“Divide and conquer” has always been one of the simplest ways to weaken an opposing coalition. Russia could hardly ask for more than a NATO in which the Trump administration creates suspicion and resentment between allies. Whatever the merits of holding smaller working groups, selectively excluding major allies such as Britain, France and the Baltic states, particularly those that have taken defence spending and the Russian threat seriously, risks sending exactly the wrong message. Alliances ultimately depend on trust and the belief that members will stand together when it matters. By publicly berating allies, applying selective pressure and appearing to divide them into favoured and unfavoured camps, the Trump administration risks doing part of Russia’s work for it. You don’t need to defeat an alliance militarily if its members can be persuaded to distrust one another. Divide and conquer works best when your opponent volunteers to do the dividing for you!
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