How Do You Think The Elections In Dec Will Go?

[PanzerJohn]

As the various parties start their campaigns for the Dec 23 elections I was wondering who is in the frame, and depending on the result,whats the chances of civil unrest again if the "wrong" side wins?. There seem to be a few of Toxins old mates pulling strings in the background, and if their people win would the Military allow them to rule? I think not.

[PhilHarries]

I am inclined to agree with you PJ. I can see the "wrong" party winning and thus the military finding the election flawed and, Burma style, announce "in the interests of state security and reconciliation" it should be annulled.

I sincerely hope we are both wrong.

[stateman]

As the various parties start their campaigns for the Dec 23 elections I was wondering who is in the frame, and depending on the result,whats the chances of civil unrest again if the "wrong" side wins?. There seem to be a few of Toxins old mates pulling strings in the background, and if their people win would the Military allow them to rule? I think not.

PP far ahead now.

How about this scenario .. ?

PP with the well oiled machinery lined up overwhelming votes prior to the election. N and NE folks happy with pockets well padded.

PP has some candidates banned for cheating, other law-breaking activities. End result party disbanded.

Dem moved to #1 spot instead.

PP's dark squad arrange for massive paid people power show of force.

Police establish passive defense line.

More people mobilized.

Military assist in the crack down.

Just a projection, subject to things changing course.

[Rinrada]

K Wife is already proclaiming a victory for Sami...but then she was always for Khun T..... ...me I cant VOTE ...so MPr

[Mosha]

My wife just says "Not my problem" I make no wonder they get the governments they get.

[Scott]

It's like dancing....two steps forward, one step back. Then turn around and do the same thing!

[Scott]

By the way, this dance is done to the march of a military band, I am afraid.

[pete_r]

As the various parties start their campaigns for the Dec 23 elections I was wondering who is in the frame, and depending on the result,whats the chances of civil unrest again if the "wrong" side wins?. There seem to be a few of Toxins old mates pulling strings in the background, and if their people win would the Military allow them to rule? I think not.

No matter, the military wins at the end.

[Spee]

As the various parties start their campaigns for the Dec 23 elections I was wondering who is in the frame, and depending on the result,whats the chances of civil unrest again if the "wrong" side wins?. There seem to be a few of Toxins old mates pulling strings in the background, and if their people win would the Military allow them to rule? I think not.

No matter, the military wins at the end.

There is always hope. If Mushariff in Pakistan can change, anyone can change. The thought of any military leadership "allowing" freely elected officials to govern (or not) is disgusting. Let's hope the Thai people will realize this sooner rather than later.

[Mosha]

Not sure if this is the right place, but any one here have a list of the parties ve numbers. I have seen 5,6,8. 5 Democratic party, I think but what about the others?

[Somtamnication]

There will be bloodshed. This country is just about ready to implode. Samak wins, there will be problems. Abhisit wins, there will be problems. Catch 22.

I was right about the coup 7 months before it happened, I will be right again about this one. Now, let's hear from the Thai apologists....

[chiang mai]

I think an article some while back in the Nation described it all best, don't recall who the quote came from: the North East votes people in and Bangkok votes them out, very true. To find the correct answer as to who will win in December, ask the Issan folks. Having said that I did some ray of hope recently when my MIL said she and her village would vote Democrat because Abhasit (sp) was handsome! The village is in Sukhothai by the way so not quite Issan.

[Jingthing]

I think Abhisit will probably win. He seems decent from what I can tell but they could elect Buddha for PM and he couldn't get much done under the new political realities. A thankless job now. So the fun ride will continue. Still don't really understand how the baht is doing as well as it has, and will get even stronger they say.

Why Abhisit? Good looks. Charisma. Name recognition. Talking the populist talk. He will sweep the south and Bangkok; probably enough to counter the north. Also coming from a party called democrat right now is a plus as I think most of the people do want to progress towards democracy now, so he has a good brand name for the moment.

Edited November 28, 2007 by Jingthing

[chanchao]

The result will be exactly what the military and their puppeteers intend: No outright majority, so an unstable coalition of self-serving egotistical dinosaurs backed by their regional mafia clans.

It actually doesn't matter a whole lot.. Because as we've seen last year, the true power in this country is not with the elected government or parliament. And with the military drafted constitution in place, that actually has in it that half the senate is APPOINTED, and that 2/3 majority is needed to amend the constitution..... the elections simply don't matter a whole lot, other than the minor issue of which pig faced buffoon gets the next go at the trough. Will be either one who looks like a pig faced buffoon on the outside, or one who is a pig faced buffoon (and a traitor to democracy) on the inside. (Abhisit)

I'm still as pessimistic as I was the day after the coup.

Edited November 28, 2007 by chanchao

[Chloe82]

I think Abhisit will probably win. He seems decent from what I can tell but they could elect Buddha for PM and he couldn't get much done under the new political realities. A thankless job now. So the fun ride will continue. Still don't really understand how the baht is doing as well as it has, and will get even stronger they say.

Why Abhisit? Good looks. Charisma. Name recognition. Talking the populist talk. He will sweep the south and Bangkok; probably enough to counter the north. Also coming from a party called democrat right now is a plus as I think most of the people do want to progress towards democracy now, so he has a good brand name for the moment.

I hope your correct in your prediction of an Abhisit win, he certainly seems the most decent and has some good ideas.

[Abrak]

In a lot of elections in the past the 'incumbent' (which is the coup leaders) have had enormous 'influence' on the result.

On the basis of this, I reckon it will go Aphisit's way - namely I think that the coup leaders will have done their homework.

Banharn appears to be there to back him up - he will probably be needed.

I have no idea what will actually happen in this country if there is a Samak victory.

[jbowman1993]

How do I think it will go?

PPP will win around 180 seats

Democrats will take around 150

Chart Thai 30-40

Puea Pandin 30-40

other parties will take a handful here and there.

Despite the the fact that the PPP will have the most seats, Chart Thai and Motherland will form a coalition with Democrats. Apisit will be the next PM. The prosecutions of Thaksin will go forward, his money will eventually get seized, his popularity (Sans $$) will disappear, and the good ship Thailand will go merrily on its way.

[Prakanong]

How do I think it will go?

PPP will win around 180 seats

Democrats will take around 150

Chart Thai 30-40

Puea Pandin 30-40

other parties will take a handful here and there.

Despite the the fact that the PPP will have the most seats, Chart Thai and Motherland will form a coalition with Democrats. Apisit will be the next PM. The prosecutions of Thaksin will go forward, his money will eventually get seized, his popularity (Sans $) will disappear, and the good ship Thailand will go merrily on its way.

So Thaksin is without money now is he?

He had to show plenty for Man City that was not in Thailand did he not

Maybe he is bluffing too though about the 50 million GBP for transfers in January too

[dr_Pat_Pong]

How do I think it will go?

PPP will win around 180 seats

Democrats will take around 150

Chart Thai 30-40

Puea Pandin 30-40

other parties will take a handful here and there.

Despite the the fact that the PPP will have the most seats, Chart Thai and Motherland will form a coalition with Democrats. Apisit will be the next PM. The prosecutions of Thaksin will go forward, his money will eventually get seized, his popularity (Sans $$) will disappear, and the good ship Thailand will go merrily on its way.

I think you are right on the money.

[PadThaiGuy]

A majority will vote for PPP but the Junta fixes the election.

[jbowman1993]

How do I think it will go?

PPP will win around 180 seats

Democrats will take around 150

Chart Thai 30-40

Puea Pandin 30-40

other parties will take a handful here and there.

Despite the the fact that the PPP will have the most seats, Chart Thai and Motherland will form a coalition with Democrats. Apisit will be the next PM. The prosecutions of Thaksin will go forward, his money will eventually get seized, his popularity (Sans $) will disappear, and the good ship Thailand will go merrily on its way.

So Thaksin is without money now is he?

He had to show plenty for Man City that was not in Thailand did he not

Maybe he is bluffing too though about the 50 million GBP for transfers in January too

Sorry, let me be more specific. The money that has already been frozen (i.e. 65 Billion sitting in Thai Banks) will most likely be seized. Chances of Thaksin ever returning to Thailand? Nil. Those recent charges that have been forwarded from the ASC to the Attorney General are the real killer ones (i.e. corruption associated with his holdings and his manipulation of the country's laws for his own benefit). Of course he still has money... But the money that would serve as a major influencing factor IN THAILAND is the money I was refering too.

Also, in regards to all your soccer talk. As a Yank, when you start talking soccer, all I hear it blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. You might as well not be talking at all, lol.

[jbowman1993]

How do I think it will go?

PPP will win around 180 seats

Democrats will take around 150

Chart Thai 30-40

Puea Pandin 30-40

other parties will take a handful here and there.

Despite the the fact that the PPP will have the most seats, Chart Thai and Motherland will form a coalition with Democrats. Apisit will be the next PM. The prosecutions of Thaksin will go forward, his money will eventually get seized, his popularity (Sans $$) will disappear, and the good ship Thailand will go merrily on its way.

I think you are right on the money.

Thanks Dr. PP. High praise!