Trump’s economy problem turns midterms into referendum

Prices, Iran and Trump himself are dominating the fight for Congress

Donald Trump’s economic record is emerging as a major problem for Republicans heading into November’s midterm elections, with a new NBC News poll finding that 55% of registered voters believe the president’s policies have hurt the economy.

Trump’s overall approval rating has fallen to 41%, a second-term low in the NBC poll, while 56% disapprove of his job performance. The economic numbers mark a sharp change from the 2018 midterm cycle, when voters were considerably more likely to say Trump’s policies had helped rather than hurt the economy.

The cost-of-living squeeze

Inflation and the economy remain among voters’ biggest concerns, and Republicans have lost much of the advantage they previously enjoyed on economic issues.

Just 26% of voters in the latest survey say Trump’s policies have helped the economy, compared with 55% who say they have hurt it.

The president’s signature 2025 tax-and-spending package is also failing to generate overwhelming enthusiasm: 42% say they would be less likely to support a congressional candidate who backs the legislation, compared with 36% who say it would make them more likely to support that candidate.

Trump’s proposal for $5,000 payments to adults if Republicans retain control of Congress fares worse, with 46% saying it would make them less likely to support a candidate backing the idea.

Iran is another warning sign

The Iran war is adding another complication.

Sixty-two percent of voters say the war has not been worth it, compared with 33% who say it has been worth it. And 57% say they would be less likely to support a congressional candidate who backs the war.

That gives the conflict an unusually direct connection to the midterms — particularly because voters are already concerned about prices and the economy.

Democrats hold a narrow 4-point advantage over Republicans on which party voters trust more to handle the Iran war, although the figure is within the poll’s margin of error.

Trump himself becomes the issue

Perhaps the most striking finding is that Trump is becoming a central reason for voting rather than simply the president whose record voters are judging.

Forty-three percent of voters say their congressional vote is intended as a signal of opposition to Trump, compared with 27% who say it is intended as a signal of support.

Among independents, the gap is considerably wider: 46% describe their vote as a signal of opposition to Trump, while only 10% describe it as a signal of support.

That could make the president a particularly important factor in competitive House and Senate races, where Republican candidates must defend their own records while also navigating their relationship with Trump.

Geography keeps the race complicated

The numbers do not translate automatically into congressional control.

Democrats hold a 50%-45% advantage in the generic congressional ballot, but Republicans retain important geographic advantages, particularly in the Senate. Democrats would need to win several states that Trump carried comfortably in 2024 to take control of the chamber.

There is also no great enthusiasm for the Democratic brand. In the poll, 50% view the Democratic Party negatively, compared with 29% positively. The Republican Party is viewed positively by 36% and negatively by 49%.

So the picture is not simply one party surging ahead.

It is a more complicated election in which voters are unhappy with the president, unhappy about prices and increasingly concerned about the Iran war — while remaining distinctly unenthusiastic about the opposition party.

And that may be the central story heading into November: the midterms are increasingly being fought over Trump, but that does not automatically make them a Democratic election.

SOURCE

55% of voters saying they believe Trump's policies have hurt the economy.

That's up from 48% in March.

Really?

I wonder why...

Oh. Nevermind. 😄

JD Vance asked for a second chance! 😀

40 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

55% of voters saying they believe Trump's policies have hurt the economy.

That's up from 48% in March.

Really?

I wonder why...

Oh. Nevermind. 😄

Is it because CNN, MS Now and Politico have indoctrinated them into believing things on Market Street are not so good?