Could Burnham’s voting reforms boost Reform?

Cleo Watson

Andy Burnham’s plans to overhaul Britain’s voting system could radically reshape Westminster — and former No 10 adviser Cleo Watson is warning Labour to consider who else could benefit.

Burnham has pledged to put electoral reform in Labour’s next manifesto and launched a national commission to examine alternatives to first-past-the-post. A more proportional system could give smaller parties a far larger presence in Parliament, potentially including Reform.

The numbers expose the fault line

The 2024 election showed just how sharply votes and seats can diverge. Labour won 411 Commons seats with 33.7% of the vote, while Reform secured 14.3% but returned only five MPs; the Liberal Democrats won 72 seats from 12.2%.

A proportional system is designed to bring the distribution of seats closer to parties’ overall vote shares. That could give smaller parties a substantially larger presence at Westminster — including Reform.

Watson warns Labour about unintended consequences

Speaking on In The Room, Watson urged Labour to be cautious about changing a system that has historically translated concentrated support into parliamentary seats.

“Imagine if those seats were distributed by actual vote share,” she said, warning: “You should be extremely careful about fiddling around with these kinds of systems.”

The point exposes an awkward political calculation for Labour: the party is proposing reform partly because it sees first-past-the-post as distorting representation, but a more proportional system could also give its rivals greater parliamentary strength.

The bigger fight is how reform gets done

Former deputy cabinet secretary Helen MacNamara questioned Burnham’s method as well as the substance. She argued that constitutional change normally requires detailed cross-party negotiation rather than a conference-stage announcement followed by an invitation for other parties to participate.

Burnham has nevertheless committed Labour to contesting the next election on electoral reform, while saying the commission will examine the available options. The eventual model has not yet been settled.

Labour is opening a constitutional gamble

The argument is therefore bigger than whether first-past-the-post is fair. Burnham is proposing a change that could alter the balance of power between Labour and its rivals — while the precise system, and its eventual political consequences, remain unresolved.

Why Burnham’s voting reforms could backfire on Labour