Anutin Faces Multiple Risks as Second Term Begins

Anutin Charnvirakul has formally begun a second term as prime minister and is moving to form a Bhumjaithai-led cabinet, facing  major pressure points that could shape his administration. Analysts warn of immediate risks including an energy crisis, rising public debt, inflation, US trade pressures and politically sensitive legal cases. These issues are described as “ticking time bombs” requiring urgent and coordinated government action.

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The challenges come amid heightened global and domestic uncertainty, particularly due to prolonged Middle East tensions affecting oil supply. Concerns around the Strait of Hormuz have increased price volatility. Thailand’s Oil Fuel Fund is already more than 12 billion baht in deficit following a 15-day diesel price freeze, while public debt has reached about 66% of GDP, or over 12.66 trillion baht, nearing the 70% fiscal ceiling.

Experts highlight the compounded risks of global trade tensions and domestic economic strain. The United States is pursuing protectionist policies under Section 301 targeting countries with trade surpluses, including Thailand, focusing on goods such as automobiles, machinery and rubber. Nonarit Bisonyabut of the Thailand Development Research Institute warned that government measures on oil, gas and key industrial inputs may only stabilise conditions for three to four months, adding that prolonged conflict could disrupt supply chains and drive inflation. He also cautioned that reliance on debt-funded subsidies and short-term stimulus could pose long-term economic risks.

Rising oil prices are already feeding into inflation and living costs, with the Commerce Ministry signalling a potential shift after months of negative inflation. The National Economic and Social Development Council estimates inflation could reach 1.9% if oil exceeds US$100 per barrel and potentially surpass 3% if prices rise beyond US$120. Consumer confidence stood at 53.7 in February 2026, the highest in nine months but still below 100, reflecting ongoing concerns over weak purchasing power. Political stability is also under scrutiny due to cases such as the Khao Kradong dispute and a Senate collusion investigation, which could affect confidence in the government.

The Nation reported that the government is expected to prioritise energy supply management, price controls and international trade negotiations while reassessing fiscal policy. Anutin has indicated that fuel shortages should ease within two weeks, while ministers are accelerating efforts to secure alternative energy sources, including oil imports from Russia. Analysts stress the need for longer-term solutions, including energy-saving measures and expanded trade agreements, as short-term tools may prove insufficient if global instability persists.

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Adapted by ASEAN Now Nation 24 Mar 2026

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