Bangkok Condo Price Trends

[bingobongo]

well some #s are out, and the trend is down.......compare the 2 charts (i love pretty colors)....the first chart on the top is from my post on June 17, 2007 and now look at the most current chart as of Oct 9, 2007...........enjoy...why buy today when you can buy cheaper tomorrow

one MORE time......when SUPPLY IS GREATER THAN DEMAND, PRICES GO DOWN...........so flame away all you donald trump wannabes.......

DATA as of June 17, 2007

DATA as of October 10, 2007

Edited October 9, 2007 by bingobongo

[coldcrush]

Show me where the cheap ones are? When I looked the prices were quite high....the decrease should surely sow in the prices by now?

[fxm88]

Show me where the cheap ones are? When I looked the prices were quite high....the decrease should surely sow in the prices by now?

Those are the average prices the units actually sold for, not the average of the prices offered to prospective buyers. Since you were looking, and not buying, I am not surprised the prices you were quoted were high.

[donx]

well some #s are out, and the trend is down.......compare the 2 charts (i love pretty colors)....the first chart on the top is from my post on June 17, 2007 and now look at the most current chart as of Oct 9, 2007...........enjoy...why buy today when you can buy cheaper tomorrow

one MORE time......when SUPPLY IS GREATER THAN DEMAND, PRICES GO DOWN...........so flame away all you donald trump wannabes.......

Now show us the chart of the total number of units sold each year. Were more units sold in 2007 than in previous years or are the total number of units sold also down? I'd be very interested in knowing.

[quiksilva]

Doh! How many times do I have to repeat that values are not the same as prices.

The average price of BMR Housing units launched has come down, big deal.

It is NOT the same thing as Values collapsing.

What Area's graphs show is that developers today are targeting lower income market segments, nothing more than that.

Oh and these projects are selling rather well too.

[pkrv]

Doh! How many times do I have to repeat that values are not the same as prices.

The average price of BMR Housing units launched has come down, big deal.

It is NOT the same thing as Values collapsing.

What Area's graphs show is that developers today are targeting lower income market segments, nothing more than that.

Oh and these projects are selling rather well too.

I couldn't agree more values collapsing - dream on.

[kaxper]

i think it is a reflection of smaller unit sizes rather than falling prices ...

[Livinginexile]

well some #s are out, and the trend is down.......compare the 2 charts (i love pretty colors)....the first chart on the top is from my post on June 17, 2007 and now look at the most current chart as of Oct 9, 2007...........enjoy...why buy today when you can buy cheaper tomorrow

Stiff cheese Bingo?...why are you still quoting AVERAGE condo prices?

High end condo's in prime locations are booming.

If one waits (as you suggest) then one will only pay higher later.

Trying to ramp down the market is not going to work Bingo.

Except it...you missed the boat mate.

[trajan]

as I understand from Raimond Land's recent study, the average size of condo units launched are decreasing, BUT the average per-sq-meter price is rising....

this is for central zones of the metropolitan area (riverside, CBD, Phayathai, Sukhumvit, Silom/Sathorn etc.)

also, the number of projects launched in outer areas (which are smaller in sq. meters and start from a lower per sq. meter price) are increasing percentage-wise when compared to inner (more expensive) zones.....

this trend may help explain why average unit prices are decreasing, but if you look at per sq. meter prices, they are rising across the board (low end to high end..., inner zone to outer zone)....

if you are waiting for prices (on a per sq meter basis) to generally fall in good areas (and desirable units) for the near future, you've probably missed the boat....

[pkrv]

as I understand from Raimond Land's recent study, the average size of condo units launched are decreasing, BUT the average per-sq-meter price is rising....

this is for central zones of the metropolitan area (riverside, CBD, Phayathai, Sukhumvit, Silom/Sathorn etc.)

also, the number of projects launched in outer areas (which are smaller in sq. meters and start from a lower per sq. meter price) are increasing percentage-wise when compared to inner (more expensive) zones.....

this trend may help explain why average unit prices are decreasing, but if you look at per sq. meter prices, they are rising across the board (low end to high end..., inner zone to outer zone)....

if you are waiting for prices (on a per sq meter basis) to generally fall in good areas (and desirable units) for the near future, you've probably missed the boat....

This I think is indicative of a booming market. I remember a 'flat' going for sale on Park Lane in London. Admittedly it was cheap something like 40k GBP but literally was the size of a broom cupboard! it must have been sold for the address value alone.

It makes sense if the product size shrinks to fit the purse.

[fletchsmile]

well some #s are out, and the trend is down.......compare the 2 charts (i love pretty colors)....the first chart on the top is from my post on June 17, 2007 and now look at the most current chart as of Oct 9, 2007...........enjoy...why buy today when you can buy cheaper tomorrow

Sorry my chart isn't as colourful as yours, but I think you've also been saying the same about stockmarkets all year, if I recall...

Where's the best place for me to buy a condo, sorry I mean sell a condo in Bongo terms at the moment... and I'll check out the purchase, sorry I mean sale, tomorrow..

Other TV members were delighted with your sell and global bust post in mid-August...they all bought too...You're a star

Keep the tips coming please.

Edited October 10, 2007 by fletchthai68

[palm]

as I understand from Raimond Land's recent study, the average size of condo units launched are decreasing, BUT the average per-sq-meter price is rising....

Correct.

[thaigene2]

as I understand from Raimond Land's recent study, the average size of condo units launched are decreasing, BUT the average per-sq-meter price is rising....

this is for central zones of the metropolitan area (riverside, CBD, Phayathai, Sukhumvit, Silom/Sathorn etc.)

also, the number of projects launched in outer areas (which are smaller in sq. meters and start from a lower per sq. meter price) are increasing percentage-wise when compared to inner (more expensive) zones.....

this trend may help explain why average unit prices are decreasing, but if you look at per sq. meter prices, they are rising across the board (low end to high end..., inner zone to outer zone)....

if you are waiting for prices (on a per sq meter basis) to generally fall in good areas (and desirable units) for the near future, you've probably missed the boat....

Trajan - Maybe at the high end. But not at the Lower A or Upper Grade B end in good central areas - even lower to mid Sukhumvit - the price now is around 55,000 psm. True, the upper end is still 'asking' 80,000+ but are they getting it?

And these guys building these 40 story 200,000 baht psm places (is it Raimon Land?) along the river ??

[thaigene2]

as I understand from Raimond Land's recent study, the average size of condo units launched are decreasing, BUT the average per-sq-meter price is rising....

Correct.

Are those the infamous 'palm' sisters?

[misterme]

I just think the low end of the market sold this quarter.

Where I bought, they sold 200 units. Mine for 1.6M and 2.1M. They aren't a 1/3 as nice as the 6M units down the street, but they all did sell.

Just means that a lot of us cheepies got in. :-D

[pkrv]

as I understand from Raimond Land's recent study, the average size of condo units launched are decreasing, BUT the average per-sq-meter price is rising....

this is for central zones of the metropolitan area (riverside, CBD, Phayathai, Sukhumvit, Silom/Sathorn etc.)

also, the number of projects launched in outer areas (which are smaller in sq. meters and start from a lower per sq. meter price) are increasing percentage-wise when compared to inner (more expensive) zones.....

this trend may help explain why average unit prices are decreasing, but if you look at per sq. meter prices, they are rising across the board (low end to high end..., inner zone to outer zone)....

if you are waiting for prices (on a per sq meter basis) to generally fall in good areas (and desirable units) for the near future, you've probably missed the boat....

Trajan - Maybe at the high end. But not at the Lower A or Upper Grade B end in good central areas - even lower to mid Sukhumvit - the price now is around 55,000 psm. True, the upper end is still 'asking' 80,000+ but are they getting it?

And these guys building these 40 story 200,000 baht psm places (is it Raimon Land?) along the river ??

Sorry thaigene2 but it was 100k (thb) psm almost three years ago (god that raised some eyebrows) it is now more like 150/200k (thb) psm, not only did they get this price but all has virtually sold out! - This is what I see at core developments.

[FarangNoi21]

as I understand from Raimond Land's recent study, the average size of condo units launched are decreasing, BUT the average per-sq-meter price is rising....

Correct.

OP = decimated

[JonnieB]

the great world-wide real estate bubble of the past 5 years has been unwinding over the past year now and will continue to accelerate. prices in uk/usa have been trending down with many markets down 20-30%. prime commercial and residential properities will hold their value but seocndary markets will feel the heat of large declines. prices in a secondary market like Bangkok may drop 30-40% when it's all said and done. from there, the cycle will start again. such trends really only effect speculators and shouldn't concern long term residents.

[teejay]

the great world-wide real estate bubble of the past 5 years has been unwinding over the past year now and will continue to accelerate. prices in uk/usa have been trending down with many markets down 20-30%. prime commercial and residential properities will hold their value but seocndary markets will feel the heat of large declines. prices in a secondary market like Bangkok may drop 30-40% when it's all said and done. from there, the cycle will start again. such trends really only effect speculators and shouldn't concern long term residents.

"Great world-wide bubble"?" Hong Kong? No decline whatsoever over the past 5 years... currently making money hand over fist. Just because ignorant people get schemed into something ridiculous like an interest-only mortgage doesn't mean that informed (read: smart) investors aren't making money left, right, and center.

[thaigene2]

as I understand from Raimond Land's recent study, the average size of condo units launched are decreasing, BUT the average per-sq-meter price is rising....

this is for central zones of the metropolitan area (riverside, CBD, Phayathai, Sukhumvit, Silom/Sathorn etc.)

also, the number of projects launched in outer areas (which are smaller in sq. meters and start from a lower per sq. meter price) are increasing percentage-wise when compared to inner (more expensive) zones.....

this trend may help explain why average unit prices are decreasing, but if you look at per sq. meter prices, they are rising across the board (low end to high end..., inner zone to outer zone)....

if you are waiting for prices (on a per sq meter basis) to generally fall in good areas (and desirable units) for the near future, you've probably missed the boat....

Trajan - Maybe at the high end. But not at the Lower A or Upper Grade B end in good central areas - even lower to mid Sukhumvit - the price now is around 55,000 psm. True, the upper end is still 'asking' 80,000+ but are they getting it?

And these guys building these 40 story 200,000 baht psm places (is it Raimon Land?) along the river ??

Sorry thaigene2 but it was 100k (thb) psm almost three years ago (god that raised some eyebrows) it is now more like 150/200k (thb) psm, not only did they get this price but all has virtually sold out! - This is what I see at core developments.

Well we'll see. Good news for you I think PKRV, as you must be about ready to take possession by now? But look at what's happened to some of the other recnetly completed inner city A and Upper-B grade places. They were bought primarily by Thais who reckoned they could rent/let them to others. According to my Thai friends - who were among the speculators by the way - two of three I asked said their 'business plan' was to rent to 'farang' (though I think they also meant Japanese - as that's a bigger market).

Now we are seeing downward pressure on rents due to surge in rental supply. Some are saying up to 25% drop in prices(though that sounds a bit much to me). But anyway, if you are financed in the condo purchase and the interest rates start to climb, but your 'planned' rental rate drops..then what? If you're not financed maybe it's no big deal.

What does that mean to a farang BUYER? Well you better hope there aren't too many of the people I mentioned above as owners in your building! You'd be luccky to have water in the pool within six months..as the maintenace payments from these guys start to dry up!

Question: When someone buys a new condo, does the developer ever reveal how many have actually COMPLETED the purchase - e.g. made the final payment via the bank or via cash (as opposed to just saying it's 'sold out' because someone laid down the deposit and made a few monthly payments)? Would you know that even at the land registry upon exchange?

[trajan]

Trajan - Maybe at the high end. But not at the Lower A or Upper Grade B end in good central areas - even lower to mid Sukhumvit - the price now is around 55,000 psm. True, the upper end is still 'asking' 80,000+ but are they getting it?

And these guys building these 40 story 200,000 baht psm places (is it Raimon Land?) along the river ??

upper end for 80K psm meter? really? could you direct me to those?

[PadThaiGuy]

The Baht is too strong and there is an oversupply in the market. Some projects are going bust right now.

Restrictions on foreigners, a less friendly atmosphere, a screwy Govt., and a general consenses is the Thai economy is headed for the toilet.

I predict a major correction within a year.

A buyers market.

[thaigene2]

Trajan - Maybe at the high end. But not at the Lower A or Upper Grade B end in good central areas - even lower to mid Sukhumvit - the price now is around 55,000 psm. True, the upper end is still 'asking' 80,000+ but are they getting it?

And these guys building these 40 story 200,000 baht psm places (is it Raimon Land?) along the river ??

upper end for 80K psm meter? really? could you direct me to those?

Many are less than 80,000 actually. Note I said 'upper end' not the highest end..

+Master Centrium, Suk 19-21, 75,000 bsm - completion in December (a speculator off-loading - flipping)

+Nusasiri Grand, Suk 42 connected to BTS walkway, 68,000 bsm

+Sukhumvit City Resort, Suk 11, 73,000 bsm

+The Lake, Suk 16, 86,000 bsm

+Ideal 24, Suk 24, (exp completion early 08) 90,000 bsm

+Watermark, Charoennakorn Road with river view, 84,000

SOURCE: "Bangkok Condo" October-November 2007 (it was a suplement in the Bangkok Post about a week ago - sponsored by Harrison Real Estate).

[quiksilva]

the great world-wide real estate bubble of the past 5 years has been unwinding over the past year now and will continue to accelerate. prices in uk/usa have been trending down with many markets down 20-30%. prime commercial and residential properities will hold their value but seocndary markets will feel the heat of large declines. prices in a secondary market like Bangkok may drop 30-40% when it's all said and done. from there, the cycle will start again. such trends really only effect speculators and shouldn't concern long term residents.

You made some good points but wildly missed the mark on many.

Sure UK/USA housing woes will continue to grow and we could well see a correction in some of their markets. Even if that does drop by 20%, the fallout effect from that to Thailand however will be minimal. (Edit although I still have my doubts about the UK "bubble" the population there has grown by over 1 million in recent years and all those new people need somewhere to live)

You say prime commercial properties will hold their value. First what does this have to do with the price of eggs? They are totally unrelated. Also which commercial market are you talking about?

In fact, I believe that Bangkok's commercial market has already begun to reach its peak here in Bangkok and currently believe that we may very well see office rents drop over the coming 2-3 years, and the kicker is that may still happen even if the economy recovers after the election, but that is a topic for a new thread.

A 30-40% drop in Bangkok residential values? By this saying this you are insinuating that we are headed for another crisis on the same magnitude of 1997 (during which residential values actually held firm, and some places even experienced improved occupancy rates).

What I believe is happening here is the phenomenon of the weight of money, there will be downward pressure on yields, bringing residential yields in Bangkok into closer alignment with markets like HK & SG.

Instead of values dropping I personally think that you are much more likely to see yields drop from 6-8% to something like 3-5%

If the economy can recover there will be tenants, but they will have a lot of options to choose from. Could that cause some problems with the collection of maintenance fees of some owner? Sure. But I doubt that you will even notice.

After having been a property manager myself during the last crisis, 1997-1999, I can honestly say that even though we could not collect all CAM fee payments, we were still able to fund repairs, improvements and even adding new playgrounds etc.

Oh and if the Baht being so strong is causing problems, please explain why it is that exports continue to grow and major firms like Ford and Mazda for example have just committed 500 million US$ to Thailand?

Edited October 12, 2007 by quiksilva

[backflip]

"i love pretty colors"

And things that sparkle.

[Casuarina]

Prime Area Property will always be able to maintain their property value.

If you are looking for cheap property, why not go to Bank Auction Property? From there, you rarely see those Prime Area Property. Those property will be taken off the list by savvy banker.

Generally, any Government will not allow Property Price to drop drastically. The whole economy may collapse as most property are held as collateral by lending bank. If borrower default, can Bank afford the hit if the collateral is now worth much lesser than before.

Buying cheaper tomorrow will only apply to those less popular property (due to whatsoever reason) of which we may not even be interested. Unless there is an economy collapse.

Edited October 12, 2007 by Casuarina

[pkrv]

Hi thaigene2 "Good news for you I think PKRV, as you must be about ready to take possession by now? ", I have come to the conclusion to try and relax and factor in my own estimates, will be in Bangkok last two weeks in both November and December still awaiting the 2 week notification, there is nothing wrong it just seems to be like that

I think a lot of the confusion here is that we are all in very different positions because we come from different countries some are local some are not.

If you are US based I am afraid that the USDTHB= is not so hot at the moment - none the less there will be a large number of retirees whose main asset is their house looking to secure their future. If they are compelled to think outside of the box due to financial pressure Thailand is a good bet. (More bang for your buck etc). Pensions may or may not be there....

UK well THBGBP= 69/70 at the moment not bad, all the same reasons apply but perhaps the culture is a little more risk adverse? If you can buy using spare capitol (Not quite my position but almost) it's a good deal.

AUS/NZ may reflect the UK perspective?

HK - I note one or two posters expressing investment interest

Japan - Unknown to me I don't know of any posters

China ?

Arab countries - expressing considerable interest, in many instances they may put this type of purchase on credit card!

Thailand - The biggest market, these guys seem intent on owning their own property for long term prosperity - I don't think they worry too much about short term fluctuations.

This is all generalised but sifting through the treads, there are big differences, some people simply wished to exit the rat race (as early as possible who can blame them?) but may find Thailand is leaving them behind (in commercial terms)?

It’s a big step to make buying in Thailand I personally would ensure that (over the long term 40+ years) I had sufficient funds available to support the high level of lifestyle (at low cost) Bangkok can provide.

[DaffyDuck]

why buy today when you can buy cheaper tomorrow

Easy - Why buy when everyone else will be buying, when you can buy when no one (or, very few) are buying?

It's a sliding scale, of how much less will a given property be if you wait long enough, but how many other buyers will you be competing with at that point?

Furthermore, if you are bringing your money from the US, you have the additional handicap that the US value is dropping by around 20% every year, so if you wait a year (unless you store your money in a foreign bank account), you may pay less for the property, but your money can be worth up to 15%-20% less, nullifying any 'savings'... and you'll still be competing with more buyers for the same property.

So, yes, if you wait a year, numerically you may pay less, but value and worth are the results of many more variables.

The sweet spot to buy property would have been 4 years ago, IMO.

[pkrv]

+The Lake, Suk 16, 86,000 bsm

I just noticed you quoted The Lake (The Lakes)

http://www.thelakesbangkok.com/

That project completed back in 2005, I did consider it. From what I can reall the price does not appear to have changed much since that time? (Am I correct? if so why no/little change?, I may be confusing prices with The Legend?) I wish I had kept the original quote it would have been interesting to compare.

[junkofdavid2]

It's possible that the guys who "defend" the high prices are either correct or wrong (I don't know or care, I'm not buying nor selling now anyway), but it's funny how some of them seem to rush into a "fit of panic" to try defend the high prices/values anytime a poster states or even merely suggests that prices are dropping.

Not necessarily saying it happened on this particular thread yet though... maybe it has, maybe it hasn't; you judge for yourself!

Edited October 12, 2007 by junkofdavid2