Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[baanthale]

Challenge

Can I challenge all you wonderful political pros out there to explain exactly and precisely what the current situation is/might be in Thai politics in one small paragraph - no more than 9 lines. For people like me who understand a certain amount and am familliar with names but find reading through 70 pages quite hard. Pleeeeeze

Easy, this is what happend so far,

Military took over the country and raped the economi, changed constitution till what ever fitted them.

PPP won the election in Thailand as most people voted for them (democracy). The military powers and some others are not happy with that ( because it's the poor peoples voice again), and there for try to, with what ever they can to disqualify this election and ppp. Reason being, the rich Thai's are not interested to share the country's welth with the poor. South and middle of Thailand do not want to pay any taxes witch will bennefit people in the north and east, that's a basic explaination of what's up!

We heard from some people here that poor uneduceted peoples votes should not be counted, as they do not understand politics of Thailand. So why in h-ll did not the democrats spend some money on education for the poor when they had their chances for so many years in power before Thaksin??

thats, 9 lines!

I think it's just redicoulus to hear this farangs who has been living here since 2003 or 2004, knowing everything, but seems to not have a clue about Thai politics before Thaksin, you should not have an opinion as you do not have all the facts (or maybe in some cases you do not want to see all facts).

[Prakanong]

.... the elite and even Bangkok itself has become predominantly a Sino Thai grouping with limited cultural affiliation with the Thai majority except in the master-servant relationship (using that term in the broadest sense). One doesn't want to overstress this latter aspect since Thailand has managed this so much better than its regional neighbours, but to ignore it would be to neglect the full picture.

that's a good point !

just enough to look in Wiki names of Thai former prime-ministers, generals, statesmen, magnates, politicians - and most of them if not all are said to belong to that very group you've mentioned !

I've read and heard this more than once before that it is this group which stalls or slows down self-awareness and practically any education or development of the rest of (normal or actual) Thais.

that actually explains a lot: it is not simply class struggle so to say - it is also an ethnic thing. and to deny or ignore it is illogical.

same as if one would try to deny that in the South it is also ethnic problem, not only religious.

Yeah the Thai's might not have been colonised from without but they have been totally taken over from within and the daft buggers can not see that!

I also gfind it amusing the obsessive compulsive and:Thaksinita's on here can be fixated with this guy so much but do not seem to comment on the total abhorance of the likes of Chalerm and Samak - Thaksin just might be in a bit of bother in a western democracy like they know back home but these two would be nowhere near politics.

[Prakanong]

"I think it's just redicoulus to hear this farangs who has been living here since 2003 or 2004, knowing everything, but seems to not have a clue about Thai politics before Thaksin, you should not have an opinion as you do not have all the facts (or maybe in some cases you do not want to see all facts)."

You noticed too - the best is some of them do not even try to hide it when they make glaring mistakes they are so brass necked.

One of them even told someone else he was a newbie and should read more on Thai history which I found gut bustingingly funny.

[Plus]

Breif summary - it's very simple.

Thaksin set up a proxy party, PPP, that got most votes in elections but fell short of a majority. Now it has difficulties in negotiation with coalition partners because they don't agree on their pro-Thaksin agenda.

In the meantime the Election Commission is busy tidying up the list of elected MPs, they need to endorse 95% (456 seats) by next week. All the parties are waiting for that final list - the might gain or lose bargaining power. The death of the Princess Galyani has also put the country on hold, at least officially.

The EC also came across two difficult cases that could lead to dissolution of PPP and Chart Thai (third size party). If they act on evidence and parties are dissolved, there will be chaos. If they don't, there will be chaos.

Most likely the final settlement will be left to the judicial system and take months.

Whatever happens, there will be no stable government for the foreseeable future.

>>>

I think no one would dispute the above.

[chownah]

Seonai,

1. PPP won the most representatives but they need another party to join them to have a majority.

2. The Election Commission has charged many of the elected people with buying votes and other illegal election related activities and are in the process of ruling on who is guilty which means that depending on the severity of what they did either their party must field a different candidate or their party will not be allowed to field a candidtate at all in the election which will be held sometime soon to fill the vacancies created by the disqualifications.

3. If enough candidates are disqualified the gov't can not be formed until auxiliary elections are held to fill the minimum number of seats required.

3.a. If enough PPP candidates are disqualified it might be impossible for them to get a majority even if all the other minor parties join them...in theory if enough PPP candidates are disqualified then it might be that only the Democrats would have the ability to get a majority if minor parties join them. I have not done the numbers to see if this is actually possible given the situation in this particular election but it is at least a theoretic possibility.

4. There are charges being investigated which could lead to the dissolution of the PPP entirely in which case another general election will have to be called.

5. Even the Democrats don't want the process to have to go to another election...at least that is what they say right now...of course they could change their minds as things develop.

6. I think thats the basics...I'm sure others will fill in whatever I've left out.

7. I've tried to be non-partisan in this and have left out any issues relating to value judgements on the parties, their members, and their actions....seems like I might be the only one here capable of this....don't know.

Chownah

Edited January 12, 2008 by chownah

[Plus]

...the elite and its hangers on feel it has the right to block or veto the majority's legitimate aspirations.

Yet there hasn't been a single time in recent history when they actually ACTED on those alleged feelings. I'm typing this for the third time - Bangkok accepted widely unpopular Chavalit government in 1996, no one protested against Thaksin in 2000. People were disgusted with 2001 court ruling in his favour but they accepted it, too.

There is a culture of accepting majority's decision against all personal feelings.

In 2006 it wasn't just elite and hangers on who ousted Thaksin - nearly half the country wanted him to go. The coup had no chance of success without popular support.

And here's another argument against - there isn't a single individual in the whole country who publicly opposes PPPs attempts to form the government, yet you talk about existence of a "culture".

Have you got this idea from Samak who hinted at the dirty invisible hand? Great source.

This alleged intereference by "elites" in the current situation has very little evidence. They have no say in how EC runs its investigations (hard to believe they have, after EC has simply fired an investigator for apparent anti-PPP bias). They have no idea how things might turn out in courts several months later. They don't seem to put any pressure or offer anything to political parties to keep them from joining PPP, even the ones they allegedly set up themselves.

So far it appears that they simply sit on their dirty hands and watch how PPP makes a complete ass out of itself. At best they asked the Special Branch Police to send a video to the EC. Do you think they should have kept it? Do you think the chaos of PPP dissolution serves them any purpose? Do you think they want another chance at running the government after Sorayud's poor performance?

And why should they worry at all? More than 60% of Thais voted against their arch enemy Thaksin. They have support of the people, no matter what PPP tries to do.

There is also, in all honesty, a rarely mentioned but valid ethnic dimension in that the elite and even Bangkok itself has become predominantly a Sino Thai grouping with limited cultural affiliation with the Thai majority

Have you noticed that your "Thai" majority from Isan (where they don't even speak Thai) is repesented by the same Sino Thais in politics? And those same Sino Thais who represent your alleged "Thai" majority have a hard going in Central provinces, the rice bowl, the heartland, people who traditionally set up standards of Thainess, while the other Sino Thais, like Banharn, have kept the area under control for decades now.

Thie ethnic dimenstion has near zero pecent influence on current situation. The confilct is mostly about one man's ambition, income gap issue is overrated, he would have just as easily created and exploited private sector-bureacracy conflict if it served his purposes. In fact that what got him middle class support in 2000.

The real conflict between social classes is still in the making, if left unadressed by opportunists like Thaksin it still has many years to mature to political representation.

[Lilawadee]

I think no one would dispute the above.

Indeed I don't.. I'm amazed!

[Prakanong]

"n 2006 it wasn't just elite and hangers on who ousted Thaksin - nearly half the country wanted him to go.n 2006"

Nah - if Thaksin was allowed in and allowed to stand you know he would win a majority hands down.

[Plus]

"n 2006 it wasn't just elite and hangers on who ousted Thaksin - nearly half the country wanted him to go.n 2006"

Nah - if Thaksin was allowed in and allowed to stand you know he would win a majority hands down.

His problems, and the ones that came before him (Chavalit), had nothing to do with the number of votes.

You can search this News forum far and wide and among thousands of allegations against Thaksin there isn't a single charge that he is unfit because he was elected by "stupids".

Secretly running his business at the expense of the state's interests is illegal no matter how many votes you get. And ANY court should have dissolved TRT for April 2006 election fraud. And I don't see anyone here disputing that TRT was Thaksin's personal vehicle.

It's all about one man. PPP sans Thaksin would have no problems forming a government whatsoever. I also think that it wouldn't win so many votes without him, but I don't really care how many votes they'd get on their policies alone.

You can't talk about social divide, can't talk about social upheaval by the poor that is pinned on one person, especially if that person is the richest man in the country.

[Prakanong]

"n 2006 it wasn't just elite and hangers on who ousted Thaksin - nearly half the country wanted him to go.n 2006"

Nah - if Thaksin was allowed in and allowed to stand you know he would win a majority hands down.

His problems, and the ones that came before him (Chavalit), had nothing to do with the number of votes.

You can search this News forum far and wide and among thousands of allegations against Thaksin there isn't a single charge that he is unfit because he was elected by "stupids".

Secretly running his business at the expense of the state's interests is illegal no matter how many votes you get. And ANY court should have dissolved TRT for April 2006 election fraud. And I don't see anyone here disputing that TRT was Thaksin's personal vehicle.

It's all about one man. PPP sans Thaksin would have no problems forming a government whatsoever. I also think that it wouldn't win so many votes without him, but I don't really care how many votes they'd get on their policies alone.

You can't talk about social divide, can't talk about social upheaval by the poor that is pinned on one person, especially if that person is the richest man in the country.

So people voting rationally for their own self interest are "Stupids" - how do you or did you vote at home - against your self interest?

How do you live among the "Stupids"?

[thaigene2]

After reading the last several post about bad boy politicians causing their parties to get dissolved, the democrats may be the last man standing.

I'm sure it was planned this way all along.

Someone actually suggested to me last night that by not having international observers the bad boy politicians would be too tempted to be bad thus giving them their own hanging rope. I must admit is certainly is a plausible theory. It actually matches what Sonthi was doing a few months back.

Or...they didn't want the international observers to come here because the (pro-democrat military types) knew there wouldn't be any major vote buying by one party over another, it was a construct, and they didn't want the observers to see THAT because then it would be difficult to say later on that there was a problem - and use the fake excuse as the "reason" which I think they are now "using" to try to nulify the election results, hmm?

Edited January 12, 2008 by thaigene2

[Old Man River]

I am hearing it will be Samak and the PPP will remain. I really hope this is wrong, but ..... I never ever thought that Samak would be PM following his fiasco as Bangkok Governor where he gave up the last year. Add to this his fights with Gen. Prem. Only Thaksin could do this and only Thaksin would do this.

[thaigene2]

I am hearing it will be Samak and the PPP will remain. I really hope this is wrong, but ..... I never ever thought that Samak would be PM following his fiasco as Bangkok Governor where he gave up the last year. Add to this his fights with Gen. Prem. Only Thaksin could do this and only Thaksin would do this.

I just don't see that happening. "all" he has is the electorate on his side - and that's peanuts in corrupt old-family-money pooyai land.

[Old Man River]

After reading the last several post about bad boy politicians causing their parties to get dissolved, the democrats may be the last man standing.

I'm sure it was planned this way all along.

Someone actually suggested to me last night that by not having international observers the bad boy politicians would be too tempted to be bad thus giving them their own hanging rope. I must admit is certainly is a plausible theory. It actually matches what Sonthi was doing a few months back.

Or...they didn't want the international observers to come here because the (pro-democrat military types) knew there wouldn't be any major vote buying by one party over another, it was a construct, and they didn't want the observers to see THAT because then it would be difficult to say later on that there was a problem - and use the fake excuse as the "reason" which I think they are now "using" to try to nulify the election results, hmm?

International observers did monitor the election via ANFREL (Asian Network for Free Elections). ANFREL is supported by a number of national organizations from Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Thailand. You can access their report on the Thai election via their website. It's interesting.

[Old Man River]

I am hearing it will be Samak and the PPP will remain. I really hope this is wrong, but ..... I never ever thought that Samak would be PM following his fiasco as Bangkok Governor where he gave up the last year. Add to this his fights with Gen. Prem. Only Thaksin could do this and only Thaksin would do this.

I just don't see that happening. "all" he has is the electorate on his side - and that's peanuts in corrupt old-family-money pooyai land.

Like I said I hope it is wrong, but ..... Note, he has more than just the electorate on his side. He has Mr. Money himself.

The issue right now is who will lead the Bangkok demonstrations once the PPP takes over.

[Plus]

You can search this News forum far and wide and among thousands of allegations against Thaksin there isn't a single charge that he is unfit because he was elected by "stupids".

So people voting rationally for their own self interest are "Stupids" - how do you or did you vote at home - against your self interest?

How do you live among the "Stupids"?

Why are you attributing this to me?

I clearly said I don't believe in this idea, it is being propagated by various leftists, though it might originally belong to Thaksin himself - they oppose me because I am the man of the people, or some crap like that.

So here again - opposition to Thaksin has nothing to do with people who voted for him, it's his personal mix of business and politics that got him into trouble.

And to clarify another point - nearly 50% voted No last April, 12-14 millions by various counts. You (or rather Younghusband) can't dismiss these millions as "elite and their hangers", doesn't matter if they didn't make it into majority, the group is too big to put a label on it.

[thaigene2]

So here again - opposition to Thaksin has nothing to do with people who voted for him, it's his personal mix of business and politics that got him into trouble.

And to clarify another point - nearly 50% voted No last April, 12-14 millions by various counts. You (or rather Younghusband) can't dismiss these millions as "elite and their hangers", doesn't matter if they didn't make it into majority, the group is too big to put a label on it.

You know Plus, you're right to say that Thakisn's mix of business of politics got him into trouble - but why was that? And with whom did he get into trouble? Those are the key questions. Are we really "lefties" because we are supporting the right of the plurality to have their way (even if they don;t understand the full picture) - does that make us Thaksin appologists? No way.

Do you really think that the yellow T-Shirt brigade led by Sondhi (who, remember, was originally a Thaksin supporter!!) were snow-white saviors who were suitably outraged by Thaksin slight of hand with business and poltiics, especially when he didn't pay taxes on the Temasek deal, so they sprung into action to protect the good morals of the country and fight corruption??? Don't make me laugh - you're killing me!!!

You know you're evading the fact that ALL these guys are crooked. They are ALL in this for access to the Government largesse and to protect the old-family patronage system- you must know that. The only thing Thaksin did was perfect this system so his opponents couldn't touch him. They freaked out cause they were losing out - their families had a right to stick their snouts in the trough - how dare this Thaksin guy! He managed to do this, as we all know by now, by being the first to take better care of poor voters (who are the vast majority of voters) - it seemed no one could touch him - until 19 September 2006. How many have forgotten the letters sent to the US and the EU by Thaksin prior to the coup? He knew it was coming and was asking for backing - which he didn't get (other than a right to hang his hat in London).

My main point stands - Thai people have the right to vote for who they want, good or bad. It's their choice. If the elites didn't care enough about them in their 40 or 50 odd years of running the country - then they are paying the price right now, aren't they?

Edited January 12, 2008 by thaigene2

[plachon]

So here again - opposition to Thaksin has nothing to do with people who voted for him, it's his personal mix of business and politics that got him into trouble.

And to clarify another point - nearly 50% voted No last April, 12-14 millions by various counts. You (or rather Younghusband) can't dismiss these millions as "elite and their hangers", doesn't matter if they didn't make it into majority, the group is too big to put a label on it.

You know Plus, you're right to say that Thakisn's mix of business of politics got him into trouble - but why was that? And with whom did he get into trouble? Those are the key questions. Are we really "lefties" because we are supporting the right of the plurality to have their way (even if they don;t understand the full picture) - does that make us Thaksin appologists? No way.

Do you really think that the yellow T-Shirt brigade led by Sondhi (who, remember, was originally a Thaksin supporter!!) were snow-white saviors who were suitably outraged by Thaksin slight of hand with business and poltiics, especially when he didn't pay taxes on the Temasek deal, so they sprung into action to protect the good morals of the country and fight corruption??? Don't make me laugh - you're killing me!!!

You know you're evading the fact that ALL these guys are crooked. They are ALL in this for access to the Government largesse and to protect the old-family patronage system- you must know that. The only thing Thaksin did was perfect this system so his opponents couldn't touch him. They freaked out cause they were losing out - their families had a right to stick their snouts in the trough - how dare this Thaksin guy! He managed to do this, as we all know by now, by being the first to take better care of poor voters (who are the vast majority of voters) - it seemed no one could touch him - until 19 September 2006. How many have forgotten the letters sent to the US and the EU by Thaksin prior to the coup? He knew it was coming and was asking for backing - which he didn't get (other than a right to hang his hat in London).

My main point stands - Thai people have the right to vote for who they want, good or bad. It's their choice. If the elites didn't care enough about them in their 40 or 50 odd years of running the country - then they are paying the price right now, aren't they?

You re wrong, oh so wrong, about the nature and motivations of the anti-Thaksin coalition prior to the 2006 coup. I knew several very ordinary middle class Thais who felt sufficiently motivated to go most Fridays and listen to the Sonthi lambastings in Lumpini Park each Friday. Then there was the media, who despite increasingly draconian censorship and threats from the TRT mobs carried on churning out the news exposing the depths to which the Thaksin administration was sinking to in propping up their corrupt regime and subverting the democratic and judicial processes for their own ends (seems like a lot of TV posters were asleep during the 2003-06 period), even though it was not in their short-term financial interests to do so.

Then there was also the overdue turnaround of Maha Chamlong and his morhom army who started turning up at protests in increasing numbers and that really rankled Toxin and his henchmen (so much so that they started lobbing bombs at Phra Potirak's lodgings - remember that?). They can hardly be accused of being crooks, although self-interest was surely a part of their desire to put their lives on the line and turning out in large numbers on the streets of Bangkok.

Those people were real democrats - peaceful participants in the political process - but were shunted aside by Toxin in his increasingly desperate bid for absolute control of Thailand's institutions a la Harry Lee (Prakanong's democratic hero?). And now he's back again, trying every low hand trick in the book to weasel his way back into power on the backs of the country's poor and dispossessed. What a hero!

[jumnien]

The anti-Thaksin brigade, at least a very small minority of them, did have some noble aspirations. They were used, however, strictly as a pawn of the military junta. As free speech activist Supinya said wisely - The military junta is far more dangerous that Thaksin ever was. It would be nice to think that there was a group that could man up against the military junta in Thailand other than Samak, Thaksin and the PPP/TRT. The reality is that they are the only hope going right now. The Democrats just goosestep along with the military junta's every whim.

[Prakanong]

You can search this News forum far and wide and among thousands of allegations against Thaksin there isn't a single charge that he is unfit because he was elected by "stupids".

So people voting rationally for their own self interest are "Stupids" - how do you or did you vote at home - against your self interest?

How do you live among the "Stupids"?

Why are you attributing this to me?

I clearly said I don't believe in this idea, it is being propagated by various leftists, though it might originally belong to Thaksin himself - they oppose me because I am the man of the people, or some crap like that.

So here again - opposition to Thaksin has nothing to do with people who voted for him, it's his personal mix of business and politics that got him into trouble.

And to clarify another point - nearly 50% voted No last April, 12-14 millions by various counts. You (or rather Younghusband) can't dismiss these millions as "elite and their hangers", doesn't matter if they didn't make it into majority, the group is too big to put a label on it.

Does not matter if it was nearly or even if it was over 50% in the election system in Thailand - just like in the UK or USA a party or President could be elected with a minority of the popular vote but win by constituencies or states.

I would still posit if Thaksin was allowed to come back tomorrow and stand again he would win hands down.

Funny thing is he would have the support of the likes of Bush et al whereas the likes of Putin and Chavez get a bad press in the west

[Prakanong]

The anti-Thaksin brigade, at least a very small minority of them, did have some noble aspirations. They were used, however, strictly as a pawn of the military junta. As free speech activist Supinya said wisely - The military junta is far more dangerous that Thaksin ever was. It would be nice to think that there was a group that could man up against the military junta in Thailand other than Samak, Thaksin and the PPP/TRT. The reality is that they are the only hope going right now. The Democrats just goosestep along with the military junta's every whim.

Yes - there may have been sme noble adherents to the anti-Thaksin campagn but the main movers are the groups Thaigene speaks of - to ignore that is not to understand politics.

If the "Noble" group are real democrats then they should have removed Thaksin democratically - they should not support military coups.

Ergo they are not real democrats - just another set of minority interest groups.

[John K]

If you have a moment go back and check the threads about the TRT may be dissolved from Early April on up to the Ruling, you will see exactly the same tone and posture from the TRT saying they would not be dissolved. That loosely translates into arrogance figuring they could buy their way out.

The fact that the judge that will rule on the PPP validity this week won’t be announced until just hours before easily can be read as they fully expect the PPP to try to buy their way out of this one too. I would not doubt the person that will be deciding what judge has already been approached.

Put into the mix that Pojaman is back in town and very clearly is trying to cut deals is sure to energize the arrogance of the PPP. I only hope she find people saying that they will talk to her only after she has had her day in court.

Thaksin departure back to the UK along with frequent remarks by some in the PPP who have enough brains to see things with some clarity are already talking as if they are resolved to the fact the PPP has a very finite life expectancy and are saying quite literally the party is over.

This week several things will change so a lot of what is said now may be just for nothing. Way back around the beginning of this thread is said wait. That waiting time should be over in the next 2 weeks as long as set dates don’t change.

[John K]

The anti-Thaksin brigade, at least a very small minority of them, did have some noble aspirations. They were used, however, strictly as a pawn of the military junta. As free speech activist Supinya said wisely - The military junta is far more dangerous that Thaksin ever was. It would be nice to think that there was a group that could man up against the military junta in Thailand other than Samak, Thaksin and the PPP/TRT. The reality is that they are the only hope going right now. The Democrats just goosestep along with the military junta's every whim.

Yes - there may have been sme noble adherents to the anti-Thaksin campagn but the main movers are the groups Thaigene speaks of - to ignore that is not to understand politics.

If the "Noble" group are real democrats then they should have removed Thaksin democratically - they should not support military coups.

Ergo they are not real democrats - just another set of minority interest groups.

This anti-Thaksin group you speak of (and a confess I am one of them), has been most accurate in their post and the outcome of what they say frequently comes to be. So perhaps you can rephrase anti-Thaksin as realists. Also take note that the more educated Thais appear to agree with what the anti-Thaksin posters are saying. That excluded the ones on Thaksin’s payroll of corse.

For some people once again trying to insert the junta again, I truly am now convinced the reality you perceive is what you want to be and not what is. I made a post last week about you failing the comprehension test. I can now add to that I can see you are trying to rewrite history in the way you want it to be. Perhaps in about 20 years you may be successful, but for now the facts are too fresh in everyone’s mind and are very different from how you project them. Because of that little fact, take a moment and think how you look when you post a known non fact as factual.

[sriracha john]

Puea Pandin in no rush to join PPP

Vatana insists five conditions be met

The Puea Pandin Party would opt out of the People Power Party-led coalition government if the core partner fails to accept five conditions laid down by the party and its ally Chart Thai, said Puea Pandin Party chairman Vatana Asavahame yesterday. ''If the PPP rejects the conditions, there will be no Vatana Asavahame in the administration,'' Vatana said. According to Vatana, the conditions set by Puea Pandin and the Chart Thai party are non-negotiable and are considered vital to the party's decision to be part of the coalition government. Vatana said the PPP has yet to ''formally accept'' the conditions, which he believes are essential to bringing about national reconciliation. He stressed yesterday that the party had been set up to pursue national reconciliation, while noting that political divisiveness remains.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/13Jan2008_news03.php

===============================================

I wonder if the Puea Pandin has seen the blasphemous and defamatory anti-Puea Pandin YouTube videos made by the Thaksinistas back in September when Puea Pandin was seen as a threat to the People Power Party.

[sriracha john]

WE have just watched a news item on UBC channel 7 ( TNN )

I was attracted to it as a mature man was talking to the police and crying, obviously very distressed.

Wife explains that he is the village PUYAI BAN in the Chang Rai area ?????

He reported the PPP for vote buying and has now received threats that certain unknown supporters ??? have told him they are going to kill not only him but his whole family and he has gone to the police in fear of their lives.

Not ficticious but real threats via telephone, letters and contact with masked locals or others ect.

He has asked the police to protect them and wants round the clock protection.

He looked maybe fiftyish and was very respectable in appearance.

marshbags

How many i wonder are already taken care of in one way or another and are withdrawing their statements.

This man obviously thought his safest route was to go direct to the police and not give in to the threats.

I hope he gets the support he deserves and he stays safe, along with his family.

Knowing Thai culture in this area, his safety remains very questionable to say the least. very indeed

Yongyuth's accuser seeks protection

Police accept Mae Chan kamnan's request after intimidating phone calls

A kamnan in tambon Chanchwa in Mae Chan district has sought police protection after testifying to the EC and leveling allegations of poll fraud against Yongyuth Tiyapairat, Deputy Leader of the People Power Party. Chaiwat Changkaokham yesterday asked Songtham Alapach, the Chiang Rai provincial Police Chief, to provide him with police protection as he feared for his life. He said he feared for his safety after testifying against the alleged electoral fraud committed by the PPP Deputy Leader. He was one of the 10 local leaders interrogated by the poll agency on Dec 26 over the alleged vote buying. Mr Chaiwat told the poll agency that prior to the election, he and the other nine local leaders flew to Bangkok to engage in some activities. Their activities were recorded on a VCD, which is now being used to back up allegations against Yongyuth. It is said to show the 10 local leaders holding a meeting with Yongyuth to discuss vote buying. Mr Chaiwat said following his testimony to the EC, a smear campaign was launched against him in an effort to discredit him. Meanwhile, Yongyuth said he would turn up at the poll agency today to watch the VCD with a team of editing professionals so that he can disprove the vote-buying claims. He was invited to view it on Friday, but failed to show up.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/13Jan2008_news07.php

=====================================================

Given Yongyuth's historical propensity for armed violence (leading a War on Drugs team to spray an elderly couple's home with a hail of gunfire)... Mr. Chaiwat's concerns are very real.

Hopefully, the questions regarding even the existence of the VCD have been answered.

Edited January 13, 2008 by sriracha john

[younghusband]

...the elite and its hangers on feel it has the right to block or veto the majority's legitimate aspirations.

Yet there hasn't been a single time in recent history when they actually ACTED on those alleged feelings. I'm typing this for the third time - Bangkok accepted widely unpopular Chavalit government in 1996, no one protested against Thaksin in 2000. People were disgusted with 2001 court ruling in his favour but they accepted it, too.

There is a culture of accepting majority's decision against all personal feelings.

In 2006 it wasn't just elite and hangers on who ousted Thaksin - nearly half the country wanted him to go. The coup had no chance of success without popular support.

And here's another argument against - there isn't a single individual in the whole country who publicly opposes PPPs attempts to form the government, yet you talk about existence of a "culture".

Have you got this idea from Samak who hinted at the dirty invisible hand? Great source.

This alleged intereference by "elites" in the current situation has very little evidence. They have no say in how EC runs its investigations (hard to believe they have, after EC has simply fired an investigator for apparent anti-PPP bias). They have no idea how things might turn out in courts several months later. They don't seem to put any pressure or offer anything to political parties to keep them from joining PPP, even the ones they allegedly set up themselves.

So far it appears that they simply sit on their dirty hands and watch how PPP makes a complete ass out of itself. At best they asked the Special Branch Police to send a video to the EC. Do you think they should have kept it? Do you think the chaos of PPP dissolution serves them any purpose? Do you think they want another chance at running the government after Sorayud's poor performance?

And why should they worry at all? More than 60% of Thais voted against their arch enemy Thaksin. They have support of the people, no matter what PPP tries to do.

There is also, in all honesty, a rarely mentioned but valid ethnic dimension in that the elite and even Bangkok itself has become predominantly a Sino Thai grouping with limited cultural affiliation with the Thai majority

Have you noticed that your "Thai" majority from Isan (where they don't even speak Thai) is repesented by the same Sino Thais in politics? And those same Sino Thais who represent your alleged "Thai" majority have a hard going in Central provinces, the rice bowl, the heartland, people who traditionally set up standards of Thainess, while the other Sino Thais, like Banharn, have kept the area under control for decades now.

Thie ethnic dimenstion has near zero pecent influence on current situation. The confilct is mostly about one man's ambition, income gap issue is overrated, he would have just as easily created and exploited private sector-bureacracy conflict if it served his purposes. In fact that what got him middle class support in 2000.

The real conflict between social classes is still in the making, if left unadressed by opportunists like Thaksin it still has many years to mature to political representation.

I'm not quite sure how to respond because my observations were not really about short term political machinations but rather an attempt to provide some broader cultural context.There is much you say with which I would agree (though for the record I note your prescriptive definition of Thaksin as the Thai peeoples' arch enemy - too silly to debate really) If you recall I emphasized the ethnic dimension should not be over stressed (though it has a little more than the zero influence you indicate).It is always striking when people start ascribing degrees of "Thainess" to various regional groups, weirdly so when recently arrived descendants of Swatow rice farmers question the national credentials of people settled in the Kingdom for many hundreds of years.Incidentally your assumptions about the Central heartland providing the "standards of Thainess", admittedly widely shared, are questioned by many contemporary Thai historians.In fact many would say the phrase was meaningless.

Looking for areas of agreement I endorse your view that the real conflict between social classes is still in the making, though the way you phrase it has an oddly Marxist ring to it. Are you a closet believer in the class war? I am not and I remain hopeful that, with the many strengths of this country, class conflict can be avoided or minimised to a tolerable degree.Much will depend on the efforts of educated people of good will to compromise and share national resorces much more fairly.Thaksin's populist measures are always described -as you do here- as "opportunist": I agree and so do all the political parties who have now adopted them.Nothing wrong with that in democratic politics.

Back to my original point there is need to end the "culture of disrespect".The more enlightened members of the Thai educated class know this very well.

[JacknDanny]

The anti-Thaksin brigade, at least a very small minority of them, did have some noble aspirations. They were used, however, strictly as a pawn of the military junta. As free speech activist Supinya said wisely - The military junta is far more dangerous that Thaksin ever was. It would be nice to think that there was a group that could man up against the military junta in Thailand other than Samak, Thaksin and the PPP/TRT. The reality is that they are the only hope going right now. The Democrats just goosestep along with the military junta's every whim.

Yes - there may have been sme noble adherents to the anti-Thaksin campagn but the main movers are the groups Thaigene speaks of - to ignore that is not to understand politics.

If the "Noble" group are real democrats then they should have removed Thaksin democratically - they should not support military coups.

Ergo they are not real democrats - just another set of minority interest groups.

This anti-Thaksin group you speak of (and a confess I am one of them), has been most accurate in their post and the outcome of what they say frequently comes to be. So perhaps you can rephrase anti-Thaksin as realists. Also take note that the more educated Thais appear to agree with what the anti-Thaksin posters are saying. That excluded the ones on Thaksin’s payroll of corse.

For some people once again trying to insert the junta again, I truly am now convinced the reality you perceive is what you want to be and not what is. I made a post last week about you failing the comprehension test. I can now add to that I can see you are trying to rewrite history in the way you want it to be. Perhaps in about 20 years you may be successful, but for now the facts are too fresh in everyone’s mind and are very different from how you project them. Because of that little fact, take a moment and think how you look when you post a known non fact as factual.

With respect this post is rather hard to understand and it doesn't help that the syntax, grammar and phrasing are jumbled and confused.Never mind that however: I appreciate English is not your mother tongue.I don't want you to become too distracted from your sleuthing effort on Cyber Tower.February 1 is only a fortnight away and the forum is eagerly awaiting your considered findings.

younghusband, you asked a while ago to explain 'flaming' and when it was put to you that you were always guilty of flaming fellow board members.

This last post of yours is a typical example. You really are a kind of cyber warrior, very hard and strong on a keyboard. I wonder what you are like in person

[Plus]

I'm not quite sure how to respond because my observations were not really about short term political machinations

It appeared that you talked about ethnic dimension influence on current events.

(though for the record I note your prescriptive definition of Thaksin as the Thai peeoples' arch enemy - too silly to debate really)

I meant junta's arch enemy, they don't worry too much about him as they got more than 60% of voters on their side.

It is always striking when people start ascribing degrees of "Thainess" to various regional groups, weirdly so when recently arrived descendants of Swatow rice farmers question the national credentials of people settled in the Kingdom for many hundreds of years.Incidentally your assumptions about the Central heartland providing the "standards of Thainess", admittedly widely shared, are questioned by many contemporary Thai historians.In fact many would say the phrase was meaningless.

You were the first one to talk about aspirations "Thai majority", if you think "Thainess" doesn't reflect "Thai majority" anymore, fine. My point was that Sino Thais who backed Thaksin do not reflect it either. There aren't clear ethnic lines in this conflict, it's largely irrelevant.

Looking for areas of agreement I endorse your view that the real conflict between social classes is still in the making, though the way you phrase it has an oddly Marxist ring to it.

That's because this social divide is propagated by leftists. People who believe there's more to people voting for Thaksin than their infatuation with the man himself, more than vote buying, more than populist handouts. Difficult to assess how much true is to the claim that people voted TRT because it addressed their inspirations. PPP candidates didn't take the chances and campaigned on Thaksin's personality, and Samak, of course, simply declared himself nominee of Thaksin, not nominee of the people.

How many votes would PPP sans Thaksin get in an election? Will it still be more than Democrats, for example?

Back to my original point there is need to end the "culture of disrespect".The more enlightened members of the Thai educated class know this very well.

There's feeling of disrepect, true, but there's also little action on that feeling. "Elites" usually accept the outcome.

Prakhanong,

Does not matter if it was nearly or even if it was over 50% in the election system in Thailand - just like in the UK or USA a party or President could be elected with a minority of the popular vote but win by constituencies or states.

You still don't get it - my objection was not to the number of votes, I said you can't call nearly half the country "elite and their hangers on".

Thaksin shouldn't be allowed to stand in elections, number of votes doesn't matter. At the moment there's an electoral ban on him. PPP can overturn the court's verdict but there's no escaping the fact that Thaksin and his party were guilty as charged and should have been dissolved.

And there's "small" matter of hiding his control over Shin empire while in office. I doubt any of the staunchest Thaksin's supportes believe otherwise. Thay basically say it doesn't matter as long as people vote for him. Votes override the law. That's not democracy, that's jungle.

The anti-Thaksin brigade, at least a very small minority of them, did have some noble aspirations. They were used, however, strictly as a pawn of the military junta.

Are you sure you got your facts right? At the height of anti-Thaksin's protests the junta didn't even exist.

And how can you call Sondhi the junta's pawn? He fell our of their favour very very fast.

The middle class uprising was predicted long ago by Tirayuth, it was caused by corruption allegations against Thaksin, Sondhi was the right man at the right time to lead the protests, but they would have found someone else to lead them, maybe not as successfully.

It was a social phenomenon, social movement that would have manifested itself regardless of who was in charge of it.

[hammered]

I am hearing it will be Samak and the PPP will remain. I really hope this is wrong, but ..... I never ever thought that Samak would be PM following his fiasco as Bangkok Governor where he gave up the last year. Add to this his fights with Gen. Prem. Only Thaksin could do this and only Thaksin would do this.

I hear the same, but as smeone on here said the macchiavellian manouvers could make this information redundant as it is passed around.

It would certainly seem to indicate a move away from a deal to a more assertive position by the PPP although it is their democratic right of course assunimg they have at least the 241 supporters. Maybe they will try to legislate the 111 bans and cases against Thaksin away as extra constitutional and thereby illegal as some have suggested.

[Abrak]

There are persistent rumors that Prem is about to step down as head of the Privy Council. Assuming this is more than just wishful thinking, it would at least go a long way to heal some of the rifts between many of the outstanding parties.