General Election Confirmed To Be Held On December 23, 2007

[John K]

Obviously, the PPP will win the popular vote. They will be thwarted by a coalition of losing parties sympathetic to the military who will form the next govt.

Popular purchased vote that is. If there was no vote buying and the election was 100% clean I think at most they may get 10% at best.

[hammered]

So PAD has made it clear they are going to do a dummy spit and go back on the streets trying to stir up trouble and incite another military coup if the PPP win and democracy prevails, even for a short time. Even at its peak in 2006 PAD only managed to rally a small fraction of 1% of total voters to go onto the streets and call for the overthrow of the government. But since the power-base of the PAD is in Bangkok, even such a minute fraction of voters massed in one place can make a very big showing.

The current military dictatorship has done everything in its power to stack the odds against the PPP. They are quite obviously very concerned that genuine free and fair elections would result in democratic representation of the majority of people in the country, who just happen to be the poor peasant class rather than the corrupt elite who have held the peasants down for so long.

OK, here's my predictions;--

If the PPP wins enough votes to govern outright the PAD will go onto the streets to try and create political chaos. The military will then use the situation as an excuse for another coup. This is despite the fact that at best, PAD might be able to rally less than 0.3% of total voters to put on a big show in Bangkok. That's about 100,000 people BTW. Sounds a lot when you put them all in one place for the news cameras, but pales into insignificance when compared with the actual number of voters out there in the countryside. Hardly a democratic representation of overall voter sentiment, but makes a big show on the TV news.

If the PPP wins enough votes to govern only as a coalition government, I think they will have enough sense to stand aside and let the Democrats take over the mess in a coalition government that will eventually self destruct. The "appointed" half senate that the military managed to slip through in the referendum is just another power grab by the elite designed to run interference with a democratically elected government when it is not of their liking.

Either way its a win/win situation for the military dictators and the elite ruling class who endorse them. All they have to do is sit back and wait for the democratic process to fall apart. Then they walk in and seize power again, tightening their grip over the poor peasant class majority even further.

I think we are in for several more years (if not decades) of military interference in democracy in Thailand.

Thailand At The Brink

Daniel Ten Kate - ASIA SENTINEL

20 December 2007

The first election since the 2006 coup may bring a managed democracy, or more chaos

On Sunday, Thailand will hold its first parliamentary elections since the September 2006 coup that ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ushering in a new period of managed democracy and potentially triggering more instability.

“You can already see evidence that the election will be another episode in the ongoing struggle between the two major versions of Thailand: The old version of the establishment and Thaksin’s new, emerging, globalized version,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, head of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “We need to bridge that gap but that has not taken place because the coup group refused to implement any of Thaksin’s policies.”

Thailand remains very divided as people prepare to vote on December 23. Although the military junta has spent 15 months demonizing Thaksin, the exiled premier has maintained a high profile overseas and still remains popular in the country’s poor northeast region, where loyalists in the People Power Party (PPP) — a hybrid version of his banned Thai Rak Thai party — look set to win big.

Thaksin remains a major force in other ways. All the parties have adopted many of his populist measures in some form, revealing just how much TRT changed the political landscape in its five years in power. While some political parties think the election will bring stability, others warn that more discord is likely if the royalist coup group seeks to undermine a strong PPP showing.

“It’s shaping up that a new form of volatility is coming,” Thitinan said.

To the disdain of election officials, the PPP has invoked Thaksin throughout the campaign. Samak Sundaravej, the brash right-winger recruited by Thaksin to lead the party, has said PPP plans to dissolve the military-led investigation into the former premier’s financial dealings and lift the five-year political ban on him and 110 other TRT executives.

The Election Commission has fought back, issuing a serious of “guidelines” in November that said banned TRT members could not make campaign speeches or have their photographs used in campaign material — a decision that even main opposition Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva called a violation of their constitutional rights. Still, the commission plans to bring legal action against at least one PPP member for using Thaksin’s photo on the campaign trail. It also made a controversial decision to drop PPP’s case against junta leaders after documents surfaced revealing a military plan to undermine the party at the polls.

“The argument the commission offered for the ruling on the documents how should I put this was a little bit unclear,” said Gotham Arya, a former election commissioner. “They were sympathizers of the coup. From those documents we can assume the military still has a plan to influence the election,” he said.

Although the PPP appears to set to win the most votes, it remains to be seen if they can form a government. The party hopes to secure 240 seats, enough to guarantee that it can lead the government, said Noppadol Pattama, the party’s deputy secretary-general and Thaksin’s lawyer. Although that is unlikely, he vowed that a PPP-led government would not take revenge on the coup group.

“The military has to play by the rules and must respect and abide by the will of the people,” he said. “Some of the generals might be unhappy about a PPP victory, but we will not do anything to retaliate or take revenge on the junta. We will go ahead working for the people and solving economic problems and getting the country back on track.”

The Democrats, the main opposition party and the only one that has ruled out forming a government with the PPP, say Thaksin is pumping large amounts of money into the campaign and the Election Commission has failed to clamp down on vote buying.

”Every man and his dog knows money is being used in enormous amounts, but yet there has been no action taken by commission on this issue,” said Korn Chatikavanij, deputy secretary-general of the Democrats.

Although traditionally known as a party that opposes military rule, the Democrats this year have come under fire for appearing to accommodate the coup group. Korn rejected those assertions, and said the fact that the military leaders knew they must hold an election within a set timeframe or face protests is a “positive reflection” on the state of Thai democracy.

“Everyone had faith that nobody would have the power to renege on the public promises made by military at the time,” he said. “Too many people, journalists and commentators, demanded that the Thai people and the Democrat party be more forceful against the military, but we've shown the world that the Thai way of solving problems, avoiding confrontation, often yields the best results.”

Polls suggest the Democrats will finish second, but that won’t stop the party from attempting to form a coalition government with smaller parties. As a show of faith in its alliance with Banharn Silpa-Archa, the slippery survivor who leads the regional Chat Thai party and who many suspect will try to worm his way into the premiership, the Democrats decided not to field candidates in constituencies contested by Chat Thai.

Korn also said that the tradition in which the party that wins the most votes gets first shot to form the government is irrelevant.

“At the end of the day, the parliamentary system gives the legitimate right to the majority of MPs to form a government and select a prime minister,” he said. “It doesn't matter from how many parties the MPs come from. If all the other parties find it unpalatable to be in bed with the PPP, then it is a decision for them to make.”

With so much at stake for both Thaksin and the coupmakers, the horse-trading after the election will be intense. Although the Democrats will fight to form the government, PPP is confident that it can convince other parties to come aboard if it wins the most votes.

“When everyone learns the results of the election, parties will urgently contact the leading party as they don't want to be left behind and miss the train,” Noppadol said. “This is the nature of Thai politics, and I don’t see why it would change this time.”

Since no party is likely to win an outright majority, the middle parties hold the key to victory. Chat Thai has vowed to stick with the Democrats but most analysts believe the malleable Banharn can be easily persuaded to switch sides with the right offer.

The other intriguing party is Pua Paendin, a new party formed by ex-Thaksin ally Surakiart Sathirathai. The party has reportedly received an influx of funds from the military and behind-the-scenes support from Prem Tinsulanonda, the highly influential former prime minister who heads the king’s Privy Council. The party has steadily risen in pre-election polls, but may be fragmented, giving Thaksin a possible opening to woo some Pua Paendin MPs to vote for the candidate the exiled premier wants in power.

“The Surakiart faction cannot work with Thaksin at all, but another faction in Pua Paendin has no loyalty to Prem and just wants to win,” said a former Thaksin aide, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Thaksin himself is unlikely to come back for another two or three years, so he can sit back from the outside with the remote control and choose either Banharn or [Pua Paendin leader] Suvit [Khunkitti] to act as a nominee. MPs don’t have to vote along party lines, so that gives Thaksin more options. It’s easier for Thaksin to buy MPs than it was to buy votes.”

PPP rejects allegations that it buys votes or MPs. Thaksin, who will monitor the election from Hong Kong because he is going there for business, “will return to Thailand with dignity sometime after the election and after considering his safety,” Noppadol said.

As the focus shifts to the election, many analysts are watching to see if the military-appointed legislature will try to pass a draconian Internal Security Act just before the election. The National Legislative Assembly has continued to pass laws during the campaign season despite protests from many civil society groups who claim its mandate has expired.

“Even in a diluted form, the Internal Security Act would give the military immense power,” Thitinan said. “The army wouldn’t need another coup. They may see it as an insurance policy against a PPP victory.”

No matter what, PPP’s resurgence has thwarted the military’s plan for a smooth transition to a political system it can easily manipulate.

In there is the explanation of how the PPP was formed and what may well happen after the vote. This is nothingto do with democracy. A choice betwen a military overseen democracy or a democracy led by a group of authoritarian socail conservatives (Thaksinistas) with liberal economic poliies is not exactly a choice of anything except for shades of right wing control

Respectfully Hammered, the rights of citizens to elect authoritarian governments is every bit as democratic as their right to elect any other kind of government. Providing that government sticks to the laws of the land- constitutional, civil and criminal.

If a coalition government - not including the PPP- is formed, I suspect there will be some supporters of that coalition who, watching the messy political chaos- shifting loyalties and horsetrading- will complain that the new PM doesn't have enough control- the balls to exert his control- that he is not sufficiently authoritarian.

As far as social conservatives go- in every western country they consitute a very important consituency that all parties are cognizant of- but in none that I know of would suggest that a government elected by them would be a breech of democractic principles. (For the record- I don't see the PPP as being social conservatives- a term normally used to apply to people who want to roll back the clock on the social mores in society). I think some of the legislature proposed- and not followed through- by the NLA - which, in keeping with forum rules i won't identify- would provide a much better example of social conservatism.

The social crusadesand minister of culture etc were all introduced by TRT and indeed expanded on by the military. This is why I describe the PPP as social conservatives, as they moved a long way from a previous more liberal consensus under Chuan/Banharn/Chavalit/Chatchai. In Thailand there are no social liberal or radical parties of note, which imho is a diservice to the people. I believe only the laughable Matchima party of Prachai talked about a real welfare state as opposed to uncosted populist polices.

Oh there is a small Thai socialist party running in this election but nobody will have heard of them. Interesting according to them of the main parties only the Dems have an ideology (economic liberal/soft conservative) all the other parties are identitfed as being only fronts for people or groups to control their intersts and are comopletely dereft of any ideology.

Of course people are fre to vote for who they wanted. I personally decry ther complete lack of choice the top down system of their betters offers them.

[george]

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