Global Correction

[lordofdelusion]

  LaoPo said:

  midas said:

  lordofdelusion said:

We don't make much anymore. What we consume drives the economies of China, Japan, Korea, Tawain and many others.

Quite ! So what is there left ? USA is a country that was meant to be destined for greater things -perhaps being able to rely

on innovative work opportunities with specialist skills? But partly because of all the wasted money fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan standards

in schools have slipped dramatically. And while schoolchildren in China equipped with desktop PCs in their classroom

and are furiously learning English or other languages to compete globally, are there any foreign languages being taught in American schoolrooms?

As far as I know they don't even teach Spanish to American children as a second language which I would have thought could be a good investment

for the future in somewhere like California.

I agree with -even obligatory- teaching Spanish and Chinese as well; it would give the US an advantage and lead over Europe***, especially what Chinese is concerned. The future is East, not West.

Apart from that I would like to comment on lordofdelusion's sentence:

although the quote "What we consume drives the economies of China, Japan, Korea, Tawain and many others" in itself is true it is also a fact that these countries just produced what the West (US/EU/OZ/NZ) wanted them to produce...and still do to the largest part of production.

Those countries NEVER started to invent new products in order to send their salespeople oversees to sell...NO, the consuming countries sent their buyers to those countries to have them produce what they wanted.

That's a fact.

*** many Europeans speak already at least one foreign language.

LaoPo

Oh yes! And in many cases western companies basing themselves overseas where labor costs are cheaper. We drive those economies because we buy what they make so cheaply. Not what they invented. Americans love a bargain. Google any article about shipping jobs overseas. A hot button political topic in the US. But we would not for a minute pay the prices we would have to if those products were made in the US. We're greedy and cheap. I could write a book on my experiences as a consumer in the US. You have to have grown up there to really get it.

[Naam]

  ace said:

  Naam said:

................similar experiences i had with my former neighbours (half of them well off, half of them not). asking for the prices of their cars, their ride-on lawn mowers or their big screen TVs was futile. they only knew how much per month and that each and everything was a special offer with huge discount.

But that's just stupid. Me and my friends (some American) and family would know how much their car or TV or washing machine cost (I am not American). I mean I know a few people who have difficulty with working out credit card costs and frankly (don't tell 'em) I think even not knowing that is a bit stupid but are you saying "Joe Sixpack USA" has no clue? I have always defended Americans (I have met many smart Amercans, outside America) against my European friends' criticism, maybe I should start agreeing!

let me add to that chapter an important remark. i am not sure whether i was just lucky when living in America that i had "great" neighbours with whom i had excellent relations although i am not a social type and declined virtually all invitations to parties and functions. i (we) have lived for considerable periods in half a dozen other countries but claim only one people (neighbours or others with whom one deals on a daily basis) exceeded Americans in being friendly and helpful in each and every respect. that was on Cyprus.

[OriginalPoster]

  Naam said:

  ace said:

  Naam said:

................similar experiences i had with my former neighbours (half of them well off, half of them not). asking for the prices of their cars, their ride-on lawn mowers or their big screen TVs was futile. they only knew how much per month and that each and everything was a special offer with huge discount.

But that's just stupid. Me and my friends (some American) and family would know how much their car or TV or washing machine cost (I am not American). I mean I know a few people who have difficulty with working out credit card costs and frankly (don't tell 'em) I think even not knowing that is a bit stupid but are you saying "Joe Sixpack USA" has no clue? I have always defended Americans (I have met many smart Amercans, outside America) against my European friends' criticism, maybe I should start agreeing!

let me add to that chapter an important remark. i am not sure whether i was just lucky when living in America that i had "great" neighbours with whom i had excellent relations although i am not a social type and declined virtually all invitations to parties and functions. i (we) have lived for considerable periods in half a dozen other countries but claim only one people (neighbours or others with whom one deals on a daily basis) exceeded Americans in being friendly and helpful in each and every respect. that was on Cyprus.

Never lived in Florida, but from living in Pennsylania and Connecticut I'd say that your experience with your neighbors was pretty normal. Pennsylvania was an interesting case though. I lived in a relatively rural place and most the people seemed very stoic and it took awhile to get to know my neighbors, but it was also a place where if you spun your car out in a snow storm before you knew it 10 guys would pop out of now nowhere to dig your car out and push your car back onto the road. The sense of community was fanstastic, but curiously it is also the source of great ridicule from people outside of the state.

[LaoPo]

  lordofdelusion said:

Oh yes! And in many cases western companies basing themselves overseas where labor costs are cheaper. We drive those economies because we buy what they make so cheaply. Not what they invented. Americans love a bargain. Google any article about shipping jobs overseas. A hot button political topic in the US. But we would not for a minute pay the prices we would have to if those products were made in the US. We're greedy and cheap. I could write a book on my experiences as a consumer in the US. You have to have grown up there to really get it.

If you think that's an exclusivity for Americans, you're mistaken. The same bargains are loved by Europeans and they're greedy and cheap as well...

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

DOW and global markets down on Friday and futures down again for Monday even though $700 billion bailout package passed..............would not be surprised if US Federal Reserve and or the European Central Bank lowers interest rates this week (it wont help by the way) stay tuned..........

[siamamerican]

  bingobongo said:

DOW and global markets down on Friday and futures down again for Monday even though $700 billion bailout package passed..............would not be surprised if US Federal Reserve and or the European Central Bank lowers interest rates this week (it wont help by the way) stay tuned..........

IMO, 50 basis point reduction on the US side. No clue what ECB will do in the near term.

Latest Prime Rate Forecast for investors who trade in fed funds futures at the Chicago Board of Trade :

Current odds that the Prime Rate will be cut by at least 25 basis points at or before the October 29TH, 2008 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain)

[lordofdelusion]

  LaoPo said:

  lordofdelusion said:

Oh yes! And in many cases western companies basing themselves overseas where labor costs are cheaper. We drive those economies because we buy what they make so cheaply. Not what they invented. Americans love a bargain. Google any article about shipping jobs overseas. A hot button political topic in the US. But we would not for a minute pay the prices we would have to if those products were made in the US. We're greedy and cheap. I could write a book on my experiences as a consumer in the US. You have to have grown up there to really get it.

If you think that's an exclusivity for Americans, you're mistaken. The same bargains are loved by Europeans and they're greedy and cheap as well...

LaoPo

And today we see the pain spreading through Europe. What will happen in Asia??

[lannarebirth]

  bingobongo said:

DOW and global markets down on Friday and futures down again for Monday even though $700 billion bailout package passed..............would not be surprised if US Federal Reserve and or the European Central Bank lowers interest rates this week (it wont help by the way) stay tuned..........

joint rate decrease by both Europe and the Fed might stabilize (for the time being), those markets, but thousands of alpha seeking hedge funds still need to deleverage. I imagine that will keep pressure on emerging markets, commodities and non $USD currencies (ex Japan) for the foreseeable future. It's very hard to know how far along we are in the process.

[midas]

  lannarebirth said:

  bingobongo said:

DOW and global markets down on Friday and futures down again for Monday even though $700 billion bailout package passed..............would not be surprised if US Federal Reserve and or the European Central Bank lowers interest rates this week (it wont help by the way) stay tuned..........

joint rate decrease by both Europe and the Fed might stabilize (for the time being), those markets, but thousands of alpha seeking hedge funds still need to deleverage. I imagine that will keep pressure on emerging markets, commodities and non $USD currencies (ex Japan) for the foreseeable future. It's very hard to know how far along we are in the process.

lannarebirth you are the person to ask about this.

I read somewhere about te CDS for Fannie and Freddie coming up for settlement tommorow

and Lehman later in the week ? Do you expect any further major falls from this ?

[lannarebirth]

  midas said:

  lannarebirth said:

  bingobongo said:

DOW and global markets down on Friday and futures down again for Monday even though $700 billion bailout package passed..............would not be surprised if US Federal Reserve and or the European Central Bank lowers interest rates this week (it wont help by the way) stay tuned..........

joint rate decrease by both Europe and the Fed might stabilize (for the time being), those markets, but thousands of alpha seeking hedge funds still need to deleverage. I imagine that will keep pressure on emerging markets, commodities and non $USD currencies (ex Japan) for the foreseeable future. It's very hard to know how far along we are in the process.

lannarebirth you are the person to ask about this.

I read somewhere about te CDS for Fannie and Freddie coming up for settlement tommorow

and Lehman later in the week ? Do you expect any further major falls from this ?

Actually midas, you know what I know. What i perceive is there is almost a non existant appetite for risk right now, despite the fact that there may be some real value in some of the offerings. As we are in a bear market, my expectations are that all surprises will be negative surprises. I have no idea what is priced into this market and what is not. It would take a leviathan coordinated effort by governments, central banks and the private financial sector to turn this market around. It is not just a matter of the people having confidence again, but governments must have confidence in each other to turn this ship around. Forced liquidations begets more forced liquidations. If there is no coordinated effort sellers will be back in on any uptick. As for the specifics of FRE/FAN, I just do not know.

edit: here's an article on the subject midas:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6beabcdc-8f51-11dd...,print=yes.html

I'll add one bit of specualtion. The Fed and Treasury Dept must have some insight as to who the counterparties are on some of these CDS's. It would not surprise me to learn (years hence I'm sure) that their forced liquidations and mergers were in attempt to mitigate or hedge counterparty risk and hopefully cancel out some other types of risk.

[ace]

If the G8 were to get together and agree to just keep printing money as fast as they can crank the printing presses - would it help? And would the combined effort mean that currencies would remain relatively stable (relative to each other)? Opinions?

[flying]

WOW

Where is the bottom?

Watching the carnage this morning is pretty spooky even if I am not in the market.

Dow is Down 726 at the moment.

[pkrv]

  ace said:

If the G8 were to get together and agree to just keep printing money as fast as they can crank the printing presses - would it help? And would the combined effort mean that currencies would remain relatively stable (relative to each other)? Opinions?

YES you have hit the nail on the head BRAVO I HUMBLEY BOW - if they all print at the same rate nothing changes! Except we have to tear down all woodland across the planet to produce the necessary paper - By jingo I have got it BUY PAPER MILLS!

[LaoPo]

DOW ends below 10,000; hit lowest point in 5 years, after steepest drop of 800 points hitting the 9,534; ending lowest since 4 years: October 2003 resp. 2004

Dow 9,955.50 -369.88 (-3.58%)

Nasdaq 1,862.96 -84.43 (-4.34%)

S&P 500 1,056.88 -42.35 (-3.85%)

In think we could see the DOW down to 8,000 (latest in Spring 2003) and Oil down to $ 60/bbl. (around 2006/07)

LaoPo

[RAZZELL]

Aussie cut interest rates by 1%. ECB and the rest of Europe to follow. UK on Thursday (I guess a .5% cut)

Crank up the printing presses as the world tries to spend it's way out of this mess....

RAZZ

[RAZZELL]

"A person who can"t pay, get's another person who can't pay to guarantee that he can pay."

Mr.Pancks - "Little Dorrit" by Charles Dickens

RAZZ

[LaoPo]

DOW ends below 9,500, sliding more than 500 points and -5.11%; NASDAQ slides -5,80% whilst S&P 500 drops -5,58% sending it BELOW 1,000 to 996

Dow 9,447.11 -508.39 (-5.11%)

Nasdaq 1,754.95 -108.01 (-5.80%)

S&P 500 996.34 -58.95 (-5.73%)

LaoPo

[PCA]

  LaoPo said:

DOW ends below 9,500, sliding more than 500 points and -5.11%; NASDAQ slides -5,80% whilst S&P 500 drops -5,58% sending it BELOW 1,000 to 996

Dow 9,447.11 -508.39 (-5.11%)

Nasdaq 1,754.95 -108.01 (-5.80%)

S&P 500 996.34 -58.95 (-5.73%)

LaoPo

very bad it looks, another 20% drop is easily possible.

[LaoPo]

  PCA said:

  LaoPo said:

DOW ends below 9,500, sliding more than 500 points and -5.11%; NASDAQ slides -5,80% whilst S&P 500 drops -5,58% sending it BELOW 1,000 to 996

Dow 9,447.11 -508.39 (-5.11%)

Nasdaq 1,754.95 -108.01 (-5.80%)

S&P 500 996.34 -58.95 (-5.73%)

LaoPo

very bad it looks, another 20% drop is easily possible.

I mentioned down to 8,000 earlier could be a possibility, but -20% from today would send the DOW to 7,550 and that's really OUCH...The last time we saw the DOW there was October 2002...

LaoPo

[Naam]

  ace said:

If the G8 were to get together and agree to just keep printing money as fast as they can crank the printing presses - would it help? And would the combined effort mean that currencies would remain relatively stable (relative to each other)? Opinions?

there is no lack of money Ace. a lack of money exists where it is needed. investors do not trust their banks anymore, banks do not trust each other (interbank flow of cash has almost dried up) and capital has stopped flowing from banks to the economy (companies) where it is desperately needed.

[siamamerican]

Japan's markets are down nearly 1000 point today. What the fck -I'm going to buy a gun tomorrow and head for the woods.

[teatree]

  ace said:

If the G8 were to get together and agree to just keep printing money as fast as they can crank the printing presses - would it help? And would the combined effort mean that currencies would remain relatively stable (relative to each other)? Opinions?

If you want to have to take a wheelbarrow full of cash with you when you want to buy a bag of peanuts it would be an excellent idea.

More cash in circulation = inflation

[Naam]

  siamamerican said:

Japan's markets are down nearly 1000 point today. What the fck -I'm going to buy a gun tomorrow and head for the woods.

and rape a rabbit at gun point?

[flying]

Dow is pounding it down again today.

Close to -500 now with about 30 minutes to go.

8789 mark just hit.....ouch

[lannarebirth]

Do you feel lucky? Well , do ya?

[flying]

  lannarebirth said:

Do you feel lucky? Well , do ya?

Explain please

[LaoPo]

The Drama continues:

DOW slides below 9,000 with more than 750 points; and GENERAL MOTORS dropped like a stone with.....-31.11%

Dow 8,609.77 -648.33 (-7.00%)

Nasdaq 1,645.12 -95.21 (-5.47%)

S&P 500 912.07 -72.87 (-7.40%)

Where to ?

LaoPo

[flying]

  LaoPo said:

The Drama continues:

DOW slides below 9,000 with more than 750 points; and GENERAL MOTORS dropped like a stone with.....-31.11%

Dow 8,609.77 -648.33 (-7.00%)

Nasdaq 1,645.12 -95.21 (-5.47%)

S&P 500 912.07 -72.87 (-7.40%)

Where to ?

LaoPo

NASDAQ 1643.78 -96.55 5.55%

DJIA 8579.19 -678.91 7.33%

S&P 500 909.92 -75.02 7.62%

NASDAQ-100 1271.42 -59.19 4.45%

NASDAQ-100 PMI 1354.63 24.63 1.85%

NASDAQ-100 AHI N/A N/A N/A%

Russell 1000 492.13 -40.05 7.53%

Russell 2000 499.20 -47.37 8.67%

FTSE All-World ex-US* 156.92 -5.52 3.40%

FTSE RAFI 1000* 3584.19 -275.52 7.14%

Funny but right at the end Wells Fargo was down big time. Then a very large order came in to buy.

Also a few others *experts* on TV are saying time to dip a toe back in ......In their humble opinion of course

PS: they say Materials...Techs & Financials is where they will dip their toes

[lannarebirth]

  flying said:

  lannarebirth said:

Do you feel lucky? Well , do ya?

Explain please

It's a regression to the mean chart. Getting close to the mean average for the first time in many years. Doesn't mean much, except to show how out of whack markets had gotten from historical performance.

[flying]

  lannarebirth said:

  flying said:

  lannarebirth said:

Do you feel lucky? Well , do ya?

Explain please

It's a regression to the mean chart. Getting close to the mean average for the first time in many years. Doesn't mean much, except to show how out of whack markets had gotten from historical performance.

That is what I thought. I also thought after seeing that bubble for lack of better word ...that maybe it is a good thing then? We are back to a more normal range?

But when I saw your do you feel lucky statement I wondered if you meant it is maybe a good time for folks to go in there? Not that I am going mind you