Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[jumnien]

It would be interesting to be in Sonthi's mind right now down at EC headquarters!

[hammered]

Thanks, great news!

You think it's good news? I think it's terrible news- the PPP has enough challenges facing it that it needn't be burdened with jealous whores. We can forget a serious auditing of the military expenditures too, I fear. Banharn has been just as acquiescent of the coup and its makers as Abhisit.

Well it looks like the endgame although with the kind of things that happen in Thai politics anything could still result. It certainly doesnt look like the words rerconcilliation and stability are going to be part of it all though. In the menatime Im going to get on with my iduiotic suggestion of a government of national reconcilliation with PPP and Dems and no silly little parties Thats the beauty of free speech

And for a limited time- and with specific agreed upon agenda- (not something so vague as 'national reconciliation)- I second your proposal. Now we just have to stamp it and mail it in.

I also agree with that. But Blaze nobody is going to agree with a couple of dam_n fools like us.

Happy New Year

[ando]

Thanks, great news!

You think it's good news? I think it's terrible news- the PPP has enough challenges facing it that it needn't be burdened with jealous whores. We can forget a serious auditing of the military expenditures too, I fear. Banharn has been just as acquiescent of the coup and its makers as Abhisit.

Well it looks like the endgame although with the kind of things that happen in Thai politics anything could still result. It certainly doesnt look like the words rerconcilliation and stability are going to be part of it all though. In the menatime Im going to get on with my iduiotic suggestion of a government of national reconcilliation with PPP and Dems and no silly little parties Thats the beauty of free speech

And for a limited time- and with specific agreed upon agenda- (not something so vague as 'national reconciliation)- I second your proposal. Now we just have to stamp it and mail it in.

I also agree with that. But Blaze nobody is going to agree with a couple of dam_n fools like us.

Happy New Year

Sounds like a good idea to me too.

However, even if the two big parties could agree to cooperate, I think the generals would prevent it with another coup as it would surely not be in their interests. Then again if the idea gained enough public momentum, it might be hard to stop.

Certainly a better idea than having blokes in uniform taking over the government by force every few years.

[phayao]

Can anybody give me an insight into Samak's background?

Was he a military man? A police officer? Has he any university degrees? Has he studied abroad?

I've tried Wikipedia and other sources and I've got very little, except that he started his political career in the Democrat Party and that he's been in Thai politics for over 40 years now!

Happy New Year !

[ando]

Can anybody give me an insight into Samak's background?

Was he a military man? A police officer? Has he any university degrees? Has he studied abroad?

I've tried Wikipedia and other sources and I've got very little, except that he started his political career in the Democrat Party and that he's been in Thai politics for over 40 years now!

Happy New Year !

http://bangkokpundit.blogspot.com/2007/08/...-appointed.html

[Nudee]

Can anybody give me an insight into Samak's background?

Was he a military man? A police officer? Has he any university degrees? Has he studied abroad?

I've tried Wikipedia and other sources and I've got very little, except that he started his political career in the Democrat Party and that he's been in Thai politics for over 40 years now!

Happy New Year !

He has fooled BKKian once several years ago when he ran for BKK Mayor. He though he could fool BKKian again this time.

[hammered]

Thanks, great news!

You think it's good news? I think it's terrible news- the PPP has enough challenges facing it that it needn't be burdened with jealous whores. We can forget a serious auditing of the military expenditures too, I fear. Banharn has been just as acquiescent of the coup and its makers as Abhisit.

Well it looks like the endgame although with the kind of things that happen in Thai politics anything could still result. It certainly doesnt look like the words rerconcilliation and stability are going to be part of it all though. In the menatime Im going to get on with my iduiotic suggestion of a government of national reconcilliation with PPP and Dems and no silly little parties Thats the beauty of free speech

And for a limited time- and with specific agreed upon agenda- (not something so vague as 'national reconciliation)- I second your proposal. Now we just have to stamp it and mail it in.

I also agree with that. But Blaze nobody is going to agree with a couple of dam_n fools like us.

Happy New Year

Sounds like a good idea to me too.

However, even if the two big parties could agree to cooperate, I think the generals would prevent it with another coup as it would surely not be in their interests. Then again if the idea gained enough public momentum, it might be hard to stop.

Certainly a better idea than having blokes in uniform taking over the government by force every few years.

It would enable the politicians to actually take back the country and to prepare for an election together that both big parties would accept as fair and then not leave things open to all kinds of interpretation. It would also enable constitutional change to be made that had the support of most of the voting public etc etc

No it'll never happen.

[marshbags]

17.33 via channel 3 ( Thai )

Banhan says the party will announce it,s decision on Jan 2 cnd. if they will or will not be jioning forces with the PPP.

He clearly stated they have not yet made any sort of a decision and they are still discussing their options, ect.

* Samak was on just after this, inviting anyone who wishes to do so and they are welcome to join them. ??????

* He didn,t look like he,d already got the situation won. ??????

Looks like more than a few are, including the press, are a bit premature according to the above * marked observations by myself.

Then there is Banhan,s statement to add to it.

Samaks obvious tone when he spoke to the press / news channels wasn,t exactly celebratory....

marshbags

Add to this a few more reds and the situation could change very quickly for the PPP.

Edited December 31, 2007 by marshbags

[Nudee]

* Samak was on just after this, inviting anyone who wishes to do so and they are welcome to join them. ??????

* He didn,t look like he,d already got the situation won. ??????

2007 Popular vote

Democrat 14,084,265

PPP 14,071,799

Who said Samak (or Thaksin to be precise) won the election?

[John K]

"Meanwhile, Veera Somkhamkid of the People's Network against Corruption said he had filed a complaint with the EC asking it to dissolve the PPP for allegedly being a nominee for the dissolved Thai Rak Thai party. He said he testified on Dec 27 before a panel looking into the PPP's distribution of VCDs featuring Mr Thaksin during the election campaign."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/31Dec2007_news10.php

It will be interesting to see what happens next. There is a lot at play in the legal arena. How this will ulitmately end is anyone's guess.

OK here is probably my last post before I wonder off into the evening.

Samaksin is in a big rush to make an announcement about his quote Coalition unquote. Straight out of the idiom book ‘He is counting his chickens before they are hatched.’ There are a lot of things going on that could take out the PPP/TRT/ Thaksin group.

The reason for the rush is to make the EC look very bad if they decide to administer a fatal wound, and not make it look self induced.

If you go back you will find some news clippings that quote members of the EC saying than any involvement of club 111 will place an end to the party. Directly after that the members of club 111 made their exit as they had more to lose if they stayed.

Thaksin however has nothing to lose and clearly everything to gain. So if the PPP is dissolved Thaksin is no worse off than he is now because the PPP is not actually in power yet. However the members of the PPP will have just discovered what it is like to dance with the devil, and the membership of club 111 is likely to go up.

All the trips to visit Thaksin in Hong Kong are open admission of his involvement and violation of the ruling. The PPP seems to think that after the election it is OK to show Thaksin’s involvement. The answer to that is yes, starting in another 4.5 years that is.

Knowing Thaksin, using people is exactly what he does. If the PPP was not linked to Thaksin, I doubt they would be so arrogant and bold.

I have just one word.... WAIT.

[hilly]

"Meanwhile, Veera Somkhamkid of the People's Network against Corruption said he had filed a complaint with the EC asking it to dissolve the PPP for allegedly being a nominee for the dissolved Thai Rak Thai party. He said he testified on Dec 27 before a panel looking into the PPP's distribution of VCDs featuring Mr Thaksin during the election campaign."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/31Dec2007_news10.php

It will be interesting to see what happens next. There is a lot at play in the legal arena. How this will ulitmately end is anyone's guess.

OK here is probably my last post before I wonder off into the evening.

Samaksin is in a big rush to make an announcement about his quote Coalition unquote. Straight out of the idiom book ‘He is counting his chickens before they are hatched.’ There are a lot of things going on that could take out the PPP/TRT/ Thaksin group.

The reason for the rush is to make the EC look very bad if they decide to administer a fatal wound, and not make it look self induced.

If you go back you will find some news clippings that quote members of the EC saying than any involvement of club 111 will place an end to the party. Directly after that the members of club 111 made their exit as they had more to lose if they stayed.

Thaksin however has nothing to lose and clearly everything to gain. So if the PPP is dissolved Thaksin is no worse off than he is now because the PPP is not actually in power yet. However the members of the PPP will have just discovered what it is like to dance with the devil, and the membership of club 111 is likely to go up.

All the trips to visit Thaksin in Hong Kong are open admission of his involvement and violation of the ruling. The PPP seems to think that after the election it is OK to show Thaksin’s involvement. The answer to that is yes, starting in another 4.5 years that is.

Knowing Thaksin, using people is exactly what he does. If the PPP was not linked to Thaksin, I doubt they would be so arrogant and bold.

I have just one word.... WAIT.

Good post IMHO and this could still go either way. If Chart Thai were so certain they were joining PPP I reckon they would have done so by now but if they do they break the promise they made to go with the Democrats who did not contest several of Chart Thais seats to give them a clear run. Same goes to a lesser extent for Pua Pandin who said they would stick with Chart Thai. If we have a few more red and yellow cards and one more small party changes it's mind then the Democrats might still do it but I am not holding my breath for that.

[hilly]

* Samak was on just after this, inviting anyone who wishes to do so and they are welcome to join them. ??????

* He didn,t look like he,d already got the situation won. ??????

2007 Popular vote

Democrat 14,084,265

PPP 14,071,799

Who said Samak (or Thaksin to be precise) won the election?

Not sure where those figures came from but if true then the senate seats seem to be divided up wrongly with PPP have one more that the Democrats. Tell us more please.

[marshbags]

* Samak was on just after this, inviting anyone who wishes to do so and they are welcome to join them. ??????

* He didn,t look like he,d already got the situation won. ??????

2007 Popular vote

Democrat 14,084,265

PPP 14,071,799

Who said Samak (or Thaksin to be precise) won the election?

Not sure where those figures came from but if true then the senate seats seem to be divided up wrongly with PPP have one more that the Democrats. Tell us more please.

I cannot answer for Nudee but i was lead to believe they had a one seat difference with the PPP 34 Democrats 33

Once the expected red cards kick in, this could make a difference

Just for easy reference :-

Constituency

...........................................Votes..........%...... ...Seats

People's Power Party.........26,293,456....36.63........192**

Democrat Party.................21,745,696....30.30........132

Proportional

.............................................Votes.............%.....Seats.........TOTAL

People's Power Party.............14,071,799.....39.60.....34.............226

Democrat Party.....................14,084,265......39.63.....33.............165

marshbags

Edited December 31, 2007 by marshbags

[Nudee]

* Samak was on just after this, inviting anyone who wishes to do so and they are welcome to join them. ??????

* He didn,t look like he,d already got the situation won. ??????

2007 Popular vote

Democrat 14,084,265

PPP 14,071,799

Who said Samak (or Thaksin to be precise) won the election?

Not sure where those figures came from but if true then the senate seats seem to be divided up wrongly with PPP have one more that the Democrats. Tell us more please.

It's the way this new constitution divides the country into 8 zones and the seat in each zone is computed by proportional vote in 'each' zone and that's why Democrat got 1 seat lower while it received more votes! I believe it's the same situation with the US's Al Gore in the last election. And you will never heard Taksin and the gang mention this fact :-)

Zone 1

People Power Party 2,198,254 5 (6.3%)

Democrat Party 1,622,139 4 (5.0%)

Zone 2

People Power Party 1,784,290 5 (6.3%)

Democrat Party 1,239,555 3 (3.8%)

Zone 3

People Power Party 2,672,937 7 (8.8%)

Democrat Party 505,025 2 (2.5%)

Zone 4

People Power Party 2,275,271 6 (7.5%)

Democrat Party 650,800 2 (2.5%)

Zone 5

Democrat Party 3,050,591 4 (5.0%)

People Power Party 2,262,609 3 (3.8%)

Zone 6

Democrat Party 1,346,921 5 (6.3%)

People Power Party 1,119,669 4 (5.0%)

Zone 7

Democrat Party 2,349,225 5 (6.3%)

People Power Party 1,413,656 3 (3.8%)

Zone 8

Democrat Party 3,320,009 8 (10.0%)

People Power Party 345,113 1 (1.3%)

Democrat 14,084,265 <- 33 seats

PPP 14,071,799 <- 34 seats

See popular vote here

http://203.150.244.10/reports/eng/

Edited December 31, 2007 by Nudee

[thaigene2]

Appologies if this has been posted already. I just saw this BBC Website analysis of the present situation. It mentions Prem and the monarchy, but I assume it's fine since it's been there sinc e the 28th (Dec), and I had no porblem downloading it. It is from Jonathan Head who's usually pretty spot on as far as I can tell about Thailand's pro-anti-Thaksin mess. But I reckon the aristocrats and upper-middle-classes must hate his reports, because he points the spotlight at them as trying to upset democracy. Anyway - the link is here> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7162774.stm

[Nudee]

Appologies if this has been posted already. I just saw this BBC Website analysis of the present situation. It mentions Prem and the monarchy, but I assume it's fine since it's been there sinc e the 28th (Dec), and I had no porblem downloading it. It is from Jonathan Head who's usually pretty spot on as far as I can tell about Thailand's pro-anti-Thaksin mess. But I reckon the aristocrats and upper-middle-classes must hate his reports, because he points the spotlight at them as trying to upset democracy. Anyway - the link is here> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7162774.stm

I think Jonathan analysed it well (by gathering info from Thai newspapers) except one thing. He (intentionally?) skipped to mention about all corruption cases against Thaksin (which is the main cause people here, in power or not, wanted to kick him out of the kingdom). Democracy thing is just what Thaksin and his gang used to hide themselve and scare people. I believe majority of people in Thailand, like it or not, commonly agreed since 1932 to go the democracy way. This is the ghost Taksin and his gang tried to scare people that someone will turn Thailand away from democracy and back to monarchy day again.

And you think 14 million votes Democrat received this time is from "upper-middle-class" ?

It's all about Thaksin's propaganda to make believe that the royal family and military wanted to kick him out because he will make poor people rich (in 6 years!). Only idiots can believe his propaganda.

oh! I saw many "farang" here fall into his trap also. Not sure because they have "Isan" wife or what.

Edited December 31, 2007 by Nudee

[jumnien]

Looks like the Dems won almost 10-1 in the Muslim south. Popular here on ThaiVisa, too. Sonthi's probably wondering why he didn't give farang the right to vote!

[seonai]

The Muslim south has just kicked off with another bomb in Narathiwat

[jumnien]

Those Dems don't take these election losses easily, do they?

[abdulrahman]

Only idiots can believe his propaganda.

oh! I saw many "farang" here fall into his trap also. Not sure because they have "Isan" wife or what.

No need to have an Isaan wife to be an idiot.It helps,maybe?My wife is from Tabo!

[gregb]

My wife came up with an interesting scenario this afternoon.

Notice that there were only 4 parties at the PPP press conference, giving them a very slim majority. A few more red cards and that majority will disappear, hence Samak's rush to declare a coalition before it vanishes.

Despite the rhetoric, no one else has actually stated conclusively that they will join up with the PPP. If it should happen that enough red cards are issued that the PPP can not form a government, and the parties that sided with the PPP can not now have a change of heart and side with the Democrats to form a government, guess what happens?

Answer: Surayud gets to keep his post until a brand new election is scheduled, which could be anytime in the indefinite future. Anyone else think that the military may be playing both ends against the middle?

Not sure how much credence I give to it, but an intriguing analysis in any case.

Thoughts?

[Tony Clifton]

One thing is for sure, right from the very beginning of it`s existence PPP associated and cooperated openly with many of the banned 111 and openly with Thaksin as well. They ignored rulings as usual and will throw the usual fit when found guilty. No punishment has been handed out yet in order to save the New Year celebrations of a repeat from last year. Expect more whining and bangs now that the holidays are over and once the red cards start flying, then you`ll clearly see which group was responsible for last year`s blasts.

''It's not faiiiiiiiiiiiiir!''

Edited December 31, 2007 by Tony Clifton

[John K]

My wife came up with an interesting scenario this afternoon.

Notice that there were only 4 parties at the PPP press conference, giving them a very slim majority. A few more red cards and that majority will disappear, hence Samak's rush to declare a coalition before it vanishes.

Despite the rhetoric, no one else has actually stated conclusively that they will join up with the PPP. If it should happen that enough red cards are issued that the PPP can not form a government, and the parties that sided with the PPP can not now have a change of heart and side with the Democrats to form a government, guess what happens?

Answer: Surayud gets to keep his post until a brand new election is scheduled, which could be anytime in the indefinite future. Anyone else think that the military may be playing both ends against the middle?

Not sure how much credence I give to it, but an intriguing analysis in any case.

Thoughts?

One thing is certain, if the PPP go down it is by their own hand. Whoever picks up the pieces is incidental. The other thing that is certain if the PPP go down in whole or in part you will hear more of “It’s not fair.” that whining and crying they have is so immature. To be honest I am pressed to recall hearing it from any other adults anytime in my life.

[rainman]

No need to have an Isaan wife to be an idiot.It helps,maybe?My wife is from Tabo!

Haven't heard of Tabo until you wrote it. Is that where racists come from? Or you don't need to be from Tabo to be a racist?

[rainman]

By the way, what I find funny here is everyone crying for democracy and calling Thaksin a dictator is not able to accept what the Thai people have voted for - Thaksin and his PPP. What kind of democrats are you guys if you can't even accept what the people have chosen?

[John K]

By the way, what I find funny here is everyone crying for democracy and calling Thaksin a dictator is not able to accept what the Thai people have voted for - Thaksin and his PPP. What kind of democrats are you guys if you can't even accept what the people have chosen?

I always saw this as a Thai choice and will accept whatever outcome as long as it was by the rules, after all it is their country. If the PPP won without vote buying and involving the banned 111 I would not have anything to say. Seeing is that appears not to be the case, the wear and tear on my keyboard will continue.

[rainman]

You're right, the PPP is backed by Thaksin and the 111 banned members. Nobody is disputing that. But you also have to remember that TRT was banned by a military regime that did the coup. You be the judge how legit that was. While they may have brought charges against some of the 111 banned members, surely they have not brought charges against all 111 of the,. How 'democratic' is that?

Vote buying occurred on both sides. But if the PPP won the majority even after they had the vote-buying involved members disqualified, we have to respect that.

[John K]

You're right, the PPP is backed by Thaksin and the 111 banned members. Nobody is disputing that. But you also have to remember that TRT was banned by a military regime that did the coup. You be the judge how legit that was. While they may have brought charges against some of the 111 banned members, surely they have not brought charges against all 111 of the,. How 'democratic' is that?

Vote buying occurred on both sides. But if the PPP won the majority even after they had the vote-buying involved members disqualified, we have to respect that.

Actually you are in error on that assumption. The Constitutional Tribunal is not controlled by the military, it never was with this coup. Go back in this thread a few pages and you will find the information you seek.

In short all the junta did was keep Thaksin from being too powerful to stop. The last order Thaksin gave before he left was to move his class 10 buddies (back) into posts that were key to controlling the military.

A quick history lesson; Sonthi moved class 10 out of key positions about 4 or 5 months before the regular shuffle. In reply when questioned, Thaksin came out and said it is up to the military where they move people. But Thaksin decided to renege on that and move them anyway where he wanted them. That move was to be done around September 20, 2006 or so. At that point nothing short of assassination could stop Thaksin as every element of Thailand would have been under his control except the Monarchy. That is the definition of a dictatorship and not the division of power as in a democracy.

So back to your point, the junta was out of the loop on banning the TRT, that was in the works at least 3 months before the coup. Just because the Tribunal’s ruling was partially what the junta wanted, it does not mean the junta decided it. The ruling took all afternoon and part of the evening to read, and the evidence was unmistakable and it all was before the coup.

The Constitutional Tribunal is made up of the head judges from each branch of the courts as I recall. They are also the most respected judges in Thailand.

The junta seems to be getting the blame for a lot of things it never did.

[Tony Clifton]

Rainman, it started going downhill for the TRT when the Election Commissioners, still while under Thaksin, were found to be ignoring their own subcommittee's recommendations and findings , were found guilty and jailed, before the coup.

[jumnien]

Sounds like a lot of folks have been drinking the junta's kool-aid and enjoying every drop!