Will The Dollar Rebound In 2008

[LaoPo]

1. 2009 will see the dollar strenghtening in real terms as President McCain ends porkbarrel spending and brings fiscal conservatisim back to the federal government, and in a trade off the Dems will get tougher trade policy.

2. If I were a Canadian, Brit, Aussie,European or Asian and I was contemplating buying real estate(with one caveat-condos in Florida) in the U.S. I wouldn't wait too much longer, given the current exchange rates and the fact that Sam Zell (the man who knows more than any living human about the U.S. real estate market)came out this morning and said that the U.S. real estate market has bottomed and will begin to turn up by late spring, now is the time to pick up the bargains.

3. The hilbama debate is about to start and I do love a great comedy team, so I will have to leave now

1. You switch Presidents by the week VV; what happened to your former favorite Huckabee ?

2. We knew that already VV but the question is if many of those countrymen you mentioned want to live in the US; Foreign investors will step in though; the ones with cash and the ones with cash come from the Middle & Far East...take your pick

3. As for a new President....you might want to brush your teeth for a Democrat this time; Barack Obama

4. I'm so curious what kind of mysterious Crystal Ball Goldman has that they can predict the $ at 1.32 for the 4th Quarter of 2009.... That's almost 2 years from now...

Hang in there.

LaoPo

[Abrak]

Vegasvic,

You have been vocal in your call that bullion prices are overvalued for sometime even as they have gone up further - and that those who invest in them are morons. Obviously you look silly at the moment but that doesnt worry me - people telling investors to dump internet stocks near the end of their up cycle would have looked silly at first too.

I just wonder what makes you so convinced that current prices are so ridiculously overvalued.

[charoons]

Thai Baht Currency Exchange Forecast

Thai Baht per U.S. Dollar Currency Exchange Forecast

Thai Baht per One United States Dollar. Average of Month.

Jan2008 Feb2008 Mar2008 Apr2008 May2008 Jun2008

Forecast Value 29.9 29.3 29.6 30.1 29.7 29.6

50% Correct 0.87 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

80% Correct 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5

Updated Friday, January 11, 2008 [an error occurred while processing this directive]

Source: http://www.neatideas.com/exchange-rate/tha...change-rate.htm

[VegasVic]

1. 2009 will see the dollar strenghtening in real terms as President McCain ends porkbarrel spending and brings fiscal conservatisim back to the federal government, and in a trade off the Dems will get tougher trade policy.

2. If I were a Canadian, Brit, Aussie,European or Asian and I was contemplating buying real estate(with one caveat-condos in Florida) in the U.S. I wouldn't wait too much longer, given the current exchange rates and the fact that Sam Zell (the man who knows more than any living human about the U.S. real estate market)came out this morning and said that the U.S. real estate market has bottomed and will begin to turn up by late spring, now is the time to pick up the bargains.

3. The hilbama debate is about to start and I do love a great comedy team, so I will have to leave now

1. You switch Presidents by the week VV; what happened to your former favorite Huckabee ?

2. We knew that already VV but the question is if many of those countrymen you mentioned want to live in the US; Foreign investors will step in though; the ones with cash and the ones with cash come from the Middle & Far East...take your pick

3. As for a new President....you might want to brush your teeth for a Democrat this time; Barack Obama

4. I'm so curious what kind of mysterious Crystal Ball Goldman has that they can predict the $ at 1.32 for the 4th Quarter of 2009.... That's almost 2 years from now...

Hang in there.

LaoPo

Poor lao still trying to use the Huckabee quote out of context? I realize now that enlgish is not your strong suit so I will try and explain my post as simply as possible (perhaps I should use all caps next time?). In the first sentence I stated that GS had the same forecast ($1.32) for the EURO in CYQ4 2008 as MS did. I then proceeded to explain that most of this renewed strength in the dollar in the latter half of 2008 will be due to a weakness in the pound and EURO, more than a strength in the dollar in real terms. In the next sentnce I stated that when John McCain becomes President in 2009, he will end pork barrel spending, bring fiscal restraint to the federal government and throw the dems a bone on tougher trade policy, and that in turn will help the dollar to continue its strengthening trend, but the dollar will see gains in real terms (vs. most world currencies) in 2009 rather than just seeing gains as a result of a weakening EURO and pound. As for Mr. Obama, he is an extremely bright and articulate young man and will make a very formidable candidate in 2016 I hope that I was able to simplify this enough for you to understand.

[LaoPo]

1. 2009 will see the dollar strenghtening in real terms as President McCain ends porkbarrel spending and brings fiscal conservatisim back to the federal government, and in a trade off the Dems will get tougher trade policy.

2. If I were a Canadian, Brit, Aussie,European or Asian and I was contemplating buying real estate(with one caveat-condos in Florida) in the U.S. I wouldn't wait too much longer, given the current exchange rates and the fact that Sam Zell (the man who knows more than any living human about the U.S. real estate market)came out this morning and said that the U.S. real estate market has bottomed and will begin to turn up by late spring, now is the time to pick up the bargains.

3. The hilbama debate is about to start and I do love a great comedy team, so I will have to leave now

1. You switch Presidents by the week VV; what happened to your former favorite Huckabee ?

2. We knew that already VV but the question is if many of those countrymen you mentioned want to live in the US; Foreign investors will step in though; the ones with cash and the ones with cash come from the Middle & Far East...take your pick

3. As for a new President....you might want to brush your teeth for a Democrat this time; Barack Obama

4. I'm so curious what kind of mysterious Crystal Ball Goldman has that they can predict the $ at 1.32 for the 4th Quarter of 2009.... That's almost 2 years from now...

Hang in there.

LaoPo

Poor lao still trying to use the Huckabee quote out of context? I realize now that enlgish is not your strong suit so I will try and explain my post as simply as possible (perhaps I should use all caps next time?). In the first sentence I stated that GS had the same forecast ($1.32) for the EURO in CYQ4 2008 as MS did. I then proceeded to explain that most of this renewed strength in the dollar in the latter half of 2008 will be due to a weakness in the pound and EURO, more than a strength in the dollar in real terms. In the next sentnce I stated that when John McCain becomes President in 2009, he will end pork barrel spending, bring fiscal restraint to the federal government and throw the dems a bone on tougher trade policy, and that in turn will help the dollar to continue its strengthening trend, but the dollar will see gains in real terms (vs. most world currencies) in 2009 rather than just seeing gains as a result of a weakening EURO and pound. As for Mr. Obama, he is an extremely bright and articulate young man and will make a very formidable candidate in 2016 I hope that I was able to simplify this enough for you to understand.

1. you said Huckabee would be the next President; that's not a quote out of context but a mere reminder Vicky. Now you say it will be McCain....but you're not the only one in the US, switching on a daily basis.

2. let's wait and see who buys the cheap real estate in sunny Florida...

3. It will be quite a race to the White House...never been so exciting. We'll see...but I put my cards on Obama. McCain is way too old. America is not waiting for a Senior Citizen in his 70's to run the country. America and the world needs a bright new and young leader

4. I stand corrected and I misread 2008 for 2009; Mea Culpa and let's wait and see where the Greenback will be in the 4th Quarter, shall we ? But I doubt it will be at 1.32.

My crystal ball says 1.45 by Dec. 31 -2008.

LaoPo

[gregybn]

Vegas Vic sez... By all means I would encourage you to hang on to all your gold

You betcha VV... without a freaking doubt.

(Physical stuff, of course!)

Have been since 2001... and it's been a really fun ride.

And as I watch Au going to top $1000...

And Ag just about over $20...

I'm one HAPPY camper...

And I'm gonna be WAY happier... when all the underrated and underperforming Jr.'s PM's (=leverage!!!) start off to the moon...

(As they will - very soon).

Chok Dee Krap

[VegasVic]

Vegasvic,

You have been vocal in your call that bullion prices are overvalued for sometime even as they have gone up further - and that those who invest in them are morons. Obviously you look silly at the moment but that doesnt worry me - people telling investors to dump internet stocks near the end of their up cycle would have looked silly at first too.

I just wonder what makes you so convinced that current prices are so ridiculously overvalued.

Abrak, The term morons seems a bit strong, I do recall using the term fools but not morons, if indeed I did use the term morons then you have my sincere apology. I did take the position in late August of 2007 here on TV when gold was $670/ounce that a year later gold would be lower than $670, and 6 months from now if gold is say $1100/ounce I will gladly admit that I was incorrect, if on the other hand gold is lower than $670/ounce or dropping precipitously in that direction then I will feel vindicated. As for the reasons I believe that gold (and many other commodities) is in a bubble, I have enumerated those in many of my past posts, however I will touch on a few of them once again. (1) The cost of bringing gold out of the ground and to market has changed very little in the last 5-6 years (about $250-$275/ounce on average) (2) Gold is one of those rare elements that never corrodes or decays, and hence every ounce of gold that has ever been mined since the begining of time is still with us, unlike other commodities that have to be replenished (3) Industrial and commercial demand for gold has been decreasing, for the most part due to high tech substitutes like ceramics in dental industry (4) Due to rising inflation in Asia (china in particular), Europe, and elseware around the globe we will soon be seeing the same dynamic that is going on in Thailand and Vietnam now, which is people selling their gold holdings (bulion,coins and jewelry) at these heightened levels to raise cash (this could also hold true for central banks very soon) (5) Being from Chicago I still have many friends at the BOT, CBOE and the Merc, and they have consistently told me that there is an abnormal speculative premium in both gold and oil, and with all the doom and gloom prognostications and self fulfilling prophecies this has been an easy buck for those trading these commodities, but the true gold bugs and the suckers late to the party won't sell until the run is over and the price has corrected because they are true believers and think that gold is going to $2000/ounce because the world is falling apart! (6) A good portion of golds rise over the last 5 years can be tracked to the weakening dollar, because gold, and oil for that matter are priced in dollars, and as the dollar begins to rebound later this year and beyond, that pressure alone will cause gold to drop even if you discount reasons 1-5! As the world economic engine slows, oil will begin to drop and gold will follow oils lead also. To all those out there smart enough to take advantage in the price escalation of gold and actually trade the metal to make real money that you can spend, kudos to you! To all those true believers out there and the poor chaps that are getting sucked in at these levels, well you know how I feel, I would wish you good luck but I kind of view you guys like I do a deaf man walking down the railroad tracks with a train coming up behind him and blowing its horn, but the deaf man just continues down the track because he just can't hear.

[gregybn]

but the true gold bugs and the suckers late to the party won't sell until the run is over and the price has corrected because they are true believers and think that gold is going to $2000/ounce because the world is falling apart!

VV... it's already over $2000 (in hugely inflated 1980 dollars)

The gold bull is just warming up... it'll be a wild ride, for those willing/able to hang on...

And for those smart enuff to jump off at the right time - there'll be some tasty profits!

Timing - as always... and the healthy balance between greed and fear!

BUT... ya can't get on the ride, if ya don't have a ticket?

To all those out there smart enough to take advantage in the price escalation of gold and actually trade the metal to make real money that you can spend, kudos to you!

Thanks, Vic... not many folks appreciate us contrarians!

Chok Dee Krap to you, in your future - metals or not.

[VegasVic]

but the true gold bugs and the suckers late to the party won't sell until the run is over and the price has corrected because they are true believers and think that gold is going to $2000/ounce because the world is falling apart!

VV... it's already over $2000 (in hugely inflated 1980 dollars)

The gold bull is just warming up... it'll be a wild ride, for those willing/able to hang on...

And for those smart enuff to jump off at the right time - there'll be some tasty profits!

Timing - as always... and the healthy balance between greed and fear!

BUT... ya can't get on the ride, if ya don't have a ticket?

To all those out there smart enough to take advantage in the price escalation of gold and actually trade the metal to make real money that you can spend, kudos to you!

Thanks, Vic... not many folks appreciate us contrarians!

Chok Dee Krap to you, in your future - metals or not.

Thanks Greg! You are absolutely correct that inflation adjusted from the former record levels of 28 years ago gold is probably more like $2500/ounce, and of course the only reason it reached those heights back then is because the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the world silver market (and nearly did!) and drove silver from $4/ounce to nearly $50/ounce and gold came along for the ride. This time around there is a different dynamic at work, but basically its the same ponzi scheme with no real underlying fundamentals to support it. I do have a colection of uncirculated $20 U.S. gold pieces and Morgan silver dollars, but I always looked upon it as a hobby not an investment, however I must say that if gold were to crack that $1000 level and silver the $20 level I would be very tempted to liquidate the colection knowing full well that I could start another colection at 50 cents on the dollar a year or two from now. In any event Chok Dee Krap right back at you, and don't forget to find a chair when the music stops!

[ray23]

Yesterday

THB/USD trf 31.91, cash 31.81

Today 31.30 cash 32.20 SCB

Today Bloomberg ran segment on currenyy. The traders are still predicting a turn around in the second half of the year for the dollar.

Thai Baht buckle up boys I think we are in for bumpy ride, the BOT says it is doing away with 30% rule within days

[maxcrc]

for nearly 2½ years the message from anal-ysts of nearly all big multinational financial institutions (and multi-billion losers!) is that the dollar will rebound, especially vs. the €UR. they still insist on a rebound but have finally started to add a cautious sentence or two.

this is the latest from Morgan Stanley (short version):

EUR: Door to Downside Still Open. Although price

action has been hemmed in the 1.44 to 1.48 range, we

maintain a negative bias on EUR/USD. We were recently

stopped out of a tactical EUR/USD short, but still believe

in the trade. That said, we would wait for stronger signals

from economic data or fixed income markets before reestablishing

EUR/USD shorts.

Forecasts 2008E

Spot 1Q08E 2Q08E 3Q08E 4Q08E

€/$ 1.47 1.44 1.41 1.39 1.32

That s true for some ANAL-ists , but for the real analysts the projection of a dollar rebound was given at "some point" during 2008 and I share this view. (I answered this question in Yahoo answer ).

Of course the today's economical news , a string of terrible news one after another cannot support a dollar recovering at the moment and instead speculators are making party by playing on it and on damned oil futures,

but of course it cannot last this way for long.

The dollar rebound -gradual- will start exactly when better economic news (the first good ones) will come out.

I saw in past posts you are well informed and skilled about past economic statistics so I am sure you cannot miss noting this detail:

-2008: ELECTORAL YEAR year after a Republican Government (it means cheap dollar policy) lowest point of the dollar versus the euro

-2000: 8 years before.... ELECTORAL YEAR , after 8 years of Democrat governemt (strong dollar policy)...HIGHEST point of dollar versus the synthetic euro in that cycle (0.82 $ for 1 ecu)

-1992: 8 years before.... ELECTORAL YEAR, after Republican Government (cheap dollar policy)...LOWEST point of dollar versus synthetic euro (1.452 depends of how you calculate the synthetic euro can be slightly different) in that cycle

-1985: 7 years before....1 year after the electoral year, after Democratic Government (strong dollar policy)...HIGHEST point of dollar versus ECU

Be sincere, you think they are ALL COINCIDENCES ? May we try to be rational and see that , despite all stories , fundamentals, markets, etc..., there are almost designed cycles of economic policies ?

Ok, if there are all coincidences, a chain of coincidences, why not one more coincidence ? :-)

All this is referred to EUR-$ cycles, I am not talking about the baht at this moment,...

ah, one comment about forecast.com ...their predictions are exaggerated and almost never correct. 1.32 $ to euro for this June looks almost impossible, unless speculators will outperform themeselves and decide overnight to buy $ massively , but i don t think so. 1.40-1.45 for year end looks more a balanced view.

I have received a rumor from a well-informed economist who has very good contacts who told me "The buck will need 6 to 7 years to get back where it was". Likely, but of course it will also depend on who will sit in the Whitehouse. Hillary would have been the best guarantee of a strong dollar.

Edited February 29, 2008 by maxcrc

[maxcrc]

for nearly 2½ years the message from anal-ysts of nearly all big multinational financial institutions (and multi-billion losers!) is that the dollar will rebound, especially vs. the €UR. they still insist on a rebound but have finally started to add a cautious sentence or two.

this is the latest from Morgan Stanley (short version):

EUR: Door to Downside Still Open. Although price

action has been hemmed in the 1.44 to 1.48 range, we

maintain a negative bias on EUR/USD. We were recently

stopped out of a tactical EUR/USD short, but still believe

in the trade. That said, we would wait for stronger signals

from economic data or fixed income markets before reestablishing

EUR/USD shorts.

Forecasts 2008E

Spot 1Q08E 2Q08E 3Q08E 4Q08E

€/$ 1.47 1.44 1.41 1.39 1.32

It looks as though MS is on the same page as GS. Goldman has their CYQ4 at about $1.32 for the Euro and $1.80 for the pound. This will make the dollar look strong, but in reality much of the new found strength later this year will just be the pound and Euro getting weaker because of the economic and real estate downturn in GB and Europe later this year. 2009 will see the dollar strenghtening in real terms as President McCain ends porkbarrel spending and brings fiscal conservatisim back to the federal government, and in a trade off the Dems will get tougher trade policy. If I were a Canadian, Brit, Aussie,European or Asian and I was contemplating buying real estate(with one caveat-condos in Florida) in the U.S. I wouldn't wait too much longer, given the current exchange rates and the fact that Sam Zell (the man who knows more than any living human about the U.S. real estate market)came out this morning and said that the U.S. real estate market has bottomed and will begin to turn up by late spring, now is the time to pick up the bargains. The hilbama debate is about to start and I do love a great comedy team, so I will have to leave now

Great. I agree. The best way of making huge profit is by buying something when is at its weakest point.

People who are selling dollars now for euros or CAD or whatever will be double-losers, becuase they haven t gain in the past years and they will loose in the next years.

That s why speculators always make money and small (or unskilled) investors get ruined: TIMING :small investors see something good when it is already too late, too expensive ....

For this people without experience I would advice to buy and keep swiss francs... Swiss Franc is always stable and strong...it doesn t have so huge fluctuactions like $ ,euros, Aussie (from over 2 to almost 1.05 !)...

If you want to sleep well all your life without losing money and don t care to speculate in the middle term , keep swiss francs...

it is the best sleep-inducing and sweet dreams currency. It doesn t guarantee big profits, but it guarantees stability

Edited February 29, 2008 by maxcrc

[SNGLIFE]

Blah, Blah , Blah

Everyone's speculating about what the speculators are doing/will do. Where's the beef? Identify a single catalyst that signals the dollar will reverse. I double dare ya.

[PCA]

Blah, Blah , Blah

Everyone's speculating about what the speculators are doing/will do. Where's the beef? Identify a single catalyst that signals the dollar will reverse. I double dare ya.

[maxcrc]

Blah, Blah , Blah

Everyone's speculating about what the speculators are doing/will do. Where's the beef? Identify a single catalyst that signals the dollar will reverse. I double dare ya.

I identified a clear clue above.... just read the post above...

There are almost perfect cycles of 8 years with the dollar-euro exchange rate reaching its peak in 1985,1992,2000 and now 2008,always in the elctoral years (or in the case of 1985 few months later).

Tell me they are all coincidences ... for decades exchange rates have being driven that way ....

Evrything had been prepared since Bush administration took office. I knew that at least since 2001, in fact I sold all my dollars in 2002. You can still find websites written by people really informed who wrote all this stuff 6-7 years ago and predicted the dollar between 1.3 and 1.4 when it was 0.85.

Most of people didn t believe or didn t want to believe and asked for a single catalyst to think unstoppable dollar was doomed to devaluate.

8 years later, story isl repeating, as repeated in 2000, 1992 and 1985.

Currency exchange market is a bluff, it is just a tool in the hands of few ones and the The Chicago Board of Trade is the same. They play with futures as we play Monopoli.

[VegasVic]

Blah, Blah , Blah

Everyone's speculating about what the speculators are doing/will do. Where's the beef? Identify a single catalyst that signals the dollar will reverse. I double dare ya.

I identified a clear clue above.... just read the post above...

There are almost perfect cycles of 8 years with the dollar-euro exchange rate reaching its peak in 1985,1992,2000 and now 2008,always in the elctoral years (or in the case of 1985 few months later).

Tell me they are all coincidences ... for decades exchange rates have being driven that way ....

Evrything had been prepared since Bush administration took office. I knew that at least since 2001, in fact I sold all my dollars in 2002. You can still find websites written by people really informed who wrote all this stuff 6-7 years ago and predicted the dollar between 1.3 and 1.4 when it was 0.85.

Most of people didn t believe or didn t want to believe and asked for a single catalyst to think unstoppable dollar was doomed to devaluate.

8 years later, story isl repeating, as repeated in 2000, 1992 and 1985.

Currency exchange market is a bluff, it is just a tool in the hands of few ones and the The Chicago Board of Trade is the same. They play with futures as we play Monopoli.

Hello Max! I just finished responding to one of your posts on another thread and now I found you over here, once again presenting some great insight and a logical objective though process. Its funny you mention the BOT, I grew up in the Chicago suburbs and have a great many friends still at the BOT, Merc and CBOE. They all basically have the same take on the current situation, that is that gold and oil have an extreme speculative premium currently and they all have either exited positions recently or have an exit strategy in place. They also see the Euro/dollar as having reached a tipping point, however two of them think that the Euro could see as high as $1.55 before the tumble begins. I mentioned this before, but it bears repeating, while the Euro and pound(to a lessor degree) are still strong, it would be a great time for Europeans to pick up some real estate on the cheap in the U.S., I have noticed that Canadians have been going crazy buying up real estate in the U.S. southwest since last summer. I also noticed this week that T. Boone Pickens came out with a strong short on oil and NG, he sees oil dropping to $85/bbl before the end of May, and Mr. Pickens definately knows the oil business Oh yes, some final words of advise for SNGLIFE and PCA, I don't know if either of you gentlemen have any substantial investment dollars to work with, but if you do and you are currently buying gold and Euro's then I can promise you one thing, by the end of the year you will likely have a substantially smaller pool of funds available to you.

[Naam]

-2000: 8 years before.... ELECTORAL YEAR , after 8 years of Democrat governemt (strong dollar policy)...HIGHEST point of dollar versus the synthetic euro in that cycle (0.82 $ for 1 ecu)

not 2000 but january 2002 = 6 years.

[highdiver]

-2000: 8 years before.... ELECTORAL YEAR , after 8 years of Democrat governemt (strong dollar policy)...HIGHEST point of dollar versus the synthetic euro in that cycle (0.82 $ for 1 ecu)

not 2000 but january 2002 = 6 years.

Dear Naam.

please do not let facts get in the way of a good discussion.

[PCA]

Blah, Blah , Blah

Everyone's speculating about what the speculators are doing/will do. Where's the beef? Identify a single catalyst that signals the dollar will reverse. I double dare ya.

I identified a clear clue above.... just read the post above...

There are almost perfect cycles of 8 years with the dollar-euro exchange rate reaching its peak in 1985,1992,2000 and now 2008,always in the elctoral years (or in the case of 1985 few months later).

Tell me they are all coincidences ... for decades exchange rates have being driven that way ....

Evrything had been prepared since Bush administration took office. I knew that at least since 2001, in fact I sold all my dollars in 2002. You can still find websites written by people really informed who wrote all this stuff 6-7 years ago and predicted the dollar between 1.3 and 1.4 when it was 0.85.

Most of people didn t believe or didn t want to believe and asked for a single catalyst to think unstoppable dollar was doomed to devaluate.

8 years later, story isl repeating, as repeated in 2000, 1992 and 1985.

Currency exchange market is a bluff, it is just a tool in the hands of few ones and the The Chicago Board of Trade is the same. They play with futures as we play Monopoli.

Hello Max! I just finished responding to one of your posts on another thread and now I found you over here, once again presenting some great insight and a logical objective though process. Its funny you mention the BOT, I grew up in the Chicago suburbs and have a great many friends still at the BOT, Merc and CBOE. They all basically have the same take on the current situation, that is that gold and oil have an extreme speculative premium currently and they all have either exited positions recently or have an exit strategy in place. They also see the Euro/dollar as having reached a tipping point, however two of them think that the Euro could see as high as $1.55 before the tumble begins. I mentioned this before, but it bears repeating, while the Euro and pound(to a lessor degree) are still strong, it would be a great time for Europeans to pick up some real estate on the cheap in the U.S., I have noticed that Canadians have been going crazy buying up real estate in the U.S. southwest since last summer. I also noticed this week that T. Boone Pickens came out with a strong short on oil and NG, he sees oil dropping to $85/bbl before the end of May, and Mr. Pickens definately knows the oil business Oh yes, some final words of advise for SNGLIFE and PCA, I don't know if either of you gentlemen have any substantial investment dollars to work with, but if you do and you are currently buying gold and Euro's then I can promise you one thing, by the end of the year you will likely have a substantially smaller pool of funds available to you.

Thank you Mr. VV but your advice came too late as I am sitting on a couple of gold contracts since tuesday. You think I should pray?

[maxcrc]

Blah, Blah , Blah

Everyone's speculating about what the speculators are doing/will do. Where's the beef? Identify a single catalyst that signals the dollar will reverse. I double dare ya.

I identified a clear clue above.... just read the post above...

There are almost perfect cycles of 8 years with the dollar-euro exchange rate reaching its peak in 1985,1992,2000 and now 2008,always in the elctoral years (or in the case of 1985 few months later).

Tell me they are all coincidences ... for decades exchange rates have being driven that way ....

Evrything had been prepared since Bush administration took office. I knew that at least since 2001, in fact I sold all my dollars in 2002. You can still find websites written by people really informed who wrote all this stuff 6-7 years ago and predicted the dollar between 1.3 and 1.4 when it was 0.85.

Most of people didn t believe or didn t want to believe and asked for a single catalyst to think unstoppable dollar was doomed to devaluate.

8 years later, story isl repeating, as repeated in 2000, 1992 and 1985.

Currency exchange market is a bluff, it is just a tool in the hands of few ones and the The Chicago Board of Trade is the same. They play with futures as we play Monopoli.

Hello Max! I just finished responding to one of your posts on another thread and now I found you over here, once again presenting some great insight and a logical objective though process. Its funny you mention the BOT, I grew up in the Chicago suburbs and have a great many friends still at the BOT, Merc and CBOE. They all basically have the same take on the current situation, that is that gold and oil have an extreme speculative premium currently and they all have either exited positions recently or have an exit strategy in place. They also see the Euro/dollar as having reached a tipping point, however two of them think that the Euro could see as high as $1.55 before the tumble begins. I mentioned this before, but it bears repeating, while the Euro and pound(to a lessor degree) are still strong, it would be a great time for Europeans to pick up some real estate on the cheap in the U.S., I have noticed that Canadians have been going crazy buying up real estate in the U.S. southwest since last summer. I also noticed this week that T. Boone Pickens came out with a strong short on oil and NG, he sees oil dropping to $85/bbl before the end of May, and Mr. Pickens definately knows the oil business Oh yes, some final words of advise for SNGLIFE and PCA, I don't know if either of you gentlemen have any substantial investment dollars to work with, but if you do and you are currently buying gold and Euro's then I can promise you one thing, by the end of the year you will likely have a substantially smaller pool of funds available to you.

Thank you Mr. VV but your advice came too late as I am sitting on a couple of gold contracts since tuesday. You think I should pray?

well no, just sell them in few weeks (or months) and take the profit. If gold will touch $1000 you will be already make profit. For the short term you it is still ok, apparently many japanese investors bought palladium futures few weeks ago and well, i think they CANNOT COMPLAIN of they proft they have made in few weeks.

With the Japanese interest rates the same profit they would have made in decades.

But the mistake some investors occur sometimes is that the confuse short term and long term investment, they think they can keep making in the long term the same incredible (and lucky) profits they make in the short term and this can be a bad mistake. Keep watch the prices and be ready to sell and keep the profit at any time.

Dont forget profit (or losses) are consolidated or effective only after you sell that piece of paper.

[Naam]

-2000: 8 years before.... ELECTORAL YEAR , after 8 years of Democrat governemt (strong dollar policy)...HIGHEST point of dollar versus the synthetic euro in that cycle (0.82 $ for 1 ecu)

not 2000 but january 2002 = 6 years.

Dear Naam.

please do not let facts get in the way of a good discussion.

i just apologised to Max in another thread as he was right and i was wrong

[koheesti]

-1985: 7 years before....1 year after the electoral year, after Democratic Government (strong dollar policy)...HIGHEST point of dollar versus ECU

1985 was 5 years INTO Reagan's Republican administration.

I'm not sure about this but isn't the Federal Reserve INDEPENDENT? I don't think that the President or Congress dictates to them when to cut/raise rates and by how much. Or do they?

[maxcrc]

-1985: 7 years before....1 year after the electoral year, after Democratic Government (strong dollar policy)...HIGHEST point of dollar versus ECU

1985 was 5 years INTO Reagan's Republican administration.

I'm not sure about this but isn't the Federal Reserve INDEPENDENT? I don't think that the President or Congress dictates to them when to cut/raise rates and by how much. Or do they?

to tell you the truth I dont believe in their complete independency.

I think cycles must go on otherwise it wouldn t be possible to speculate always on things which prices go always in the same direction.

Just think the fact that if you buy something cheap and price is raising to get the max. profit you have to sell it at its highest peak just before the trend changes.

If trend never changes it is pointless it cannot work more than once.

We will see in few months if I am right or not, I cannot bet my last penny on it, but I am pretty much convinced about the relationship of $-euro-gold . Damned oil is also a part of the equation.

If you search in Internet there was a guy with a website I created early in 2002 who predicted almost exactly all what it has happened (and he said everything was a plan well prepared by the current administration)...well, few people believed to him, I was also skepctical but right today I give credit to him and to the advice of buy euros 6 years ago,amongst other things (gold, oil,...all this guy's predictions were exact).

[LivinLOS]

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Now into the 72's... Watch for the carry trade.. Surprised that yen in 102's hasnt caused more unwind.. Has to be getting really close to some threat levels tho.

What is it they say ?? Man who picks bottoms just ends up with smelly fingers..

[uncletom]

The dollar has been dropping consitently for years due to many factors. To step back and take an honest look, the real chance of a sure come back would be dependent on if the Democrats take the Presidency and complete control of the Senate floor.

At this stage another Republican president would insure that there is no assurance of a quick come back and could quite spur a new growth for decline. I am unbiased for from my experiences both of the parties are of the same feather to a big majority and can interwind and tangle themselves in both parties business if it fancies them and they have garthered that it can better their personal positon for what ever needs he or she deems fit.

Hope for the Democrats for the dollar to rebound.

[BigSnake]

I for one hope it rebound big time.

[maxcrc]

The dollar has been dropping consitently for years due to many factors. To step back and take an honest look, the real chance of a sure come back would be dependent on if the Democrats take the Presidency and complete control of the Senate floor.

At this stage another Republican president would insure that there is no assurance of a quick come back and could quite spur a new growth for decline. I am unbiased for from my experiences both of the parties are of the same feather to a big majority and can interwind and tangle themselves in both parties business if it fancies them and they have garthered that it can better their personal positon for what ever needs he or she deems fit.

Hope for the Democrats for the dollar to rebound.

You see why I said the worn and torn Democrat primaries are indirectly affecting the $.

Simple, if Hillary would have been the winner and already Democratic candidate she could start to deliver plans similar to her husband's which implies a strong dollar policy.

Now we have a Republican candidate who can start to unify the party under his candidacy and a unified program,but still no Democrat candidate.

Anyway world economy is highly unbalanced. We are in the hands of speculators and euro at 1.54$, oil at $106 and gold almost at 1000$ is a very strained situation.

Specially the damned oil what it is basically doing is ruining the poorest...

the lower the level of the society, the more affected are people from oil prices.

Oil prices (which moves contrary to the dollar, just like euro and gold) affect EVERYTHING: there is nobody in the world who can spare of being affected by this.

If you pay more for your taxi, bus, petrol, rice, cookies, energy, everything , every bloody item has its part of the final cost to customers affected by oil prices.

Money are all running away from billions of people and being "magnetized" or sucked by few ones who has got oil or just oil futures.

It is just putting an extra tax to all people in the world and few ones share the monstruos ammount of all this money.

Oil is the evil.

Edited March 7, 2008 by maxcrc

[cclub75]

You see why I said the worn and torn Democrat primaries are indirectly affecting the $.

Simple, if Hillary would have been the winner and already Democratic candidate she could start to deliver plans similar to her husband's which implies a strong dollar policy.

"Hillary" ? "strong dollar policy" ?

You are using very strange words...

I mean are you sure to have taken the full account of the current dramatic situation ?

You still believe that this poor "Hillary" can do something about it ? With a "strong dollar policy" ?

I wrote it previously : it's a never ending source of amazement for me to see people still hoping, still trying to paste the same good old recipes and views on totally new situations, ad nauseam...

"Dollar is down. It will go up, it's the cycle mister".

Sure.

British people were saying the same after WW I regarding the GBP.

Edited March 7, 2008 by cclub75

[maxcrc]

You see why I said the worn and torn Democrat primaries are indirectly affecting the $.

Simple, if Hillary would have been the winner and already Democratic candidate she could start to deliver plans similar to her husband's which implies a strong dollar policy.

"Hillary" ? "strong dollar policy" ?

You are using very strange words...

I mean are you sure to have taken the full account of the current dramatic situation ?

You still believe that this poor "Hillary" can do something about it ? With a "strong dollar policy" ?

I wrote it previously : it's a never ending source of amazement for me to see people still hoping, still trying to paste the same good old recipes and views on totally new situations, ad nauseam...

"Dollar is down. It will go up, it's the cycle mister".

Sure.

British people were saying the same after WW I regarding the GBP.

Very strange words ? Not at all,I see reality, contrary to you.

It is clear Bill Clinton would be the real man in charge under Hillary and he is adamant with his policies which had given to USA one of the best economical performance ever in US history.

When he took office dollar was just coming its lowest level and economy was in disarray.

new situation ? not at all, it is the same sh.... everytime just with a disguise .

We are not taliking about failed economic recepits, we are talking about the most succesful ones in modern american history.

Anyway, I have already posted the 8 years cycles $-euros which have been running for all these decades and I did it with FACTS by showing the $-ecu peaks reached during these cycles in the past decades and these cannot be confuted, these are facts. Numbers are numbers. I didn t say this is the Bible and it will like this indefinitely, but I believe it and we will see soon.

You are good to criticize but I didn t see any number you shown to back your theory.(if you have any).

Anyway,now it is nonsense to say I am right you are wrong or vice-versa,even the ANAL-ists and economists desagree , so only time will tell us ....

Edited March 7, 2008 by maxcrc

[uncletom]

The certainty is that under a continuing Republican administration, the dollar should/will be destined to plummit more. Anti is the feeling of the world towards the U.S and its outline policies. Unfortunatley the U.S takes the wrap for most of it but the bitter line is that England,the U.S other elect contries and elite corporations are to blame all as one untit. The Big oil bastards, YES. Yes there are cycles and history has at times seems to repeat itself, but even the cycle of history repeatig itself has fallen out from continuing to do so by a o the mark cycle of time. Maybe instead of 8 years it will be 9. Are those 8 year cycle dependent on back to back election wins keeping the continuity of who ever is the head of the U.S? Cinton 8. Bush 8 and so forth. But in the times before these back to back presidencies, It would be safe to say that the world economies did flunctuate and weren't of the norm. Perhaps it is a 4 year consistency, 8 year consistency.

Just a thought. I am a registerd but non practicing republican. I vote for the best person I see fit.