Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

[cloudhopper]

You don't see that everyday:

Hmmmm,

I love this technical stuff!

Maybe the USD is the next bubble...

[cloudhopper]

Here's some more tech analysis from Jesse'sCrossroadsCafe:

How High Will the Dollar Go?

Let's call this one "Your Host Exhibits His Falliblity" and general inability to see the future. Its a good reminder to all of us, of how little we really 'know.'

This is an email sent in response to a question "How high will the Dollar rally? Give us a best guess."

Who can know these things with any certainty? As guesses go this is probably as good as any.

Tell me if the European banks are stabilizing and are no longer starving for dollars, and that there is a meaningful decline in the TED and LIBOR$ and the top in the dollar will be easier to project.

Its hard to say because I don't have the latest data on the Banks balances in europe from BIS.

For my best guess I have to go to the charts. Part of me says it tops this week, but I won't bet on it.

The charts alone call the top around 85. Currencies overshoot. That's why I cannot

be more precise, especially since we are in a short squeeze unrelated to fundamentals.

So I would estimate just on gut instinct and charting that we probably topped about 30 minutes ago, at 84.263,

but might continue on to test 85ish. and mess around there until this clears up. I'd like to see LIBOR$ and TED

confirm this by dropping like a rock. LOL. Then I might bet on it.

[VegasVic]

Here's some more tech analysis from Jesse'sCrossroadsCafe:

How High Will the Dollar Go?

Let's call this one "Your Host Exhibits His Falliblity" and general inability to see the future. Its a good reminder to all of us, of how little we really 'know.'

This is an email sent in response to a question "How high will the Dollar rally? Give us a best guess."

Who can know these things with any certainty? As guesses go this is probably as good as any.

Tell me if the European banks are stabilizing and are no longer starving for dollars, and that there is a meaningful decline in the TED and LIBOR$ and the top in the dollar will be easier to project.

Its hard to say because I don't have the latest data on the Banks balances in europe from BIS.

For my best guess I have to go to the charts. Part of me says it tops this week, but I won't bet on it.

The charts alone call the top around 85. Currencies overshoot. That's why I cannot

be more precise, especially since we are in a short squeeze unrelated to fundamentals.

So I would estimate just on gut instinct and charting that we probably topped about 30 minutes ago, at 84.263,

but might continue on to test 85ish. and mess around there until this clears up. I'd like to see LIBOR$ and TED

confirm this by dropping like a rock. LOL. Then I might bet on it.

The TED spreads are indeed finally showing signs of improvement, but they are still way way out of whack When you add a falling oil price into the mix, then you get a picture that tells me that the Dollar is still going higher vs. the Pound and the Euro

[lannarebirth]

You don't see that everyday:

Hmmmm,

I love this technical stuff!

Maybe the USD is the next bubble...

Possibly, but it will have to stop being in a multi decade downtrend first. Bubble land woud be some valuation more than 2 times higher than here.

[lannarebirth]

Here's some more tech analysis from Jesse'sCrossroadsCafe:

How High Will the Dollar Go?

Let's call this one "Your Host Exhibits His Falliblity" and general inability to see the future. Its a good reminder to all of us, of how little we really 'know.'

This is an email sent in response to a question "How high will the Dollar rally? Give us a best guess."

Who can know these things with any certainty? As guesses go this is probably as good as any.

Tell me if the European banks are stabilizing and are no longer starving for dollars, and that there is a meaningful decline in the TED and LIBOR$ and the top in the dollar will be easier to project.

Its hard to say because I don't have the latest data on the Banks balances in europe from BIS.

For my best guess I have to go to the charts. Part of me says it tops this week, but I won't bet on it.

The charts alone call the top around 85. Currencies overshoot. That's why I cannot

be more precise, especially since we are in a short squeeze unrelated to fundamentals.

So I would estimate just on gut instinct and charting that we probably topped about 30 minutes ago, at 84.263,

but might continue on to test 85ish. and mess around there until this clears up. I'd like to see LIBOR$ and TED

confirm this by dropping like a rock. LOL. Then I might bet on it.

THE thing to note about the $USD is that it's ST cycles are becoming right translated. That hasntr happened since the last time it made a major bottom. Next will be to see if IT (80 week) cycle becomes RT. That might signal it's downtrend is over for a while. Anyhow, it's getting pretty extended here, but Euro GBP and other targets not met yet.

[VegasVic]

Here's some more tech analysis from Jesse'sCrossroadsCafe:

How High Will the Dollar Go?

Let's call this one "Your Host Exhibits His Falliblity" and general inability to see the future. Its a good reminder to all of us, of how little we really 'know.'

This is an email sent in response to a question "How high will the Dollar rally? Give us a best guess."

Who can know these things with any certainty? As guesses go this is probably as good as any.

Tell me if the European banks are stabilizing and are no longer starving for dollars, and that there is a meaningful decline in the TED and LIBOR$ and the top in the dollar will be easier to project.

Its hard to say because I don't have the latest data on the Banks balances in europe from BIS.

For my best guess I have to go to the charts. Part of me says it tops this week, but I won't bet on it.

The charts alone call the top around 85. Currencies overshoot. That's why I cannot

be more precise, especially since we are in a short squeeze unrelated to fundamentals.

So I would estimate just on gut instinct and charting that we probably topped about 30 minutes ago, at 84.263,

but might continue on to test 85ish. and mess around there until this clears up. I'd like to see LIBOR$ and TED

confirm this by dropping like a rock. LOL. Then I might bet on it.

The TED spreads are indeed finally showing signs of improvement, but they are still way way out of whack When you add a falling oil price into the mix, then you get a picture that tells me that the Dollar is still going higher vs. the Pound and the Euro

I didn't have to wait long! The Pound and the Euro are taking a beating in the Asian markets already, last quote I saw for the Pound was $1.645 and the Euro is $1.29

[cloudhopper]

You don't see that everyday:

Hmmmm,

I love this technical stuff!

Maybe the USD is the next bubble...

Possibly, but it will have to stop being in a multi decade downtrend first. Bubble land woud be some valuation more than 2 times higher than here.

Awesome!

If more of that right-translation keeps happening and it does turn out to be up up for the USD I guess there will be a lot of short covering along with some really painful deleveraging especially in the European market where the broker dealers didn't seem to have the same reserve requirements as their US counterparts do.

The mother of all bubbles?

[lannarebirth]

You don't see that everyday:

Hmmmm,

I love this technical stuff!

Maybe the USD is the next bubble...

Possibly, but it will have to stop being in a multi decade downtrend first. Bubble land woud be some valuation more than 2 times higher than here.

Awesome!

If more of that right-translation keeps happening and it does turn out to be up up for the USD I guess there will be a lot of short covering along with some really painful deleveraging especially in the European market where the broker dealers didn't seem to have the same reserve requirements as their US counterparts do.

The mother of all bubbles?

You're on the crack pipe right? I couldn't even begin to think about a "bubble" while it's stuck in a ditch.

[VegasVic]

You don't see that everyday:

Hmmmm,

I love this technical stuff!

Maybe the USD is the next bubble...

Possibly, but it will have to stop being in a multi decade downtrend first. Bubble land woud be some valuation more than 2 times higher than here.

Awesome!

If more of that right-translation keeps happening and it does turn out to be up up for the USD I guess there will be a lot of short covering along with some really painful deleveraging especially in the European market where the broker dealers didn't seem to have the same reserve requirements as their US counterparts do.

The mother of all bubbles?

"The mother of all bubbles?" You have already had the mother of all bubbles in the Pound, Euro, Oil and gold over the past 4-5 years, now that bubble is bursting and those who continued to cling to the Pound and Euro have been paying a very dear price so far and the unwinding has just begun

[Naam]

You don't see that everyday:

Hmmmm,

I love this technical stuff!

Maybe the USD is the next bubble...

Possibly, but it will have to stop being in a multi decade downtrend first. Bubble land woud be some valuation more than 2 times higher than here.

Awesome!

If more of that right-translation keeps happening and it does turn out to be up up for the USD I guess there will be a lot of short covering along with some really painful deleveraging especially in the European market where the broker dealers didn't seem to have the same reserve requirements as their US counterparts do.

The mother of all bubbles?

"The mother of all bubbles?" You have already had the mother of all bubbles in the Pound, Euro, Oil and gold over the past 4-5 years, now that bubble is bursting and those who continued to cling to the Pound and Euro have been paying a very dear price so far and the unwinding has just begun

and the next grandmother of all bubbles (the "strength" of the UD-Dollar) has started to develop we have to live with bubbles but be aware that bubbles have a tendency to burst

Edited October 22, 2008 by Naam

[lannarebirth]

Too bad no Japanese boardmembers. Then we could talk about currency bubbles.

[Naam]

bubble: 400 billion DOLLARS are presently needed to settle the Lehman derivative bubble in Dollars. these Dollars have to be bought in the market against various currencies causing not all but definitely a part of the bubble.

[Naam]

Too bad no Japanese boardmembers. Then we could talk about currency bubbles.

in my [not so] humble opinion JP¥ is undervalued

[lannarebirth]

Too bad no Japanese boardmembers. Then we could talk about currency bubbles.

in my [not so] humble opinion JP¥ is undervalued

I'm not so sure it's "undervalued", but I'd say it's going higher. In that sense the market agrees with you.

[VegasVic]

You don't see that everyday:

Hmmmm,

I love this technical stuff!

Maybe the USD is the next bubble...

Possibly, but it will have to stop being in a multi decade downtrend first. Bubble land woud be some valuation more than 2 times higher than here.

Awesome!

If more of that right-translation keeps happening and it does turn out to be up up for the USD I guess there will be a lot of short covering along with some really painful deleveraging especially in the European market where the broker dealers didn't seem to have the same reserve requirements as their US counterparts do.

The mother of all bubbles?

"The mother of all bubbles?" You have already had the mother of all bubbles in the Pound, Euro, Oil and gold over the past 4-5 years, now that bubble is bursting and those who continued to cling to the Pound and Euro have been paying a very dear price so far and the unwinding has just begun

and the next grandmother of all bubbles (the "strength" of the UD-Dollar) has started to develop we have to live with bubbles but be aware that bubbles have a tendency to burst

Yes indeed Naam, and 3 or 4 years from now the U.S. Dollar bubble might very well burst just like the Euro and Pound bubbles are bursting currently, but it will be one heck of a ride while it happens I just saw the Pound trade at $1.62 and the Euro trade at $1.28, it is amazing at how quickly this whole thing is unraveling

[LaoPo]

Maybe some posters are happy with the fast rise of the Dollar..I'm not and the world economy is not.

Read this page's*** headlines about the decline of ALL currencies in the world, versus the dollar, and one can understand what's going on and what's wrong.

I wrote before that there is an enormous shortage of dollars due to the huge debts and interest payments and other obligations banks and institutions, hedge funds etc. have to pay (due to the gigantic losses, created by the worldwide crisis); those obligations are all in dollars which are now hard to get, hence the fast rise and over-expensive dollar.

It has nothing to do with the strength of the US economy or oil prices.

It's bad for the entire world that the dollar rises so fast and bad for the US as well as exports will slip dramatically; maybe it's good for US oil- and other imports but the economy and consumption is going down so imports are going down as well.

There is no escape for the US and many other countries to slip into a recession and what's the benefit for the US having an expensive dollar ?

For exporting countries an expensive dollar is also very bad, so all-in-all an expensive dollar is NO GOOD for the entire world.

*** http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

bubble: 400 billion DOLLARS are presently needed to settle the Lehman derivative bubble in Dollars. these Dollars have to be bought in the market against various currencies causing not all but definitely a part of the bubble.

That is partially true, but the fact that the BOE will be lowering rates again and the ECB will likely have to do the same, also has something to do with it, and then again there is the price of oil droping which Lanna seems to believe has nothing at all to do with the Dollars rise but it really does

[lannarebirth]

bubble: 400 billion DOLLARS are presently needed to settle the Lehman derivative bubble in Dollars. these Dollars have to be bought in the market against various currencies causing not all but definitely a part of the bubble.

That is partially true, but the fact that the BOE will be lowering rates again and the ECB will likely have to do the same, also has something to do with it, and then again there is the price of oil droping which Lanna seems to believe has nothing at all to do with the Dollars rise but it really does

No you've misrepresented my opinion Vic. I have no belief WHY anything might be happening. I don't care why too much. I only care about WHAT and WHEN. Richard Russell, who is a very bright man, has been talking about the rise that would come in the $USD for years when debt and deflationary forces kicked in. Hard to make money on "someday" events though. The truth is Vic, you have no idea where the $USD is going, when it will retrace, and what the depth and time period of that retracemnt means. Your "touchdown dancing" here is vulgar IMO and in no way aids anyone in making some money.

[VegasVic]

bubble: 400 billion DOLLARS are presently needed to settle the Lehman derivative bubble in Dollars. these Dollars have to be bought in the market against various currencies causing not all but definitely a part of the bubble.

That is partially true, but the fact that the BOE will be lowering rates again and the ECB will likely have to do the same, also has something to do with it, and then again there is the price of oil droping which Lanna seems to believe has nothing at all to do with the Dollars rise but it really does

No you've misrepresented my opinion Vic. I have no belief WHY anything might be happening. I don't care why too much. I only care about WHAT and WHEN. Richard Russell, who is a very bright man, has been talking about the rise that would come in the $USD for years when debt and deflationary forces kicked in. Hard to make money on "someday" events though. The truth is Vic, you have no idea where the $USD is going, when it will retrace, and what the depth and time period of that retracemnt means. Your "touchdown dancing" here is vulgar IMO and in no way aids anyone in making some money.

Ahh, but my suggestion to short Oil and Gold and go long the Dollar 4-5 months ago could have made many here lots of cash(if they only listened), and Dollars at that which makes it even better now As far as vulgarities are concerned, well my little "touchdown dancing" as you put it, pales in comparison to the vulgarities that I have seen repeatedly here on thaivisa in all the U.S. bashing that I have had to put up with whenever I log in here, so please pardon me for savoring the moment now that Oil, Gold, the euro and the Pound have come back to reality BTW I did not misrepresent your opinion, as you have posted on more than one occasion that the drop in Oil has nothing to do with the Dollars recent strength, go back and check your own posts if you think otherwise

[lannarebirth]

bubble: 400 billion DOLLARS are presently needed to settle the Lehman derivative bubble in Dollars. these Dollars have to be bought in the market against various currencies causing not all but definitely a part of the bubble.

That is partially true, but the fact that the BOE will be lowering rates again and the ECB will likely have to do the same, also has something to do with it, and then again there is the price of oil droping which Lanna seems to believe has nothing at all to do with the Dollars rise but it really does

No you've misrepresented my opinion Vic. I have no belief WHY anything might be happening. I don't care why too much. I only care about WHAT and WHEN. Richard Russell, who is a very bright man, has been talking about the rise that would come in the $USD for years when debt and deflationary forces kicked in. Hard to make money on "someday" events though. The truth is Vic, you have no idea where the $USD is going, when it will retrace, and what the depth and time period of that retracemnt means. Your "touchdown dancing" here is vulgar IMO and in no way aids anyone in making some money.

Ahh, but my suggestion to short Oil and Gold and go long the Dollar 4-5 months ago could have made many here lots of cash(if they only listened), and Dollars at that which makes it even better now As far as vulgarities are concerned, well my little "touchdown dancing" as you put it, pales in comparison to the vulgarities that I have seen repeatedly here on thaivisa in all the U.S. bashing that I have had to put up with whenever I log in here, so please pardon me for savoring the moment now that Oil, Gold, the euro and the Pound have come back to reality BTW I did not misrepresent your opinion, as you have posted on more than one occasion that the drop in Oil has nothing to do with the Dollars recent strength, go back and check your own posts if you think otherwise

You're not wrong about the boorish posts that accompanied the $USD slide Vic, but maybe you could take the higher path huh? I never forget that for most people these market moves ar of great import as they are expats and building homes and raising families. I think a better approach is to let people know "where we are at", as opposed to "where i said we were going". Because when people use REAL money Vic, they'd have lost it all on your short Gold in the 600's call and never would have made any money on the others. That's the way it works, unless we're just shooting the breeze.

I know the general consensus is that $USD and oil are linked, and it's true to the extent that EVERYTHING is linked to $USD. For the record, my opinion was oils rise and fall is linked tyo inappropriate derivatives positions and the subsequent unwinding of those positions.

[VegasVic]

bubble: 400 billion DOLLARS are presently needed to settle the Lehman derivative bubble in Dollars. these Dollars have to be bought in the market against various currencies causing not all but definitely a part of the bubble.

That is partially true, but the fact that the BOE will be lowering rates again and the ECB will likely have to do the same, also has something to do with it, and then again there is the price of oil droping which Lanna seems to believe has nothing at all to do with the Dollars rise but it really does

No you've misrepresented my opinion Vic. I have no belief WHY anything might be happening. I don't care why too much. I only care about WHAT and WHEN. Richard Russell, who is a very bright man, has been talking about the rise that would come in the $USD for years when debt and deflationary forces kicked in. Hard to make money on "someday" events though. The truth is Vic, you have no idea where the $USD is going, when it will retrace, and what the depth and time period of that retracemnt means. Your "touchdown dancing" here is vulgar IMO and in no way aids anyone in making some money.

Ahh, but my suggestion to short Oil and Gold and go long the Dollar 4-5 months ago could have made many here lots of cash(if they only listened), and Dollars at that which makes it even better now As far as vulgarities are concerned, well my little "touchdown dancing" as you put it, pales in comparison to the vulgarities that I have seen repeatedly here on thaivisa in all the U.S. bashing that I have had to put up with whenever I log in here, so please pardon me for savoring the moment now that Oil, Gold, the euro and the Pound have come back to reality BTW I did not misrepresent your opinion, as you have posted on more than one occasion that the drop in Oil has nothing to do with the Dollars recent strength, go back and check your own posts if you think otherwise

You're not wrong about the boorish posts that accompanied the $USD slide Vic, but maybe you could take the higher path huh? I never forget that for most people these market moves ar of great import as they are expats and building homes and raising families. I think a better approach is to let people know "where we are at", as opposed to "where i said we were going". Because when people use REAL money Vic, they'd have lost it all on your short Gold in the 600's call and never would have made any money on the others. That's the way it works, unless we're just shooting the breeze.

I know the general consensus is that $USD and oil are linked, and it's true to the extent that EVERYTHING is linked to $USD. For the record, my opinion was oils rise and fall is linked tyo inappropriate derivatives positions and the subsequent unwinding of those positions.

Lanna, If we are going to set the record straight then lets get it right!!! In late August of 2007 when the gold bugs were all claiming that gold would be $1500/ounce a year from then, I came out and argued with them said that I think that gold will be lower than it was (at that time $670/ounce) a year from that time, I never chided anyone to short Gold at that time! If you go back to the August 2008 posts you will see that I admitted that I was wrong in my exact one year prediction as gold had only come back down to around $750 so my bet would have been $80 off, whereas the gold bugs bet would have been $750 off. I stated much more emphatically that the SSE would lose over 50% (the PE ratios were not sustainable, something that lao po couldn't grasp) of its value before the Olympics at around the same time in 2007, but I don't see you mentioning that, how very objective of you The fact is that I did encourage readers here to short Oil and Gold time and time again in the late spring and early summer2008 when Oil was in the high $130's and Gold around $1000/ounce and I fought against the tide here and told everyone to go long the Dollar at the same time. As gold started down into the low $120's I posted multiple times that everyone still has a chance to short Oil and go long the Dollar, that its not too late! So once again if we are trying to set the record straight then by all means lets do it properly and not in a lao poish sort of way by cherry picking the facts that fit your conclusion

[lannarebirth]

That's what a call looks like Vic:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1877093

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1880067

When you're using real money and not just "rappin' on the net" , it's important to get the timing right. In this case, right year, right month, right day and right hour.

Anyway Vic, I hope you benefitted from your own calls, as I have from mine. Good day.

[PCA]

That's what a call looks like Vic:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1877093

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1880067

When you're using real money and not just "rappin' on the net" , it's important to get the timing right. In this case, right year, right month, right day and right hour.

Anyway Vic, I hope you benefitted from your own calls, as I have from mine. Good day.

absolutely! There are those who watch and those who act. Vic without a doubt is a watcher only. If that is not correct Vic then just show your trade tickets for oil and gold. I kind of find it disgusting to express bravour for the currency and commodity market developments when the vast majority of people who didnt ever participate in those plays get punished.

I asked Vic once if he ever left the $ when its depreciation was more than obvious but he didnt comment there as of course he was sitting this all out, right Vic?

[Naam]

bubble: 400 billion DOLLARS are presently needed to settle the Lehman derivative bubble in Dollars. these Dollars have to be bought in the market against various currencies causing not all but definitely a part of the bubble.

That is partially true, but the fact that the BOE will be lowering rates again and the ECB will likely have to do the same, also has something to do with it, and then again there is the price of oil droping which Lanna seems to believe has nothing at all to do with the Dollars rise but it really does

i don't like to make predictions Vic but i have the urge to bet my [not so] sweet àss on hirsute Benjamin Shalom lowering too

reason:

US Economics - Zero bound

* Three quarters of falling GDP...

* ...is likely to drive up the unemployment rate to 8%

On balance, however, overall conditions have turned nastier as the financial deleveraging wave continues to engulf the economy despite policy makers' efforts to jump-start lending, while negative wealth effects are set to re-intensify due to the most recent lurch down in stock prices (and probably house prices too). In addition, the recent run of economic information has been terrible, whether it be retail sales, building permits, the ISM manufacturing index, the Philly Fed index, or the anecdotal evidence in the Beige Book.

The poor September retail sales report, in particular, is cause for another cut in our Q3 consumption forecast from -1% to -3%. We are now looking for Q3 GDP to be -1%, versus our previous forecast of 0.3% published on 26 September in A Leaky TARP. But the biggest cut to growth is for Q4, where we have taken down real GDP to -2.2% from +1.0% previously. 2009 Q1 GDP is expected to be -0.5%, virtually the same as our previous forecast.

opinion of HSBC

[cloudhopper]

bubble: 400 billion DOLLARS are presently needed to settle the Lehman derivative bubble in Dollars. these Dollars have to be bought in the market against various currencies causing not all but definitely a part of the bubble.

That is partially true, but the fact that the BOE will be lowering rates again and the ECB will likely have to do the same, also has something to do with it, and then again there is the price of oil droping which Lanna seems to believe has nothing at all to do with the Dollars rise but it really does

i don't like to make predictions Vic but i have the urge to bet my [not so] sweet àss on hirsute Benjamin Shalom lowering too

reason:

US Economics - Zero bound

* Three quarters of falling GDP...

* ...is likely to drive up the unemployment rate to 8%

On balance, however, overall conditions have turned nastier as the financial deleveraging wave continues to engulf the economy despite policy makers' efforts to jump-start lending, while negative wealth effects are set to re-intensify due to the most recent lurch down in stock prices (and probably house prices too). In addition, the recent run of economic information has been terrible, whether it be retail sales, building permits, the ISM manufacturing index, the Philly Fed index, or the anecdotal evidence in the Beige Book.

The poor September retail sales report, in particular, is cause for another cut in our Q3 consumption forecast from -1% to -3%. We are now looking for Q3 GDP to be -1%, versus our previous forecast of 0.3% published on 26 September in A Leaky TARP. But the biggest cut to growth is for Q4, where we have taken down real GDP to -2.2% from +1.0% previously. 2009 Q1 GDP is expected to be -0.5%, virtually the same as our previous forecast.

opinion of HSBC

I bet all these numbers become relatively even worse in Europe though.

[Naam]

Vic, LRB, PCA;

let's not lower ourselves to boorish levels seen quite often on Thaivisa. i admit it is difficult not to rebuttal in case of personal attacks but i find it childish to use expressions "i told you so" et al without probable cause/reason. i have mentioned before that we all can learn from each other even though we might have different opinions and walk different ways to achieve our targets.

nevertheless, leg pulling (in a friendly manner) should be allowed when somebody leans out of the window too far, realises that he was wrong and tries to hide instead of admitting "yep, i was wrong but it was the dog, the cat, the wife, the girl/boyfriend who at that time influenced my logical thinking and that's why..."

on clowns, know-it-all, ignorants and the like one should hit hard when they spread false information which could hurt TV-members who seek advice here

excused are those who start (or end) their posting of false or misinterpreted information with the sentence "i have no fàcking idea but i think, believe, guess, conclude that..."

[Naam]

I bet all these numbers become relatively even worse in Europe though.

Europe is not a homogenous economy Cloudhopper, therefore generalisations do not apply. what happens in Spain, Poland or Italy does not necessarily happen in France, BeNeLux or Germany.

[LaoPo]

bubble: 400 billion DOLLARS are presently needed to settle the Lehman derivative bubble in Dollars. these Dollars have to be bought in the market against various currencies causing not all but definitely a part of the bubble.

That is partially true, but the fact that the BOE will be lowering rates again and the ECB will likely have to do the same, also has something to do with it, and then again there is the price of oil droping which Lanna seems to believe has nothing at all to do with the Dollars rise but it really does

i don't like to make predictions Vic but i have the urge to bet my [not so] sweet àss on hirsute Benjamin Shalom lowering too

reason:

US Economics - Zero bound

* Three quarters of falling GDP...

* ...is likely to drive up the unemployment rate to 8%

On balance, however, overall conditions have turned nastier as the financial deleveraging wave continues to engulf the economy despite policy makers' efforts to jump-start lending, while negative wealth effects are set to re-intensify due to the most recent lurch down in stock prices (and probably house prices too). In addition, the recent run of economic information has been terrible, whether it be retail sales, building permits, the ISM manufacturing index, the Philly Fed index, or the anecdotal evidence in the Beige Book.

The poor September retail sales report, in particular, is cause for another cut in our Q3 consumption forecast from -1% to -3%. We are now looking for Q3 GDP to be -1%, versus our previous forecast of 0.3% published on 26 September in A Leaky TARP. But the biggest cut to growth is for Q4, where we have taken down real GDP to -2.2% from +1.0% previously. 2009 Q1 GDP is expected to be -0.5%, virtually the same as our previous forecast.

opinion of HSBC

I bet all these numbers become relatively even worse in Europe though.

I'm sure, if you bet, you will come up with facts to prove so ?

NB: people are always talking about Europe as a whole; they shouldn't, because Europe is too diversified with so many countries and so many people (700 Million+) speaking more than 30 languages***

Look at this link and you see what I mean; there are many different Europe as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe

*** and most US people have blood running in their veins..... their ancestors coming from those countries....

LaoPo

[PeaceBlondie]

No argument from me, LaoPo. I recall the U S Census Bureau or the UN estimating that by any definition of Europe, four countries of Africa (combined) will have a larger population than all of Europe. Economically, however, places like Nigeria and Ethiopia are basket cases.

Speaking of Euro blood running through our veins, my ancestors have been on the western side of the Atlantic for so long, that we have no real idea where in Europe our ancestors started from.

[LaoPo]

No argument from me, LaoPo. I recall the U S Census Bureau or the UN estimating that by any definition of Europe, four countries of Africa (combined) will have a larger population than all of Europe. Economically, however, places like Nigeria and Ethiopia are basket cases.

Speaking of Euro blood running through our veins, my ancestors have been on the western side of the Atlantic for so long, that we have no real idea where in Europe our ancestors started from.

Let me bite... ...Bite, because it is such an interesting phenomenon: Europe

I'm interested which 4 African combined countries the Census Bureau or UN were talking about.

That was probably in the ''old'' days of the EU, although you mention "by any definition of Europe" and that's odd since Africa as a continent has a mere lower side of the 1 Billion people.

And Europe has a whole has now 825 Million people.

The ''old'' EU (European Union) countries, in 1960, however had some 400 Million and that was before it grew to the present 27 countries.

The so called EU-27 have a combined population of around 500 Million.

Still, PB, I can't think of any 4 combined African countries that had more then the EU 400 Million (1960) or the 500-600 Million of the whole of Europe (1960) or the present 825 million; can you ?

The present 5 (not 4) most Populous African countries are:

Egypt: 82 Million

South Africa: 49 Million

Nigeria: 146 Million

Tanzania: 40 Million

DR of Congo: 66 Million

= together 383 Million (at present); that number would have been a lot lower in 1960.

Sorry for slipping off topic but the main thing is that IF we -on Thaivisa- speak of Europe I suggest we speak of the European Union countries, the EU, in the future to avoid misunderstandings. The EU with it's 500 Million people; 27 countries and 23 official languages

Note for PB: your bloodline: that couldn't be much longer than 250-300 years...can it ? A long time nevertheless.

LaoPo