Euro Or Gbp ?

[kerr17]

Hi all,

Having the possibility, would you rather be paid in Euro or English Pounds?

I have some doubts about Sterling at the moment and i was thinking to switch to Euro as it seems much more stable,

the Euro seems to be much stronger with the bath, but of course , i'm not an expert,

thanks

[JimmyGreaves]

Euro

[kerr17]

Euro

thanks,

that's what i thought too.

Is there any reason why you say that?

I see that the tendency is the Euro to be stable and the sterling to decrease against the bath, i may be wrong but as i said Euro looks more stable to me.

any other view on this?

[chiang mai]

I think it may be horses for courses at this point - the big gain in Euro vs GBP has already been had, 15% since last year and I remain unconvinced it will gain much more. The yield on GBP remains good and with no more than 50 basis points in cuts likely I would guess it's going to remain that way. I guess in your situation I might be 50.1% in favor of the Euro.

[naka]

Euro may have already peaked ... but what do I know.

Naka.

[britmaveric]

Sterling if I have a choice.

[bingobongo]

neither, go long Japanese Yen, notice I said yen and NOT Japenese stocks, big difference

[libya 115]

I think it may be horses for courses at this point - the big gain in Euro vs GBP has already been had, 15% since last year and I remain unconvinced it will gain much more. The yield on GBP remains good and with no more than 50 basis points in cuts likely I would guess it's going to remain that way. I guess in your situation I might be 50.1% in favor of the Euro.

Some good points from 'chiang mai' but I think:

Sterling. Without a doubt. For the following reasons:

Look at the countries in EURO land. Germany and France are steady but Spain and Italy have big problems ahead. Although the EURO is strong against the US$ and GBP now, once the USA really does spiral into recession and interest rates hit 0.5% in the USA then this will have a knock on effect in Europe and the EURO will slide quickly.

This will make Sterling a good bet.

Plus: When the Bank Of England announces inflation rates in the U.K. on March 18th (currently 2.2%) expect them to be above 3%. This will halt any further interest rate cuts in the U.K. and probably in the third/fourth quarter interest rates will have to rise again in the U.K.

I would not touch the YEN the central banks will intervene and aim for a steady 115 YEN=US$

A safe haven will be CHF as usual.

[kerr17]

I think it may be horses for courses at this point - the big gain in Euro vs GBP has already been had, 15% since last year and I remain unconvinced it will gain much more. The yield on GBP remains good and with no more than 50 basis points in cuts likely I would guess it's going to remain that way. I guess in your situation I might be 50.1% in favor of the Euro.

Some good points from 'chiang mai' but I think:

Sterling. Without a doubt. For the following reasons:

Look at the countries in EURO land. Germany and France are steady but Spain and Italy have big problems ahead. Although the EURO is strong against the US$ and GBP now, once the USA really does spiral into recession and interest rates hit 0.5% in the USA then this will have a knock on effect in Europe and the EURO will slide quickly.

This will make Sterling a good bet.

Plus: When the Bank Of England announces inflation rates in the U.K. on March 18th (currently 2.2%) expect them to be above 3%. This will halt any further interest rate cuts in the U.K. and probably in the third/fourth quarter interest rates will have to rise again in the U.K.

I would not touch the YEN the central banks will intervene and aim for a steady 115 YEN=US$

A safe haven will be CHF as usual.

Excellent point, thanks

[PCA]

Hi all,

Having the possibility, would you rather be paid in Euro or English Pounds?

I have some doubts about Sterling at the moment and i was thinking to switch to Euro as it seems much more stable,

the Euro seems to be much stronger with the bath, but of course , i'm not an expert,

thanks

I would chose Euro for the moment as it has another 10 % to go from the current level before facing a kind of resistance based on long term charts. This might take another year or so. Nevertheless prices will turn again the sooner or the later and the best option if you have the chance to chose is a clause in your contract that you can switch the currency once a year. If you time that smart you will profit and your boss will probably have no objection as the time you switch he will think you might become cheaper. I assume you live in Thailand so there is to mention that the relative strength of EUR/THB compared to GBP/THB is also into your favor since quite a while and currencies tend to trend very long. You want to be on the right side and within the current long term trend I guess. Unexpected turns caused by real fundamental reasons might take you to hedge your money and can easily be done.

[libya 115]

Hi all,

Having the possibility, would you rather be paid in Euro or English Pounds?

I have some doubts about Sterling at the moment and i was thinking to switch to Euro as it seems much more stable,

the Euro seems to be much stronger with the bath, but of course , i'm not an expert,

thanks

I would chose Euro for the moment as it has another 10 % to go from the current level before facing a kind of resistance based on long term charts. This might take another year or so. Nevertheless prices will turn again the sooner or the later and the best option if you have the chance to chose is a clause in your contract that you can switch the currency once a year. If you time that smart you will profit and your boss will probably have no objection as the time you switch he will think you might become cheaper. I assume you live in Thailand so there is to mention that the relative strength of EUR/THB compared to GBP/THB is also into your favor since quite a while and currencies tend to trend very long. You want to be on the right side and within the current long term trend I guess. Unexpected turns caused by real fundamental reasons might take you to hedge your money and can easily be done.

'PCA' Do you believe that the EURO will appreciate another 10% against GBP? or US$ or both? If so please give the reasons why. The EURO is already at record highs against the US$ but there is a limit. I believe that the EURO is over-valued right now. 1.60 is possible but unlikely. Watch the collapse in April.

Likewise GBP : US$ reached 212 in intra day trading just a few months ago, yet it dropped back 17 cents in 30 days.

Clever people will buy US$ at GBP 210-215 then watch it steadily revalue to GBP 185 by year end.

[PCA]

Hi all,

Having the possibility, would you rather be paid in Euro or English Pounds?

I have some doubts about Sterling at the moment and i was thinking to switch to Euro as it seems much more stable,

the Euro seems to be much stronger with the bath, but of course , i'm not an expert,

thanks

I would chose Euro for the moment as it has another 10 % to go from the current level before facing a kind of resistance based on long term charts. This might take another year or so. Nevertheless prices will turn again the sooner or the later and the best option if you have the chance to chose is a clause in your contract that you can switch the currency once a year. If you time that smart you will profit and your boss will probably have no objection as the time you switch he will think you might become cheaper. I assume you live in Thailand so there is to mention that the relative strength of EUR/THB compared to GBP/THB is also into your favor since quite a while and currencies tend to trend very long. You want to be on the right side and within the current long term trend I guess. Unexpected turns caused by real fundamental reasons might take you to hedge your money and can easily be done.

'PCA' Do you believe that the EURO will appreciate another 10% against GBP? or US$ or both? If so please give the reasons why. The EURO is already at record highs against the US$ but there is a limit. I believe that the EURO is over-valued right now. 1.60 is possible but unlikely. Watch the collapse in April.

Likewise GBP : US$ reached 212 in intra day trading just a few months ago, yet it dropped back 17 cents in 30 days.

Clever people will buy US$ at GBP 210-215 then watch it steadily revalue to GBP 185 by year end.

libya,

there is not such a thing like over-, under or fair value not in currencies and not in any other market.

EUR/GPB the move most likely will not shoot up but trend is clearly north for the Euro. I would not advice to switch to the Euro right now or speculate with the current price levels but until 0.84 there is basically no resistance and reason for a trend reversal. A correction is over due but that doesnt mean much if happening or pointing to a change of trend.

Things got a bit out of control and overheated I have to agree but considering the question the OP asked, his decision will get him into one of both currencies for medium to long term and he should go with the current trend in the highest timeframe.

EUR/USD is hot, really hot and can get to 1.70 or further with ease - will it maintain that levels, probably not. There is a hype in Euro, Oil and Gold but betting on a reversal right now can break your balls.

[chiang mai]

Hi all,

Having the possibility, would you rather be paid in Euro or English Pounds?

I have some doubts about Sterling at the moment and i was thinking to switch to Euro as it seems much more stable,

the Euro seems to be much stronger with the bath, but of course , i'm not an expert,

thanks

I would chose Euro for the moment as it has another 10 % to go from the current level before facing a kind of resistance based on long term charts. This might take another year or so. Nevertheless prices will turn again the sooner or the later and the best option if you have the chance to chose is a clause in your contract that you can switch the currency once a year. If you time that smart you will profit and your boss will probably have no objection as the time you switch he will think you might become cheaper. I assume you live in Thailand so there is to mention that the relative strength of EUR/THB compared to GBP/THB is also into your favor since quite a while and currencies tend to trend very long. You want to be on the right side and within the current long term trend I guess. Unexpected turns caused by real fundamental reasons might take you to hedge your money and can easily be done.

'PCA' Do you believe that the EURO will appreciate another 10% against GBP? or US$ or both? If so please give the reasons why. The EURO is already at record highs against the US$ but there is a limit. I believe that the EURO is over-valued right now. 1.60 is possible but unlikely. Watch the collapse in April.

Likewise GBP : US$ reached 212 in intra day trading just a few months ago, yet it dropped back 17 cents in 30 days.

Clever people will buy US$ at GBP 210-215 then watch it steadily revalue to GBP 185 by year end.

I agree

[libya 115]

Hi all,

Having the possibility, would you rather be paid in Euro or English Pounds?

I have some doubts about Sterling at the moment and i was thinking to switch to Euro as it seems much more stable,

the Euro seems to be much stronger with the bath, but of course , i'm not an expert,

thanks

I would chose Euro for the moment as it has another 10 % to go from the current level before facing a kind of resistance based on long term charts. This might take another year or so. Nevertheless prices will turn again the sooner or the later and the best option if you have the chance to chose is a clause in your contract that you can switch the currency once a year. If you time that smart you will profit and your boss will probably have no objection as the time you switch he will think you might become cheaper. I assume you live in Thailand so there is to mention that the relative strength of EUR/THB compared to GBP/THB is also into your favor since quite a while and currencies tend to trend very long. You want to be on the right side and within the current long term trend I guess. Unexpected turns caused by real fundamental reasons might take you to hedge your money and can easily be done.

'PCA' Do you believe that the EURO will appreciate another 10% against GBP? or US$ or both? If so please give the reasons why. The EURO is already at record highs against the US$ but there is a limit. I believe that the EURO is over-valued right now. 1.60 is possible but unlikely. Watch the collapse in April.

Likewise GBP : US$ reached 212 in intra day trading just a few months ago, yet it dropped back 17 cents in 30 days.

Clever people will buy US$ at GBP 210-215 then watch it steadily revalue to GBP 185 by year end.

libya,

there is not such a thing like over-, under or fair value not in currencies and not in any other market.

EUR/GPB the move most likely will not shoot up but trend is clearly north for the Euro. I would not advice to switch to the Euro right now or speculate with the current price levels but until 0.84 there is basically no resistance and reason for a trend reversal. A correction is over due but that doesnt mean much if happening or pointing to a change of trend.

Things got a bit out of control and overheated I have to agree but considering the question the OP asked, his decision will get him into one of both currencies for medium to long term and he should go with the current trend in the highest timeframe.

EUR/USD is hot, really hot and can get to 1.70 or further with ease - will it maintain that levels, probably not. There is a hype in Euro, Oil and Gold but betting on a reversal right now can break your balls.

'PCA' actually there is such a thing as -over, -under valued currencies. However I agree that this is not the 'proper' language of economists. (And I am am not an economist) just an amateur and still learning.

The correct terminology would be: The EURO equilibrium.

UIP (uncovered interest parity) equates interest rates with respect to risk and future expected interest rates.

Traded goods between countries where the exchange rate of countries (with higher inflation) will seek to depreciate. This is called PPP ( Purchasing PowerParity) so stronger growth in the productivity leads to an appreciation of exchange rate.

[kerr17]

to be back in topic, what i was previously offered before in Sterling i will now get about 5-10% less in euro (Sterling was about at 70 with the Bath and Euro was more or less the same as it is now against the bath) so i would probably loose 5-10% of what i was offered originally converting my money in Euro now.

The main problem is that I'm scared that this 5-10% may be even bigger in the near future.

So should i get stucked with the Sterling or convert to Euro (or US dollars) taking in consideration the lose that i will make converting my money from Sterling to Euro now?

Hope that make sense,

cheers

Edited March 14, 2008 by kerr17

[PCA]

Hi all,

Having the possibility, would you rather be paid in Euro or English Pounds?

I have some doubts about Sterling at the moment and i was thinking to switch to Euro as it seems much more stable,

the Euro seems to be much stronger with the bath, but of course , i'm not an expert,

thanks

I would chose Euro for the moment as it has another 10 % to go from the current level before facing a kind of resistance based on long term charts. This might take another year or so. Nevertheless prices will turn again the sooner or the later and the best option if you have the chance to chose is a clause in your contract that you can switch the currency once a year. If you time that smart you will profit and your boss will probably have no objection as the time you switch he will think you might become cheaper. I assume you live in Thailand so there is to mention that the relative strength of EUR/THB compared to GBP/THB is also into your favor since quite a while and currencies tend to trend very long. You want to be on the right side and within the current long term trend I guess. Unexpected turns caused by real fundamental reasons might take you to hedge your money and can easily be done.

'PCA' Do you believe that the EURO will appreciate another 10% against GBP? or US$ or both? If so please give the reasons why. The EURO is already at record highs against the US$ but there is a limit. I believe that the EURO is over-valued right now. 1.60 is possible but unlikely. Watch the collapse in April.

Likewise GBP : US$ reached 212 in intra day trading just a few months ago, yet it dropped back 17 cents in 30 days.

Clever people will buy US$ at GBP 210-215 then watch it steadily revalue to GBP 185 by year end.

libya,

there is not such a thing like over-, under or fair value not in currencies and not in any other market.

EUR/GPB the move most likely will not shoot up but trend is clearly north for the Euro. I would not advice to switch to the Euro right now or speculate with the current price levels but until 0.84 there is basically no resistance and reason for a trend reversal. A correction is over due but that doesnt mean much if happening or pointing to a change of trend.

Things got a bit out of control and overheated I have to agree but considering the question the OP asked, his decision will get him into one of both currencies for medium to long term and he should go with the current trend in the highest timeframe.

EUR/USD is hot, really hot and can get to 1.70 or further with ease - will it maintain that levels, probably not. There is a hype in Euro, Oil and Gold but betting on a reversal right now can break your balls.

'PCA' actually there is such a thing as -over, -under valued currencies. However I agree that this is not the 'proper' language of economists. (And I am am not an economist) just an amateur and still learning.

The correct terminology would be: The EURO equilibrium.

UIP (uncovered interest parity) equates interest rates with respect to risk and future expected interest rates.

Traded goods between countries where the exchange rate of countries (with higher inflation) will seek to depreciate. This is called PPP ( Purchasing PowerParity) so stronger growth in the productivity leads to an appreciation of exchange rate.

me neither have much a clue of economical science but what I know is that history, exaggeration and trend are the fuel that drive prices. Fundamentally one can be so sharp and right to the point and still losing his shirt as the market doesnt care. Price goes where the paper (orders) is and the only thing you can trust to be true is the trend (until it has reached its end, hehehe). In hindsight you might be able to explain fundamental impacts but at the very now (when you make a decision) you dont have more than an opinion based on facts and media releases which are either unimportant, forged or too late. Speculation and nothing else determines market prices, not so much demand and supply. Its all an old game mastered and manipulated by a few in order to play ping pong with you and me.

[PCA]

to be back in topic, what i was previously offered before in Sterling i will now get about 5-10% less in euro (Sterling was about at 70 with the Bath and Euro was more or less the same) so i would probably loose 5-10% of what i was offered originally converting my money in Euro now.

The main problem is that I'm scared that this 5-10% may be even bigger in the near future.

So should i get stucked with the Sterling or convert to Euro (or US dollars) taking in consideration the lose that i will make converting my money from Sterling to Euro now?

Hope that make sense,

cheers

As I told you the best is to set up a clause in your contract allowing you to switch eventually. If you dont get that approved you can chose between 2 scenarios:

you switch now and the current trend holds up and you win 10% (or more) while running the risk that it was excactly the wrong time to do so and the trend turns which gives you a loss of 2% for every 1% because you face the loss of being on the wrong side then plus missing the gain in case you wouldnt have switched.

or you dont switch, hold your breath and stand this through until at an uncertain time things will play into your favor which definitely will be the case the sooner or the later.

What I still dont understand is if you currently get paid in Baht or Pound but anyway nobody can make the decision for you and in case you have to chose one time without the option to switch in the future I would suggest that you flip a coin and wish you good luck.

[Naam]

What I still dont understand is if you currently get paid in Baht or Pound but anyway nobody can make the decision for you and in case you have to chose one time without the option to switch in the future I would suggest that you flip a coin and wish you good luck.

BINGO! anything else is unsubstantiated bla-bla respectively reading chicken entrails

[kerr17]

to be back in topic, what i was previously offered before in Sterling i will now get about 5-10% less in euro (Sterling was about at 70 with the Bath and Euro was more or less the same) so i would probably loose 5-10% of what i was offered originally converting my money in Euro now.

The main problem is that I'm scared that this 5-10% may be even bigger in the near future.

So should i get stucked with the Sterling or convert to Euro (or US dollars) taking in consideration the lose that i will make converting my money from Sterling to Euro now?

Hope that make sense,

cheers

What I still dont understand is if you currently get paid in Baht or Pound but anyway nobody can make the decision for you and in case you have to chose one time without the option to switch in the future I would suggest that you flip a coin and wish you good luck.

I get paid Pound at the moment.

I know is like flipping a coin but is nice to hear someone else opinion, I don't think i can put that as a clause and I think if i have to make a change is better then do it now or never.

In the end i would probably be stuck with the Pound i guess.

Thanks all

Edited March 14, 2008 by kerr17

[pliny]

What I still dont understand is if you currently get paid in Baht or Pound but anyway nobody can make the decision for you and in case you have to chose one time without the option to switch in the future I would suggest that you flip a coin and wish you good luck.

BINGO! anything else is unsubstantiated bla-bla respectively reading chicken entrails

Mmmmm......so, you think a strategy has no value?

As dismal as it gets, economics do observe laws and sometimes the runes are there to be read provided you follow a soothsayer worth his salt.

Ultimately, the USD will rebound and the Euro may be the loser. The GBP has a way to go yet before bottoming at a rate more representative of the debt burden and the forthcoming recession and I wouldn't rule out eventual occasional parity with the Euro.

But then, whither the Baht?

[libya 115]

What I still dont understand is if you currently get paid in Baht or Pound but anyway nobody can make the decision for you and in case you have to chose one time without the option to switch in the future I would suggest that you flip a coin and wish you good luck.

BINGO! anything else is unsubstantiated bla-bla respectively reading chicken entrails

Nothing wrong with reading chicken entrails. But I prefer to read the I-Ching!

Yes, currency speculators often end up in the bankruptcy courts. There is nothing as sure as unsureness in the currency markets etc. etc.

I still think that it would be safest to be paid in gold (because it has been inflation-proof since the Romans invaded Britain). That is to say the same amount of gold back then, bought exactly the same numbers of bottles of same quality wine as it does now.

[PCA]

What I still dont understand is if you currently get paid in Baht or Pound but anyway nobody can make the decision for you and in case you have to chose one time without the option to switch in the future I would suggest that you flip a coin and wish you good luck.

BINGO! anything else is unsubstantiated bla-bla respectively reading chicken entrails

Nothing wrong with reading chicken entrails. But I prefer to read the I-Ching!

Yes, currency speculators often end up in the bankruptcy courts. There is nothing as sure as unsureness in the currency markets etc. etc.

I still think that it would be safest to be paid in gold (because it has been inflation-proof since the Romans invaded Britain). That is to say the same amount of gold back then, bought exactly the same numbers of bottles of same quality wine as it does now.

as soon you would be paid in gold it loses all, its myth its value and its glance. Gold should be treated with respect as it is the king of all desires. You get it, you give it or you better dont touch it. Just a joke with some superstition in it.