Vladimir Putin may threaten Britain over its support for Ukraine, but a direct Russian attack on the UK remains highly unlikely because Moscow knows the consequences of triggering a wider NATO war. The Kremlin’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric is instead designed to frighten Western governments into scaling back support for Kyiv, according to Katia Glod of the New Eurasia Strategies Centre. Moscow has a long record of threats and covert attacks Russia has repeatedly targeted Britain through espionage, sabotage and alleged assassination operations, from the killing of Alexander Litvinenko to the Novichok attack in Salisbury. More recent incidents have included an arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned warehouse and suspected Russian reconnaissance around Britain’s critical underwater infrastructure. Such operations offer Moscow a way to apply pressure while avoiding an open military confrontation. Glod says hybrid attacks — including cyber operations, espionage, criminal proxies and provocations around British waters and airspace — could intensify. Putin wants fear without triggering NATO The Kremlin faces a difficult balancing act. Putin wants Western governments to believe that arming Ukraine carries a price, while avoiding any action that could provoke direct conflict with a NATO member. “He knows that Russia doesn’t have the capacity to respond,” Glod said, arguing that Moscow is unlikely to test the alliance through a conventional attack. Repeated nuclear and military threats have also created a credibility problem. If warnings are issued but never acted upon, their deterrent effect can gradually weaken. Britain still faces a serious vulnerability That does not mean the UK is immune from danger. Russia has the ability to launch missiles towards Britain, including from systems positioned in Belarus, while concerns remain over the country’s ability to defend against a sustained air attack. Britain does not operate the US-made Patriot system used by several European allies for high-end missile defence. Yet the central calculation remains unchanged: a direct Russian strike on Britain would risk triggering NATO’s collective response. For Putin, that makes intimidation and covert pressure far more attractive than open war. Putin may threaten NATO over Ukraine – but he is too weak to do so
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