Burma’s Protests

[skipvice]

link to http://www.irrawaddy.org/ Underground news about burma

[mrtoad]

Could various Burmese threads be merged? They are largely duplicating each other.

Agreed, they should be merged.

[John K]

I was going along the thinking that this thread would be for the day after with things like population shifts, changes in local economy related to refugees and so on.

Active news about the ongoing events would be better suited for Mid”s thread.

[brahmburgers]

Despite whatever lipservice the Chinese or Thai governments may pay to the international community, both governments and private citizens of both countries, have huge investments in Burma. Those deals are mostly joint ventures with the currently ruling junta. They may take a public posture calling for restraint, but their interests are aligned with the junta in maintaining the staus quo. Prepare to be very disappointed by Thailands response to the demonstrations and the aftermath.

Asean in general, and Thailand in particular are hamstrung by indecision, and maybe that's a god thing.

Plus, even the Thai generals probably realize how hypocritical it would be to publically call for a true democratic process in Burma.

Asean has always been anemic, ineffectual and indecisive.

China essentially controls Shan State, and most of the powerful institutions in Burma - so it naturally doesn't want anarchy and riots. Malaysian and Indonesian anti-Chinese backlashes not-too-long-ago are probably still vivid in China's recollection.

[londonthai]

night curfiew in 2 biggest burmees cities anounced - doesn't sound good

[chinthee]

night curfiew in 2 biggest burmees cities anounced - doesn't sound good

This could be the beginning of very bad times to come.

[Johpa]

Burma has far deeper problems than the clowns running the place. There's a lot of ethnic hatred simmering that without a strong government, could make the balkans look like a tea party, as many of these ethnic groups have their own armies.

I find that the various Burmese minority members I encounter are all rather united against the current regime and are willing and eager to back Aung San Suu Kyi as a leader. I think most have a desire for national reconciliation. In addition, most of the minority groups do not have their own "armies" per se. They certainly have arms and trained cadres, but calling the Wa militias or the Free Burma Rangers "armies" is being overly generous. I think that a government of national reconciliation that would provide for a certain amount of autonomy in the non-Burman regions would not cause a Balkanization. I just don't find the long-standing ethnic hatreds that one sees in the Balkans apart from perhaps some of the evangelical folks who practice a rather intense form of Christianity.

But some Thais have much invested with the Burmese military as do the Chinese. Not that one can make a clean distinction between the two, Thailand and China that is. There are many influential Thais who have profited mightily by putting on the knee pads for the Burmese generals over the past several decades. (Some of us still remember Chawalit allowing Burmese troops to attack border refugee camps by entering Thai territory.) In a best case scenario for the people of Burma, an overthrow of these generals and putting them on trial could cause some very dirty Thai and Chinese laundry to be exposed.

But I suspect that there will be a violent reaction against the current protesters. If there is no major comment from the PRC it will only embolden the Thai generals to express their desire for power in a similar manner knowing that the emperors in Beijing will be pleased as long as proper tribute is offered.

[Scott]

I've worked in a number of conflict zones, so I do speak with some experience. As a very general rule (because I am not a close Burma watcher), these things don't usually take a smooth course. You have a military which is holed up out in the jungle and mass protests. You have a large number of people opposed to them, but also people who are beholden to them and foreign gov'ts who are beholden to them.

Most people oppose the regime, but are not necessarily going to give up their own power base, this is especially true for the ethnic groups, of which there are many.

My deepest hope is that it is a smooth transition, but I would be prepared for less than that.

[phazey]

night curfiew in 2 biggest burmees cities anounced - doesn't sound good

I'll still be going to the pub tonite.

[sriracha john]

night curfiew in 2 biggest burmees cities anounced - doesn't sound good

This could be the beginning of very bad times to come.

the curfew hours are 9 p.m. to 5 a.m.

and they have now also banned gatherings of more than 5 people... the law restricting gatherings carries a possible jail term of two years.

with soldiers in full battle gear deployed around Yangon... setting the stage for a showdown

in 1988, the government harshly put down a student-led democracy uprising when security forces fired into crowds of peaceful demonstrators and killed thousands...

[sriracha john]

night curfiew in 2 biggest burmees cities anounced - doesn't sound good

I'll still be going to the pub tonite.

be sure to be home by 9....

[cdnvic]

night curfiew in 2 biggest burmees cities anounced - doesn't sound good

I'll still be going to the pub tonite.

be sure to be home by 9....

Or stay till 6

[sugarhead]

Junta won't let go and they WILL be silently backed by China, Thailand and those everyone seem to forget : Malaysia (petronas plants) and most of all Singapore, who's been supporting them through business ventures for decades. China desperately needs natural resources to keep its over-heated economy going and one of their sources for natural gas is Burma. More than ever, money talks.......

[roietjimmy]

night curfiew in 2 biggest burmees cities anounced - doesn't sound good

I'll still be going to the pub tonite.

be sure to be home by 9....

Or stay till 6

I am reminded of my wilder days in Taiwan under Chiang Kai-shek and in the Philippines under Marcos. Both had marshall law in force. The bar owners loved marshall law. When the trucks carrying the troops hit the streets, customers who were at their establishments had to stay until morning with nothing else to do but drink. For those to drunk or tired to party all night, army cots were made available for a small fee.

Edited September 26, 2007 by roietjimmy

[bulmercke]

I sincerely hope there will be a peaceful transition to new regime. However that's probably wishful thinking. Whatever happens, I suppose it's inevitable that there will be an influx of burmese into thailand.

I noticed on Radio Thailand's news hour today that it wasn't even mentioned ! I guess the Thai government is quite scared of the possible fall out.

Typical.

link to http://www.irrawaddy.org/ Underground news about burma

Edited September 26, 2007 by bulmercke

[mark lamai]

"Spot on. While SLORC or whatever they go by now is reprehensible, the idea that everything would be hunky-dory if the military would just go away in naive. The regime was not imposed by outside forces, it is indigenous and supported by more Burmese than many probably imagine. There could well be tremendous bloodshed and turmoil--it won't be pretty."

I am sorry, but such ignorance is very sad.

should the Generals run away to Beijing, the process to democracy will be a bit messy but not violent.

please remember that they did have a democratic election in 1992 which went well (admitted the army was there to keep it nice).

Ne Win seized power in 1962 when the elected government was in confusion.

Well I have only met one Burmese who supports the Junta in over ten years of visiting there, a young kid who spoke like an Orwellian Bog Brother lover.

Opportunists! yes its a goldmine waiting for western exploitation (thats really depressing!!)

but it will take a very long time because of the lack of infrastructure, apalling roads, communications and electricity.

rebuilding those will take 10 years and many billions of dollars.

they doubled the price of petrol (gas), 1400Kyat per gallon before, because the Junta is so broke, some say because they spent it all on the new capital at Naypidaw.

there is a 2 gallon a day ration, so blackmarket gas is double the official price = about 6000Kyat (about US$5).

tonight 27th Nov.

reports not confirmed.

curfew is now 6pm to 6 am.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been taken to Insein gaol.

7 or 9 monks have been killed.

Schools are closing and people not going to work.

China can easily force the Junta to negotiate by denying their money, and China is concerned about its image with the Olympics coming up.

Thailand 1. doesn't care because they don't like the Burmese and 2. have money invested and don't want to lose it.

thank the gods for the internet, which did not exist in '88.

my Burmese friend here with me in Aus is able to online chat to friends all over including in Burma.

Personally . i feel quite terrified at what might happen.

[qualtrough]

"Spot on. While SLORC or whatever they go by now is reprehensible, the idea that everything would be hunky-dory if the military would just go away in naive. The regime was not imposed by outside forces, it is indigenous and supported by more Burmese than many probably imagine. There could well be tremendous bloodshed and turmoil--it won't be pretty."

I am sorry, but such ignorance is very sad.

should the Generals run away to Beijing, the process to democracy will be a bit messy but not violent.

please remember that they did have a democratic election in 1992 which went well (admitted the army was there to keep it nice).

Ne Win seized power in 1962 when the elected government was in confusion.

Well I have only met one Burmese who supports the Junta in over ten years of visiting there, a young kid who spoke like an Orwellian Bog Brother lover.

Opportunists! yes its a goldmine waiting for western exploitation (thats really depressing!!)

but it will take a very long time because of the lack of infrastructure, apalling roads, communications and electricity.

rebuilding those will take 10 years and many billions of dollars.

they doubled the price of petrol (gas), 1400Kyat per gallon before, because the Junta is so broke, some say because they spent it all on the new capital at Naypidaw.

there is a 2 gallon a day ration, so blackmarket gas is double the official price = about 6000Kyat (about US$5).

tonight 27th Nov.

reports not confirmed.

curfew is now 6pm to 6 am.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been taken to Insein gaol.

7 or 9 monks have been killed.

Schools are closing and people not going to work.

China can easily force the Junta to negotiate by denying their money, and China is concerned about its image with the Olympics coming up.

Thailand 1. doesn't care because they don't like the Burmese and 2. have money invested and don't want to lose it.

thank the gods for the internet, which did not exist in '88.

my Burmese friend here with me in Aus is able to online chat to friends all over including in Burma.

Personally . i feel quite terrified at what might happen.

Not really sure what to make of your rambling post here, which starts off with a portion of a post I made earlier, although nobody would know it since you didn't use the quote function. I will add italics to the portion of the quoted post above that I wrote so that others can distinguish what I wrote from what you wrote. I also don't know what to make of someone who tells us that, "the process to democracy will be messy but not violent", while we already have reports of 8 dead in the streets of Rangoon. Your conviction that the course of democracy will not be violent is certainly contradicted by your closing words, "i [sic] feel terrified at what might happen." I am not a SLORC supporter, as you seem to imply, and your ignorance of Burmese history will be readily apparent to anyone with more than a passing familiarity with Burma. BTW, November 27th??

[cdnvic]

perhaps?

[qualtrough]

perhaps?

I was thinking that too...

[uk_falang]

I imagine Thai will have to remain numeral, as there is not currently a democracy here either.

I imagine Thai people don't really care unless they will be affected - refugees etc. The government cant really say anything, apart from protecting their own interests. Burma is quite a scary neighbor to have, they have a huge army - albeit not well equipped, trained, or motivated. Most Burmese soldiers are conscripts and couldn't give a rats arse about the Junta. If there is going to be any impact in Thailand at the moment, Mae Sai is likely to be a hot spot. There will likely be a build up of Thai troops to control any refugees if it escalates. Also Tachilek border is a melting pot of Shan, Wa and other ethnic groups and small armies.

I have to say I really cant see what international pressure can do to influence Burma. The Junta really dont give a monkeys about their people as they have clearly shown. Denying US visas to Burmese officials isn't going to do anything.

[EastSaxCol]

I have to say I really cant see what international pressure can do to influence Burma. The Junta really dont give a monkeys about their people as they have clearly shown. Denying US visas to Burmese officials isn't going to do anything.

Hard to believe I know. But the top ranks in the miltary junta do care about how they are perceived in the world. They want to send their kids to the best universities,e.g in the UK and America. No visas or the brutal junta presumably means no trucking with their children as well.

Any international pressure can be nothing but a good thing. The Burmese people themselves are calling for tougher sanctions - even if this means a bit more hardship upon themselves in the short-term.

The is the UK homepage for The Burma Campaign.

http://www.burmacampaign.org.uk/

[uk_falang]

Why not air-strike their military bases. It wouldnt take too much to break the conscript soldiers loyalty and have them running for the hills.. Followed by large scale financial support for the shan army, weapons, tanks etc. No foreign forces in Myanmar, just the full support of the UN air forces.

And how about this new city they built in the jungle, couldnt they just carpet bomb it? A few warning shots to scare the civilians away and then flatten the place.

Sure there would be civilian casualties, but would it be for the better good.