General Election Confirmed To Be Held On December 23, 2007

[Jai Dee]

Senators elected in 2000, banned from running in election

Former chairman of the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC), Sqn.Ldr.Prasong Soonsiri (ประสงค์ สุ่นศิริ), says former senators elected in 2000 cannot run in the general election in December as the act may violate the 2007 Constitution.

Sqn.Ldr.Prasong adds that the 111 executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party cannot deliver political speeches as they are defined as part of the 'political activities'. However, he says they can listen to speeches by political parties but should be careful when giving opinions.

According to the former CDC chairman, Article 116 of the 2007 Constitution prohibits senators whose term has ended for less than two years from being appointed as ministers or other political-title holders.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 November 2007

[Jai Dee]

Top Thai candidate roams red-light, working-class districts ahead of December election

Seeking the votes of night watchmen, sex workers and cabaret performers, a leading Thai politician launched a 24-hour campaign blitz Friday to mingle with voters on a variety of night shifts ahead of Dec. 23 elections.

"My goal is to campaign around the clock to meet people from all walks of life," Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said after starting his tour with a morning walk through Rayong, an industrial town south of the capital, Bangkok.

Abhisit is considered a front-runner in the race. His Democrats were the main opposition party under the 2001-2006 government of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was deposed by a coup last year.

After a day of shaking hands with the working class around Rayong, Abhisit said he would head to nearby Pattaya, a beach town known for its vibrant red-light district, to meet "the people who work at night" and those out enjoying their Friday evening.

One stop in Pattaya would be the Tiffany nightclub, a popular cabaret featuring transvestites and transsexuals, Sathit Wongnongthoey, a party executive, was quoted as saying by Thai newspapers.

Before midnight, Abhisit said he would return to the capital to shake hands with the taxi drivers and shop owners working in the lively tourist area around Bangkok's Khao San road.

At 3:30 a.m. Saturday, he was scheduled to give a live radio interview before meeting with security guards on overnight shifts and bus drivers before they board their vehicles at 4:30 a.m.

At 5:30 a.m., Abhisit said he would wander through Bangkok's Pak Klong morning market to meet traders before ending his day at 6:15 a.m. by giving alms to Buddhist monks.

Recent polls show that the Democrat Party is leading its main competition the People's Power Party, a new group comprised of Thaksin's allies. Neither party is expected to win an outright majority in next month's balloting.

Source: AP - 23 November 2007

[Jai Dee]

Polls report and expectation of 80 percent voter turn-outs from the South

Deputy Director of Research and Development of Had Yai University Assistant Professor Tassanee Pratan (ทัศนีย์ ประธาน) revealed that surveys done by the university of citizens in 14 Southern region provinces have discovered that up to 79.9 percent of southern residents intend to participate in the voting process.

The poll was conducted on 1,497 respondents and yielded results that almost 80 percent of them intended to engage in the voting process on December 23rd. The figure is 10 percent higher than the government target of 70 percent. 51 percent also believed that there would be no unusable ballots and that the election would go off without incident.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 28 November 2007

[Jai Dee]

EC affirms it has power to ban election polls

The Election Commission (EC) affirms it has a mandate to ban polls if it can prove that the polls are conducted in favour of a political party.

Regarding an election poll by the Police’s Special Branch claiming that the People Power Party gains more support than the Democrat, Election Commissioner Somchai Juengprasert (สมชัย จึงประเสริฐ) says EC can take action against polls that are deemed detrimental to the neutrality of the election. He adds that the Special Branch’s poll was conducted to benefit the authorities’ work.

The election commissioner says the poll might violate laws concerning impartiality of state officials during the general election.

Meanwhile, Election Commissioner Praphan Naikowit (ประพันธ์ นัยโกวิท) says EC has yet decided to investigate the Special Branch’s poll. However, he expresses his belief that a political party has manipulated the poll’s results. He affirms EC will investigate the poll once it receives official complaints.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 28 November 2007

[Ned]

There will be no election on Dec 23.

[sriracha john]

I guess we can close this thread then... Ned says there's no election.

[Jai Dee]

EC Secretary General assures a transparent and just election

Election Commission (EC) Secretary General Suthipol Taweechaikarn (สุทธิพล ทวีชัยการ) addressed a military gathering concerning ensuring a just election, adding that participants should place their faith in the EC. He stated that the EC will remain firm in its resolve to conduct a just and transparent election.

Mr. Suthipol affirmed that the EC would not interfere or be interfered by any parties whether they were political or the Council for National Security. He stated the EC will also provide unbiased assistance to all parties if their actions are conducive to the election.

The EC Secretary General also said that as many citizens have expressed confusion concerning the electoral process, the EC will step up its efforts to publicize the system.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 29 November 2007

[Jai Dee]

PRD Deputy Director instructs all radio stations to broadcast party policies

Public Relations Department Deputy Director Pachern Kumpoh (เผชิญ ขำโพธิ์) has instructed all radio stations operating under the Public Relations Department to allow political parties to broadcast their policies. The order has been established following Election Commission rulings that media providers must be in unbiased in their presentation of political parties.

All radio stations working under the order will receive the same signal when political parties present their policies. The stations under the order are in sectors 1-8 and they will receive their signals from 92.5 MHz on FM radio. The presentations will begin on November 28th and will continue until December 20th.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 29 November 2007

[Jai Dee]

Most believe economy will improve after election: UTCC

Most people believe the Thai economy will improve in the post-general election period, although they remain concerned over higher living costs due mainly to oil price hikes, according to a new survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

Thanawat Palavichai, director of UTTC's Economic and Business Forecasting Center, said the survey conducted on "The Public's Attitudes Towards the Election" with a random sample of 2,391 people nationwide during November 26-27 found 44.6 per cent will vote for candidates by taking into account

their political party's policies, 31.5 per cent according to party leaders, and 22.9 per cent in response to the qualification of the candidates themselves.

In other words, less than one in four voters plan to cast their ballot based on the candidate. Three out of four will vote according to the personality of someone else, that is, the party leader, and/or the policies of the party.

Asked about qualifications the new prime minister should have, less than half -- 43.9 per cent -- said he needed to be honest, 28.3 per cent viewed he should be decisive, and 16.3 per cent wanted him to have an understanding of the business sector.

The survey found 41.5 per cent believed the vote-seeking campaign on the eve of the election would help boost the economy, but 34.1 per cent were uncertain and 24.4 per cent viewed it would not have an effect on the economy.

In addition, 37.9 per cent believed the economy would be better after the election while 34.6 per cent viewed the economy would remain sluggish.

Dr. Thanawat said the survey indicated money circulated in the run-up to the election would not help bolster the people's economic condition and that the cost of living for the public due to surging oil prices had fuelled production prices and the cost of manufactured items and commodities to raise the cost of living.

Source: TNA - 30 November 2007

[Jai Dee]

Army Commander affirms readiness to uphold Southern elections

Army Commander-in-Chief General Anupong Paojinda (อนุพงษ์ เผ่าจินดา) revealed after meeting with defense officials in Songkhla province that all worries about the South concerning the safety of the upcoming election have been dispersed. The meeting was attended by army leaders from key sectors throughout the Southern region.

All sectors briefed the Army commander on their work plans and also on cooperation with civilians, police and the private sector, ensuring safety for the election. General Anupong stated that Had Yai city was of a concern as it is a business center; he reminded that the army would cooperate fully if assistance was needed.

General Anupong revealed that the Election Commission has asked that the Army lend a hand to tighten security in the three border provinces as it feels a successful election in the region will help to calm the situation.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 30 November 2007

[sriracha john]

The post-election numbers game

By Thitinan Pongsudhirak

With less than three weeks to go until voters enter polling booths on Dec 23, certain dynamics of Thailand's election outcome are discernible. Several key prospects can now be expected. First, no single political party is likely to win an outright majority. The new 2007 constitution is biased against the success of large political parties. As a result, a coalition government is in the offing. Second, a coalition that includes both the Democrat Party and the People Power Party (PPP) is not on the cards. Both parties have pledged to exclude the other in the event either leads the coalition government. Third, no coalition appears viable without either the Democrats or PPP. Both are poised to come out with the largest numbers of MPs. Fourth, a PPP-led coalition is unpalatable to the military and other political forces that overthrew former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and dissolved his once-invincible TRT Party on a plethora of corruption and fraud charges. By implication, the upshot will favour the Democrats to head the post-election coalition and its leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to become the new PM, all the more so since the Election Commission (EC) has ruled to prohibit campaigning by the 111 former executive members of TRT. A boon to the Democrats and Chart Thai Party, the EC's ruling was also a tactical disadvantage for other contending camps, which were forged by former TRT stalwarts. Among them, Puea Pandin Party may be the most aggrieved. Its momentum has slowed following the ruling. The two spanners in the works of this most probable scenario will be Chart Thai leader Banharn Silpa-archa's slick maneuvers to propel himself to the premiership with a mid-sized crop of MPs and the PPP's ongoing harassment, including the possibility of its dissolution for campaign infractions and election fraud. Banharn's way to the top would require shrewd over-leveraging. His Chart Thai is polling third, at best, behind the PPP and Democrats. If he chooses to join a Democrat-led government, the Chart Thai's parliamentary forces will be overwhelmed by the Democrats. Abhisit is unlikely to yield the premiership to Banharn. Chart Thai's quest to lead the coalition rests on backroom deal-making that would have to exclude the Democrats but include the PPP, whose leader Samak Sundaravej makes an unappealing premier candidate for his belligerence, polarisation, and a dual lack of TRT populist expertise and international credibility.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/03Dec2007_news13.php

The writer is director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

Edited December 3, 2007 by sriracha john

[quiksilva]

AN UNSETTLING PREMONITION

Police 'assessment' too close to the mark?

KAMOLWAT PRAPRUTITUM

The Special Branch has come under heavy criticism over the leaking of the contents of its ''assessment paper'' on electoral competitiveness, which rattled the nerves of those in the seat of power. The branch was unprepared for the slew of indignation heaped on it despite its explanation that the assessment was not an opinion survey.

But the focus of attention was not so much on how the information came to be declassified as to what the assessment could foretell.

The branch has defended itself with the explanation that its job includes evaluating the competitiveness factor on a regular basis, so that proper protection could be extended to the poll candidates.

Those unhappy with the leak are most upset with the agency's prediction the People Power party (PPP) will run away with 219 seats, against only half that number for the Democrat party.

There are 480 seats at stake in the general election.

As the Special Branch was being bombarded by hostile comments, it also occurred to a lot of people that the assessment may have given us a sneak preview of what is in store for the country after Dec 23.

Could this have been less of an issue if the prediction had not placed the PPP at the top of the popularity chart and miles ahead of the Democrats?

The branch's assessment has also reinforced a worrisome premonition for those currently occupying office _ that the pendulum of power may have once again swung back in favour of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, now operating under the facade of the PPP.

The accuracy of the assessment is also in question as the branch has found itself in the midst of accusations of inflating or even politicising the figures. Sources of the information were reportedly grassroots leaders and local administration officials believed to be receptive to the current sentiments of voters in their areas.

But according to insiders, some respectable pollsters have finished tallying up their questionnaires and their findings more or less mirror the forecast of a comfortable win for the PPP.

The surveys, however, were being kept under wraps at the urging of high-level government insiders who do not want to see opinion polls favourable to the PPP released too close to one another.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/03Dec2007_news03.php

[chanchao]

The new 2007 constitution is biased against the success of large political parties.

Ah.. I see. Can't have a big majority actually win a big majority now can we.

Good article quoted by Quicksilva though.

[Abrak]

Having read that Bangkok Post article the numbers dont really add up.

PPP 219, Democrats 120, Chart Thai 30, Others 30.

You are still about 80 short of parliament. Unless other people think Chart Thai or others are going to get a lot more seats.

[John K]

I would not put much faith in the poll done by the police, they are not politically neutral and they can be a bit intimidating.

[chanchao]

LOL.. Well.. show me a Thai newspaper article with numbers that do add up.

Anyway, I'm torn.. On the one hand I want PPP to win big and give everyone else the finger. On the other hand, with the most recent and most capable TRT leadership banned after the military power-grab, this leaves just the corrupt dinosaurs, I mean even Chalerm for christsakes..

So.. No choice.

Which was the intention of the coup anyway.

[sriracha john]

Having read that Bangkok Post article the numbers dont really add up.

PPP 219, Democrats 120, Chart Thai 30, Others 30.

You are still about 80 short of parliament. Unless other people think Chart Thai or others are going to get a lot more seats.

Which article, with those numbers, are you referring to?

There's 80 more party-list MP's, in addition to the 400 constituency MP's.

[John K]

No situation is perfect, but doing a step back at this point is madness. At this point I think the best case scenario is new young faces who are smart enough to hire proper consultants and listen to them.

[bulmercke]

Having read that Bangkok Post article the numbers dont really add up.

PPP 219, Democrats 120, Chart Thai 30, Others 30.

You are still about 80 short of parliament. Unless other people think Chart Thai or others are going to get a lot more seats.

The House of Representatives i.e. Thailand's parliament has 500 members, 400 of whom are directly elected from electoral constituencies, with the remainder drawn proportionally from party lists.

One way or another - it looks more and more likely that PPP will be the main party forming the next government! And then what follows is anyone's guess.

[Tony Clifton]

Don't forget that PPP still have 20 days or so to commit offenses, a known habit of theirs, like Oprah and a glazed ham.

[John K]

One can only imagine how much money is changing hands here. As compared to the other elections where the TRT swamped everyone with advertizements (may be related to Thaksin controlling the TV or new rules) this one seems less in your face. Also the EC was expected to announce it’s ruling on the vote buying by yesterday. I think the playing field is ready to have some significant changes. I think that may be put off now until Thursday because of today’s celebrations for HRH..

[hammered]

Basically whether we like it or not, failing a sudden complete change of fortunes, PPP is going to get the most seats. Whether that number is over the 241 or close enough to it to be able to lead the next governmnet remains in doubt although personally I would guess they can come in with 200 seats and grab allies to govern. The reasonm thwey will do so well is a combination of things. Yes there is support for Thaksin upcountry although not enough on its own to bring them anywhere near power. Then there is the fact that they are stuffed full of the warlords and feudal masters that control so many up country constituenices through their patronage and mafias networks. Then of course the vote buying gives a litle cream although nowhere near as effective as the sitting MP transfer stuff. Having said all this they are still going to come out of the elction as number one and unless anyone can actually get some irrefutable proof of shenanigans will be seen as legitinate winners both inside and outside the country.

The Dems cannot compete with the PPP for a number of reasons. First they have previosuly done little to help certain segments of society. Second they dont indulge in the transfer stuff which really hamstrings them.

What is this going to mean? Unless the Dems and a bunch of smaller parties pull a Ukraine and announce a coalition to exclude the largest party, PPP (meaning we know who) and the soldiers have to do some deal for stability anything else will just result in more chaos and infighting. Will we get to see a calmer period where it becomes clear a deal has been struck or will we see more chaos with more coups, party disolutions, revenge on the junta is something we should all be concerned about. There will not be winners and losers if the situation deteriorates further.

[Tony Clifton]

Win, the PPP will cause chaos.

Lose, the PPP will cause chaos.

[Ricardo]

LOL.. Well.. show me a Thai newspaper article with numbers that do add up.

Anyway, I'm torn.. On the one hand I want PPP to win big and give everyone else the finger. On the other hand, with the most recent and most capable TRT leadership banned after the military power-grab, this leaves just the corrupt dinosaurs, I mean even Chalerm for christsakes..

So.. No choice.

Which was the intention of the coup anyway.

I think you'll find that the idea came from Thaksin & Thais-Love-Thaksin, when they were 'arranging' the previous 'election', which was daft because they would already have won it comfortably, and honestly. But they just couldn't resist cheating. Som nam na Thaksin/TRT.

[sriracha john]

3 Chiang Mai candidates to receive red cards

CHIANG MAI -- Election Commission (EC) officials in Chiang Mai were preparing to issue red cards to three election candidates contesting the December 23 general election, after receiving evidence indicating the candidates had given money to eligible voters in exchange for their votes.

Pongpan Riewthongthawee, Chiang Mai director of the EC, said his officials had received solid evidence the three candidates had launched campaigns and handed out money to eligible voters in their constituencies. If the red cards were issued to the trio, they would be barred from contesting the upcoming election.

EC officials were also closely monitoring several municipal officials in Chiang Mai on the basis they were not acting neutral for the election, as they had organized election platforms for candidates of certain political parties, said Mr. Pongpan.

- MCOT

[Tony Clifton]

Wasn't Thaksin's niece running in Chiang Mai?

[Jai Dee]

EC says advanced voter turnout over 80%

Election Commission (EC) Secretary-General Suthipol Taweechaikarn (สุทธิพล ทวีชัยการ) revealed the results of advanced voting throughout the country with over 80 percent voter turn out. Advanced voting took place over a two day period for citizens who were not able to return to their residences to vote.

The EC Secretary General said that voter turn outs for registered advanced voters was very satisfactory exceeding the government target of 70 percent by more than 10 percent. He commented that it was a good indicator of citizens’ concern for their rights and political awareness

Mr. Suthipol admitted that there were minor problems with the voting with some voters saying that they found it difficult to read ballots. The EC has contacted printers to remedy the issue for the upcoming election. Mr. Suthipol also said that according to figures, he can be confident that the general election will see a voter turn out rate higher than 70 percent.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 17 December 2007

[Jai Dee]

PM’s Office Minister says main obstacle to voting process is uncooperative voters

Minister attached to the Prime Minister Office Assistant Professor Doctor Theerapat Serirangsan (ดร.ธีระภัทร์ เสรีรังสรรค์) recently presided over the opening ceremony for the “Clean voting by joining hands to build Democracy” project, which took placed in Chiang Mai. During the ceremony Assistant Professor Doctor Theerapat spoke on the upcoming general election.

The minister’s speech detailed that the greatest threat to the election was from citizens would did not give it any concern. He also said that citizens not cooperating with authorities during the election, as well as not being able to decide on a choice could be detrimental to the election.

Assistant Professor Doctor Theerapat reiterated that the election was an important step towards democracy which citizens should pay attention to. He said that it was the duty of all citizens to make informed votes without the influence of vote buyers. He asked that all citizens cooperate with authorities and devote effort to building democracy in the nation.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 17 December 2007

[Jai Dee]

EC affirms advanced votes have been recorded

The Election Commission (EC) affirmed that conclusions for all advanced voting occurred without incident. Ballots from across the nation were collected and accounted for.

The EC said that all ballots had been divided into advanced votes for voters outside their residences and advanced votes from voters within their residences’ which wished to vote ahead of the upcoming election. The out of residence ballots have been transported and stored by the Thai Postal Service while in residence votes are being handled by the police. A portion of the votes will also remain in the voting center located in Laksi.

24 hour surveillance and security has been organized for all ballot collections. The EC assures that the ballots will not be tampered with.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 17 December 2007

[Jai Dee]

DPM Sonthi will not interfere with work of EC

The Deputy Prime Minister overseeing national security and chairman of the committee to combat vote-buying, Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin (สนธิ บุญยรัตกลิน), says he will not intervene in the Election Commission (EC)’s work.

On his meeting with the EC last Friday (December 14th), Gen. Sonthi says he has to coordinate with the EC, as he is responsible in suppressing vote-buying. Besides, he is worried about the threats frequently issued to the EC. However, he says he has not been informed of which side posed such threats.

Concerning the people’s criticisms against dictatorship during the early election last weekend, Gen. Sonthi says public members have the right to criticize or condemn against dictatorship, as it is their opinions. However, he says he did not take notice of them.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 17 December 2007