Thailand Likely To Get Coalition Government: Pm

[george]

Thailand likely to get coalition government: PM

BANGKOK: -- The new Thai government to be formed after the December 23 general election will likely be a coalition one, interim Prime Minister Gen. Surayud Chulanont said Saturday.

Speaking during his weekly television programme, Gen. Surayud, concurrently interior minister, said there was a more than 70 per cent chance that Thailand will have a coalition government after the upcoming election, and yet it could be strong if there is more cooperation between political parties.

Political parties should learn from previous lessons and should strive for a better common future, or otherwise the political situation would get nowhere, he said.

"I've considerable hope on a new generation of politicians who would possess knowledge and experience in administration," Gen. Surayud said. "We should give them the opportunity to run the country."

The prime minister went on to say that in his capacity as interior minister he would assist the Election Commission in overseeing the election so that it is transparent, fair and prevents vote-buying.

The Interior Ministry has sufficient information and skilled officials in rural areas, to be able to complete that task, Gen. Surayud said.

Vote-buying could be prevented if political parties along with the public and private sectors join hands and that is why this government has made it a national agenda.

--TNA 2007-10-13

[Ned]

Constant squabbling and plotting. Unworkable. Another coup and the abolition of political parties......a la Sarit in 1958. Absolute ruler and martial law. Looking good.

[exgov]

Are there any political science majors that can explain to me "coalition government?" I think I may not want to know what the man is trying to say.

[ColPyat]

Are there any political science majors that can explain to me "coalition government?" I think I may not want to know what the man is trying to say.

A government that is formed by a coalition of different parties. Most democracies/multi-party systems are at some time, or most of the time, ruled by such a government.

As it translates to Thailand's past - mostly not working, because of internal squabbles over ministerial positions and infighting most such governments never lasted a full legislative period.

Yet, i believe that PPP has a very strong chance to dominate an eventual coalition government, and that will open another can of worms yet.

Edited October 13, 2007 by ColPyat

[cclub75]

Constant squabbling and plotting. Unworkable. Another coup and the abolition of political parties......a la Sarit in 1958. Absolute ruler and martial law. Looking good.

That's exactly the plan. The new constitution was designed for that : a powerless coalition, with a weak PM and gvt, that will be very easy to manipulate...

It's astonishing that Surayud, with his legendary ingenuity, reveals the stakes.

[Old Man River]

Thailand likely to get coalition government: PM

You think so?

Coalition governments are the norm here, and the fact that Thailand may well have another isn't surprising in the least.

[aaaaaa]

Constant squabbling and plotting. Unworkable. Another coup and the abolition of political parties......a la Sarit in 1958. Absolute ruler and martial law. Looking good.

That's exactly the plan. The new constitution was designed for that : a powerless coalition, with a weak PM and gvt, that will be very easy to manipulate...

It's astonishing that Surayud, with his legendary ingenuity, reveals the stakes.

and Abhisit simply helps it:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30052347

Abhisit vows not to be PM if coalition partners not support Democrat's people's agenda.

"I don't want to be the prime minister just to be the prime minister. But I want to be the prime minister to carry out the people's agenda policy."

is he now trying to become a populist as Thaksin was? making pledges in Isaan, promising to forgive loan debts....

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and party executives join

the party's event "Democrats Return to Isaan" in Khon Kean on Friday

Edited October 14, 2007 by aaaaaa

[Old Man River]

is he (Abhisit) now trying to become a populist as Thaksin was? making pledges in Isaan, promising to forgive loan debts....

The Demo's have been publicly announcing their policies for well over a month. Compare this to other parties which so far have publicly disclosed absolutely zero. As a Party, the Demo's are trying to put forth policies that will help the majority of people in Thailand (and get elected). This is consistent with political leaders in most democratic countries.

The issue of debt forgiveness is a sticky one. Ordinarily, this isn't something the Demo's would favor. However, it is well known that many people upcountry do not view their high consumer debt amounts to be their debt. Instead, many view it as Thaksin's debt and debt forgiveness is one large reason that people upcountry would want to see Thaksin return. Acknowledging this, the Demo's are in essence nullifying this as a selling point of the PPP, leveling the playing field. In addition, the Demo's believe it best to plan for this potential problem now instead of waiting for wholesale defaults and subsequent panic bailouts.

In other words, it is good politics and clearing Thaksin's debt will have to be done sooner or later anyway.

[hammered]

Well it is probably going to be a coalition governmnet although if PPP are left well alone to do their thing (unlikely but you never know with the incompetence of Surayud et al ) they could get enough transfers and keep them to win outright. The big question will be who will end up leading the coalition? We have heard of a lot of transfer fees already. Of course when along comes the coalition carve up waltz there will be a chnace for some even bigger fees to be earned.

It will be interesting to see if the dent forgiveness policy of the Dems will gain any traction although this is unlikely as they lack the "trusted" networks to get the word around where they need to unless of course the interiro ministry decides to come in on their side (unlikely). The policy whatver one thinks of it is exactly what farnmers are currently in Bangkok asking for. Personally I dont see this election being about policies outside of a relative few urban constituencies. After all most parties dont even seem to have any polices excpet for some thing about Bangkok mass transit which brings us back to ralatively few urban constituencies. I would think this election will be diecided on teh who can outpratonage who.

[Old Man River]

Well it is probably going to be a coalition governmnet although if PPP are left well alone to do their thing (unlikely but you never know with the incompetence of Surayud et al ) they could get enough transfers and keep them to win outright. The big question will be who will end up leading the coalition? We have heard of a lot of transfer fees already. Of course when along comes the coalition carve up waltz there will be a chnace for some even bigger fees to be earned.

It will be interesting to see if the dent forgiveness policy of the Dems will gain any traction although this is unlikely as they lack the "trusted" networks to get the word around where they need to unless of course the interiro ministry decides to come in on their side (unlikely). The policy whatver one thinks of it is exactly what farnmers are currently in Bangkok asking for. Personally I dont see this election being about policies outside of a relative few urban constituencies. After all most parties dont even seem to have any polices excpet for some thing about Bangkok mass transit which brings us back to ralatively few urban constituencies. I would think this election will be diecided on teh who can outpratonage who.

Don't forget about Prachai's policy: "I will make you rich". Nothing like getting right down to the heart of the matter that people really want to hear.

If you haven't yet taken a look at Crispin's recent article at Asia Online, do so. He has a different take on what may happen and it makes for interesting reading.

[lazeeboy]

Constant squabbling and plotting. Unworkable. Another coup and the abolition of political parties......a la Sarit in 1958. Absolute ruler and martial law. Looking good.

[samran]

was watching a puff piece on Abisit on Ch 5 last night.

He was talking about how he'd like to make certain forms of social welfare a right for the people, rather than simply a form of time to time benevolent hand out from a government (when it is in the mood), which is essentially the view Thaksin took.

The rest of it was a simple puff piece, but he is an articulate guy in both Thai and English. He did say two relatively interesting things though. Firstly the democrats are a party with a unifying philosphy, which is unlike anyother political party in Thailand. Within the context of Thai politics, this is true.

Secondly, he said that as a leader, there are plethora of good ideas that have already been thought of, implying the challenge is to implement them, rather than re-inventing the wheel policy wise.

[hammered]

Well it is probably going to be a coalition governmnet although if PPP are left well alone to do their thing (unlikely but you never know with the incompetence of Surayud et al ) they could get enough transfers and keep them to win outright. The big question will be who will end up leading the coalition? We have heard of a lot of transfer fees already. Of course when along comes the coalition carve up waltz there will be a chnace for some even bigger fees to be earned.

It will be interesting to see if the dent forgiveness policy of the Dems will gain any traction although this is unlikely as they lack the "trusted" networks to get the word around where they need to unless of course the interiro ministry decides to come in on their side (unlikely). The policy whatver one thinks of it is exactly what farnmers are currently in Bangkok asking for. Personally I dont see this election being about policies outside of a relative few urban constituencies. After all most parties dont even seem to have any polices excpet for some thing about Bangkok mass transit which brings us back to ralatively few urban constituencies. I would think this election will be diecided on teh who can outpratonage who.

Don't forget about Prachai's policy: "I will make you rich". Nothing like getting right down to the heart of the matter that people really want to hear.

If you haven't yet taken a look at Crispin's recent article at Asia Online, do so. He has a different take on what may happen and it makes for interesting reading.

It certainly is, and I would tend to think a deal would be done. However, agreeing the exact terms of a deal may well preclude it happening imho. Personally I think there is a lot of uncertainty right now and nobody can predict the outcome. We may well hear more of everything from deals to disolutions to who will definitley win depending on who is feeding the information. It would be interesting to know who Shawn got his info from. With his previous record it would be wrong to discount it as a possibility.

[Old Man River]

Well it is probably going to be a coalition governmnet although if PPP are left well alone to do their thing (unlikely but you never know with the incompetence of Surayud et al ) they could get enough transfers and keep them to win outright. The big question will be who will end up leading the coalition? We have heard of a lot of transfer fees already. Of course when along comes the coalition carve up waltz there will be a chnace for some even bigger fees to be earned.

It will be interesting to see if the dent forgiveness policy of the Dems will gain any traction although this is unlikely as they lack the "trusted" networks to get the word around where they need to unless of course the interiro ministry decides to come in on their side (unlikely). The policy whatver one thinks of it is exactly what farnmers are currently in Bangkok asking for. Personally I dont see this election being about policies outside of a relative few urban constituencies. After all most parties dont even seem to have any polices excpet for some thing about Bangkok mass transit which brings us back to ralatively few urban constituencies. I would think this election will be diecided on teh who can outpratonage who.

Don't forget about Prachai's policy: "I will make you rich". Nothing like getting right down to the heart of the matter that people really want to hear.

If you haven't yet taken a look at Crispin's recent article at Asia Online, do so. He has a different take on what may happen and it makes for interesting reading.

It certainly is, and I would tend to think a deal would be done. However, agreeing the exact terms of a deal may well preclude it happening imho. Personally I think there is a lot of uncertainty right now and nobody can predict the outcome. We may well hear more of everything from deals to disolutions to who will definitley win depending on who is feeding the information. It would be interesting to know who Shawn got his info from. With his previous record it would be wrong to discount it as a possibility.

One thing is for sure. The talk about Pojamon's land purchase on Ratchadaphisek has gone quiet. What was in the news every day is now not discussed. It is hard to believe that people like Thaksin and Gen. Sondhi would allow their futures to be governed by the whim of the people.

[Payboy]

Are there any political science majors that can explain to me "coalition government?" I think I may not want to know what the man is trying to say.

coalition is a convenient way of allowing all pigs to get their snouts in the trough...

[hammered]

Well it is probably going to be a coalition governmnet although if PPP are left well alone to do their thing (unlikely but you never know with the incompetence of Surayud et al ) they could get enough transfers and keep them to win outright. The big question will be who will end up leading the coalition? We have heard of a lot of transfer fees already. Of course when along comes the coalition carve up waltz there will be a chnace for some even bigger fees to be earned.

It will be interesting to see if the dent forgiveness policy of the Dems will gain any traction although this is unlikely as they lack the "trusted" networks to get the word around where they need to unless of course the interiro ministry decides to come in on their side (unlikely). The policy whatver one thinks of it is exactly what farnmers are currently in Bangkok asking for. Personally I dont see this election being about policies outside of a relative few urban constituencies. After all most parties dont even seem to have any polices excpet for some thing about Bangkok mass transit which brings us back to ralatively few urban constituencies. I would think this election will be diecided on teh who can outpratonage who.

Don't forget about Prachai's policy: "I will make you rich". Nothing like getting right down to the heart of the matter that people really want to hear.

If you haven't yet taken a look at Crispin's recent article at Asia Online, do so. He has a different take on what may happen and it makes for interesting reading.

It certainly is, and I would tend to think a deal would be done. However, agreeing the exact terms of a deal may well preclude it happening imho. Personally I think there is a lot of uncertainty right now and nobody can predict the outcome. We may well hear more of everything from deals to disolutions to who will definitley win depending on who is feeding the information. It would be interesting to know who Shawn got his info from. With his previous record it would be wrong to discount it as a possibility.

One thing is for sure. The talk about Pojamon's land purchase on Ratchadaphisek has gone quiet. What was in the news every day is now not discussed. It is hard to believe that people like Thaksin and Gen. Sondhi would allow their futures to be governed by the whim of the people.

Agree on an attempt to bring about a deal. The kind of terms hinted at in Shawns piece thoguh seem to be too good for PPP. I cant see it being that easy on them: allowed to basically get away with the transfer fee policy allowing them to win the election with their opponents laying aside all their dirty tricks to allow the PPP to win based on bought sitting MPs, with T staying in the UK for a couple of years and another vote in two years which theincumbents would be in a masive advatage of winning. And they get to change the charter and prosecute the coupists. I cant see that being agreed to, which is why I would be intersted to know who Shawns sources are. Yes the stuff on prosecuting has gone quiet but I am sure that those who opposed him are not going to allow him to exact vengeance on them while he goes scott free, and I am sure his vengeance would be much more swift and brutal than anything the current bumbling lot have attempted half heartedly to do. Interesting times. There is of course another potential big event that could throw this whole thing completely off track.

[Old Man River]

Well it is probably going to be a coalition governmnet although if PPP are left well alone to do their thing (unlikely but you never know with the incompetence of Surayud et al ) they could get enough transfers and keep them to win outright. The big question will be who will end up leading the coalition? We have heard of a lot of transfer fees already. Of course when along comes the coalition carve up waltz there will be a chnace for some even bigger fees to be earned.

It will be interesting to see if the dent forgiveness policy of the Dems will gain any traction although this is unlikely as they lack the "trusted" networks to get the word around where they need to unless of course the interiro ministry decides to come in on their side (unlikely). The policy whatver one thinks of it is exactly what farnmers are currently in Bangkok asking for. Personally I dont see this election being about policies outside of a relative few urban constituencies. After all most parties dont even seem to have any polices excpet for some thing about Bangkok mass transit which brings us back to ralatively few urban constituencies. I would think this election will be diecided on teh who can outpratonage who.

Don't forget about Prachai's policy: "I will make you rich". Nothing like getting right down to the heart of the matter that people really want to hear.

If you haven't yet taken a look at Crispin's recent article at Asia Online, do so. He has a different take on what may happen and it makes for interesting reading.

It certainly is, and I would tend to think a deal would be done. However, agreeing the exact terms of a deal may well preclude it happening imho. Personally I think there is a lot of uncertainty right now and nobody can predict the outcome. We may well hear more of everything from deals to disolutions to who will definitley win depending on who is feeding the information. It would be interesting to know who Shawn got his info from. With his previous record it would be wrong to discount it as a possibility.

One thing is for sure. The talk about Pojamon's land purchase on Ratchadaphisek has gone quiet. What was in the news every day is now not discussed. It is hard to believe that people like Thaksin and Gen. Sondhi would allow their futures to be governed by the whim of the people.

Agree on an attempt to bring about a deal. The kind of terms hinted at in Shawns piece thoguh seem to be too good for PPP. I cant see it being that easy on them: allowed to basically get away with the transfer fee policy allowing them to win the election with their opponents laying aside all their dirty tricks to allow the PPP to win based on bought sitting MPs, with T staying in the UK for a couple of years and another vote in two years which theincumbents would be in a masive advatage of winning. And they get to change the charter and prosecute the coupists. I cant see that being agreed to, which is why I would be intersted to know who Shawns sources are. Yes the stuff on prosecuting has gone quiet but I am sure that those who opposed him are not going to allow him to exact vengeance on them while he goes scott free, and I am sure his vengeance would be much more swift and brutal than anything the current bumbling lot have attempted half heartedly to do. Interesting times. There is of course another potential big event that could throw this whole thing completely off track.

I understand your points and agree. Agreements should be fair to both sides and I would think if there is one it would include a hold harmless for the military. From Thaksin's side, some money paid (so the junta doesn't lose face) and his promise to stay away while the PPP is in power (assuming they win the election). On the big event, let's all hope that doesn't happen for a long time.

[hammered]

Well it is probably going to be a coalition governmnet although if PPP are left well alone to do their thing (unlikely but you never know with the incompetence of Surayud et al ) they could get enough transfers and keep them to win outright. The big question will be who will end up leading the coalition? We have heard of a lot of transfer fees already. Of course when along comes the coalition carve up waltz there will be a chnace for some even bigger fees to be earned.

It will be interesting to see if the dent forgiveness policy of the Dems will gain any traction although this is unlikely as they lack the "trusted" networks to get the word around where they need to unless of course the interiro ministry decides to come in on their side (unlikely). The policy whatver one thinks of it is exactly what farnmers are currently in Bangkok asking for. Personally I dont see this election being about policies outside of a relative few urban constituencies. After all most parties dont even seem to have any polices excpet for some thing about Bangkok mass transit which brings us back to ralatively few urban constituencies. I would think this election will be diecided on teh who can outpratonage who.

Don't forget about Prachai's policy: "I will make you rich". Nothing like getting right down to the heart of the matter that people really want to hear.

If you haven't yet taken a look at Crispin's recent article at Asia Online, do so. He has a different take on what may happen and it makes for interesting reading.

It certainly is, and I would tend to think a deal would be done. However, agreeing the exact terms of a deal may well preclude it happening imho. Personally I think there is a lot of uncertainty right now and nobody can predict the outcome. We may well hear more of everything from deals to disolutions to who will definitley win depending on who is feeding the information. It would be interesting to know who Shawn got his info from. With his previous record it would be wrong to discount it as a possibility.

One thing is for sure. The talk about Pojamon's land purchase on Ratchadaphisek has gone quiet. What was in the news every day is now not discussed. It is hard to believe that people like Thaksin and Gen. Sondhi would allow their futures to be governed by the whim of the people.

Agree on an attempt to bring about a deal. The kind of terms hinted at in Shawns piece thoguh seem to be too good for PPP. I cant see it being that easy on them: allowed to basically get away with the transfer fee policy allowing them to win the election with their opponents laying aside all their dirty tricks to allow the PPP to win based on bought sitting MPs, with T staying in the UK for a couple of years and another vote in two years which theincumbents would be in a masive advatage of winning. And they get to change the charter and prosecute the coupists. I cant see that being agreed to, which is why I would be intersted to know who Shawns sources are. Yes the stuff on prosecuting has gone quiet but I am sure that those who opposed him are not going to allow him to exact vengeance on them while he goes scott free, and I am sure his vengeance would be much more swift and brutal than anything the current bumbling lot have attempted half heartedly to do. Interesting times. There is of course another potential big event that could throw this whole thing completely off track.

I understand your points and agree. Agreements should be fair to both sides and I would think if there is one it would include a hold harmless for the military. From Thaksin's side, some money paid (so the junta doesn't lose face) and his promise to stay away while the PPP is in power (assuming they win the election). On the big event, let's all hope that doesn't happen for a long time.

That would all seem more likely although I dont see an agreement that will allow the PPP a free run at the election. They have done their dirty stuff already in the mass purchase. An equal deal would be that the other side can do their dirty stuff too which will come at a later date. This is not about the carefully considered choices of the electorate not that it ever was. Personally I find the thought of Samak as PM as unbelievable in the modern age. Being PM rather than being in some human rights court doesnt seem right. He is a nasty piece of work even by Thai political standards. I also doubt very much if a deal can actually be done that Thaksin will stick to. He is almost certain to find the other side broke some minor part of the agreement to justify a few further actions of his. However, that doesnt mean a deal wont be done just that it could have an interesting codicile and one that the non-T side wont see coming.