A classified U.S. report doubts that Iran’s opposition would take power following either a short or extended U.S. military campaign.

A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”

The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran’s leaders or a broader assault against its leadership and government institutions, the people familiar with its findings said. In both cases, the intelligence concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power, these people said.

https://archive.ph/0esug#selection-383.0-425.20

Should the Trump war effort fail to dislodge the mullahs from power, I suspect that we'll see the same reaction from supporter of this war that we saw when Trump decided that rescuing the Venezuelan people from oppression, from a corrupt government characterized as a narcoterrorist cartel, really wasn't an issue after all. Down the memory hole for the people of Iran.

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2. Middle East

Israeli Officials Think Iran’s Regime Isn’t Likely to Fall Soon

nlikely to fall in the immediate future, as Tehran’s battered rulers remain in control and conditions on the ground aren’t yet ripe for a popular uprising, people familiar with the matter said.

Nearly two weeks into the war, Iran’s military and political leadership appears functional and responsive to events, while its domestic opponents have been cowed by a heavy security presence. Israeli officials assess that changing the equation would likely require many more weeks or months of fighting.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that he wasn’t sure if Iranians would be able to topple the Islamic republic although he said Israel was working to create the conditions that would allow for it.

https://archive.ph/SmU8H

The 3 people who supposedly confirmed the report need to come forward.

Could be called the "Captain Obvious" report.

The 'Intel' seems evidenced by the lack of progress so far - currently there's NO sign of the populace taking over as Trump expected. This adventure was based on a serious misreading of Iran, who are making a determined effort to take us all down with them.

22 minutes ago, blaze master said:

The 3 people who supposedly confirmed the report need to come forward.

There's no need for anyone to "come forward" now.

Reality has proven that their intel assessment was correct.

Not so surprisingly, the intel community's top expert on Iran was fired last year, because his analysis differed from Trump's "gut feel". At first, his assessment was presented to Trump by DNI Gabbard, but when she saw Trump was upset because someone did not share his gut feel, the intel guy---Mike Collins---was fired.

Also, the FBI's top people involved in Iranian counterintelligence were fired a few weeks ago, because they had also been the counterintel folks investigating the theft of highly classified documents by Trump.

But don't worry; DHS domestic terror chief is a 23 year old former landscape gardener, given his position because he had volunteered during the 2024 campaign. No doubt he is an expert on crabgrass, lawn mites...maybe even burrowing moles, should any of those pose a direct threat to a Trump golf course.

Why have any intel experts, when you can have hunches, gut feel and Carnival People.

33 minutes ago, Wingate said:

There's no need for anyone to "come forward" now.

Reality has proven that their intel assessment was correct.

Not so surprisingly, the intel community's top expert on Iran was fired last year, because his analysis differed from Trump's "gut feel". At first, his assessment was presented to Trump by DNI Gabbard, but when she saw Trump was upset because someone did not share his gut feel, the intel guy---Mike Collins---was fired.

Also, the FBI's top people involved in Iranian counterintelligence were fired a few weeks ago, because they had also been the counterintel folks investigating the theft of highly classified documents by Trump.

But don't worry; DHS domestic terror chief is a 23 year old former landscape gardener, given his position because he had volunteered during the 2024 campaign. No doubt he is an expert on crabgrass, lawn mites...maybe even burrowing moles, should any of those pose a direct threat to a Trump golf course.

Why have any intel experts, when you can have hunches, gut feel and Carnival People.

Well as a super spy surely you know that revealing classified information is against the law.

Now deflect away from that reality.

@Alan Zweibel One word posts will be removed. Try full sentences.

Only and idiot would think otherwise - oh I forgot Trump/Hegseth - fun times ahead peeps - the Orange clown world sherriff is in town wafted into the portals of power on the backs of the Great Deplorables in the belly of the Great Satan. The enemies of the west couldn't have hoped they would have such a spectacular result. Putin/Xi be laughing like hyenas. USA USA USA ....