Global Correction

[sonicdragon]

did anyone notice the $ index on friday? it broke past critial support of 80, well now the yen carry trade will unwind and it will be quite messy, hold on to your hats boys and girls as global markets will start to take it on the chin.... (baht will get stonger, further crippling the export dependent economy)

from a recent article......

Note that this dip below 80 is not likely to be the bottom. MACD and RSI are dropping in a manner which suggest more downside is highly probable. As the dollar drops, the yen strengthens.

The carry trade is no longer profitable if the yen is below 115. The yen is 113 and heading lower. Forcing traders to sell dollar-based assets and repatriate the funds into yen--the so-called unwinding of the trade--requires stupendous selling of equities, derivatives and bonds--whatever was purchased with the borrowed money. A key prop under the U.S. market has been kicked out.

Very little carry trade activity has been directed as US dollar denominated assets as I recall...I thought it was all going to AUD, NZD and maybe some Asian based countries...ie China and Thailand.

Based on this, how will the baht get stronger? If you are correct and carry trades are unwound, carry trade funded thai eqities will be sold and baht transferred into yen as well.....the baht will weaken vis a vis a basket of foreign currencies instead...

That's what I was thinking. There just aren't a whole lot of high yielding things in US dollars. In fact given the dollar trend the last few years, the US was a poor choice for the carry trade.

Yen-carry isn't just a fixed income trade. US stocks were also a favourite of many yen-carry trade participants. Those who bought US stocks with borrowed yen a few years ago, have done exceedingly well - the market would have to go down a LOT from here in order to wipe out those gains.

[cclub75]

The minimum criteria for the decline to a 4-year cycle low is 10% and we reached that August 16. But in 85% of historical cases, the sell off to that low is at least 20%, so there may be a lot more to go before the cycle window ends.

Please, could you be more... specific ?

You are talking about a stock market ?

[sonicdragon]

Sept 18 at 2:15pm E.S.T, bernake (head of US fed reserve) will announce the stance on the US fed funds rate

if he drops the rate, the $ will further decline and the Yen, gold, silver will climb.....as the yen carry trade becomes less profitable, bonds/stocks/ and $ will be sold off

if he does not drop rates, the US market will take it on the chin (as the market is begging for a rate cut due to the bad jobs report last week).........this will be an intersting few weeks

samran, i am talking about the baht/US$ rate, not the baht/yen rate.........thai exporters are relying on the US consumer which is getting poorer every day

I would say that it will take more than this last NFP number to cause the fed to cut the target rate. Of course, between now and the next meeting there could easily be more signs that prompt them to do so.

It's clear that there is still a serious dislocation in the credit markets, and that it *is* having a knock-on effect on the real economy, but it's not clear that easing rates by 25bp or 50bp will cure this dislocation.

I would expect quantitative easing and other open market operations, maybe even an overhaul of the fed's open market operations, before they cut.

It's quite easy to paint a very grim picture of the current situation, with all the chickens coming home to roost, but until there is more evidence I think it's better not to get carried away. That said, my own portfolio is now under 10% in equities and a lot of those are focussed on asian domestic consumption.

[lannarebirth]

The minimum criteria for the decline to a 4-year cycle low is 10% and we reached that August 16. But in 85% of historical cases, the sell off to that low is at least 20%, so there may be a lot more to go before the cycle window ends.

Please, could you be more... specific ?

You are talking about a stock market ?

I'm sorry, yes, I'm talking about the US stock market. I think most global stock markets are connected enough that it would possibly apply to others as well. If I talk about the market it is usually the US market. Others, except for maybe the DAX are just to illiquid for me to judge.

[sonicdragon]

Sept 18 at 2:15pm E.S.T, bernake (head of US fed reserve) will announce the stance on the US fed funds rate

if he drops the rate, the $ will further decline and the Yen, gold, silver will climb.....as the yen carry trade becomes less profitable, bonds/stocks/ and $ will be sold off

if he does not drop rates, the US market will take it on the chin (as the market is begging for a rate cut due to the bad jobs report last week).........this will be an intersting few weeks

samran, i am talking about the baht/US$ rate, not the baht/yen rate.........thai exporters are relying on the US consumer which is getting poorer every day

You should learn what Fed Fund Futures are. The market prices evrything in well before actual planned events take place.

What do you think the market is telling us, when Fed Funds futures are pricing in cuts to as low as 4.00% by December with quite high probability, wheras 3month US dollar libor is currently 0.5% above the target rate ? I think that this goes to the heart of the matter.

[lannarebirth]

Sept 18 at 2:15pm E.S.T, bernake (head of US fed reserve) will announce the stance on the US fed funds rate

if he drops the rate, the $ will further decline and the Yen, gold, silver will climb.....as the yen carry trade becomes less profitable, bonds/stocks/ and $ will be sold off

if he does not drop rates, the US market will take it on the chin (as the market is begging for a rate cut due to the bad jobs report last week).........this will be an intersting few weeks

samran, i am talking about the baht/US$ rate, not the baht/yen rate.........thai exporters are relying on the US consumer which is getting poorer every day

You should learn what Fed Fund Futures are. The market prices evrything in well before actual planned events take place.

What do you think the market is telling us, when Fed Funds futures are pricing in cuts to as low as 4.00% by December with quite high probability, wheras 3month US dollar libor is currently 0.5% above the target rate ? I think that this goes to the heart of the matter.

I'm only guessing, but perhaps pricing in a possible recession? with the libor tied rates tied to shorter term, higher risk borrowers? I read there's something like a trillion dollars of that libor marked commercial paper that will be rolled in the next week or two. I also expect the stock market will bottom and turn up long before a recession is apparent, as usual.

[sonicdragon]

Sept 18 at 2:15pm E.S.T, bernake (head of US fed reserve) will announce the stance on the US fed funds rate

if he drops the rate, the $ will further decline and the Yen, gold, silver will climb.....as the yen carry trade becomes less profitable, bonds/stocks/ and $ will be sold off

if he does not drop rates, the US market will take it on the chin (as the market is begging for a rate cut due to the bad jobs report last week).........this will be an intersting few weeks

samran, i am talking about the baht/US$ rate, not the baht/yen rate.........thai exporters are relying on the US consumer which is getting poorer every day

You should learn what Fed Fund Futures are. The market prices evrything in well before actual planned events take place.

What do you think the market is telling us, when Fed Funds futures are pricing in cuts to as low as 4.00% by December with quite high probability, wheras 3month US dollar libor is currently 0.5% above the target rate ? I think that this goes to the heart of the matter.

I'm only guessing, but perhaps pricing in a possible recession? with the libor tied rates tied to shorter term, higher risk borrowers? I read there's something like a trillion dollars of that libor marked commercial paper that will be rolled in the next week or two. I also expect the stock market will bottom and turn up long before a recession is apparent, as usual.

There's always a huge volume of libor linked paper being rolled over / refinanced. I think (and hope) it has less to do with "higher risk borrowers" (since the insitutions who's quoted offer rates that make up libor are among the top rated banks in the world) than these institutions simply having a shortage of cash right now. Why else would the likes of deutsche bank be borrowing from the discount window ? This is what I mean about a dislocation in the credit markets. The Fed easing will not fix this. But it will help a lot of other problems that stem from it.

[Carmine6]

That's what I was thinking. There just aren't a whole lot of high yielding things in US dollars. In fact given the dollar trend the last few years, the US was a poor choice for the carry trade.

Yen-carry isn't just a fixed income trade. US stocks were also a favourite of many yen-carry trade participants. Those who bought US stocks with borrowed yen a few years ago, have done exceedingly well - the market would have to go down a LOT from here in order to wipe out those gains.

Yeah I know, but the discussion was somewhat about the yen strengthening against the dollar and scaring an unwinding of the carry. That falls a lot harder on those who bought fixed income. It might scare the equity guys as well, but there are a lot more factors for them to consider.

[LaoPo]

That's what I was thinking. There just aren't a whole lot of high yielding things in US dollars. In fact given the dollar trend the last few years, the US was a poor choice for the carry trade.

Yen-carry isn't just a fixed income trade. US stocks were also a favourite of many yen-carry trade participants. Those who bought US stocks with borrowed yen a few years ago, have done exceedingly well - the market would have to go down a LOT from here in order to wipe out those gains.

Yeah I know, but the discussion was somewhat about the yen strengthening against the dollar and scaring an unwinding of the carry. That falls a lot harder on those who bought fixed income. It might scare the equity guys as well, but there are a lot more factors for them to consider.

Yen Rises to Three-Week High Against Dollar

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose to its strongest in three weeks against the dollar after the first U.S. job losses in four years drove down stocks and prompted investors to repay loans in Japan they used to buy higher-yielding assets.

Japan's currency climbed against all 16 of its most active counterparts as investors cut holdings of so-called carry trades. The yen also reached the strongest in almost two weeks versus the euro as a report on Sept. 7 showed U.S. non-farm payrolls decreased by 4,000 in August.

``Yen strength is winning out for now,'' said Sue Trinh, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets said in Sydney. ``There was a massive spike in risk aversion and fears for global growth. Yen funded carry trades were unwound with vigor.''

Japan's currency rose to 112.77 per dollar at 8:21 a.m. in Tokyo from 113.38 late in New York Sept. 7. The yen advanced to 155.39 per euro from 156.10 last week. It may fall as low as 111.60 per dollar and 154.50 per euro in the next 24 hours on a decline in Asian stocks, Trinh said.

The yen appreciated the most against New Zealand's dollar, a popular target for carry trades because of the nation's 7.75 percentage point interest-rate advantage over Japan. It rose 1.3 percent to 77.31 per New Zealand dollar while climbing 0.9 percent versus Australia's dollar to 92.89.

In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates, earning the spread between the borrowing and lending rate. The risk is that currency moves erase those profits.

Continues here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

right on schedule, the $ index broke thru support at 80 on friday Sept 7 (see my previous post on this thread), the yen gets stronger and the nikkei is down 410 points as i write this, next will be the US market and global markets to follow the downward spiral.......enjoy boys and girls

[bingobongo]

Sept 18 at 2:15pm E.S.T, bernake (head of US fed reserve) will announce the stance on the US fed funds rate

if he drops the rate, the $ will further decline and the Yen, gold, silver will climb.....as the yen carry trade becomes less profitable, bonds/stocks/ and $ will be sold off

if he does not drop rates, the US market will take it on the chin (as the market is begging for a rate cut due to the bad jobs report last week).........this will be an intersting few weeks

samran, i am talking about the baht/US$ rate, not the baht/yen rate.........thai exporters are relying on the US consumer which is getting poorer every day

You should learn what Fed Fund Futures are. The market prices evrything in well before actual planned events take place.

yes i know what they are and viola the nikkei is down 410 points, per my post yesterday, the carry trade is unwinding, good luck you are going to need it

[bartender100]

The Bank of England for only the third time in its history issued a statment after it left interest rates unchanged last week,both the other times were in times of crisis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...10/ccmkt110.xml

[bingobongo]

as stated before, the $ will get weaker IF THERE IS A CUT, there will be a run on US assets, gold/silver/yen will climb and nikkei will tank and the baht will get stronger, and thai export market will continue to worsen and thai economy will continue to take it on the chin

Analyst: Fed rate cut won't help markets

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/10/markets/bc...sion=2007091008

Edited September 10, 2007 by bingobongo

[Carmine6]

snip

Additionally, Commitments of Traders Reports (Futures), show commercial traders (supposedly the "smart" money. very short the GBP and very long the $USD. It's sometimes hard to judge what may happen by viewing their positions, but as a general rule, it is said, "they are often early, but seldom wrong).

2 weeks farther on and looks like the big currency traders are still forecasting a weaker GBP. Even if they're right now, they've been wrong the whole year. That's the big problem with currency trading, you can go broke waiting to be right.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mp;refer=europe

" ``This is an important turning point for the pound,'' said Jim McCormick, London-based global head of currency strategy at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the largest U.S. underwriter of mortgage-backed bonds. ``The expectations around the economy and monetary policy on the back of what has happened to Northern Rock have shifted pretty significantly.''

Against the euro, the currency fell to a 17-month low of 70.053 pence last week. The Bank of England's Sterling Effective Rate Index, measuring the pound against 43 countries that trade with Britain, is the lowest in a year. It traded at $2.0254 at 1:54 p.m. Tokyo time.

`Turn for the Worse'

Deutsche Bank and UBS say the pound will weaken 6 percent over the next three quarters. Citigroup expects a decline of about 1.5 percent by year-end. Strategists at the firms predicted in December it would trade at $1.96 or lower this year.

Paris-based BNP Paribas SA, which said in June the currency would trade at $1.88 by year-end, is even more bearish, predicting it will tumble 23 percent to $1.547 next year. Lehman forecasts the pound will fall to $1.85 in 2008.

``The outlook for sterling took a turn for the worse after the Northern Rock crisis, which has undermined investor confidence in the housing market,'' said Hans Guenter Redeker, head of currency strategy at BNP in London. ``Sterling is highly correlated to the housing market.''

``The U.K. economy is one of the most sensitive to the ebb and flow of financial markets,'' said Kamal Sharma, a London- based currency strategist at Bank of America Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``Any downturn in the global financial sector is going to hit the U.K. disproportionately hard.''

[fletchsmile]

as stated before, the $ will get weaker IF THERE IS A CUT, there will be a run on US assets, gold/silver/yen will climb and nikkei will tank and the baht will get stronger, and thai export market will continue to worsen and thai economy will continue to take it on the chin

Analyst: Fed rate cut won't help markets

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/10/markets/bc...sion=2007091008

Bingo

I really enjoy your posts. They're so extreme. I haven't yet seen the person who's your opposite, tho' and so bullish. Look forward to it. When I do it'll be like having a devil and an angel above me telling me different things, like on those cartoons. I'm surprised I've never seen you around BKK with a sign round your neck, saying "repent you sinners the end of the world is nigh". sell sell sell

Have attached a couple of charts for you on a fund I'd have sold if I'd taken your advice. Up 17% in 2 weeks (around when you said sell). Up 30%+ over 6 months (Think you were also saying sell). Up 54% in 1 year (I guess you'd be saying sell back then too.) Nearly double over 2 years.

Now if you or anyone else had been able to time the market for me, you would have told me to buy in Oct 2005, sell in May2006, buy in Oct 2006, sell end July 2007, and buy again mid-August. If I'd be chopping and changing as you suggest I could be gaining or more probably losing.

But as I'm not clever enough on "timing the market", I've just gone for "time in the market". Without being greedy.

Sure you're avoiding the falls, but you're missing the rises too! When the gloom and doom comes, which it will. There's enough of a cushion in there for those that have been in for the long haul

Edited September 24, 2007 by fletchthai68

[lannarebirth]

snip

Additionally, Commitments of Traders Reports (Futures), show commercial traders (supposedly the "smart" money. very short the GBP and very long the $USD. It's sometimes hard to judge what may happen by viewing their positions, but as a general rule, it is said, "they are often early, but seldom wrong).

2 weeks farther on and looks like the big currency traders are still forecasting a weaker GBP. Even if they're right now, they've been wrong the whole year. That's the big problem with currency trading, you can go broke waiting to be right.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mp;refer=europe

" ``This is an important turning point for the pound,'' said Jim McCormick, London-based global head of currency strategy at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the largest U.S. underwriter of mortgage-backed bonds. ``The expectations around the economy and monetary policy on the back of what has happened to Northern Rock have shifted pretty significantly.''

Against the euro, the currency fell to a 17-month low of 70.053 pence last week. The Bank of England's Sterling Effective Rate Index, measuring the pound against 43 countries that trade with Britain, is the lowest in a year. It traded at $2.0254 at 1:54 p.m. Tokyo time.

`Turn for the Worse'

Deutsche Bank and UBS say the pound will weaken 6 percent over the next three quarters. Citigroup expects a decline of about 1.5 percent by year-end. Strategists at the firms predicted in December it would trade at $1.96 or lower this year.

Paris-based BNP Paribas SA, which said in June the currency would trade at $1.88 by year-end, is even more bearish, predicting it will tumble 23 percent to $1.547 next year. Lehman forecasts the pound will fall to $1.85 in 2008.

``The outlook for sterling took a turn for the worse after the Northern Rock crisis, which has undermined investor confidence in the housing market,'' said Hans Guenter Redeker, head of currency strategy at BNP in London. ``Sterling is highly correlated to the housing market.''

``The U.K. economy is one of the most sensitive to the ebb and flow of financial markets,'' said Kamal Sharma, a London- based currency strategist at Bank of America Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``Any downturn in the global financial sector is going to hit the U.K. disproportionately hard.''

Generally speaking, this much "awareness" isn't good for persons similarly positioned. That said, it hasn't hurt the USD shorters any.

I'm not a true believer in anything with regards to markets, except that things will run to greater extremes than is generally imagined(this may bode very ill for the $USD). With respect to the GBP, it's a can't lose trade for me as 1/3 was booked much lower and the rest is stopped at breakeven. IF it does break down, it will be a helluva lot more than the 6% forecast, but it could certainly extend it's negative divergances and run higher. You are quite correct to point out that some speculators could go broke waiting to be right.

I'm not an old hand at currencies, but this seemed like a half way decent place to dip a toe in. I utilize futures and eschew the Forex market and the insane leverages that go with it. This is a very good time for people to be aware of the interconnectedness of all markets. Something don't smell right.

[lannarebirth]

Hmmm, just stumbled on this:

[samran]

Bingo

I really enjoy your posts. They're so extreme. I haven't yet seen the person who's your opposite, tho' and so bullish. Look forward to it. When I do it'll be like having a devil and an angel above me telling me different things, like on those cartoons. I'm surprised I've never seen you around BKK with a sign round your neck, saying "repent you sinners the end of the world is nigh". sell sell sell

Have attached a couple of charts for you on a fund I'd have sold if I'd taken your advice. Up 17% in 2 weeks (around when you said sell). Up 30%+ over 6 months (Think you were also saying sell). Up 54% in 1 year (I guess you'd be saying sell back then too.) Nearly double over 2 years.

Now if you or anyone else had been able to time the market for me, you would have told me to buy in Oct 2005, sell in May2006, buy in Oct 2006, sell end July 2007, and buy again mid-August. If I'd be chopping and changing as you suggest I could be gaining or more probably losing.

But as I'm not clever enough on "timing the market", I've just gone for "time in the market". Without being greedy.

Sure you're avoiding the falls, but you're missing the rises too! When the gloom and doom comes, which it will. There's enough of a cushion in there for those that have been in for the long haul

A few of us think Bingo is extermely effective actually. When he says 'sell' we all go and buy.

The samran fund for 2007 is up 30% since April!

[fletchsmile]

A few of us think Bingo is extermely effective actually. When he says 'sell' we all go and buy.

The samran fund for 2007 is up 30% since April!

That's why I'd like to find his opposite. Someone who says buy that I can rely on to sell..

Honestly when we were looking at buying a condo, his posts were useful from the extreme of "don't do it", compared to the people saying was reasonable. Dare I say it was a factor in us buying...

[Naam]

Honestly when we were looking at buying a condo, his posts were useful from the extreme of "don't do it", compared to the people saying was reasonable. Dare I say it was a factor in us buying...

you acted against Bingo's advice? i consider this quite Bongo!

[lannarebirth]

Bingo

I really enjoy your posts. They're so extreme. I haven't yet seen the person who's your opposite, tho' and so bullish. Look forward to it. When I do it'll be like having a devil and an angel above me telling me different things, like on those cartoons. I'm surprised I've never seen you around BKK with a sign round your neck, saying "repent you sinners the end of the world is nigh". sell sell sell

Have attached a couple of charts for you on a fund I'd have sold if I'd taken your advice. Up 17% in 2 weeks (around when you said sell). Up 30%+ over 6 months (Think you were also saying sell). Up 54% in 1 year (I guess you'd be saying sell back then too.) Nearly double over 2 years.

Now if you or anyone else had been able to time the market for me, you would have told me to buy in Oct 2005, sell in May2006, buy in Oct 2006, sell end July 2007, and buy again mid-August. If I'd be chopping and changing as you suggest I could be gaining or more probably losing.

But as I'm not clever enough on "timing the market", I've just gone for "time in the market". Without being greedy.

Sure you're avoiding the falls, but you're missing the rises too! When the gloom and doom comes, which it will. There's enough of a cushion in there for those that have been in for the long haul

A few of us think Bingo is extermely effective actually. When he says 'sell' we all go and buy.

The samran fund for 2007 is up 30% since April!

Looking good:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TTF&p...id=p77849886722

Nice breakout with volume.

[fletchsmile]

Looking good:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TTF&p...id=p77849886722

Nice breakout with volume.

Yes think Thai equities looking good potential at the moment. Down today, which would please some, but say 6-12 months from now...

[lannarebirth]

Todays factoid:

"The calendar is fast approaching October 3rd of the seventh year within the decade. Let's be more specific because there are some people who count the years of the decade beginning with zero. We are fast approaching October 3rd in a year ending in the digit 7. Suffice it to say that the average decline between October 3rd and November 8th of years ending in the digit 7 since 1897 is 14.2% on a closing basis. What a remarkable statistic! Of the 11 previous years ending in the digit 7, there was only one year that saw an advance between those two dates and the advance was a tepid 1.7% in 1947. The declines between those two dates have been -13.2%, -16.2%, -17.9%, -3.9%, -19.5%, -6.6%, -7.8%, -3.6%, -25.8%, and -5.6%. We don't know what else to tell you about those remarkable data."

Peter Eliades

Past performance, as they say, is no guarantee of future blah blah....

[fletchsmile]

Todays factoid:

"The calendar is fast approaching October 3rd of the seventh year within the decade. Let's be more specific because there are some people who count the years of the decade beginning with zero. We are fast approaching October 3rd in a year ending in the digit 7. Suffice it to say that the average decline between October 3rd and November 8th of years ending in the digit 7 since 1897 is 14.2% on a closing basis. What a remarkable statistic! Of the 11 previous years ending in the digit 7, there was only one year that saw an advance between those two dates and the advance was a tepid 1.7% in 1947. The declines between those two dates have been -13.2%, -16.2%, -17.9%, -3.9%, -19.5%, -6.6%, -7.8%, -3.6%, -25.8%, and -5.6%. We don't know what else to tell you about those remarkable data."

Peter Eliades

Past performance, as they say, is no guarantee of future blah blah....

Yes October has been a bad month over the last few decades. Do you have any similar data on how long the bounce back takes? Some of the biggest rises come not long after the biggest falls. Not being a chartist myself, I would wonder whether someone like yourself might have any info. Many times it seems to come back for Xmas

For those of us with less skills than Lannarebirth. Two of the worst: October 1987 Black Monday US markets, lost around a quarter in a few hours, then October 1997 was pretty nasty triggering the circuit breakers for maximum losses that were put in after 1987.

Hmmm Oct 1987, Oct 1997, Oct 2007???.... I'll tell you my views in November

Edited October 1, 2007 by fletchthai68

[cclub75]

Hmmm Oct 1987, Oct 1997, Oct 2007???.... I'll tell you my views in November

Me too !

But meanwhile, smooth as thai silk... the corpses are leaving the closet : "BS AG, Europe's biggest bank by assets, had a third-quarter loss and plans to cut 1,500 jobs after writing down the value of mortgage-backed securities.

The pretax loss amounted to between 600 million Swiss francs and 800 million francs ($687 million), the Zurich-based bank said in a statement today. Huw Jenkins, the head of the investment bank, and Chief Financial Officer Clive Standish are stepping down. "(Bloomberg)

Everything is under control.

Edited October 1, 2007 by cclub75

[samran]

Samran premium DIY fund up 44% since April.

ING Good corp governance fund (invested as a tax deduction) up similar amount since June last year.

Lets see if those gains are still there at the end of october.

[lannarebirth]

Todays factoid:

"The calendar is fast approaching October 3rd of the seventh year within the decade. Let's be more specific because there are some people who count the years of the decade beginning with zero. We are fast approaching October 3rd in a year ending in the digit 7. Suffice it to say that the average decline between October 3rd and November 8th of years ending in the digit 7 since 1897 is 14.2% on a closing basis. What a remarkable statistic! Of the 11 previous years ending in the digit 7, there was only one year that saw an advance between those two dates and the advance was a tepid 1.7% in 1947. The declines between those two dates have been -13.2%, -16.2%, -17.9%, -3.9%, -19.5%, -6.6%, -7.8%, -3.6%, -25.8%, and -5.6%. We don't know what else to tell you about those remarkable data."

Peter Eliades

Past performance, as they say, is no guarantee of future blah blah....

Yes October has been a bad month over the last few decades. Do you have any similar data on how long the bounce back takes? Some of the biggest rises come not long after the biggest falls. Not being a chartist myself, I would wonder whether someone like yourself might have any info. Many times it seems to come back for Xmas

For those of us with less skills than Lannarebirth. Two of the worst: October 1987 Black Monday US markets, lost around a quarter in a few hours, then October 1997 was pretty nasty triggering the circuit breakers for maximum losses that were put in after 1987.

Hmmm Oct 1987, Oct 1997, Oct 2007???.... I'll tell you my views in November

I don't have any particular view on the subject, but it's an interesting phenomenon all the same. Not just the past few decades either. The data is back to 1897. It's worth noting for people who play the markets both ways or for people looking to put new money to work. Probably of less interest to people who have been invested in markets so long that their cost basis is significantly lower.

I absolutely hate trading and being "in the market". For me it's all about identifying periods of significant volatility. Maybe this will be such an occasion.

[lannarebirth]

Hmmm Oct 1987, Oct 1997, Oct 2007???.... I'll tell you my views in November

Me too !

But meanwhile, smooth as thai silk... the corpses are leaving the closet : "BS AG, Europe's biggest bank by assets, had a third-quarter loss and plans to cut 1,500 jobs after writing down the value of mortgage-backed securities.

The pretax loss amounted to between 600 million Swiss francs and 800 million francs ($687 million), the Zurich-based bank said in a statement today. Huw Jenkins, the head of the investment bank, and Chief Financial Officer Clive Standish are stepping down. "(Bloomberg)

Everything is under control.

By the time you here about the write downs, usually the worst is over.

[sonicdragon]

Todays factoid:

"The calendar is fast approaching October 3rd of the seventh year within the decade. Let's be more specific because there are some people who count the years of the decade beginning with zero. We are fast approaching October 3rd in a year ending in the digit 7. Suffice it to say that the average decline between October 3rd and November 8th of years ending in the digit 7 since 1897 is 14.2% on a closing basis. What a remarkable statistic! Of the 11 previous years ending in the digit 7, there was only one year that saw an advance between those two dates and the advance was a tepid 1.7% in 1947. The declines between those two dates have been -13.2%, -16.2%, -17.9%, -3.9%, -19.5%, -6.6%, -7.8%, -3.6%, -25.8%, and -5.6%. We don't know what else to tell you about those remarkable data."

Peter Eliades

Past performance, as they say, is no guarantee of future blah blah....

Yes October has been a bad month over the last few decades. Do you have any similar data on how long the bounce back takes? Some of the biggest rises come not long after the biggest falls. Not being a chartist myself, I would wonder whether someone like yourself might have any info. Many times it seems to come back for Xmas

For those of us with less skills than Lannarebirth. Two of the worst: October 1987 Black Monday US markets, lost around a quarter in a few hours, then October 1997 was pretty nasty triggering the circuit breakers for maximum losses that were put in after 1987.

Hmmm Oct 1987, Oct 1997, Oct 2007???.... I'll tell you my views in November

I don't have any particular view on the subject, but it's an interesting phenomenon all the same. Not just the past few decades either. The data is back to 1897. It's worth noting for people who play the markets both ways or for people looking to put new money to work. Probably of less interest to people who have been invested in markets so long that their cost basis is significantly lower.

I absolutely hate trading and being "in the market". For me it's all about identifying periods of significant volatility. Maybe this will be such an occasion.

And with several markets making new all time highs it's easy to form an opinion of getting a little bit, if not a lot, short at these levels at the moment. It's shame option vol is still quite expensive, with the vix at 18, but obviously it will spike higher from here if there is a correction. Hmmmmm.....

[lannarebirth]

Todays factoid:

"The calendar is fast approaching October 3rd of the seventh year within the decade. Let's be more specific because there are some people who count the years of the decade beginning with zero. We are fast approaching October 3rd in a year ending in the digit 7. Suffice it to say that the average decline between October 3rd and November 8th of years ending in the digit 7 since 1897 is 14.2% on a closing basis. What a remarkable statistic! Of the 11 previous years ending in the digit 7, there was only one year that saw an advance between those two dates and the advance was a tepid 1.7% in 1947. The declines between those two dates have been -13.2%, -16.2%, -17.9%, -3.9%, -19.5%, -6.6%, -7.8%, -3.6%, -25.8%, and -5.6%. We don't know what else to tell you about those remarkable data."

Peter Eliades

Past performance, as they say, is no guarantee of future blah blah....

Yes October has been a bad month over the last few decades. Do you have any similar data on how long the bounce back takes? Some of the biggest rises come not long after the biggest falls. Not being a chartist myself, I would wonder whether someone like yourself might have any info. Many times it seems to come back for Xmas

For those of us with less skills than Lannarebirth. Two of the worst: October 1987 Black Monday US markets, lost around a quarter in a few hours, then October 1997 was pretty nasty triggering the circuit breakers for maximum losses that were put in after 1987.

Hmmm Oct 1987, Oct 1997, Oct 2007???.... I'll tell you my views in November

I don't have any particular view on the subject, but it's an interesting phenomenon all the same. Not just the past few decades either. The data is back to 1897. It's worth noting for people who play the markets both ways or for people looking to put new money to work. Probably of less interest to people who have been invested in markets so long that their cost basis is significantly lower.

I absolutely hate trading and being "in the market". For me it's all about identifying periods of significant volatility. Maybe this will be such an occasion.

And with several markets making new all time highs it's easy to form an opinion of getting a little bit, if not a lot, short at these levels at the moment. It's shame option vol is still quite expensive, with the vix at 18, but obviously it will spike higher from here if there is a correction. Hmmmmm.....

I'm considering laddering some OEX puts, but as you say the VIX makes thm pretty spendy. I think I'm going to give it another week and see if it will come down.