El Nino threatens Vietnam with heat and water shortages

Photo courtesy of VietnamNet

A medium-to-strong El Nino is expected to affect Vietnam through 2027, increasing the risk of prolonged heat, drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion across several regions.

The event formed in mid-2026 and has developed quickly, according to the Department of Hydrometeorology under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. Forecasters put the probability of it continuing through the second half of 2026 and into 2027 at more than 95%.

There is a 60-65% chance that El Nino will become very strong by late 2026. If it weakens early next year, the main effects are expected during the 2026-2027 dry season. If it lasts until mid-2027, the most serious heat, drought, water shortages, saltwater intrusion and delayed rains are expected between March and June.

Heat and drought risks are rising

Average temperatures could be 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius above long-term levels nationwide, with parts of northern and central Vietnam potentially 2-3 degrees warmer. Heatwaves may arrive earlier, last longer and become more intense.

Seasonal rainfall is forecast to decline by 10-30%, while some South Central areas could receive more than 50% less rain. River and stream flows may fall by 20-40%, raising drought risks in the South Central Coast, Central Highlands and Mekong Delta.

In the Mekong Delta, the four-gram-per-litre salinity boundary could move 90-125 kilometres inland along the Vam Co River, 85-90 kilometres along the Cua Tieu and 70-80 kilometres along the Ham Luong. More than 350,000 hectares of winter-spring rice could be affected, alongside fruit farms, aquaculture and water supplies for millions of coastal residents.

Fewer storms but erratic extremes

Vietnam may see about eight to 10 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea during the El Nino period, below the long-term average. However, individual systems could follow more complex tracks and become stronger.

Forecasters also expect 16-19 episodes of extreme rainfall. Intense rain after prolonged dry conditions could trigger flash floods and landslides in the northern mountains and Central Highlands, as well as urban flooding. Officials have urged residents and local authorities to monitor forecasts, store water, conserve electricity and water, and prepare for both drought and sudden heavy rain.

What it means for foreigners in Vietnam

Residents and long-stay visitors should expect greater pressure on water supplies and electricity during extended hot periods, particularly in drought-prone and coastal areas. Following provincial notices, conserving water and checking local conditions before overland travel will be important as the dry season develops.

Travellers should also remember that fewer storms do not mean lower risk from every weather event. Flexible plans and official weather alerts will matter during periods of intense rain, especially for mountain routes and flood-prone cities. The outlook remains a risk scenario rather than a certainty, and forecasts will be refined as the event develops.

23 July 2026