Global Correction

[up-country_sinclair]

so what happened to this 'global correction'? some markets have dropped a bit, but the world is still spinning.

[VegasVic]

so what happened to this 'global correction'? some markets have dropped a bit, but the world is still spinning.

I agree with you that the world is still spining, but you have to admit it is a real Jungle out there up(ton)-country Sinclair! Many posters on thaivisa are famous for reposting articles from liberal blogsites or Harvard professors blasting G.Bush or the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy and it has a strong audience amongst the rank and file here, but as many of us know the U.S. and the world economies will get throught this current financial crisis just fine, and the chicken littles hoarding gold and saying the end is near will be left holding the bag and viewing the glass of water as half empty just as their forerunners have done in generations past. Oil, gold and the Euro have been bid up in recent months on pure trader speculation by those same guys who brought you those wounderful CDO's (there is virtually no market left for those CDO's so they went over to play with Oil and gold). The Ceo's of Valero, Tesoro and other independant refiners have been interviewed to death recently and to a man they state that there is no justifiable reason for oil to be at a level above $60-$65/bbl except for the traders in the pits in Chicago and New York artificially escalsting it there, and gold is just following oils lead, the demand for gold in commercial and industrial use has actually been declining. This trap for fools has been tumbling down over the last few trading days as oil has come down from nearly $100/bbl to $87/bbl and gold from $850/ounce to $780/ounce, this trend will continue over the coming days,weeks and months. I get a kick out of the quotes here on TV from Goldman Sachs saying the Euro and Asian currencies will continue to rise throughout 2008, all the while Goldman has recently been paring back their exposure to Chinese and Indian markets. Remember it was one arm of Goldman that brought you those wounderful packaged CDO's, all the while another other arm of Goldman was simultaneously shorting those same products! As for the dollar, George (the antichrist) Soros started shorting the dollar in the months following 9/11, and then really jumped on the dollar short bandwagon during 2003 and has been riding a one way bet for the last 4 years, that is until just recently when he has been covering that short position in the dollar, and low and behold just what has old Georgie boy been buying, "U.S. financials", in particular Countrywide The current financial crisis will wind down and the china bubble will eventually pop and while that event will also seem like the end of the world, I feel quite certain that life will go on and the world markets will continue to function in an orderly fashion. The glass of water is usually half full, but to those out there who prepetually see it as half empty then by all means keep on buying that gold and go long on the Euro( in between trips to the market loading up on those canned goods) Everyone out there have a great Christmass, Chanukah or Quanza and I will check back in here for some entertainment in another couple of months!

[LaoPo]

so what happened to this 'global correction'? some markets have dropped a bit, but the world is still spinning.

I agree with you that the world is still spining, but you have to admit it is a real Jungle out there up(ton)-country Sinclair! Many posters on thaivisa are famous for reposting articles from liberal blogsites or Harvard professors blasting G.Bush or the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy and it has a strong audience amongst the rank and file here, but as many of us know the U.S. and the world economies will get throught this current financial crisis just fine, and the chicken littles hoarding gold and saying the end is near will be left holding the bag and viewing the glass of water as half empty just as their forerunners have done in generations past. Oil, gold and the Euro have been bid up in recent months on pure trader speculation by those same guys who brought you those wounderful CDO's (there is virtually no market left for those CDO's so they went over to play with Oil and gold). The Ceo's of Valero, Tesoro and other independant refiners have been interviewed to death recently and to a man they state that there is no justifiable reason for oil to be at a level above $60-$65/bbl except for the traders in the pits in Chicago and New York artificially escalsting it there, and gold is just following oils lead, the demand for gold in commercial and industrial use has actually been declining. This trap for fools has been tumbling down over the last few trading days as oil has come down from nearly $100/bbl to $87/bbl and gold from $850/ounce to $780/ounce, this trend will continue over the coming days,weeks and months. I get a kick out of the quotes here on TV from Goldman Sachs saying the Euro and Asian currencies will continue to rise throughout 2008, all the while Goldman has recently been paring back their exposure to Chinese and Indian markets. Remember it was one arm of Goldman that brought you those wounderful packaged CDO's, all the while another other arm of Goldman was simultaneously shorting those same products! As for the dollar, George (the antichrist) Soros started shorting the dollar in the months following 9/11, and then really jumped on the dollar short bandwagon during 2003 and has been riding a one way bet for the last 4 years, that is until just recently when he has been covering that short position in the dollar, and low and behold just what has old Georgie boy been buying, "U.S. financials", in particular Countrywide The current financial crisis will wind down and the china bubble will eventually pop and while that event will also seem like the end of the world, I feel quite certain that life will go on and the world markets will continue to function in an orderly fashion. The glass of water is usually half full, but to those out there who prepetually see it as half empty then by all means keep on buying that gold and go long on the Euro( in between trips to the market loading up on those canned goods) Everyone out there have a great Christmass, Chanukah or Quanza and I will check back in here for some entertainment in another couple of months!

:D

1. you stay away for 2 months, without any explanation (some folks here were worried about you since we missed your 'big' mouth )

2. now you write your first -absolutely unreadable- post (since 2 months) and tell us you're off again for another couple of months ?

3. You just can't do that to us..... ...or....are you angry with me when I told you Countrywide would end up below $ 10.......and had an all time low of 8,21...?

COME BACK, you hear ?!

LaoPo

[fletchsmile]

so what happened to this 'global correction'? some markets have dropped a bit, but the world is still spinning.

You mean you missed it too . Actually most markets are up since the Chicken Little forecast mid-August.

BTW Historically and statistically (read into that what you will):

September tends to be a month for poor returns. October tends to be a bad month's for crashes. Both these came and went, despite all the bad news. December tends to be a strong month.

Personally I really can't see a global correction happening this month and spoiling Xmas. Besides I think Chicken Little will be busy with his pantomimes this month. So I think the skies are looking safe until 2008.

[lannarebirth]

It's always something....

[fletchsmile]

It's always something....

Interesting. Even with the spike it looks smaller than the 87 one, at around 200 rather than 260.

One thing I would question: If this is a reliable indicator of stock market crashes, why was there no spike in October 1997, which also saw the crash due to the Asian crisis as we know? Just curious.

[Naam]

so what happened to this 'global correction'? some markets have dropped a bit, but the world is still spinning.

LO AND BEHOLD! the world will stop spinning because of global warming. skies will be falling. som tam and mia nois will be unaffordable. fake viagra and cialis will take over the markets. one Baht will buy one US-Dollar. Scotland and Wales will join the European Union. all farangs must leave the kingdom not later than monday.

[fletchsmile]

so what happened to this 'global correction'? some markets have dropped a bit, but the world is still spinning.

LO AND BEHOLD! the world will stop spinning because of global warming. skies will be falling. som tam and mia nois will be unaffordable. fake viagra and cialis will take over the markets. one Baht will buy one US-Dollar. Scotland and Wales will join the European Union. all farangs must leave the kingdom not later than monday.

Which Monday? Let's be specific please - Otherwise that's like saying there's going to be a Global Correction and not specifying when.

[lannarebirth]

It's always something....

Interesting. Even with the spike it looks smaller than the 87 one, at around 200 rather than 260.

One thing I would question: If this is a reliable indicator of stock market crashes, why was there no spike in October 1997, which also saw the crash due to the Asian crisis as we know? Just curious.

Yes, it is smaller than the 1987 spike, but it is still in progress. So who knows how it will play out?

I don't think anything is a reliable indicator of market crashes (except maybe for margin debt excesses, which can;t predict when). I think 1997's crisis gave the appearance of spreading the pain more widely, whereas this current "crisis" is presently thought to be more localized to the US. Just a guess. Anyway, I'm long (at least till todays open).

[Naam]

so what happened to this 'global correction'? some markets have dropped a bit, but the world is still spinning.

LO AND BEHOLD! the world will stop spinning because of global warming. skies will be falling. som tam and mia nois will be unaffordable. fake viagra and cialis will take over the markets. one Baht will buy one US-Dollar. Scotland and Wales will join the European Union. all farangs must leave the kingdom not later than monday.

Which Monday? Let's be specific please - Otherwise that's like saying there's going to be a Global Correction and not specifying when.

what a question Fletch! it will be Monday after Good Friday when on Sunday Manchester United loses the cricket game against Dynamo Moscow

[disgruntled]

Someone is always making money somewhere. Two days ago the voices I heard were more positive then they turned negative.

Are we sinking, Captain?

I'm not the captain.

Then where is he?

[samran]

to me this thread is like that scene from "Austin Powers" where the security guard is standing there screaming in front of a steam roller, 30 meters away, moving towards him at about 1 metre/second.

You'd think with all these 'warnings' policy makers and business would have time to react. Unlike that poor security guard who is a frozen in headlights, I belive that the policy makers and corportae America are (relatively) smart enough to move us out of harms way before the slow moving steam roller hits us all.

[lannarebirth]

"When Santa Claus doth fail to call, the Bears will come to Broad and Wall"

Think this first 3-5 months of '08 is going to end up lower. Initial targets 1354 SPX, uglier ones too. Doesn't preclude a run higher here though. Later this year could be quite bullish.

[midas]

"When Santa Claus doth fail to call, the Bears will come to Broad and Wall"

Think this first 3-5 months of '08 is going to end up lower. Initial targets 1354 SPX, uglier ones too. Doesn't preclude a run higher here though. Later this year could be quite bullish.

Based on what ?

[lannarebirth]

Based on the decennial pattern for one thing. Also if the correction does ensue, I imagine many holding non dollar currencies would find the stocks relatively cheap. I speak as a trader only, not as an investor. I need other people to invest for me. Indexes could fall 50% and still look expensive to me, so I need other people to handle that.

[fletchsmile]

Based on the decennial pattern for one thing. Also if the correction does ensue, I imagine many holding non dollar currencies would find the stocks relatively cheap. I speak as a trader only, not as an investor. I need other people to invest for me. Indexes could fall 50% and still look expensive to me, so I need other people to handle that.

I thought this thread was dead and buried. Global Correction predicted mid-Aug 2007: end of Dec 2007/4-5 months later and still hadn't happened. I guess you're too lazy to start another thread with a meaningful/relevant title.

Edited January 4, 2008 by fletchsmile

[lannarebirth]

Based on the decennial pattern for one thing. Also if the correction does ensue, I imagine many holding non dollar currencies would find the stocks relatively cheap. I speak as a trader only, not as an investor. I need other people to invest for me. Indexes could fall 50% and still look expensive to me, so I need other people to handle that.

I thought this thread was dead and buried. Global Correction predicted mid-Aug 2007: end of Dec 2007/4-5 months later and still hadn't happened. I guess you're too lazy to start another thread with a meaningful/relevant title.

Corrections happen in many ways. Most people only look at price, but time is just as important a factor to consider. As are opportunity costs and currency revaluations.

[lannarebirth]

Based on the decennial pattern for one thing. Also if the correction does ensue, I imagine many holding non dollar currencies would find the stocks relatively cheap. I speak as a trader only, not as an investor. I need other people to invest for me. Indexes could fall 50% and still look expensive to me, so I need other people to handle that.

I thought this thread was dead and buried. Global Correction predicted mid-Aug 2007: end of Dec 2007/4-5 months later and still hadn't happened. I guess you're too lazy to start another thread with a meaningful/relevant title.

Turns out it was a timely bump after all. Ka-ching!

[lannarebirth]

There's your culprit. Looks like wave 3...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p...amp;a=121846970

[midas]

Based on the decennial pattern for one thing. Also if the correction does ensue, I imagine many holding non dollar currencies would find the stocks relatively cheap. I speak as a trader only, not as an investor. I need other people to invest for me. Indexes could fall 50% and still look expensive to me, so I need other people to handle that.

I thought this thread was dead and buried. Global Correction predicted mid-Aug 2007: end of Dec 2007/4-5 months later and still hadn't happened. I guess you're too lazy to start another thread with a meaningful/relevant title.

I'm fascinated by this idea that a global correction needs to happen in a relatively short space a time for it to have

any validity ? How do we know it's not like a slowly deflating tyre ? Indeed Lord William Rees - Mogg who used to be

editor of the Financial Times and financial adviser to the Saudi royal family described what is happening globally now

as a 500 year change ! sorry if that doesn't tie-in with your timetable !

[sonicdragon]

Based on the decennial pattern for one thing. Also if the correction does ensue, I imagine many holding non dollar currencies would find the stocks relatively cheap. I speak as a trader only, not as an investor. I need other people to invest for me. Indexes could fall 50% and still look expensive to me, so I need other people to handle that.

I thought this thread was dead and buried. Global Correction predicted mid-Aug 2007: end of Dec 2007/4-5 months later and still hadn't happened. I guess you're too lazy to start another thread with a meaningful/relevant title.

I'm fascinated by this idea that a global correction needs to happen in a relatively short space a time for it to have

any validity ? How do we know it's not like a slowly deflating tyre ? Indeed Lord William Rees - Mogg who used to be

editor of the Financial Times and financial adviser to the Saudi royal family described what is happening globally now

as a 500 year change ! sorry if that doesn't tie-in with your timetable !

Normal use of the terminology "correction" refers to a short period of time. A longer period (usually multi-year) of a downtrend tends to be called a "bear market" during which there would be many short or not-so-short rallies.

[Naam]

none of the last postings are relevant to BingoBongos original "melt down" prophecies dated august 2007. in a few months the thread "global corrections" will have deteriorated and TV-members will argue what's the best way to change energy saving light bulbs or whether phrik nam pla goes with mashed potatoes.

[fletchsmile]

I'm fascinated by this idea that a global correction needs to happen in a relatively short space a time for it to have any validity ? How do we know it's not like a slowly deflating tyre ? Indeed Lord William Rees - Mogg who used to be editor of the Financial Times and financial adviser to the Saudi royal family described what is happening globally now as a 500 year change ! sorry if that doesn't tie-in with your timetable !

Reference was more to the original post which talks of a "global bust coming". I guess if you're fascinated by it, you're also fascinated by the idea "we're all going to die". Or "after the global correction (long or short term) there'll be another one in the opposite direction". BTW how does your partner feel about you conjugating such verbs 500 years out?

Normal use of the terminology "correction" refers to a short period of time. A longer period (usually multi-year) of a downtrend tends to be called a "bear market" during which there would be many short or not-so-short rallies.

Particularly in context of this thread.

none of the last postings are relevant to BingoBongos original "melt down" prophecies dated august 2007. in a few months the thread "global corrections" will have deteriorated and TV-members will argue what's the best way to change energy saving light bulbs or whether phrik nam pla goes with mashed potatoes.

My point exactly. Something with a little more focus might be better to crysatillise the potential of the TV members.

BTW I changed 8 light bulbs yesterday in our condo. They've all gone in the space of a month, and the condo being new suggests Thai light bulbs may be a substandard investment. Hence we "invested" in some low enery long life ones from Phillips this time

As for mash potatoes, I'll stick to gravy. I do wonder if prik nam pla would mix with vinegar on chips tho', or why McDonald's automatically put salt on french fries? Should McD in Thailand use fish sauce instead

Edited January 7, 2008 by fletchsmile

[lannarebirth]

Actually, I dodn't remeber the context of the OP. I just see "correction" as a euphemism for "going down". In my world there's only going down or going up. Sometimes sideways.

[fletchsmile]

Actually, I dodn't remeber the context of the OP. I just see "correction" as a euphemism for "going down". In my world there's only going down or going up. Sometimes sideways.

I have my TV set on the "Linear" option, so it always shows the OP. This was one of the best threads I'd seen for 2007 in terms of traffic and ideas, but looks a bit dated now, and doesn't make sense/ has become vague

Maybe start a 2008 "ongoing up or down" thread.

[bingobongo]

come on fletch dont be so sad just becasue you did not sell the bounce as i stated/warned in my previous post

so did you buy gold, oil, yen and sell the bounce on all bourses (and go short)? if not, you were ridden harder than a bargirl during the high season

regardless the down trend is still in tact......china (shanghai bourse) will experience a nice haircut this year which will acclerate after the olympics are over and the yen carry will continue to unwind

for those of you who do not understand the impact of Jan 30, 2008 to (global) financial markets stick to savings accounts. for those of you who do, get ready

since this is thaivisa, the SET will soon circle the bowl as the economy will continue to skid and the elections are a mess and no resolution is on the immediate horizon

sell bounces and go short

Edited January 7, 2008 by bingobongo

[pkrv]

come on fletch dont be so sad just becasue you did not sell the bounce as i stated/warned in my previous post

so did you buy gold, oil, yen and sell the bounce on all bourses (and go short)? if not, you were ridden harder than a bargirl during the high season

regardless the down trend is still in tact......china (shanghai bourse) will experience a nice haircut this year which will acclerate after the olympics are over and the yen carry will continue to unwind

for those of you who do not understand the impact of Jan 30, 2008 to (global) financial markets stick to savings accounts. for those of you who do, get ready

since this is thaivisa, the SET will soon circle the bowl as the economy will continue to skid and the elections are a mess and no resolution is on the immediate horizon

sell bounces and go short

I predict tomorrow there will be a global shower of frogs legs (yum frogs legs mmmmmmmmmuuuuuuuummmmmm)

[PCA]

come on fletch dont be so sad just becasue you did not sell the bounce as i stated/warned in my previous post

so did you buy gold, oil, yen and sell the bounce on all bourses (and go short)? if not, you were ridden harder than a bargirl during the high season

regardless the down trend is still in tact......china (shanghai bourse) will experience a nice haircut this year which will acclerate after the olympics are over and the yen carry will continue to unwind

for those of you who do not understand the impact of Jan 30, 2008 to (global) financial markets stick to savings accounts. for those of you who do, get ready

since this is thaivisa, the SET will soon circle the bowl as the economy will continue to skid and the elections are a mess and no resolution is on the immediate horizon

sell bounces and go short

how sure I was that you gonna show up today and indeed you can be so right but so wrong with your prediction. I wont leave a comment about how fundamentals play into the market and which effect they reasonably might have but what you should not do is telling people to short current levels or the next bounce. We are technically in nowhere land until we see the market closing January wherever they will. Maybe when there is another bounce you can call some trades what and how to sell proving that you put your money where your mouth is.

[lannarebirth]

come on fletch dont be so sad just becasue you did not sell the bounce as i stated/warned in my previous post

so did you buy gold, oil, yen and sell the bounce on all bourses (and go short)? if not, you were ridden harder than a bargirl during the high season

regardless the down trend is still in tact......china (shanghai bourse) will experience a nice haircut this year which will acclerate after the olympics are over and the yen carry will continue to unwind

for those of you who do not understand the impact of Jan 30, 2008 to (global) financial markets stick to savings accounts. for those of you who do, get ready

since this is thaivisa, the SET will soon circle the bowl as the economy will continue to skid and the elections are a mess and no resolution is on the immediate horizon

sell bounces and go short

how sure I was that you gonna show up today and indeed you can be so right but so wrong with your prediction. I wont leave a comment about how fundamentals play into the market and which effect they reasonably might have but what you should not do is telling people to short current levels or the next bounce. We are technically in nowhere land until we see the market closing January wherever they will. Maybe when there is another bounce you can call some trades what and how to sell proving that you put your money where your mouth is.

So, he's encouraging non-traders to become short sellers. That's pretty irresponsible. He did manage to do it at the exact low of the day though. There's some value in that kind of call.

[bingobongo]

watch the 1406 level on the S&P 500, last time we bounced off, if not, down she goes, taking global bourses with it (yes including the SET)

good luck fletchsmile, dont be bull or bear biased, play the tape given to you and dont be a lemming