comply.

 

Well I never.

I hope the Chinese will now supply modern anti-aircraft weapons to the rebels to shoot down the Junta's air force that is indiscriminately killing so many innocent civilians.