Politics Thailand's PM Faces Legal Battle Amid Economic Strain

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The Thai political scene is simmering as Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra grapples with a crucial legal challenge, just a year into her tenure. The Constitutional Court is poised to deliver a verdict on 29th August regarding the "audio clip case," a decision that could not only jeopardise her leadership but also destabilise her government’s policy agenda.

 

Paetongtarn ascended to the premiership on 16th August 2024, following the disqualification of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin. She now faces scrutiny after a leaked conversation believed to involve her and Cambodia’s Senate President, Hun Sen, sparked questions about her conduct and eligibility.

 

In a significant move, the Constitutional Court has temporarily suspended her from duties, intensifying a leadership vacuum at a critical juncture. Simultaneously, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) has initiated its own investigation, expected to reach conclusions in six months.

 

The government, a coalition of 11 parties, is already strained by internal discord, particularly between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, which has stalled major policy implementations. This turmoil has further eroded public confidence. A recent Nida Poll revealed a stark shift in opinion, with opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut leading in popularity.

 

The past year has seen Paetongtarn struggle to deliver on her key promises, despite efforts to highlight achievements. Economic initiatives, like the 20-baht flat-fare electric train, have faltered amid accusations of improper budgetary allocations, raising fears of constitutional breaches reminiscent of past political controversies.

 

The digital wallet programme, meant to reinvigorate Thailand’s economy, has instead embroiled the government in legal disputes. Allegations of unlawful budget reallocations have been lodged with the NACC, echoing a precedent set by former Deputy House Speaker Pichet Chuamuangphan’s disqualification over similar charges.

 

The political instability casts a long shadow over Thailand’s economic prospects. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has downgraded the 2025 growth forecast to a meagre 1.7% from a robust 3.0% predicted last year. Key factors influencing this outlook include:

 

• US Tariff Policy: Thailand faces a 19% tariff rate which could reshape its trade dynamics.
• Middle East Turmoil: An escalation between Israel and Iran could hike oil prices, impacting inflation and economic growth.
• Border Tensions: Ongoing Thai-Cambodian conflicts pose a threat to trade and regional peace.
• Stimulus Measures: Success hinges on the proper disbursement of the 157-billion-baht stimulus package.
• Political Stability: The imminent court ruling on Paetongtarn's case could determine government continuity.

 

Observers caution that the court's decision is a pivotal moment for the Prime Minister's career and the broader trajectory of Thailand’s political and economic future. As the nation holds its breath, the intersection of legal hurdles and economic fragility paints a complex picture of challenges ahead.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Nation 2025-08-25