Cambodia’s cyber-fraud crackdown weighs on growth

Kiripost

Cambodia has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.2%, citing the combined impact of a sweeping crackdown on cyber-fraud and rising global tensions. Officials acknowledged that shutting down scam compounds—many operating out of casinos—will hit construction, real estate and consumer spending in the short term.

The government had previously projected 5% growth this year, but now expects only 4.2%, with a modest rebound to 5% in 2027. The International Monetary Fund is even more cautious, predicting 4% growth in what it calls a “reset year” after the post-pandemic rebound.

Authorities say the clampdown is essential to restore investor confidence. In January and February alone, Cambodia closed 190 scam centres, including 44 casinos accused of running fraudulent operations. High-profile figures such as Chen Zhi, alleged to be behind one of the world’s largest online fraud networks, have been deported.

Duke Lim Heng, vice president of the Cambodian Chamber of Commerce, stressed the need to “control tech scams and gangs” to attract foreign capital. Online scams in Cambodia have been linked to money laundering, human trafficking and other serious crimes.

Yet watchdogs remain sceptical. Amnesty International argues that while the government touts enforcement, it continues to approve casino projects where abusive scam compounds operate.

The wider economic picture is complicated by external shocks. Fuel prices in Cambodia have surged since February—diesel up 87%, propane 70%—driven by the war in the Middle East. Analysts warn that prolonged hostilities could further strain food prices, tourism and manufacturing across ASEAN.

The garment sector is already feeling the pressure. A Chinese-owned factory in Poipet abruptly closed last month, leaving nearly 700 workers jobless amid border disputes with Thailand. NGOs warn that prolonged closures could devastate special economic zones along the frontier.

Despite the turbulence, regional research body AMRO projects Cambodia’s economy will grow 4.9% this year, with inflation at 2.9%. It expects conditions to improve in 2027, forecasting 5.2% growth and easing inflation.

For now, Cambodia faces a delicate balancing act: tackling cyber-crime to safeguard its reputation while absorbing the economic shock of regional conflicts and disrupted trade.

-2026-05-12