Thaksin To Come Home This Week

[george]

EX-PM'S RETURN

Thaksin to come home this week

Democrats urge calm, but PAD threatens to hold protests

BANGKOK: -- Former premier Thaksin Shinawatra will return home later this week to defend himself against corruption charges, a leading member of the People Power Party (PPP) said yesterday.

A pro-Thaksin website, Hi-Thaksin.net, yesterday urged his supporters to gather at the Suvarnabhumi Airport on Thursday morning to "welcome home Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whom we love, miss and have been waiting for his return for over a year".

The PPP member, who asked not to be named, said Thaksin would issue a statement giving the schedule for his return, including the date and flight number. The statement will be uploaded to a pro-Thaksin website, www.truethaksin.com, today at noon.

Thaksin will explain how he will deal with the cases and what he plans to do next once he is back in Thailand, the source said.

However, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) said yesterday it would oppose Thaksin's return and threatened to revive street protests, which in 2006 led to a political crisis and finally a military coup that ousted him from the premiership.

The recent speculation about Thaksin's return followed news that his diplomatic passport has been returned to him. It would be his first time back home since the coup on September 19, 2006 while he was in New York to attend a United Nations meeting.

Political scientist Kanin Boonsuwan said Thaksin had the right to return, but it would not be acceptable for him to interfere in the legal process that was scrutinising him.

Kanin criticised the PAD, comprised of fierce opponents of Thaksin, saying its members should not exploit Thaksin's return to cause trouble or involve the Army in a conflict.

The Assets Examination Committee (AEC), which investigated corruption charges against Thaksin, said it was good to hear Thaksin would return to defend himself. The AEC members do not feel pressured by his return, spokesman Sak Korsaengruang said.

A Supreme Court judge, who asked not to be named, said Thaksin could ask the court for permission to leave the country after surrendering to face arrest warrants against him. The court would definitely allow him to go abroad as the only charges that bar people from leaving the country are those involving drugs, the judge said.

Army chief Gen Anupong Paochinda said Thaksin had the right to defend himself against the charges and warned all parties to let the legal process continue and not do anything to disrupt it.

The military will not intervene in case of confrontations between supporters and opponents of Thaksin without an order from the government, Anupong said.

PM's Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair said it was unacceptable for any party to stage protests because the country was recovering from a crisis and the people were suffering from economic problems. However, the PAD had the right to stage protests as long as they did not cause trouble or violate the law, he said.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said his party had long called for Thaksin's return to face the charges against him. He warned the PAD to be careful and strictly follow the law in its latest moves as it could cause violence.

He said he would talk to PAD leader Somkiat Pongpaiboon, also a party-list Democrat MP, and Somkiat should consult the party's executives before making any further moves.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej reportedly will allow his party members to meet Thaksin after his return, but these should be regarded as personal meetings rather than on behalf of the party.

-- The Nation 2008-02-25

[Donnyboy]

A pro-Thaksin website, Hi-Thaksin.net, yesterday urged his supporters to gather at the Suvarnabhumi Airport on Thursday morning to "welcome home Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whom we love, miss and have been waiting for his return for over a year".

better avoid Suvarnabhumi thursday morning, theres gonna be a long convoy of rice wagons parked up there

[Jingthing]

So fast? So a deal has been made, eh?

[Sandstone Art]

And tomorrow's verdict about the house speaker will be that he is going to be a 'free man'

So, that pave the home coming trip for toxin.

Only super-natural forces can tame this devil. Thailand is bracing another 'invisible storm' soon....

[Donnyboy]

Samak cant be controlled enough from HK, so Thaky has to be in the country to get a better grip on the strings....

if Samak doesnt obey, we will see him go, but I have the feeling he will stick around till Mr T gets sick of him making a fool outa himself and his party.

[gjones]

This is going to fun!

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Madness.

[LaoPo]

"The "Big Boss" is coming home!"

Finally, after more than a year of self-imposed exile shuttling between England and Hong Kong, deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was reported to be returning to his motherland next month, about two months ahead of schedule. It was also reported he will be given a hero's welcome at Suvarnabhumi airport by his faithful followers.

From: http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/25Feb2008_news16.php

21 August 1983 springs to mind...don't know why...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/s...000/2534945.stm

1983: Filipino opposition leader shot dead

The Philippines opposition leader, Benigno Aquino, has been assassinated just minutes after returning home from exile.

The Thai Government better have some security around....if something happens the country is in a mess...big time.

LaoPo

[Martin]

More theatre.

OK, so long as Thaksinomics doesn't return. That would not be entertaining.

[plachon]

More theatre. More Chinese or Greek tragedy spring to mind? It's certainly not going to be comedy, even though this govt is making a comedy of errors at every step of the way.

OK, so long as Thaksinomics doesn't return. That would not be entertaining.

C'mon Martin - Thaksinomics returned already - ever since Samak got the job or hadn't you noticed?

[farang prince]

Madness.

I agree with you Dr. Pat. It's the first time in a month that I'm glad I'm in Iraq.

[gunnyd]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/s...000/2534945.stm

1983: Filipino opposition leader shot dead

The Philippines opposition leader, Benigno Aquino, has been assassinated just minutes after returning home from exile.

The Thai Government better have some security around....if something happens the country is in a mess...big time.

LaoPo

Thaksin's story will go more like this:

First this happened:

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has pardoned former President Joseph Estrada who was convicted in September of corruption and sentenced to life in prison.

http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/200...FTOKEN=90939592

And now here's the thanks he's giving her:

Estrada to support Arroyo impeachment

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/...oyo-impeachment

And here's the first photo in Thaksin's photo gallery, What balls.

Edited February 26, 2008 by gunnyd

[younghusband]

"The "Big Boss" is coming home!"

Finally, after more than a year of self-imposed exile shuttling between England and Hong Kong, deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was reported to be returning to his motherland next month, about two months ahead of schedule. It was also reported he will be given a hero's welcome at Suvarnabhumi airport by his faithful followers.

From: http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/25Feb2008_news16.php

21 August 1983 springs to mind...don't know why...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/s...000/2534945.stm

1983: Filipino opposition leader shot dead

The Philippines opposition leader, Benigno Aquino, has been assassinated just minutes after returning home from exile.

The Thai Government better have some security around....if something happens the country is in a mess...big time.

LaoPo

As I predicted we are now getting fantasies of assassinations.Excited thoughts of coups will follow.

[george]

Pro-Thaksin site claims ex-premier returning in two days

BANGKOK: -- Pro-Thaksin site hi-thaksin .net has revealed that Thaksin Shinawatra is due back in Thailand on February 29 at 9:00am.

The message on the site also urged supporters of the ousted prime minister to greet him at Suvarnabhumi airport.

There has been no confirmation on Mr Thaksin's behalf on the exact time and date of his expected return although it's believed he has plans to disclose the details sometime today through another website, www.truethaksin.com .

Mr Thaksin is currently believed to be in China.

-- Bangkok Post 2008-02-26

[geriatrickid]

Perhaps I am misreading, but I certainly hope no one is taking any joy from the imminent threats to personal well being Thaksin faces.Step back for a minute and consider the chaos that would ensue if something happened to him. Do you think his supporters would simply say oh dear, that's too bad? I think not. There would be violent retaliations and many lives would be lost and property destruction would ensue. For those foreigners hoping something bad happens to him, thing twice and maybe keep a good thought for his safety as alot of the anger would be directed at those foreigners real and imagined that were seen as wanting harm to come to him.

In my converstaions with my Thai friends, who are usually very hesitant to discuss politics they have come right out and told me that if something happens to Thaksin, they "know" foreigners would be implicated and they would be displeased. These guys are not from Bangers, but are from the smaller rural areas and cities from which Thaksin drew his support. This is their perception, whether it is justified or not. To be blunt, as close as they are to me, I felt alot of resentment towards foreigners come bubbling up.

My greatest fear is that if something bad happens to Thaksin, alot of foreign residents are going to suffer for it.

[Big A]

See you all at Swampyboom on Thursday morning. I'll be the one with the rotten eggs and tomatoes stall!! All produce guaranteed rotten (and free).

[steveromagnino]

Samak would prefer to do away with toxin and ruin the country on his own. (he is equally as evil, just not as clever)

remember that toxin insulted [edited].... a key person. thais never forget.

it will be a good show for sure.

that alledged insult is not to be talked about - perhaps people are talking about the protocol at greeting guests, that photo - those are the only things in the public eye; of course there is the well documented significant business relationship culminating in a person having to turn down the offer to be a director of a national asset sold illegally to the Singaporeans but that is hardly an insult to anyone just clear proof of the ties between lines of caretaker govt, significant other's family and private companies. Be that as it may you could be surprised how many people upcountry love Thaksin above ALL others - have a chat to taxi drivers, rural folk and you might be surprised how similar the mood of Thailand is to France pre revolution these days.

A lot of the shots at invisible hands and the privvy council has IMHO been a proxy test to see how to break the mystique, and using a fair bit of research, I suspect PPP/TRT have figured out right now they DO have a chance to move the roles of govt vs. other lines of authority back to pre 1950 again rather than the more active role we have seen of unelected government in the 60s - 90s. Scraps to the hoi poloi carries a lot of weight when you pretend to care. Apparently.

With a changing of the guard people making moves was inevitable. That's the real battle right now.

With regards to basic brain power, for TRT/PPP the solution is obvious.

Thaksin pays a largish fine and gets a suspended community service setence and 1 year ban - all 111 are reduced to 1 eyar ban. Samak introduces some new controls to reduce the levels of personal enrichment as per Sudarat Suriya, Thaksin.... PAD is happy, upcountry is happy, THaksin gets by for one more year watching Spurs beat his s7*tbox team.

He would then get reelected in a year, suitably punished, and could trough feed for 8 years to his heart's content. His plan is:

- get CAT/TOT

- get EGAT

- get some banks

- get Bangkok's transportation

- get the few hospitals he doesn't have already

Of course... we all know the maniac is not going to do this when he hasn't listened to his advisors since around 2004.

If he is seen not to be punished, there are some people in BKK that will NOT let it go. And some have some deep pockets. They will nip and bite enough times that life could be a bit rough politically for him. But as I said, he is a moron.

Edited February 26, 2008 by steveromagnino

[Plus]

I Thaksin dies, everyone will shut up and contemplate the situation for a while. If they don't find a scapegoat soon, the anger will simply die out. The will be wile speculations and a lot of finger pointing, but no street mobs lynching foreigners, or anyone else.

If Thaksin comes back and is seen as getting away scotfree, protests against him will start all over again and sooner or later we will have violent mobs clashing with each other. There's not doubt about that, not in my mind.

The only way to avoid confrontation is for the courts to deal with him fairly and squarely. At the moment it means taking away his passport and we'll see how it plays out pretty soon. If he's allowed to leave the country and come and go as he pleases - we are on the road to violence.

Maybe his hasty return is timed to a ruling on Yongyuth's case. If it goes against him, Thaksin will be there to mobilise crowds to protect him and PPP. Maybe Thaksin smells that PPP is in danger, it means bringing people on the streets is his only option. He probably has multiple reasons for return, though.

[KireB]

To accuse Toxin of this is to accuse him of breaking a very serious law so I ask you to bring some evidence that he did this....I don't think you will find any. The idea was created by journalistic and political spin...through selective interpretation of one of his more or less offhand comments....in my opinion.

Chownah

Spot on, Thaksin hardly break rules and abides clearly to the laws.

That he changes these laws for his own benefits, seems to be of no importance to you.

[ilyushin]

Guess he can collect envelopes as he passes thru the airport on arrival. Sad news how this guy has to have a grand entrance at the cost of the country. Thailand not Thaksinland

Is this guy really that important? Wanted and guilty, yes. He needs to be arrested on arrival ( in air space) and detained until court date. There need not be a huge group of people to meet him. The government should only allow him to enter at a remote air field and then transport by rotor to the court house. No bail only jail.

This human shield tactic is not what we need as not only Doc Tox could be injured, but will fuel the divisions among the Thai people and some spats or worse may occur.

Come on security, avoid a mess by only allowing him a flight into Utapao and then by UH-1H to the Justice Department.

Additionally, FM Nappadon should face charges for issuing a dip passport to a charged criminal.

This is gonna be a mess just to get press.

Be careful and stay away from the airport if he comes back.

Edited February 26, 2008 by ilyushin

[John K]

Good analysis Plus, wait for the EC to rule. I suspect it will be thumbs down for Mr. Y. But Thaksin will no doubt tamper with the courts.

[younghusband]

I Thaksin dies, everyone will shut up and contemplate the situation for a while. If they don't find a scapegoat soon, the anger will simply die out. The will be wile speculations and a lot of finger pointing, but no street mobs lynching foreigners, or anyone else.

So in that scenario the people of Thailand would quietly contemplate the situation.... and eventually any anger would evaporate.

Dream on, Plus.

[Jingthing]

Is this really happening? It is starting to smell like some kind of bizarre trial balloon.

[geriatrickid]

I Thaksin dies, everyone will shut up and contemplate the situation for a while. If they don't find a scapegoat soon, the anger will simply die out. The will be wile speculations and a lot of finger pointing, but no street mobs lynching foreigners, or anyone else.

How well do you know Thai people, particularly the mentality his supporters?

Suppose some foreigner actually did something like this:

See you all at Swampyboom on Thursday morning. I'll be the one with the rotten eggs and tomatoes stall!! All produce guaranteed rotten (and free).

I think there would be collateral damage.

[Donnyboy]

theres one thing certain, there wont be just a friendly golf game between Thaky and Gen. Sonthi. It will be interesting to see how all this plays out; in movie terms, it kinda reminds me of the Star Wars movies,

Darth Vader (Thaky) comes back in Empire Strikes Back after being kicked out into space, and meanwhile Luke (Sonthi) sees his mentor (Prem) destoyed by Vader, and chaos ensues between good and evil

[Plus]

Thaksin is just one man, he doesn't represent anything but himself. People love him, but if he is dead it's the end. There's no legacy to protect. Killing Martin Luter King didn't stop the movement to end racial discriminaiton, he was just a symbol. Thaksin is not a symbol of anything.

The anger will be there, but without clear target it is bound to subside. What else are they going to do? Storm Prem's house?

I don't believe in assassination theory, btw. I don't think anyone is really planning it, though some would secretly hope someone else did it.

[younghusband]

though some would secretly hope someone else did it.

And some not so secretly.Boy are the long latent assasination fantasies out in the open now! The suggestion that nothing would happen after such an event is self evidently the thought of someone who doesn't understand history (or completely lost in self deception)

For other Benny Aquino scenario nostalgists, they should remember what happened afterwards.(Actually Cory was cut of much the same cloth as Marcos but that's another-though relevant-story.)

[britmaveric]

[John K]

Well even Thaksin played the assassination card with his car bomb that was not. So there is no reason to not include it in this round of play.

Edited February 26, 2008 by John K

[Plus]

though some would secretly hope someone else did it.

And some not so secretly.Boy are the long latent assasination fantasies out in the open now! The suggestion that nothing would happen after such an event is self evidently the thought of someone who doesn't understand history (or completely lost in self deception)

For other Benny Aquino scenario nostalgists, they should remember what happened afterwards.

Thaksin is no Aquino. He doesn't stand for anything but himself. He doesn't stand for democracy, he doesn't stand for freedom, he doesn't represent any strugle, there's nothing to continue on after he is gone.

Do you understand that? If you disagree - can you tell what is the mission his supporters are supposed to carry on? Apart from storming Prem's residence in blind rage there's nothing they can do. Torch and loot discriminately? Unlikely.