Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

[LaoPo]

I'm not saying you're biased for any of those reasons. And you're not the only one that is. I'm saying it because you're failing to give any credence to what you see and give more credence to what you think you believe, which of course means less tha zero. I'm not saying the $USD has bottomed. I'm saying it's going up, and it's not done going up.

You are right LR; you base your reasons on charts; I do that on what I feel, read, see and notice.

There is indeed a big difference. I also base my opinions on what I hear, read and see, especially also from Asia because I have good contacts there and I also base my views on what the man in th street says, feels.

You base your views on charts, but there are no charts, as far as I know, for the future; that's why they are charts about facts, happened already.

I am NOT saying you are wrong, on the contrary, but if you're saying that my observations are meaning less than zero I could say the same about you, being an expert on charts.

Charts which are proof of the past.

But, I am not the one, telling you that your observations mean less than zero.

That's the difference, but, apart from that, NOTHING but respect for you.

I learned a lot from you, although you're younger than me; I'm happy to learn, every single day !

But, again LR, charts are facts from history, not the future.

I better listen to my guts and what I see....and, editing: Brit can say that the $ is rising and it's a fact than he has also to say, since when.... That he also says it's gloom and doom what I write is also non-sense. I'm just registering what's happening around the world.

That's all.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

You know, if I let myself "think to much", this is what I would be thinking. JP Morgan bought Bear Stearns and they had trillions in counter and other party derivatives risk exposure. Most derivatives moves in the last few years have moved commodities higher and anti dollar currencies higher. If you had to unwind those derivatives, it might be good for the $USD, since it was basically the other side of all these moves. Coincidentally, the $USD bottomed on the day JPM bought BS. Haven't seen any comment on this coincidence anywhere, but see what happens when you start thinking about things?

[Naam]

Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

i have no <deleted> idea. but please don't tell anybody!

[LaoPo]

Another one bites the dust....? For some who do not realize yet WHO and WHAT AIG stands for:

"According to the 2008 Forbes Global 2000 list, AIG was the 18th-largest company in the world."

Credit Suisse sees higher chance of AIG bankruptcy

(Reuters) - American International Group Inc faces heightened probability of a potential bankruptcy filing by the holding company, a Credit Suisse analyst said Tuesday, a day after the insurer's credit ratings were cut, jeopardizing efforts to raise cash necessary for its survival.

Shares of AIG, once the world's largest insurer by market value, fell as much as 74 percent to $1.25 in early trade on Tuesday, as investors fretted over the company's ability to secure desperately needed capital.

"While there is a chance the company can work its way through its liquidity problems if it can secure substantial bridge financing, we think this will be challenging to execute it in the current onerous credit environment," analyst Thomas Gallagher wrote in a note to clients.

The analyst estimated that negative marks at the AIG Financial Products (AIGFP) division, which manages AIG's credit default swaps portfolio, would require another $5 billion to $10 billion of collateral postings this quarter, pushing the total to $20 billion to $25 billion.

"Ironically, the weakening of its credit spreads and ratings could make it easier for AIGFP to attempt to commute its credit default swaps on collateralized debt obligations, but the large number of contracts and counterparties would likely make this a cumbersome and lengthy process," Gallagher added.

He cut his price target on the stock to $3 from $6 and maintained his "neutral" rating.

AIG, thrown a $20 billion lifeline by the state of New York, came under renewed pressure on Tuesday as ratings agencies downgraded the insurer's debt and the financial sector meltdown spread.

Moody's Investors Service cut AIG's rating to A2 from Aa3, a two-notch downgrade. S&P lowered the rating to A-minus from AA-minus, a three-peg reduction, and Fitch Ratings reduced its standing to A from AA-minus, a two-notch cut.

AIG's ratings are still investment grade, although all three agencies said more downgrades could follow.

Shares of the company were trading down $3.13 at $1.63 in early trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

--Reuters

Note:

"As of March 16, 2007, AIG Investments, a division of AIG, completed the purchase of 100% of the stock of P&O Ports North America from Dubai-based DP World."

--Wiki

Wasn't Dubai-based DP world the company who wanted to invest more in P&O Ports but were blocked by the Government in the US....? It seems they made a wrong decision.

Anyone a cookie with your coffee ? Viccy perhaps ?

No problem...all is well in the US, just a few companies went under......right Viccy ?

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Note:

"As of March 16, 2007, AIG Investments, a division of AIG, completed the purchase of 100% of the stock of P&O Ports North America from Dubai-based DP World."

--Wiki

March 16th, The Ides of March. Same day JPM bought BS and the dollar bottomed. Weird.

[Aries74]

Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

i have no <deleted> idea. but please don't tell anybody!

as of today, it's under the ocean.

[LaoPo]

And the House of Cards is falling...further...

Canary Wharf owner says Lehman's London rent backed by AIG Lehman's staff walked out yesterday, over, finished, finito and AIG backs the rent....IF it still has the money to pay, of course...

By Steve Goldstein

Last update: 10:44 a.m. EDT Sept. 16, 2008

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Songbird Estates , the majority owner of the Canary Wharf Group that houses several investment banks in London, detailed its exposure to Lehman Brothers.

Lehman leases 1.023 million square feet on a tenancy due to expire in July 2033, of which 100,000 square feet is sublet until 2013 and another 49,000 square foot sublet for two years. The current rent payable by Lehmans is 41 pounds a square foot which will rise to 53 pounds in November 2008.

The Lehman rent is included in a 2.55 billion pound securitized fund backed by a unit of American International Group (AIG). OUCH !

AIG is obliged to post collateral or have the AIG commitment guaranteed by an entity with specified credit ratings. The securitized structure also has a 300 million pound liquidity facility provided by Lloyds Bank plc

--Market Watch

And I am the gloom and doom sayer ?

LaoPo

[flying]

Charts which are proof of the past.

I no longer trade. But when I did I was a technical trader & loved charts.

It was the starting point for all my trades. If the chart looked good I then check the fundamentals.

What you say is true & is what makes them so useful.

They are *concrete* proof of what the stock/market has done. In a sense it is building a concrete sidewalk that shows the direction of the stock/market & from that info the likelihood of its further direction.

IMHO of course

Edited September 16, 2008 by flying

[LaoPo]

Charts which are proof of the past.

I no longer trade. But when I did I was a technical trader & loved charts.

It was the starting point for all my trades. If the chart looked good I then check the fundamentals.

What you say is true & is what makes them so useful.

They are *concrete* proof of what the stock/market has done. In a sense it is building a concrete sidewalk that shows the direction of the stock/market & from that info the likelihood of its further direction.

IMHO of course

I see.....

And what did the charts tell you about the companies that went under this week and NOBODY SAW coming ?

I am most interested if one of you specialists could show us the charts from the companies I mentioned earlier. *** see below

Let's start showing those charts from 1 year ago until now, is that a good suggestion ?

I am particularly interested in any one of you could have predicted from those charts that the same companies WOULD go under....

OK guys, I can't wait; you don't have to have owned the shares themselves, just show and teach me WHY those companies (as you will show in the charts)....... the buggers would go under, ok ? It must be quite simple for you and I am just a schoolboy in charts.

*** Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, AIG (World's largest Insurer lost -93% in 1 year)), WaMu: lost -94% of stock value in 1 year, Goldman Sachs (3rd Q profits plunged -70%) Countrywide (bankrupt but taken over by BoA).....The BIG 3 in Detroit ?

I'm waiting....1, 2, 3.....

LaoPo

[flying]

Charts which are proof of the past.

I no longer trade. But when I did I was a technical trader & loved charts.

It was the starting point for all my trades. If the chart looked good I then check the fundamentals.

What you say is true & is what makes them so useful.

They are *concrete* proof of what the stock/market has done. In a sense it is building a concrete sidewalk that shows the direction of the stock/market & from that info the likelihood of its further direction.

IMHO of course

I see.....

And what did the charts tell you about the companies that went under this week and NOBODY SAW coming ?

I am most interested if one of you specialists could show us the charts from the companies I mentioned earlier. *** see below

Let's start showing those charts from 1 year ago until now, is that a good suggestion ?

I am particularly interested in any one of you could have predicted from those charts that the same companies WOULD go under....

OK guys, I can't wait; you don't have to have owned the shares themselves, just show and teach me WHY those companies (as you will show in the charts)....... the buggers would go under, ok ? It must be quite simple for you and I am just a schoolboy in charts.

*** Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, AIG (World's largest Insurer lost -93% in 1 year)), WaMu: lost -94% of stock value in 1 year, Goldman Sachs (3rd Q profits plunged -70%) Countrywide (bankrupt but taken over by BoA).....The BIG 3 in Detroit ?

I'm waiting....1, 2, 3.....

LaoPo

Calm Down......

Like I said I no longer trade. I am all cash & have been for quite a few years actually. Except for real estate & maybe 10% gov securities.

If your really interested there are many good books on charting & you can learn for yourself.

As you know none get taught for free in anything.

I was only commenting IMHO on something you said.

Carry on I will refrain from comment

Edited September 16, 2008 by flying

[LaoPo]

Charts which are proof of the past.

I no longer trade. But when I did I was a technical trader & loved charts.

It was the starting point for all my trades. If the chart looked good I then check the fundamentals.

What you say is true & is what makes them so useful.

They are *concrete* proof of what the stock/market has done. In a sense it is building a concrete sidewalk that shows the direction of the stock/market & from that info the likelihood of its further direction.

IMHO of course

I see.....

And what did the charts tell you about the companies that went under this week and NOBODY SAW coming ?

I am most interested if one of you specialists could show us the charts from the companies I mentioned earlier. *** see below

Let's start showing those charts from 1 year ago until now, is that a good suggestion ?

I am particularly interested in any one of you could have predicted from those charts that the same companies WOULD go under....

OK guys, I can't wait; you don't have to have owned the shares themselves, just show and teach me WHY those companies (as you will show in the charts)....... the buggers would go under, ok ? It must be quite simple for you and I am just a schoolboy in charts.

*** Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, AIG (World's largest Insurer lost -93% in 1 year)), WaMu: lost -94% of stock value in 1 year, Goldman Sachs (3rd Q profits plunged -70%) Countrywide (bankrupt but taken over by BoA).....The BIG 3 in Detroit ?

I'm waiting....1, 2, 3.....

LaoPo

Calm Down......

Like I said I no longer trade. I am all cash & have been for quite a few years actually. Except for real estate & maybe 10% gov securities.

If your really interested there are many good books on charting & you can learn for yourself.

As you know none get taught for free in anything.

I was only commenting IMHO on something you said.

Carry on I will refrain from comment

No Problem Flying, I was just teasing and being ironic. I could have given the charts or share prices myself (I did already previously; share prices).

My point was merely that charts are history and facts but no guarantee for the future; that's all.

If only WE would know the future charts....

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Dollar May Get `Crushed' as Traders Weigh Up Bailout

By Bo Nielsen and Anchalee Worrachate

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan to end the rout in U.S. financial markets may derail the dollar's three-month rally as investors weigh the costs of the rescue.

The combination of spending $700 billion on soured mortgage-related assets and providing $400 billion to guarantee money-market mutual funds will boost U.S. borrowing as much as $1 trillion, according to Barclays Capital interest-rate strategist Michael Pond in New York. While the rescue may restore investor confidence to battered financial markets, traders will again focus on the twin budget and current-account deficits and negative real U.S. interest rates.

``As we get to the other side of this, the dollar will get crushed,'' said John Taylor, chairman of New York-based International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the world's biggest currency hedge-fund firm, which manages about $15 billion.

The dollar fell against 14 of the world's most-traded currencies on Sept. 19, including the euro, as Paulson unveiled the plan, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 4 percent. The plan may end the rally that began in June and drove the U.S. currency up 10 percent versus the euro, 2 percent against the yen and almost 13 percent compared with Brazil's real, strategists said.

Paulson's plan, sent to Congress Sept. 20, would mark an unprecedented government intrusion into markets and increase the nation's debt ceiling by 6.6 percent to $11.315 trillion. Officials may also start a $400 billion Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. pool to insure investors in money-market funds.

Dollar `Downdraft'

``The downdraft on the dollar from the hit to the balance sheet of the U.S. government will dwarf the short-term gains from solving the banking crisis,'' said David Woo, London-based global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Barclays, the third- biggest currency trader, according to a 2008 survey by Euromoney Institutional Investor Plc.

Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke began plotting the rescue last week after New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy, the government seized control of American International Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. was forced into the arms of Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp.

Morgan Stanley dropped as much as 44 percent Sept. 17, the biggest one-day decline in its history, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., where Paulson was chief executive officer from 1998 to 2006, lost 26 percent. Both are based in New York.

Dollar Hegemony

The dollar fell 0.4 percent to $1.4530 per euro as of 8:27 a.m. in London, after dropping 1.7 percent in the week to Sept. 19. It slid 1 percent to 106.33 yen, extending last week's 0.5 percent decline.

In the four days following Lehman's bankruptcy, the ICE future exchange's Dollar Index, which measures the currency's performance against the U.S.'s six biggest trading partners, dropped 1.2 percent. It fell 0.3 percent today, leaving it 1 percent higher this year.

``After years of doubting the hegemonic status of the dollar, this proves it's still there,'' said Stephen Jen, London-based head of research at Morgan Stanley. ``But of course this situation is definitely not stable. The capital leaving the emerging markets is only going into the dollar and that's a powerful force. It's a very uncomfortable balance.''

By the end of the year, the euro will weaken to $1.43 and the yen will trade at 108 to the dollar, according to analyst surveys by Bloomberg. The dollar will depreciate to 1.65 against the real, compared with 1.83 on Sept. 19.

Growth, Deficits

Although the dollar may suffer short-term, at least one analyst says the U.S. government's planned rescue will strengthen the currency before long. Paulson's proposals will return foreign-exchange markets to the trend of the past months, according to Adam Boyton, senior currency strategist at Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG, the world's biggest currency- trading bank. Since the end of June, the Dollar Index has gained 7.2 percent.

``It's a positive plan that's ultimately good for the dollar,'' said New York-based Boyton. ``It reduces risk and volatility and gets the focus back on macroeconomic fundamentals, which suggest weakness throughout the rest of the globe next year, with returning strength in the U.S.''

The U.S. economy may expand 1.5 percent next year, according to the median estimate of 80 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with 1.1 percent for the euro-region and 1.15 percent for Japan, the world's second-largest economy.

`Huge New Supply'

The rescue comes as the U.S. budget deficit and the current-account balance, the broadest measure of trade, grow. The Congressional Budget Office projects the spending shortfall will increase to $438 billion next year from $407 billion. The current account deficit is up from $167.24 billion in December.

``Investors may start to worry about the amount of debt the U.S. is taking on and its impact on the dollar,'' said Geoffrey Yu, a currency strategist in London at UBS AG, the second- largest foreign-exchange trader. ``The fact that they mentioned taxpayer money implies that they're going to issue debt. If there's going to be a huge new supply of Treasuries, this will be dollar negative. It's too much for the dollar to take.''

Traders are also concerned the bank bailout will spread to other U.S. industries suffering from the credit crunch that's holding back an economy growing at its slowest pace since 2001. Detroit-based General Motors Corp., the world's biggest automaker, said last week it will tap the remaining $3.5 billion of a $4.5 billion credit line to pay for restructuring costs.

`Damaged' Currencies

Lower interest rates may also weigh on the dollar. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show there's a 38 percent chance policy makers will lower their target rate for overnight lending between banks to at least 1.75 percent by January from 2 percent currently. A month ago, they showed a 46 percent chance of an increase to 2.25 percent.

Rates in the U.S. are already the lowest of any the Group of 10 industrialized nations except Japan, where they are 0.5 percent. The European Central Bank's benchmark is 4.25 percent.

Another drawback for the dollar is that the Fed's key rate is 3.4 percentage points less than the rate of inflation, the most since 1980, so investors lose money by investing in short- term U.S. fixed-income assets.

``People thought that the Fed was done cutting,'' said Andrew Balls, an executive vice president and member of the investment committee of Newport, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees almost $830 billion. ``In the longer term the diversification away from the dollar will remain intact. The U.S. hasn't done itself any favors in making its assets attractive to foreign investors.''

Brazil, Australia

The biggest beneficiaries may be Brazil's real and Australia's dollar, as demand for higher-yielding assets rebounds, according to Goldman Sachs. The two currencies, the biggest losers versus the dollar since July, may rebound 7.7 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively, the next two weeks, Goldman Sachs forecasts.

``The currencies that have been damaged the most have the best growth,'' said Jens Nordvig, a strategist with Goldman Sachs in New York. ``You're going to see a lot of flows back into these currencies now.''

--Bloomberg

LaoPo

[whatsoever]

The FED is a private for profit company that simply produces $$$ which are subsequently loaned to the US government. They have never been audited so as to wether or not they have any actual reserves - who knows.

The more $$$ they print and put into circulation then the less the $$$ currently in circulation become worth.

Its economics 101 yet an alien concept to most Americans (or populations in general). Are people so dumbed down that they dont even consider where the FED ( a private company) finds all this money!

[LaoPo]

Dollar Weakens Most Since Euro's 1999 Debut on Budget Deficit

By Ye Xie and Bo Nielsen

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar weakened the most against the euro since the European currency's 1999 debut on concern a U.S. proposal to buy $700 billion of troubled assets from financial firms will inflate the budget deficit.

The greenback dropped for a fourth day in its longest stretch of decline since June as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan to bail out banks from the credit crunch failed to restore investor confidence in U.S. assets. Stocks and bonds fell, and oil prices surged.

``The massive increase in the deficit is starting to make people rethink the shape of all sorts of things, including the dollar,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy for North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut.

The dollar fell 2.4 percent to $1.4818 per euro at 3:21 p.m. in New York, from $1.4466 on Sept. 19. It touched $1.4821, the weakest level since Aug. 22. The dollar may slide to $1.50 in the next several weeks, according to Ruskin. The dollar dropped 1.9 percent to 105.41 yen, from 107.45. The euro increased 0.4 percent to 156.12 yen, from 155.46.

The U.S. currency has lost more than 6 percent versus the euro since touching a one-year high of $1.3882 on Sept. 11. The dollar reached $1.6038 on July 15, the weakest level since the European currency's 1999 inception.

Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke began plotting the rescue last week after New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy, the government seized control of American International Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co. was forced into the arms of Bank of America Corp. Paulson and Bernanke are due to testify before the Senate tomorrow on the banking crisis.

Debt Ceiling

The bailout plan, sent to Congress Sept. 20, would mark unprecedented government participation in markets and increase the nation's debt ceiling by 6.6 percent to $11.315 trillion. Officials may also provide $400 billion of guarantees for money- market funds.

The dollar will get ``crushed,'' as the extra spending reduces the allure of U.S. assets to foreign investors, said John Taylor, chairman of New York-based International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the world's biggest currency hedge-fund firm, which manages about $15 billion.

The yen rose 1.3 percent to 9.95 against the Mexican peso on reduced demand for carry trades, in which traders get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest where returns are higher. The Bank of Japan's target lending rate of 0.5 percent compares with 8.25 percent in Mexico.

`Severe Slowdown'

``Even with a plan, the likelihood there will be a very severe slowdown in the U.S. and elsewhere has increased,'' said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist in London at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. ``I don't think people will return to the same old risk-taking world.''

The rand weakened 0.8 percent to 8.0233 per dollar as South African President Thabo Mbeki's resignation increased speculation foreign investors will sell the country's assets on extended global financial turmoil. The currency dropped 2 percent to 11.6860 against the euro.

The chance of the Fed cutting its benchmark 2 percent rate by a quarter-percentage point at an Oct. 29 policy meeting was 38 percent, compared with zero a month ago, futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed. The European Central Bank's main refinancing rate is 4.25 percent.

Economic Reports

Home resales declined to 4.94 million last month from 5 million in July, according to the median forecast of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The National Association of Realtors' report is scheduled for release Sept. 24. The Commerce Department is forecast to report the next day that sales of new houses dropped to 510,000 from 515,000 and that durable goods orders fell 1.8 percent.

``We look for the dollar to reflect the weakness in the U.S. economy,'' said David Powell, a currency strategist at Bank of America in London. ``The dollar is not yet receiving the yield support that would normally be acquired in order to support a sustained rally.''

The yield advantage of two-year German bund over the comparable-maturity U.S. notes widened to 1.81 percentage points, from 1.66 at the beginning of the month, making the U.S. assets less attractive.

-Bloomberg

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

And as if by magic the £/$ hits 2.10 this morning and China says it may diversify its holdings into the Euro! I think 2.20 is easily on the cards.

You may be right, and this could be a washout event. If it is, it will be a spectacular failure of a high probability VLT chart pattern.

FWIW:

US dollar index high in 2001 was 121.02. A fibonacci .618 times that is 74.79. We got to 75.07 this morning.

British Pound at 2.1050 is exactly double it's 1984 (or was it 1985) low at 105.20.

Turns out it wasn't a spectacular failure after all and has unfolded just as one would have expected it should.

[PeaceBlondie]

Year to date, against the dollar, the UK pound has lost 18%, and the euro has lost 9%. The yen, however, gained over 11%. As to where the dollar is headed on the charts, it will reach its Dec 31 value at year's end.

[lannarebirth]

To address the OP's question "where's the $USD heading to"? It's heading up to probe/flatten/deslope it's 40 month ema. It's got 4 1/2 years of positive divergances in it's chart that say eventually it will move higher still. The GBP OTOH is going to 1.35 eventually (slight chance it makes new highs first).

I personally would bet no more than 12 baht on my prophecy, but I think it's correct anyway. Time will tell.

And that's what it's done. The amount of time the $USD can stay over it's monthly 40ema should signal if the $USD has bottomed or not.

[Tim207]

The FED is a private for profit company that simply produces $$$ which are subsequently loaned to the US government. They have never been audited so as to wether or not they have any actual reserves - who knows.

The more $$$ they print and put into circulation then the less the $$$ currently in circulation become worth.

Its economics 101 yet an alien concept to most Americans (or populations in general). Are people so dumbed down that they dont even consider where the FED ( a private company) finds all this money!

I think you need to learn a little more about the Fed. Here is a small excerpt from wikipedia. Maybe you should look it up before making more bizarre statements.

"The Federal Reserve System is an independent government institution that has private aspects. The System is not a private organization and does not operate for the purpose of making a profit. The stocks of the regional federal reserve banks are owned by the banks operating within that region and which are part of the system.[26] The System derives its authority and public purpose from the Federal Reserve Act passed by Congress in 1913. As an independent institution, the Federal Reserve has the authority to act on its own without prior approval from Congress or the President.[27] The members of its Board of Governors are appointed for long, staggered terms, limiting the influence of day-to-day political considerations.[28] The Federal Reserve System's unique structure also provides internal checks and balances, ensuring that its decisions and operations are not dominated by any one part of the system. It also generates revenue independently without need for Congressional funding. Congressional oversight and statutes, which can alter the Fed's responsibilities and control, allow the government to keep the Federal Reserve System in check. Since the System was designed to be independent whilst also remaining within the government of the United States, it is often said to be "independent within the government."[27]"

[flying]

I think you need to learn a little more about the Fed. Here is a small excerpt from wikipedia.

Here is a small exerpt from

http://taxes.suite101.com/article.cfm/what...federal_reserve

How The Federal Reserve Was Founded

In 1907, rumours emerged that caused the latest of a string of large-scale bank runs. Fears of an economic depression shattered the confidence of the American people, who soon called for bank reforms.

A group of wealthy businessmen – led by J P Morgan, Paul Warburg and John D Rockefeller – intervened to pave the way for the establishment of a private central bank. With their connections, they soon put a banker-controlled plan to President Woodrow Wilson.

In a decision that would later come to haunt him, President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law. In doing so, he effectively placed control of the US economy squarely in the hands of the private bankers, who would go on to create massive amounts of credit – backed by absolutely nothing.

They did this by printing new bank notes and lending them with added interest to the Government for redistribution. This means that every single dollar in circulation has a debt attached, payable to the creators of the Federal Reserve. Today the national debt is over $9.2 trillion.

In 1919, President Wilson expressed his profound regret over his decision, stating:

"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men." ¹

This is also a good one with great history

http://newsfromthewest.blogspot.com/2008/0...al-reserve.html

Does not show well in my Firefox though

Edited October 12, 2008 by flying

[Naam]

Year to date, against the dollar, the UK pound has lost 18%, and the euro has lost 9%. The yen, however, gained over 11%. As to where the dollar is headed on the charts, it will reach its Dec 31 value at year's end.

a remarkably precise prediction

[PeaceBlondie]

Year to date, against the dollar, the UK pound has lost 18%, and the euro has lost 9%. The yen, however, gained over 11%. As to where the dollar is headed on the charts, it will reach its Dec 31 value at year's end.

a remarkably precise prediction

Thank you, kind sir.

Here is a shocker as to where the USD is going. Yesterday, it momentarily peaked at 14 pesos mexicanos nuevos! I left Mexico when it was at 9.2. In August it was at 9.88. It has retreated already to 12.67. I get a weekly bulletin from Mexico and know of nothing that happened there to make it surge to 14 ...except that all He11 is breaking loose world-wide, financially, and investors feel better about USD than MXN. If the good Dr. Tarisa at the BOT were not trying so hard to manipulate the baht against the dollar, I suspect the baht would be right up there with the Korean won and the Mexican peso.

[LaoPo]

Year to date, against the dollar, the UK pound has lost 18%, and the euro has lost 9%. The yen, however, gained over 11%. As to where the dollar is headed on the charts, it will reach its Dec 31 value at year's end.

a remarkably precise prediction

...and...it will be the second time, as the thread was started last year

ps: I'm in a hurry but it would be nice to post the various currency rates as of 31-12-2007 and 31-12-2008 (IF we reach that date )

LaoPo

[Naam]

"it is predicted to be true that the US-Dollar will fetch 45 Baht by year end"

"perhaps not 45 but i think 40 Baht"

have you people bought rubber sheets in the meantime to protect your mattresses?

[AlexLah]

Dear Naam,

I would like to follow your advice but have no idea where in BKK I could buy rubber sheets.

If you also happen to know the price for them (Queen size) that would be very much appreciated.

Sorry for being off topic.

OK, I say historical charts in these times do not mean a thing.

Common sense then?

Maybe or maybe not.

The printing of extra money should cause a huge inflation and a surge in for example gold and silver prices but it did not happen (yet),

Why is the oil price down from 146 to 80 something Dollar, fear of less demand they say.

There are many things happening right now that do not make sense.

We need to know why it is, that governements are so eager to pump in extra cash and say they are willing to do anything.

What is it that they try to prevent?

Alex

[churchill]

"What is it that they try to prevent?"

Basically , I think , the banks do not have enough money to cover their deposits , our cash - So if everyone decides to withdraw there would not be enough money and banks would go bust , people and business would be bankrupt - Panic !

[lannarebirth]

Alex,

The reason oil and other commodities are tumbling is because pensions and other money funds became involved in the commodities market. They took an incredible amount of money into a limited marketplace and every month they made one way futures bets at ever higher strikes. Apparently they used a considerable amount of leverage in doing so.

Now it's all got to be undone, and fast, as the trade has moved against them. It's incredible misfeasance and they should be jailed. You're going to be hearing some incredibly sad stories about pension funds soon. Hedge funds too, but I imagine they'll garner less sympathy.

[lannarebirth]

"What is it that they try to prevent?"

Basically , I think , the banks do not have enough money to cover their deposits , our cash - So if everyone decides to withdraw there would not be enough money and banks would go bust , people and business would be bankrupt - Panic !

I think protecting the peoples money is only a tangential issue. It is "the system" they seek to protect. That system is riddled with counterparty derivatives risk. They have to bring that down in as orderly a fashion as possible.

[flying]

What is it that they try to prevent?

See I think this IS the problem. We all assume they are trying to prevent something.

The more I see & the more I hear, read....The more I think they the US gov (Im not 100% sure Euro is a willing participant or just reacting ) is the CAUSE not the Prevention of this downward spiral.

Robert Willumstad was on CNBC today. He is the former CEO of AIG. Also previously the president of Citi Group.

He said basically the problem became what it is when the Government bailed Fannie & Freddie. That started their slide & they scrambled for liquidity for the storm they knew would come. Then Lehman made their announcement & that cause a AIG downgrade which cost them another 20 billion.

They had no choice at that time but to take the governments *prevention* $$$

But this guy Willumstad he is not like the other CEO's I have watched. Definitely not like Leahmans President Fuld who I think is a willing participant.

Willumstad is no longer at AIG & also refused his 22 million severant pay.

For some reason he has a conscience. Seems like he was just a pawn brought in only 3 months before this started. Then replaced???? Do they actually blame him?

I wont say it is a conspiracy or plain stupidity but the further this unravels the more unbelievable it becomes. That it could be created by their actions disguised as help becomes more believable to me.

So what are they trying to prevent??

My answer would be the same as always they are trying to prevent us from noticing what the left non news worthy hand is doing.

[lannarebirth]

It's extraordinary what type of behavior people have been conditioned to expect from their government. I don't know, but I would love someone to explain it to me. One thing I do know for certain, the very banks the government is buying interests in, with the peoples money, are short this market. Yeah, that makes sense.?

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

What concerns me is the gov't seems to feel a good war always takes peoples mind off of the economy and is great for creating jobs. Unfortunately both parties seem to be inclined to go to war with somebody maybe anybody.

Can we just write in Ophra? She wouldn't go to war.