Global Correction

[Ricardo]

so much for LOS being "insulated", say bye bye to the economy

did anybody say that?

Khun Tarisa at the BoT, perhaps ?

[Wrong Turn]

It means the end of the dollar.

I am reading a lot of proven experts claim the US dollar may significantly decline in the next year or two.

Can someone (Khun Jean) tell me what will be the result of this decline or collapse.

I'm a neophyte on this, TIA.

[Khun Jean]

Debasing of the dollar against all other main currencies. Those other countries will not be happy because their reserves (ha ha ha ha, how can you call pieces of fiat paper with ink reserves) is ultimately without a real value.

Europe still has around 58% in gold reserves but a country like china has only a few percent.

Pumping (inflating) trillions into the economy also not helps, making high inflation inevitable. There goes your pension and savings.

If i were an American i would get out of dollars while you still can. I think inflation and a collapse will not happen very fast, there is much more money from the middle class to suck out first.

This site tells it how it is. Chris Martenson's website. He leaves out a lot of bias you normally see with others and because of that his message is much more stronger.

Edited January 1, 2009 by Khun Jean

[Nouf]

It means the end of the dollar.

I am reading a lot of proven experts claim the US dollar may significantly decline in the next year or two.

Can someone (Khun Jean) tell me what will be the result of this decline or collapse.

I'm a neophyte on this, TIA.

Hello,

There is two sides to the story presently, im sure you have heard of the inflation/defaltion debate (if not go and google it) anyhow, the death of the $ has sparked a debate:

depending on what side of the fence you sit will likely present your bias towards the direction of the US$, but equally there is arguments for both sides of the debate

logically with all the games the Fed has taken ie the stimus, the off sheet balance tricks and propping up of the banks and all the printing one can asume that this is indeed inflationary and its correct to say the actual definition of inflation is the increase of Money supply which is what the fed is doing. so yes the power of the US$ should start to slide and loose its purchasing power

So while on the basis of this one can assume that the US$ should be sliding however their is a caveat to this theory and thats the rest of the world is doing the same, take for example the UK they are doing exactly the same as the US, Japan is doing the same, the Eurozone hasnt so much YET!!!!!, some argue that the eurozone is in worse shape has they have not actually got their debt of their balance sheets yet i think the Euro banks are in real deep poo look at the problems in Germany and Deutsche Bank, the Eurozone IMO still are hiding their problems

the strength in the Yen is on the back of the Yen carry trade the weakness in the British pound is on the back of the same games as the fed is doing

so the debate will still rage on as many try to posistion themselves for the expected inflationary move, but my actual throughts are that we are heading for a deflationary period 1st followed by inflation 2nd, but how long this period lasts is anyones guess, untill the actual excess dollars that Bernake is printing get into the system then you will have the strength loss in the US$ but the Fed`s major problem is that they cant not print dollars fast enough for the deflationary forces at the moment, as what we are in the midst is a massive credit contraction pretty much the worlds spending in the last 15 years from the 90`s has been on the back of factional reserve lending hence the wealth destruction taking place

the banks do not want to lend as they are well aware of consumer in the US so are reluctant to lend knowing full well that the US consumer is tapped out in Debt no matter how much credit is available if you dont have the ability to pay,(such as you have already maxed out on a credit binge or no job how are you meant to repay credit you loan??? ) no deal with credit is any good and the banks know this hence why they refuse to lend money

Only this week GM are giving away cars at 0% for 5 years yet have to pay a coupon of 8% to the goverment for the money they lent them, errrrr hows are they going to make a profit???

GM are a bankruptcy waiting to happen (ps thats a short to 0 if are traders out there imo)

and thats the deflationary forces at work the Fed is fighting they have tried all games and thrown aload of money into the problem and still houses decline and people loose Jobs and in 2009 imo is going to get worse before it slows and then we see the inflation take hold

Its simple mathematics but the FED is bunch of morons

The US$ is the king of currencies Imo at the moment untill this destruction of wealth and deflationary period finally resolves itself

I am not a gold bug here unless it becomes a lot cheaper (its one of a few assets that i would own once the inflationary period arrives) but like all asett group timing is everything, buying oil and gold are worth hedging for any inflationary period

the saying of "cash is king" is paramount at the moment i am not of the opinon of buying assetts yet, not untill this wealth destruction and the deflationary period resolve themselves then i am a buyer of Hard assets, for the then expected inflationary bubble of the money expansion from around the world, but get your timing wrong on this bet and you will loose your ass, hence i am a holder of cash and do not hold any asetts i sold "everything"

other factors to consider is who is going to buy US debt??? if the chinese and japanese carry on then this debt train carry on longer than you think, the bigger long term picture is very poor for the US but when that happens is anyones guess this may continue to carry on for years yet hence the timing of any such collapse of the US$

the decoupling theory is not working the asians need the US consumer to consume in porder for their economies to prosper hence everyone is going to suffer unless some magic way they get economies and people back in jobs

the saying of "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is very true, make the wrong call and its hasta la vista

which ever side of the inflation/deflation debate you choose, make the wrong call and you will loose your butt right now i am happy to hold cash but tentative to market conditions if i see inflationary forces working i will buy assett, if not holding cash is fine

Just because something appears cheap does not make it a bargain, prices can go a lot lower hence when the "bottom is in " market callers stop calling the "bottom is in " and simply give up then i know a bottom is near and the buying oppertunity is near right now too many still think Obama is the saviour to fix all the problems let the euphoria wear off and see that the problems cant be fixed then we will see the real destruction and slow pain

Hope that heps

Imo

Edited January 1, 2009 by Nouf

[zorro1]

the current situation is like a clogged toilet

money (liquid) is being pumped in to move the clog

once the clog is removed there will be a lot of liquid

another term for this is inflation

inflation is what drives countries forward

major countries of the G7 are now printing money (liquid) as fast as they can

get ready for inflation

buy half price stocks now and enjoy the ride up.

the sky is not falling

agreed I have been catching falling knives in the last month and takes guts but you got to buy when others are fearful! it will pay off handsomely in next 5-10 yrs

it might take a bit longer but don't worry. keep on flying cattle class your heirs will fly first class!

Not True!!! notice the time difference between my response? I am in Front! missed the first pump with BHP from 22 to 30 but got on board big time on second pump from 22 and sold at 31. I didn't know anything about the markets except buy in the dips and sell in the rallies and having a ball but have gone long now. All of my stock bought after the crash so me thinks 1st class next year lol.

stock I hold

ext uranium

vgh (great news just released)

ipl cant go wrong we have to eat and blow things up

ang hmmm should improve

mah jewel in the crown, Aus infrastructure major drive by Kev

gda 1 mill shares at .008 spec

finally.....

BNB bugger holding at 40c but has found a platform

Anyone else care to disclose?

[LaoPo]

Debasing of the dollar against all other main currencies. Those other countries will not be happy because their reserves (ha ha ha ha, how can you call pieces of fiat paper with ink reserves) is ultimately without a real value.

Europe still has around 58% in gold reserves but a country like china has only a few percent.

Pumping (inflating) trillions into the economy also not helps, making high inflation inevitable. There goes your pension and savings.

If i were an American i would get out of dollars while you still can. I think inflation and a collapse will not happen very fast, there is much more money from the middle class to suck out first.

This site tells it how it is. Chris Martenson's website. * He leaves out a lot of bias you normally see with others and because of that his message is much more stronger.

1. Concerning the $:

I wrote that I dared to say that the greenback would hit $ 1,80 to the Euro within 18-24 months here: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Where-s-Us-H...02#entry2413402

The only thing I'm probably incorrect about is the time frame; it's probably sooner than 18-24 months before the Dollar will hit $ 1,80 to the Euro.

2. Concerning Gold reserves Europe versus China:

Europe has no gold mines, apart from Russia and a bit in Turkey; China has large gold reserves as well as large goldmines themselves.... study better Jean, before you claim.** In fact, China is the largest Gold producing country in the world.***

China is exploring other reserves in many different locations. Surprises are not to be excluded in the next few years.

Apart from that, the population of (a single country) China is almost twice (1,3 Billion) of Europe's (ca.. 700 million) which consists of many many countries. How can you compare ?

* One of the most important lessons, nowadays, is that one should AVOID listening or following the advises from so called Gurus and "specialists" and "Ana(l)ists" !

Ask yourself (everybody) WHY those guys are having websites, telling other people what they SHOULD do...or should not do.....

Does Warren Buffett have a website telling others what to do ?

** You seem to be fixated lately on gold, gold and GOLD.... losing the helicopter view about the rest. You wrote earlier that you invested 30% of your ''capital'' in gold bars, stashed away in a vault....I wish you luck but what you're doing is quite risky. But that's my personal opinion.

*** "GFMS said SA's (South Africa, LP) production for the whole of 2007 dropped 8,1% to 272 tons while China's rose 12% to 276 tons. Production increased in Indonesia, Brazil and Ghana, and was stable in Australia."

From: allAfrica: "Booming China is World's New Egoli" (Egoli is the name for South Africa's first -very successful- soapie, which came to an end, LP)

http://allafrica.com/stories/200801180517.html

LaoPo

[flying]

Its simple mathematics but the FED is bunch of morons

I think your post is one of the best I have read in a long time but..............

This one statement I think is where many are missing something....myself included.

I think they have an agenda that benefits themselves but it is not the best one for us.

I believe as usual they are getting our attention on their right hand while their left does what they intend.

[Khun Jean]

Gold holdings are no secret as are other statistics.

As a registered user of the World Gold Council website i have access to reports, actually when you register you can get those too.

Here is the link Official Gold Holdings. (Remember have to register (free) first).

rank country tonnes %of foreign reserve

1 United States 8,133.5 76.5%

2 Germany 3,412.6 64.4%

3 IMF 3,217.3 1)

4 France 2,508.8 58.7%

5 Italy 2,451.8 61.9%

6 Switzerland 1,040.1 23.8%

7 Japan 765.2 1.9%

8 Netherlands 621.4 57.8%

9 China 600.0 0.9%

For china that would mean they have their other 91.9% of foreign reserves as dollars, euros, etc.

I was indeed wrong with 'several percentages'. It is actually 0.9%

Indeed how can you compare the 600 tonnes owned by China with The Europe area having 10,886 tonnes.

Edited January 1, 2009 by Khun Jean

[LaoPo]

Gold holdings are no secret as are other statistics.

As a registered user of the World Gold Council website i have access to reports, actually when you register you can get those too.

Here is the link Official Gold Holdings. (Remember have to register (free) first).

rank country tonnes %of foreign reserve

1 United States 8,133.5 76.5%

2 Germany 3,412.6 64.4%

3 IMF 3,217.3 1)

4 France 2,508.8 58.7%

5 Italy 2,451.8 61.9%

6 Switzerland 1,040.1 23.8%

7 Japan 765.2 1.9%

8 Netherlands 621.4 57.8%

9 China 600.0 0.9%

For china that would mean they have their other 91.9% of foreign reserves as dollars, euros, etc.

I was indeed wrong with 'several percentages'. It is actually 0.9%

Indeed how can you compare the 600 tonnes owned by China with The Europe area having 10,886 tonnes.

Indeed...a meager 600 tonnes whilst producing 276 tonnes themselves in 2007 alone, wouldn't you agree ?

Ever studied a bit about China Jean ?

LaoPo

[Khun Jean]

But even if they keep the whole 276 tonnes, that would mean they go from 0.9% to 0.95%

About 1% every two years. Going from 1 to say about 50% to get in the area Europa has would take them ..... almost a hundred years.

Edited January 1, 2009 by Khun Jean

[LaoPo]

But even if they keep the whole 276 tonnes, that would mean they go from 0.9% to 0.95%

About 1% every two years. Going from 1 to say about 50% to get in the area Europa has would take them ..... almost a hundred years.

sigh....I don't think you got my point.

Do you really believe that the Chinese would tell anybody how many -gold- reserves they have ?

Really, I'm visiting the country for more than 30 years and the more I learn about China, it's history and their leaders the more I'm amazed. The think tanks they have surpass many of the brightest in the world. Many people do not understand how the Communist Party choose their leaders; they are the most intelligent and brightest brains in the country. It's not even easy to become a member..did you know that ?

I am not saying I agree with the Chinese system, just trying to explain that the Chinese are far from stupid and certainly don't have a big mouth or trying to show off with what they have/possess or not, contrary to most western countries and societies.

Khun Jean: you should stop believing everything you read (in a website) and take it for granted, including Chris Martenson's website and the World Gold Council which is nothing more than a PROMOTION organization/website for connected gold mining companies.

WHAT interest do you think they have ?

If you would have visited just a few mega cities in China, with 5, 10, 15, 20 or even 30 million people you would understand how immense large the country is and how many jewelers' shops there are. If I than read that a certain council says China has -just- 600 tons of gold as reserves I have to smile.

I have no idea how many tons of gold there are in jewelers' shops but the amount must be enormous, like their Great Wall.......only when you've climbed it you realize how immense the country is....with their 1.300.000.000 people....

IMHO: you have a pretty high gold fever.

LaoPo

[Khun Jean]

In that case which numbers can be trusted. If everything is not true except what you see with your own eyes what is the point of an organisation like the IMF or The ECB, or numbers like inflation, GDP etc..I think i go buy some more gold.

[LaoPo]

In that case which numbers can be trusted. If everything is not true except what you see with your own eyes what is the point of an organisation like the IMF or The ECB, or numbers like inflation, GDP etc..I think i go buy some more gold.

Good idea, the Far East consumers, including China stopped buying gold...they've other things to care about now.

LaoPo

[flying]

I think i go buy some more gold.

Easy now...........they will label you a gold bug ...dont ya know?

Me I'm still 80% cash & I have been called a gold bug numerous times.

There must be an unwritten rule that you may not find any article the least bit interesting if it mentions the possiblity of any alternatives to a fiat currency.

Who made this rule & why didn't I get the memo? Probably the ones that protest the most hold many FRN's

[LaoPo]

I think i go buy some more gold.

Easy now...........they will label you a gold bug ...dont ya know?

Me I'm still 80% cash & I have been called a gold bug numerous times.

There must be an unwritten rule that you may not find any article the least bit interesting if it mentions the possiblity of any alternatives to a fiat currency.

Who made this rule & why didn't I get the memo? Probably the ones that protest the most hold many FRN's

If you chaps insist on metals...buy silver.

Me, I'm just into white gold...

LaoPo

[flying]

I think i go buy some more gold.

Easy now...........they will label you a gold bug ...dont ya know?

Me I'm still 80% cash & I have been called a gold bug numerous times.

There must be an unwritten rule that you may not find any article the least bit interesting if it mentions the possiblity of any alternatives to a fiat currency.

Who made this rule & why didn't I get the memo? Probably the ones that protest the most hold many FRN's

If you chaps insist on metals...buy silver.

Me, I'm just into white gold...

LaoPo

ok better not to say

Edited January 2, 2009 by flying

[Wrong Turn]

Khun Jean and nouf,

Thanks for the reply and FYIs. I also bookmarked that site.

As for the US real-estate (owner-occupied housing) I see it as still over-valued if you look at the median income.

Hopefully in 2009 housing will continue to decline, even though 1/6 homeowners owe more than their house is worth (that is 16% of all homeowners.)

I am thinking of returning to the US for a few months, but have my doubts about doing this.

[bingobongo]

unless asia is able to create a unicorn that craps skittles (a delicious tangy fruit flavored candy) then 2009 should be fun filled ride......

Asia’s Economic Slump Deepens as Manufacturing, Exports Shrink

“Asia is facing a growth shock with indicators suggesting the contraction will be as sharp as during the depth of the Asian financial crisis,” said Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...p;refer=economy

[jcon]

unless asia is able to create a unicorn that craps skittles (a delicious tangy fruit flavored candy) then 2009 should be fun filled ride......

Asia's Economic Slump Deepens as Manufacturing, Exports Shrink

"Asia is facing a growth shock with indicators suggesting the contraction will be as sharp as during the depth of the Asian financial crisis," said Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...p;refer=economy

Ok Bingo, if it happens the way you say it, what currency would you want to hold... and (along that line) which currency should fare better against the others (let's include asian currencies + AUD + Nz)....

A genuine question. You really called the "Get in to the Yen" when you made your final "recommendations." That was a great carry trade call, would have been even more incredible if I held the trade for longer....

Bingo? I would like to hear from you, maybe we can even get you to discuss issues instead of poppin in to just say things and leave...

[Naam]

Bingo? I would like to hear from you, maybe we can even get you to discuss issues instead of poppin in to just say things and leave...

don't hold your breath. Bingo has never discussed anything in this forum. he's afraid that someone points out how many of his individual predictions were completely wrong.

[Naam]

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - A grim economic outlook highlights the need for the Federal Reserve to step up quantitative measures to boost growth, with official interest rates already effectively at zero, Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said on Saturday.

Evans said that based on the outlook for rising unemployment, falling industrial production and a wider output gap, economic models suggest rates should be below zero.

"If it were not constrained by zero, those models would want to push it below zero, but that's not possible," Evans told reporters after a panel at the American Economic Association's meeting in San Francisco.

Quantitative easing, a way to flood the banking system with large amounts of money, "is a way to mimic below-zero rates and provide support to the economy," he said.

The process often involves buying up large quantities of assets from banks, such as the Fed's latest programs to buy mortgage-backed securities.

In December, the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-setting body, took the surprising step of lowering the federal funds rate to a range of zero to 0.25 percent. Cash fed funds had been trading below the previous 1 percent target rate for several weeks.

In his remarks, Evans, who is a voting member of the FOMC in 2009, said the Fed's various lending programs should help cushion the impact of the year-old U.S. recession but a large traditional fiscal stimulus plan is also needed, even with the problems it could create over the longer term.

"I believe a big stimulus is appropriate," Evans said. "But it is sobering to be deploying large amounts of taxpayer funds at a time when our fiscal balance sheet is already coming under significant stress."

Without the Fed's programs to help unfreeze credit markets and to-the-bone rate cuts, "the downturn -- and its costs to society -- would be even more severe than what we are currently facing," said Evans.

Since the financial market crisis erupted, the Fed has created several new programs aimed at bypassing the traditional banking system and smashing through the credit-market logjam, including the direct purchase of mortgage-backed securities.

Even so, the U.S. jobless rate appears on pace to exceed 8 percent in 2009, from the most recent reading of 6.7 percent in November, Evans said.

Although the current recession started with the collapse of the U.S. housing market, Evans said many non-financial industries now face the risk of "long-term structural impairment."

Evans said fiscal programs to support growth "must be large in order to be effective and to instill badly needed confidence" given the severity of the downturn.

President-elect Barack Obama has said that signing a major economic stimulus package will be his first priority when he takes office on January 20, with a goal of creating 3 million jobs over two years.

Evans also said the market crisis that erupted in 2007 showed huge holes in financial regulation.

"Significant weaknesses have been revealed in our system of financial regulation. ... These failures call for a reassessment of the roles of market discipline and our regulatory structures," he said.

[Naam]

another good one for those who think the U.S. is economically far ahead of Europe

Factories mired in worst slump in 28 years

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. factory activity fell to a 28-year low in December as the deepening year-old recession hammered the manufacturing sector, producing a bleak outlook at the start of 2009.

The Institute for Supply Management said on Friday its index of national factory activity fell to 32.4 -- a figure indicating contraction and the lowest reading since 1980 -- from 36.2 in November. Its jobs gauge also hit the lowest level since 1982 and prices were the weakest since 1949.

The report on U.S. manufacturing echoed the dour tone set in factory surveys around the globe and indicated rough times ahead, with a gauge of new orders hitting its lowest level ever.

"Overall this is a very weak report, suggesting no sign of stabilization yet," said Ian Lyngen, interest rate strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

December's result represents a significant slump, since any reading below 50 in the overall ISM index indicates contraction.

Stocks briefly turned negative after the unexpectedly weak report but then resumed their New Year rally.

U.S. government bonds, generally sought after by investors during troubled economic times such as these, briefly added to gains but then fell, giving way to strength in stocks.

The dollar pared its gains versus the yen.

None of the manufacturing industries in the index reported growth and only two -- leather and allied products, and petroleum and coal products -- reported no change in activity compared to November.

"Manufacturing activity continued to decline at a rapid rate during the month of December," the report said. "Manufacturers are reducing inventories and shutting down capacity to offset the slower rate of activity."

Economists had expected a reading of 35.5, according to the median of their forecasts in a Reuters poll. Their 69 forecasts ranged from 32.0 to 40.0.

WEAK ALL OVER

Earlier, a similar report showed manufacturing activity in the euro zone sank to a record low for the survey in December, and the outlook remained grim as new orders also sank to new lows.

Factories in China and India also slashed output and jobs at a record pace in December.

Global manufacturing activity contracted for the seventh consecutive month in December to a record low, with price pressures tumbling, a survey showed on Friday.

The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI, compiled with research and supply management organizations, fell to 33.2 in December, the lowest level since the survey began 11 years ago, from 36.5 in November.

There was also little sign that the United States was poised to break out of the current recession, which many economists expect to last through the first half of 2009.

A measure of future economic growth in the United States and its annualized growth rate rose in the latest week but were still near all-time lows, a sign that an end to the recession is still out of sight, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose in the week ended December 26, to 108.0 from 106.8 in the previous week, which was revised from 106.6.

The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to negative 28.7 percent from minus 29.2 percent.

"Despite a three-week uptick, WLI growth remains close to its all-time low seen in early December, which tells us that the recession will persist for the time being," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

[midas]

g echoed the dour tone set in factory surveys around the globe and indicated rough times ahead, with a gauge of new orders hitting its lowest level ever.

WEAK ALL OVER

Earlier, a similar report showed manufacturing activity in the euro zone sank to a record low for the survey in December, and the outlook remained grim as new orders also sank to new lows.

Factories in China and India also slashed output and jobs at a record pace in December.

Global manufacturing activity contracted for the seventh consecutive month in December to a record low, with price pressures tumbling, a survey showed on Friday.

The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI, compiled with research and supply management organizations, fell to 33.2 in December, the lowest level since the survey began 11 years ago, from 36.5 in November.

There was also little sign that the United States was poised to break out of the current recession, which many economists expect to last through the first half of 2009.

A measure of future economic growth in the United States and its annualized growth rate rose in the latest week but were still near all-time lows, a sign that an end to the recession is still out of sight, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose in the week ended December 26, to 108.0 from 106.8 in the previous week, which was revised from 106.6.

The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to negative 28.7 percent from minus 29.2 percent.

"Despite a three-week uptick, WLI growth remains close to its all-time low seen in early December, which tells us that the recession will persist for the time being," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

And what will be the catalyst that will allow this I keep asking myself ?

I dont see any light at the end of the tunnel for much longer than this ?

[Khun Jean]

Deficits

Debt

Dollar

Demographics

Derivatives

Devaluations

Deflation

Devolution

[bingobongo]

all hel_l is about to break loose, are you ready?

and yes, despite the unicorns and rainbows, LOS will feel more pain......

January 7 – Bloomberg (Anchalee Worrachate): “Britain may overwhelm bond investors with a record number of quarterly debt sales, risking the first failed auctions since 2002… ‘I’m not predicting that we will have failed auctions, but I can’t rule that out,’ Robert Stheeman, chief executive officer of the U.K. Debt Management Office, or DMO, said… ‘It’s a big amount of debt to be sold. We are in a very different world than we were six months or a year ago.

[lannarebirth]

CAN DEFLATION BE PREVENTED?

Paul Krugman

This week's cover story in The Economist makes it more or less official. Deflation, not inflation, is now the greatest concern for the world economy. Over the past year, producer prices have fallen throughout the advanced world; consumer prices have been falling for the last 6 months in France and Germany; in Japan wages have actually fallen 4 percent over the past year. Until the recent crisis prices were falling in Brazil; they continue to fall in China and Hong Kong; they will probably soon be falling in a number of other developing countries.

http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/deflator.html

[lannarebirth]

all hel_l is about to break loose, are you ready?

and yes, despite the unicorns and rainbows, LOS will feel more pain......

January 7 – Bloomberg (Anchalee Worrachate): "Britain may overwhelm bond investors with a record number of quarterly debt sales, risking the first failed auctions since 2002… 'I'm not predicting that we will have failed auctions, but I can't rule that out,' Robert Stheeman, chief executive officer of the U.K. Debt Management Office, or DMO, said… 'It's a big amount of debt to be sold. We are in a very different world than we were six months or a year ago.

Equity markets coiling for a big move sometime in next 2 weeks. I'm guessing, down.

Meanwhile the 3 Trillion in sovereign debt that govts will try to move this year is off to a shaky start:

Bonds caught betwee supply surge and deflation

By David Oakley and Michael Mackenzie

Published: November 13 2008 19:56 | Last updated: November 13 2008 19:56

For any government looking to raise money in the capital markets in the next few months, there was an ­ominous development in Germany this week.

A German 10-year bond auction failed – something more or less unheard of until this year – as cash-strapped banks and investors snubbed the government offering.

It is a clear sign of straitened times when a benchmark bond in one of the most liquid markets in the world cannot attract enough bids to reach its target amount.

Crucially, it raises serious doubts about whether governments can raise the vast amounts of debt needed to fund fiscal stimulus packages and bank recapitalisations in the current tough market conditions.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9cbf7d56-b1bc-11...00779fd18c.html

[whiterussian]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djgH9wA-JSU

Dooooooomed!

The rise and fall of the American empire.

[lannarebirth]

Latest thoughts from one of the words leading experts on economic cycles:

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/...depression.html

[flying]

Latest thoughts from one of the words leading experts on economic cycles:

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/...depression.html

We are facing a Depression that will last 23-26 years. The response of government is going to seal our fate because they cannot learn from the past and will make the same mistakes that every politician has made before them. Even if the Dow Industrials make new highs next week (impossible), the Depression is unstoppable with current models and tools.

The $700 billion bailout might have worked if Paulson did what he said he would - buy the debt and take it out of the banks. Had the debt been segregated into a pool and managed independently by a hedge fund manager not an investment banker, we could have mitigated the problem. But that is now too late.

Sad sobering stuff indeed