A Democrat Coalition Government?

[soundman]

This post may be just wishful thinking on my part - not just keeping the PPP out, but keeping Taxin out.

However:

It is becoming very clear through the PPP's not being able to form (buy) a coalition partner that they may not be able to form a government.

Who would want to form a coalition with the PPP when you know you will have no power whatsover? A little like the last kid picked for the school footy team to make up the numbers. You get to wear the jersey, but the ball will never get passed to you.

Who would want to go with Samak when all the latest opinion polls point to Abhisit being the most favoured PM?

Joining the PPP to form a coalition will get you nothing. Forming a coalition with the democrats will get you a substancial voice for a few seats earned through the popular vote.

This election is far from over. The fat lady hasn't even begun to warm up her vocal chords. I would pay a fortune to see the look on Taxin's face when the PPP wasn't able to garner an outright majority. Priceless.

Your thoughts?

Soundman.

[mrtoad]

Maybe it will happen, but those smaller parties are in a good position to drive a hard bargain at present, so expect a few more days of this.

The look on Toxin and Samak's faces if it all goes pear shaped ,would be as you said "priceless".

[PhilHarries]

I would love it if you were right sm, but I have a sneaking suspicion that one or more of the smaller parties will sell out for a place, however small, at the feed trough.

[soundman]

This brings us the heart of the subject at hand. The smaller parties know they can put a high price on their support to join a PPP coalition, however, they also know that once PPP has the power, they will be discarded and left on the sidelines or even booted out if they don't toe the party line.

Like Barnharn - I'll join PPP - if I'm PM. Samak won't go for that but taxin might. Worrying.

[mrtoad]

This brings us the heart of the subject at hand. The smaller parties know they can put a high price on their support to join a PPP coalition, however, they also know that once PPP has the power, they will be discarded and left on the sidelines or even booted out if they don't toe the party line.

Like Barnharn - I'll join PPP - if I'm PM. Samak won't go for that but taxin might. Worrying.

Barharn is a particualry odious individual, who is in a good position to get what he wants.I did enjoy the bit the other week when he fell in a Klong, he probably polluted it.

Samak may feel that he is the number one guy, but in the end Thaksin will have no problems discarding him, if he thinks that is the way to get a coalition. Samak has said he is a puppet, and puppets do what their masters say. Thaksin needs PPP to form a coalition, so he can return to Thailand and reclaim his money and get charges dropped. Sadly, much of the outcomes of this election are about the self interest of certain individuals, and not neccesarily for the benefit of the majority of the people.

Edited December 26, 2007 by mrtoad

[soundman]

Thaksin needs PPP to form a coalition, so he can return to Thailand and reclaim his money and get charges dropped. Sadly, much of the outcomes of this election are about the self interest of certain individuals, and not neccesarily for the benefit of the majority of the people.

What is really sad is the voting public fall for this standard political play book procedure.

Promise them the world, get yourself into a position of power, get them into debt (enslavement) and they will love you for it & finally milk it for all it is worth.

Even sader still is the fact that if Abhisit gets the reins with relatively clean hands, he might actually create some policy of lasting benefit for the lower classes of Thai's & they are too blinkered / short term, reward me now, thinking to actually see this.

Soundman.

[mrtoad]

Thaksin needs PPP to form a coalition, so he can return to Thailand and reclaim his money and get charges dropped. Sadly, much of the outcomes of this election are about the self interest of certain individuals, and not neccesarily for the benefit of the majority of the people.

What is really sad is the voting public fall for this standard political play book procedure.

Promise them the world, get yourself into a position of power, get them into debt (enslavement) and they will love you for it & finally milk it for all it is worth.

Even sader still is the fact that if Abhisit gets the reins with relatively clean hands, he might actually create some policy of lasting benefit for the lower classes of Thai's & they are too blinkered / short term, reward me now, thinking to actually see this.

Soundman.

Yeah, the thing is Politicians all over the world do it, but it does appear to be a little more blatant here. Some of the promises that have been made have been frankly, quite ludicrous. They can't afford to do it, they know they can't, and have no intention of doing it. In the end, the working classess will continue to be given loansd etc, with no support or guidance in how to use it effectively. Now, if there was a government which ran purely on an educational ticket, that would be something, but sadly loans and handouts seem to appeal more. Education is both a threat and a fear.

The problem with the Democrats, as I see it, is that they are seen as a Party of the Rich and the Middle Classes and don't appeal to rural vote. It's not helped by Abhsit being born and educated overseas and seen as a priviliged young man. He diodn't help himslef by playing along with the military either. Personally, I think that he has a lot to offer Thai politics, far much more than all of the failures (Banharn, Leekpai, Meechai etc, etc) that are still swarming around the trough and likely to find themselves in considerable positions of power.

[soundman]

Personally, I think that he has a lot to offer Thai politics, far much more than all of the failures (Banharn, Leekpai, Meechai etc, etc) that are still swarming around the trough and likely to find themselves in considerable positions of power.

This is the point of this post. Although I see a democrat coalition government being formed as only being an outside chance - these politicians crave power & with the PPP they know once the cookie has crumbled they will be left with crumbs, if anything. With a democrat coalition they know they will have real power.

So unless some serious money changes hands (tens of billions of baht IMO), I think most of the minor parties would theoretically side with the democrats unless they see a mass exodus to the PPP.

Cheers.

[mrtoad]

cookie has crumbled they will be left with crumbs, if anything. With a democrat coalition they know they will have real power.

So unless some serious money changes hands (tens of billions of baht IMO), I think most of the minor parties would theoretically side with the democrats unless they see a mass exodus to the PPP.

Cheers.

Interestingly, it appears that Prem has met with Ruam Jai and Puean Puedin parties, and one wonders if he has given the two leaders of those parties a little gentle arm twist not to join a PPP coalition.

In the end, power opens the gates to the money, and people like Banharn etc, may find it more difficult to abuse power in a Democrat led coalition, which if it was to assume power would need to be seen a squeaky clean.I just think there will be more checks and balances under a Abhasit led government.

Edited December 26, 2007 by mrtoad

[ade100]

This brings us the heart of the subject at hand. The smaller parties know they can put a high price on their support to join a PPP coalition, however, they also know that once PPP has the power, they will be discarded and left on the sidelines or even booted out if they don't toe the party line.

If the Thai parliament is anything like that of the UK, wouldn’t the PPP need to manage their relationship with the smaller parties very carefully? Any time there was a vote they would be dependent upon the support of the smaller parties and if they didn’t get it they would be in danger of having a vote going against them. In the UK that always used to mean the government was no longer viable. Not sure, however, if it works the same way in the Thai system.

[mrtoad]

This brings us the heart of the subject at hand. The smaller parties know they can put a high price on their support to join a PPP coalition, however, they also know that once PPP has the power, they will be discarded and left on the sidelines or even booted out if they don't toe the party line.

If the Thai parliament is anything like that of the UK, wouldn’t the PPP need to manage their relationship with the smaller parties very carefully? Any time there was a vote they would be dependent upon the support of the smaller parties and if they didn’t get it they would be in danger of having a vote going against them. In the UK that always used to mean the government was no longer viable. Not sure, however, if it works the same way in the Thai system.

This is going to be one of the big problems with a coalition government. History suggests that around the world they don't work very effectively, i.e. Germany 1920's, Italy 1980's and Thailand 1980's, just as a couple of examples.

The constitution was changed to prevent one party from being dominant, but sadly what it is likely to create is a mishmash of ineffective governemnts and regular snap elections.

Edited December 26, 2007 by mrtoad

[monty]

Not much chance for the democrats...

By bringing aboard the Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, Matchima and Pracharaj Parties, the coalition will have 254 parliamentary seats out of 480.

Secretary General Surapong Suebwonglee confirmed that the three small parties have agreed to join PPP in forming the coalition government.

PPP (233 MPs) has cleared the first hurdle by securing support from Ruamjai Thai Chart Pattana (9 MPs), Matchima Thipataya (7 MPs) and Pracharaj (5 MPs). There have been reports that the PPP would help repay the election expenses of these three parties in exchange for joining the coalition.

from the Nation

[mrtoad]

Not much chance for the democrats...

By bringing aboard the Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, Matchima and Pracharaj Parties, the coalition will have 254 parliamentary seats out of 480.

Secretary General Surapong Suebwonglee confirmed that the three small parties have agreed to join PPP in forming the coalition government.

PPP (233 MPs) has cleared the first hurdle by securing support from Ruamjai Thai Chart Pattana (9 MPs), Matchima Thipataya (7 MPs) and Pracharaj (5 MPs). There have been reports that the PPP would help repay the election expenses of these three parties in exchange for joining the coalition.

from the Nation

And it is the last bit which sadly sums up, most of what is wrong with Thai politics. Money before ideology.

[soundman]

This brings us the heart of the subject at hand. The smaller parties know they can put a high price on their support to join a PPP coalition, however, they also know that once PPP has the power, they will be discarded and left on the sidelines or even booted out if they don't toe the party line.

If the Thai parliament is anything like that of the UK, wouldn't the PPP need to manage their relationship with the smaller parties very carefully? Any time there was a vote they would be dependent upon the support of the smaller parties and if they didn't get it they would be in danger of having a vote going against them. In the UK that always used to mean the government was no longer viable. Not sure, however, if it works the same way in the Thai system.

That would really depend on the numbers of the oposition.

If only Democrat were in oposition at 170 odd seats & other smaller parties didn't join in an organised oposition, then the ten seats PPP need to form a government would hold no value to PPP whatsoever after the deed has been done.

Different scenario. PPP has with a one party coalition, a two seat majority in the house & all other parties are in oposition forming a two seat minority, then that one small party wields an enormous amount of power, & the government is very weak & unlikely to ever achieve anything.

Third scenario: Democrats get in with four other parties to form a government. Weak government, nothing achieved apart from hopefully two things, derailing PPP (TRT) & hopefully nailing Taxin.

Soundman.

[soundman]

Not much chance for the democrats...

By bringing aboard the Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, Matchima and Pracharaj Parties, the coalition will have 254 parliamentary seats out of 480.

Secretary General Surapong Suebwonglee confirmed that the three small parties have agreed to join PPP in forming the coalition government.

PPP (233 MPs) has cleared the first hurdle by securing support from Ruamjai Thai Chart Pattana (9 MPs), Matchima Thipataya (7 MPs) and Pracharaj (5 MPs). There have been reports that the PPP would help repay the election expenses of these three parties in exchange for joining the coalition.

from the Nation

And it is the last bit which sadly sums up, most of what is wrong with Thai politics. Money before ideology.

The way that article reads, it is all speculation & postering - nothing has been signed on the dotted line.

The fat lady hasn't begun to sing, however she may have taken the lid off the piano.

Even from the outset - the picture has not been rosy for the democrats. An uphill battle one could call it.

Taxin's sphinchter will be puckering over the next 48 hours!

60million thai's all beholdant to one man's ambition, not the countires future.

Shame, shame, shame.

[mrtoad]

Taxin's sphinchter will be puckering over the next 48 hours!

60million thai's all beholdant to one man's ambition, not the countires future.

Shame, shame, shame.

He should have named his party Thaksin Rak Thaksin.

It's a sorry state of affairs, but for Thaksin this was probably the quickest and easiset route for him to reclaim his money that has been seized, rather than fighting it through the courts

[Abrak]

PPP is in a very strong position. Even without Chat Thai and Peua Pandin they have 254 seats. At least one of those two parties will cave in and join the trough. Banharn in particular, hates being in the opposition. It is only a question of time before one or both of these parties cut a deal with PPP.

[mrtoad]

I'm not sure about the 254 seats, I think it is 233. If they had 254 they wouldn't need to form a coalition.

[Abrak]

They have 254 seats once you include Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, Matchima and Pracharaj parties. That's enough for a majority in parliament without Chat Thai or Peua Pandin.

[Mosha]

Reuters News Agency about 1 hour ago.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/i...K28913120071226

[mrtoad]

They have 254 seats once you include Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, Matchima and Pracharaj parties. That's enough for a majority in parliament without Chat Thai or Peua Pandin.

Sorry, misread your first post. I'm not suprised, but it will be interesting to see how long this coalition lasts. The others will probably join, as if they don't they are going to miss out on their piece of the pie.

Ruam Jai, is a break off from TRT anyhow from what I understand and is a proxy for Somkid.

It's more of the same old, same old crooks, liars and cheats feathering their own nests.

[soundman]

The only problem with these articles is that it is only PPP stating they have the support of the other parties. Clearly an intimidating tactic on the remaining parties, in the hope they will suddenly change positions and jump on the departing train before it is too late.

Dirty, underhanded tactics producing paranoia and fear when these other parties should have clear minds to make the decisions for themselves.

Nothing at all is confirmed - all just speculation & hyperbol.

[mrtoad]

The only problem with these articles is that it is only PPP stating they have the support of the other parties. Clearly an intimidating tactic on the remaining parties, in the hope they will suddenly change positions and jump on the departing train before it is too late.

Dirty, underhanded tactics producing paranoia and fear when these other parties should have clear minds to make the decisions for themselves.

Nothing at all is confirmed - all just speculation & hyperbol.

Yeah, but I think it is likely that maybve they have got the 8 seats needed to form a government. The inteesting thing is that, even if they lead the government, with all the different factions bickering and fighting the Democrats in oposition, in the long run could come out of this smelling of roses. Give some of these guys enough rope, and they might, just might hang themselves this time.

[Plus]

254 is not going to make it - you have to deduct MPs who join the government, upto 35 of them. These MPs can't vote in no confidence motion and the opposition can easily win the majority and oust the government. Anything below 270-280 is unsafe.

PPP is afraid they'll get busted for corruption again, and they don't have any long term plans, they exist solely to bring back Thaksin. Their adhoc government will probably get busted for incompetence, too.

[jayjayjayjay]

cookie has crumbled they will be left with crumbs, if anything. With a democrat coalition they know they will have real power.

Cheers.

Interestingly, it appears that Prem has met with Ruam Jai and Puean Puedin parties, and one wonders if he has given the two leaders of those parties a little gentle arm twist not to join a PPP coalition.

Is this country to be held captive by Prem, even 30 years after his rain ended...... Mar 3 1980 - Aug 3 1988.

Edited December 26, 2007 by jayjayjayjay

[Jingthing]

It could be worse. I don't see how we can know now how this will turn out. (See my avatar.)

Edited December 26, 2007 by sbk

[soundman]

It could be worse. I don't see how we can know now how this will turn out. (See my avatar.)

Your avatar looks just like a puppet. Have you been reading the tea leaves or monkey bones and getting future PM predictions again?

[mrtoad]

It could be worse. I don't see how we can know now how this will turn out. (See my avatar.)

Your avatar looks just like a puppet. Have you been reading the tea leaves or monkey bones and getting future PM predictions again?

If it looks like a puppet and talks like a puppet, it is a puppet.

[markwhite]

254 is not going to make it - you have to deduct MPs who join the government, upto 35 of them. These MPs can't vote in no confidence motion and the opposition can easily win the majority and oust the government. Anything below 270-280 is unsafe.

And the reported existence of vote buying again. Apparently there will be more news on this tomorrow when red cards start to be handed out. I believe it could affect the number of seats held by various parties.

[CNXagent]

It could be worse. I don't see how we can know now how this will turn out. (See my avatar.)

Your avatar looks just like a puppet. Have you been reading the tea leaves or monkey bones and getting future PM predictions again?

If it looks like a puppet and talks like a puppet, it is a puppet.

I think he looks like a Pig and talk like a bulldog . Always barking up the wrong tree