Housing Bubble To Hit Los

[norrona]

roygsd...

your question:

will uk and other european investors choose to invest in the condo market in thailand in the current worldwide uncertainty especially when on a good day

there are some many disadvantages for a non thai before you start?

I dont think the condo market will collapse in thailand but I do think that the ivestment into that market will be drastically reduced over the next few years. I have no doubt that proposed projcects will now be moth balled as they are being in the uk at the moment.

the answer is YES they will be buying and buying a lot more. in all price range.

the price of a condo in BKK is a fraction of what the same will cost in any European capital or resort town.

an individual looking not to invest but to buy a second home or a holiday home will find the prices in BKK a bargain.

you can also take into consideration that life in Thailand on a daily basis is much cheaper then in Europe.

Gasoline prices in Europe are double if not more then Thailand. and the price of food and daily expenses in a fraction of what the prices are in Europe.

a live in maid that cooks does laundry and clean your house will cost in Thailand around 7000 baht. in europe you will not be able to afford this type of high serviced life style. Medical cost are alos a fraction of what they are in Europe.

At the end of the day Living in Thailand is easy and you end up spending less for a better life style..and its those that understand this that are buying the condos.

If you are a retired individual living on your pension you have a choice: live very modestly in Europe and spend your savings to survive or a very high standard of living in Thailand for a fraction of the cost. same goes for retirees from US and the Pacific area.

My neighbor in Samui is a retired Brit. his pension is very modest in UK terms. he gets 1800 pounds per month. after paying the city taxes electric bills etc... he ended up living very modestly.

however he did have a small house in london. he sold it 5 years ago and bought a condo in BKK and a 30 year lease on a large beach house in Samui.

after that he was still left with a lot of change. he now spend his time in BKK and in samui and his pension which is about 100,000 baht is more then enough to live like a rich person.

As long as Thailand will offer Foreigners a high standard of life that will be more Value for money then the west. foreigners will keep on buying properties.

£1800 as a pension is very good to live on in the U.K, especially when you get a free health service, bus pass and lots of pension credits, and by then you shouldn't have a mortgage to pay out for if you've done it right.

yes i agree thailand is a cheap place to live, but health insurance only covers so many things and even less the older you are and privately what would normally take a hospital a week of rehabilitation time you can guarantee the hospitals in thailand would keep you in for over twice that time at a cost to you everyday...from my experience anyway.

agree about the second home thing, but just who looks after your second home whilst your not there....anyone reliable?

[MJo]

Interesting for me this is buy signal (but I have already bought ). I know donx is taking an independent look at the (condominium) sales issue, but from a personal perspective I would have thought that Thaivisa would actually be a forum of last resort, for a desperate seller. I honestly cannot recall a problem in this area (but look no one is infallible, especially me I have problems just with spelling!).

Got me thinking, maybe all these guys claiming 60% profits in 3 years or high returns in rentals are desperate sellers in real life hoping to lure unsuspecting TV newbies into buying....

I actually agree with roysgd, there is oversupply and it takes months if not years to sell unless you are pepared to give 20 to 30% discount. Sure there is buyers with money looking for place to retire but i doubt they alone will be able to keep Bangkok condo market up and running. At least 51% of it must be in Thai hands

This message has not been edited for spelling

[pkrv]

roygsd...

your question:

will uk and other european investors choose to invest in the condo market in thailand in the current worldwide uncertainty especially when on a good day

there are some many disadvantages for a non thai before you start?

I dont think the condo market will collapse in thailand but I do think that the ivestment into that market will be drastically reduced over the next few years. I have no doubt that proposed projcects will now be moth balled as they are being in the uk at the moment.

the answer is YES they will be buying and buying a lot more. in all price range.

the price of a condo in BKK is a fraction of what the same will cost in any European capital or resort town.

an individual looking not to invest but to buy a second home or a holiday home will find the prices in BKK a bargain.

you can also take into consideration that life in Thailand on a daily basis is much cheaper then in Europe.

Gasoline prices in Europe are double if not more then Thailand. and the price of food and daily expenses in a fraction of what the prices are in Europe.

a live in maid that cooks does laundry and clean your house will cost in Thailand around 7000 baht. in europe you will not be able to afford this type of high serviced life style. Medical cost are alos a fraction of what they are in Europe.

At the end of the day Living in Thailand is easy and you end up spending less for a better life style..and its those that understand this that are buying the condos.

If you are a retired individual living on your pension you have a choice: live very modestly in Europe and spend your savings to survive or a very high standard of living in Thailand for a fraction of the cost. same goes for retirees from US and the Pacific area.

My neighbor in Samui is a retired Brit. his pension is very modest in UK terms. he gets 1800 pounds per month. after paying the city taxes electric bills etc... he ended up living very modestly.

however he did have a small house in london. he sold it 5 years ago and bought a condo in BKK and a 30 year lease on a large beach house in Samui.

after that he was still left with a lot of change. he now spend his time in BKK and in samui and his pension which is about 100,000 baht is more then enough to live like a rich person.

As long as Thailand will offer Foreigners a high standard of life that will be more Value for money then the west. foreigners will keep on buying properties.

£1800 as a pension is very good to live on in the U.K, especially when you get a free health service, bus pass and lots of pension credits, and by then you shouldn't have a mortgage to pay out for if you've done it right.

yes i agree thailand is a cheap place to live, but health insurance only covers so many things and even less the older you are and privately what would normally take a hospital a week of rehabilitation time you can guarantee the hospitals in thailand would keep you in for over twice that time at a cost to you everyday...from my experience anyway.

agree about the second home thing, but just who looks after your second home whilst your not there....anyone reliable?

Interesting - My dad could have lost his leg when an NHS knee replacement went wrong after a year or two. The time he was quoted even for a preliminary apointment was 6 months. He went private at the cost of about 10,000 GBP (in the UK), and was told if he had left it any longer he would have lost his leg (it was a bit of a mess).

On security for a second home - I can only speak about condominiums - There is a legaly enforced Juristic team backed up by security - think limited access 3/4/5/6/7 star hotel.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

roygsd...

your question:

will uk and other european investors choose to invest in the condo market in thailand in the current worldwide uncertainty especially when on a good day

there are some many disadvantages for a non thai before you start?

I dont think the condo market will collapse in thailand but I do think that the ivestment into that market will be drastically reduced over the next few years. I have no doubt that proposed projcects will now be moth balled as they are being in the uk at the moment.

the answer is YES they will be buying and buying a lot more. in all price range.

the price of a condo in BKK is a fraction of what the same will cost in any European capital or resort town.

an individual looking not to invest but to buy a second home or a holiday home will find the prices in BKK a bargain.

you can also take into consideration that life in Thailand on a daily basis is much cheaper then in Europe.

Gasoline prices in Europe are double if not more then Thailand. and the price of food and daily expenses in a fraction of what the prices are in Europe.

a live in maid that cooks does laundry and clean your house will cost in Thailand around 7000 baht. in europe you will not be able to afford this type of high serviced life style. Medical cost are alos a fraction of what they are in Europe.

At the end of the day Living in Thailand is easy and you end up spending less for a better life style..and its those that understand this that are buying the condos.

If you are a retired individual living on your pension you have a choice: live very modestly in Europe and spend your savings to survive or a very high standard of living in Thailand for a fraction of the cost. same goes for retirees from US and the Pacific area.

My neighbor in Samui is a retired Brit. his pension is very modest in UK terms. he gets 1800 pounds per month. after paying the city taxes electric bills etc... he ended up living very modestly.

however he did have a small house in london. he sold it 5 years ago and bought a condo in BKK and a 30 year lease on a large beach house in Samui.

after that he was still left with a lot of change. he now spend his time in BKK and in samui and his pension which is about 100,000 baht is more then enough to live like a rich person.

As long as Thailand will offer Foreigners a high standard of life that will be more Value for money then the west. foreigners will keep on buying properties.

£1800 as a pension is very good to live on in the U.K, especially when you get a free health service, bus pass and lots of pension credits, and by then you shouldn't have a mortgage to pay out for if you've done it right.

yes i agree thailand is a cheap place to live, but health insurance only covers so many things and even less the older you are and privately what would normally take a hospital a week of rehabilitation time you can guarantee the hospitals in thailand would keep you in for over twice that time at a cost to you everyday...from my experience anyway.

agree about the second home thing, but just who looks after your second home whilst your not there....anyone reliable?

Interesting - My dad could have lost his leg when an NHS knee replacement went wrong after a year or two. The time he was quoted even for a preliminary apointment was 6 months. He went private at the cost of about 10,000 GBP (in the UK), and was told if he had left it any longer he would have lost his leg (it was a bit of a mess).

On security for a second home - I can only speak about condominiums - There is a legaly enforced Juristic team backed up by security - think limited access 3/4/5/6/7 star hotel.

I agree with Highdiver and pkrv on the condos. There is no way I could afford the condo I have here in Australia or the US. Both of them would hit you heavy on maint. fees and the US property taxes would about cover your cost of living here.

But I'm not anxious to see a lot of people rush over here to buy condos as I like LOS the way it is. More farangs = more change, who needs it?

[highdiver]

look at the above post from PKRV very interesting. it seems like an exodus of the brits out of the UK.

add on top of that that all the baby boomer's born after WW2 are now reaching the age of pension with in the next 2-3 years and you have a very large mass of people who are on pension and are looking for value for money life style and how to live as best as they can on pensions.

Thailand and BKK is very cheap compared with the west even if the prices go up another 100 % it will still offer better value for money then in any main city destination in Europe.

I don't know how much it cost to be in a private hospital in Thailand for 2 weeks. I can only assume that if you did so in a UK hospital with the service level of a private Thai hospital it would make you bankrupt.

to get the subject back on track. housing in BKK is not gloomy and as one poster said if the prices are going down why cant he find a property with a discounted price.

[pkrv]

I agree with Highdiver and pkrv on the condos. There is no way I could afford the condo I have here in Australia or the US. Both of them would hit you heavy on maint. fees and the US property taxes would about cover your cost of living here.

But I'm not anxious to see a lot of people rush over here to buy condos as I like LOS the way it is. More farangs = more change, who needs it?

You know BEENTHEREDONETHAT I think you have one very healthy attitude to life.

Got me thinking, maybe all these guys claiming 60% profits in 3 years or high returns in rentals are desperate sellers in real life hoping to lure unsuspecting TV newbies into buying....

Don't be silly I bought at The Park. You can see the sales activity for the units there on this link.

http://www.prakard.com/default.aspx?g=topics&f=149

main link:

http://www.prakard.com/default.aspx?g=topics&f=5

You actually think I would sell something so beautiful? God I could never afford this kind of luxury in London and then retire! I would be up to my neck in debt. Here just bought with spare cash.

[jumnien]

Interesting for me this is buy signal (but I have already bought ). I know donx is taking an independent look at the (condominium) sales issue, but from a personal perspective I would have thought that Thaivisa would actually be a forum of last resort, for a desperate seller. I honestly cannot recall a problem in this area (but look no one is infallible, especially me I have problems just with spelling!).

Got me thinking, maybe all these guys claiming 60% profits in 3 years or high returns in rentals are desperate sellers in real life hoping to lure unsuspecting TV newbies into buying....

I actually agree with roysgd, there is oversupply and it takes months if not years to sell unless you are pepared to give 20 to 30% discount. Sure there is buyers with money looking for place to retire but i doubt they alone will be able to keep Bangkok condo market up and running. At least 51% of it must be in Thai hands

This message has not been edited for spelling

Last year we sold our Ratchadamri condo to a Thai couple. In fact, all of the people who came to look at it were Thai!

[jay-uk]

just to join in on this topic. i belive we could be heading for slow down in los as many westerners looking to buy over recent years were doing so in part as they had spare availible equity to release and spend from their main homes. property values decreased 2% last month alone in uk at the fastest pace since records begun following sub-prime issues in the US. some months back the so called experts were stating we would buck the trend and not follow the united states. not the case at all. thailand should be more careful around this time to shield from economic collapse and stop arguing within government which could fuel the problem in the long run making the crunch hit harder.

[pkrv]

to get the subject back on track. housing in BKK is not gloomy and as one poster said if the prices are going down why cant he find a property with a discounted price.

I too have seen this - I think it was cmsally (sorry if I got this wrong) who was looking, and had problems finding a condominium. At the time all we on Thiavisa could say was something along the lines of, we here on Thaivisa can only say what we we have experienced so far - the best advice is to test the market yourself. Oh and please report back - which he/she did (positively).

just to join in on this topic. i belive we could be heading for slow down in los as many westerners looking to buy over recent years were doing so in part as they had spare availible equity to release and spend from their main homes. property values decreased 2% last month alone in uk at the fastest pace since records begun following sub-prime issues in the US. some months back the so called experts were stating we would buck the trend and not follow the united states. not the case at all. thailand should be more careful around this time to shield from economic collapse and stop arguing within government which could fuel the problem in the long run making the crunch hit harder.

Is not the answer to your question, then don't buy? - just please don't do a bingobonkers on us if it goes pear shaped - I think the success of this thread is that he has not appeared!

Eventually we must all take responsibility for our own decisions. Buy, rent, live in a cave. I have chosen to buy and live in luxury but thats just me - what can you say. Oh I am not immortal BTW.

Edited June 4, 2008 by pkrv

[shochu]

i guess that's why most of the developers have been moving towards the local market of 2-3 million baht and less market - BECAUSE - there is so much demand from high flying westerners.

developers are the first in and the first out to where the economy is ususally headed - which - most of you guys who are trying to flog the trade obviously know.

[pkrv]

i guess that's why most of the developers have been moving towards the local market of 2-3 million baht and less market - BECAUSE - there is so much demand from high flying westerners.

developers are the first in and the first out to where the economy is ususally headed - which - most of you guys who are trying to flog the trade obviously know.

Although not in the market (just bought a unit at The Park) but keep my fingers on the pulse. Yes I believe quicksilva (deeply respected contributor to thaivisa) did discuss a market shift in development towards lower cost units that a certain bonkers person latched on to. Do you actually think there are no high end units going up? - God you blink and they are gone!

[highdiver]

i guess that's why most of the developers have been moving towards the local market of 2-3 million baht and less market - BECAUSE - there is so much demand from high flying westerners.

developers are the first in and the first out to where the economy is ususally headed - which - most of you guys who are trying to flog the trade obviously know.

Although not in the market (just bought a unit at The Park) but keep my fingers on the pulse. Yes I believe quicksilva (deeply respected contributor to thaivisa) did discuss a market shift in development towards lower cost units that a certain bonkers person latched on to. Do you actually think there are no high end units going up? - God you blink and they are gone!

the move for lower cost realty is an answer to those Thais who are now making more money and can afford to move up from a 1 million bt home to a 2-3 million bt home.

another reason as we spoke before is that not all retirees from the west are rich and some of them can not afford the deluxe brands. as such there is a growing market for smaller and cheaper units of 2-3 bedrooms that are under 100K usd. from those seeking an easier life with less expenses then in the west.

the best test is to try and look for an apartment for 50k pounds in London.

[MJo]

I too have seen this - I think it was cmsally (sorry if I got this wrong) who was looking, and had problems finding a condominium. At the time all we on Thiavisa could say was something along the lines of, we here on Thaivisa can only say what we we have experienced so far - the best advice is to test the market yourself. Oh and please report back - which he/she did (positively).

I guess high end like The Park will fly on buyer that have the money and dont care that much as long as they get the unit and level of luxury they are looking for. And sure, it's still cheaper than UK.

I've been looking/considering to buy last 8 months or so. Not as an investment but to live in myself.

And here's what i find so far...

Mainly following fairly new projects (say less than 3 years old) in lower sukhumvit and sathorn/narathiwas and first of all there is hundreds of units for sale and same units are still available 8 months after. Some have disappeared from the market as they have found tenants to lease. Very few have been actually sold. Now in past two months i have been getting calls also from Thais that are now offering discounts. Anything between 5 - 25% gradually. Couple of units asking 8M in January are now 7M and so on. Have not acted yet as i think there is propability that prices will continue to go down.

And just for the record, i'm not actually expecting a Bingo Crash type of total meltdown and mayhem but maybe they go bit more down or stay the same for a while... Crystal ball is bit hazy at the moment...

Then there was some projects like Sukhumvit City Resort and Manhattan Chidlom that took a dive before transfer. I guess this happens when flippers offload as they don't want to pay the final payments but never seen it in this scale before. There was loads of units for sale with discounted price. I do not consider the quality of construction and finishing to be up with the price so the problem might lie with that. Maybe overpriced already since launch. But as said would not buy for myself to live in. For investment and to rent out maybe.

So here you go, anyone else ?

[pkrv]

I too have seen this - I think it was cmsally (sorry if I got this wrong) who was looking, and had problems finding a condominium. At the time all we on Thiavisa could say was something along the lines of, we here on Thaivisa can only say what we we have experienced so far - the best advice is to test the market yourself. Oh and please report back - which he/she did (positively).

I guess high end like The Park will fly on buyer that have the money and dont care that much as long as they get the unit and level of luxury they are looking for. And sure, it's still cheaper than UK.

I've been looking/considering to buy last 8 months or so. Not as an investment but to live in myself.

And here's what i find so far...

Mainly following fairly new projects (say less than 3 years old) in lower sukhumvit and sathorn/narathiwas and first of all there is hundreds of units for sale and same units are still available 8 months after. Some have disappeared from the market as they have found tenants to lease. Very few have been actually sold. Now in past two months i have been getting calls also from Thais that are now offering discounts. Anything between 5 - 25% gradually. Couple of units asking 8M in January are now 7M and so on. Have not acted yet as i think there is propability that prices will continue to go down.

And just for the record, i'm not actually expecting a Bingo Crash type of total meltdown and mayhem but maybe they go bit more down or stay the same for a while... Crystal ball is bit hazy at the moment...

Then there was some projects like Sukhumvit City Resort and Manhattan Chidlom that took a dive before transfer. I guess this happens when flippers offload as they don't want to pay the final payments but never seen it in this scale before. There was loads of units for sale with discounted price. I do not consider the quality of construction and finishing to be up with the price so the problem might lie with that. Maybe overpriced already since launch. But as said would not buy for myself to live in. For investment and to rent out maybe.

So here you go, anyone else ?

This is exactly the shot in the arm this thread needs. You are the guy on the ground! All we can do is to assist, and I hope we here on Thaivisa do exactly that positivley or negatively!

I know that the Manhatten is finished

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=177314

and I have heard from someone who has moved in, first post:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...8207&st=175

Manhatten buys and sells shown here:

http://www.prakard.com/default.aspx?g=topics&f=157

What are you looking for BTS etc? positive response I can try a PM or two, but look those are favours.

Edited June 4, 2008 by pkrv

[MJo]

This is exactly the shot in the arm this thread needs. You are the guy on the ground! All we can do is to assist, and I hope we here on Thaivisa do exactly that positivley or negatively!

I know that the Manhatten is finished

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=177314

and I have heard from someone who has moved in, first post:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...8207&st=175

Manhatten buys and sells shown here:

http://www.prakard.com/default.aspx?g=topics&f=157

What are you looking for BTS etc? positive response I can try a PM or two, but look those are favours.

Prakard is great site for information, just took me a while to see thru all the agents and "for sale or rent" prices.

So far i've been considering couple of units from The Bangkok projects one in Soi 61, soi sub and narathiwas as well (usually asking around 80k per sqm, one for 73k per sqm). Oleander (aka Colony) in Soi 11 is very nice and still has units available direct from the developer. Price starts 92k per sqm and quality and location is good. Sukhumvit City Resort is next to Oleander in Soi 11 and the pool area is really nice. Unit quality is not good and requires new tiling in bathrooms etc to get it proper. Nusasiri in Ekamai is in the list but didn't have time to check it out yet.

Needs to be fairly close to BTS so next plan is to look new projects further down sukhumvit as the BTS extension will be done soon. I'm out of town at the moment and not able to walk around so if you know where to look info on these projects please PM me.

[GeorgeB]

I am at a loss to understand why people think prices in Bangkok are going to drop or dropping.

We had a coup, bombs went up and yes the market slowed down but never did prices drop.

If one can afford it the best place to buy is Sukhumvit sois 1 to 63 there is no secret about that.

I have a client who wants to buy in the Madison and within 10 dyas 3 units were sold there from underneath him. They were only 115,000 baht psm with no kitchen.........ONLY!

There simply aren't any bargains, prices are rising in prime locations and it's only in it's infancy.

Sure it might crash in the future but prices will continue to rise until then. When they do drop I doubt if they will ever fall below what they are being sold at now. It is still comparitively very cheap to buy in Bangkok

So Mr Smith comes here retires buys a condo for 15 million baht....3 years time it's worth 20 million one day and the next day the market takes a dive. Mayby it's then worth 16-17 million.

As Mr Smith has no intentions of selling he simply doesn't care. Why would he?

Those who are buying to sell on could get caught out but that's more than a few years away IMO

If anyone thinks we are going to have another 1997 type crash I think they are dreaming.

For me 150,000 baht psm will be commonplace in mid Sukhumvit within a year.

[pkrv]

This is exactly the shot in the arm this thread needs. You are the guy on the ground! All we can do is to assist, and I hope we here on Thaivisa do exactly that positivley or negatively!

I know that the Manhatten is finished

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=177314

and I have heard from someone who has moved in, first post:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...8207&st=175

Manhatten buys and sells shown here:

http://www.prakard.com/default.aspx?g=topics&f=157

What are you looking for BTS etc? positive response I can try a PM or two, but look those are favours.

Prakard is great site for information, just took me a while to see thru all the agents and "for sale or rent" prices.

So far i've been considering couple of units from The Bangkok projects one in Soi 61, soi sub and narathiwas as well (usually asking around 80k per sqm, one for 73k per sqm). Oleander (aka Colony) in Soi 11 is very nice and still has units available direct from the developer. Price starts 92k per sqm and quality and location is good. Sukhumvit City Resort is next to Oleander in Soi 11 and the pool area is really nice. Unit quality is not good and requires new tiling in bathrooms etc to get it proper. Nusasiri in Ekamai is in the list but didn't have time to check it out yet.

Needs to be fairly close to BTS so next plan is to look new projects further down sukhumvit as the BTS extension will be done soon. I'm out of town at the moment and not able to walk around so if you know where to look info on these projects please PM me.

Hi MJo - I think your situation is interesting because you report back honestly. I have sent out a few PM's to draw attention to the thread to see if we can get some help. The point here is to be open so I won't personally PM. I really only know the area around Chit Lom BTS (I am at 1 Chid Lom Road). It looks like you want something finished so not much now in the area. Interesting your comments on The Manhatten.

If I find anything I will repost here. But please report back to the thread it is very interesting to see what is happening on the ground so to speak.

[MJo]

I am at a loss to understand why people think prices in Bangkok are going to drop or dropping.

We had a coup, bombs went up and yes the market slowed down but never did prices drop.

If one can afford it the best place to buy is Sukhumvit sois 1 to 63 there is no secret about that.

I have a client who wants to buy in the Madison and within 10 dyas 3 units were sold there from underneath him. They were only 115,000 baht psm with no kitchen.........ONLY!

There simply aren't any bargains, prices are rising in prime locations and it's only in it's infancy.

Sure it might crash in the future but prices will continue to rise until then. When they do drop I doubt if they will ever fall below what they are being sold at now. It is still comparitively very cheap to buy in Bangkok

So Mr Smith comes here retires buys a condo for 15 million baht....3 years time it's worth 20 million one day and the next day the market takes a dive. Mayby it's then worth 16-17 million.

As Mr Smith has no intentions of selling he simply doesn't care. Why would he?

Those who are buying to sell on could get caught out but that's more than a few years away IMO

If anyone thinks we are going to have another 1997 type crash I think they are dreaming.

For me 150,000 baht psm will be commonplace in mid Sukhumvit within a year.

Good for you, business must be great. I guess we are going to see significant drop in agent fees shortly as prices are going thru the roof and sale times are closing one week mark

If you read the thread you see many here recognize the fact that there is always Mr. Smiths around who has the cash and will keep buying high end units as long as prices are lower than in Miami Beach.

Then there is few million Mr. Somchai's around. And question is can these few Mr. Smiths keep the market going up if Somchai's are out of business or simply stop buying?

In any case, last two months or so i have first hand being offered the first discounts on asking prices by Thai owners. But note, these units been in the range of 80 - 100k per sqm and dealing directly with owners i.e. no agents involved.

[pkrv]

I am at a loss to understand why people think prices in Bangkok are going to drop or dropping.

We had a coup, bombs went up and yes the market slowed down but never did prices drop.

If one can afford it the best place to buy is Sukhumvit sois 1 to 63 there is no secret about that.

I have a client who wants to buy in the Madison and within 10 dyas 3 units were sold there from underneath him. They were only 115,000 baht psm with no kitchen.........ONLY!

There simply aren't any bargains, prices are rising in prime locations and it's only in it's infancy.

Sure it might crash in the future but prices will continue to rise until then. When they do drop I doubt if they will ever fall below what they are being sold at now. It is still comparitively very cheap to buy in Bangkok

So Mr Smith comes here retires buys a condo for 15 million baht....3 years time it's worth 20 million one day and the next day the market takes a dive. Mayby it's then worth 16-17 million.

As Mr Smith has no intentions of selling he simply doesn't care. Why would he?

Those who are buying to sell on could get caught out but that's more than a few years away IMO

If anyone thinks we are going to have another 1997 type crash I think they are dreaming.

For me 150,000 baht psm will be commonplace in mid Sukhumvit within a year.

Good for you, business must be great. I guess we are going to see significant drop in agent fees shortly as prices are going thru the roof and sale times are closing one week mark

If you read the thread you see many here recognize the fact that there is always Mr. Smiths around who has the cash and will keep buying high end units as long as prices are lower than in Miami Beach.

Then there is few million Mr. Somchai's around. And question is can these few Mr. Smiths keep the market going up if Somchai's are out of business or simply stop buying?

In any case, last two months or so i have first hand being offered the first discounts on asking prices by Thai owners. But note, these units been in the range of 80 - 100k per sqm and dealing directly with owners i.e. no agents involved.

Just as a foot note around 100k psm was the absolute upper limit in 2005

[backflip]

"2 Million people just left the UK"

That's correct, and MORE than 2 million people have entered the UK. What's your point?

[pkrv]

"2 Million people just left the UK"

That's correct, and MORE than 2 million people have entered the UK. What's your point?

Hi backflip - I admit this is a pure guess, but essentially I believe those 2m who have left, will have departed with their assets, basically the value tied up in their homes. They are being replaced BUT, and I think this is key, by migrant workers. There is definitely a shift taking place.

Based on my own position (I am oddly not immortal ) and will have to retire, my plans are to do this in style. How many others plan the same? I have no facts or figure but note others on this forum are saying the same thing. Money is an issue here and getting the most (oh god I'm going to say it) 'bang for your buck' is something IMO to deeply consider.

In a way I am fortunate that relocating means little to me, and I have a link to the Far East through childhood (Hong Kong), so Thailand, more specifically Bangkok in my instance, is a logical choice.

Edited June 6, 2008 by pkrv

[think_too_mut]

The Economist :

Instead of regaining its reputation as an admired, fast-developing tiger, Thailand risks becoming one of those perennially unstable, tragi-comic countries, such as the Philippines, which the outside world overlooks.

[pkrv]

The Economist :

Instead of regaining its reputation as an admired, fast-developing tiger, Thailand risks becoming one of those perennially unstable, tragi-comic countries, such as the Philippines, which the outside world overlooks.

I think this is the link?

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displa...ory_id=11454958

Is it just me or was that balanced reporting?

Edited June 6, 2008 by pkrv

[cloudhopper]

Thanks for the Economist link pkrv I found it very informative, and the reader comments interesting too...

[think_too_mut]

Thanks for the Economist link pkrv I found it very informative, and the reader comments interesting too...

Of course the readers comments are good. The policy of this (and many other Thai related boards) is to stay away from too deep criticism of the country , which is the rule we all know and accept.

That climate has, perversely, led (and will continue) to the situation where members sniff each other's belly button and condemn those who refuse to live in that "deluded harmony".

Half of the comments from The Economist link would have been met with the most moronic and too common reply on this board "Go home if you don't like it here".

[donx]

Thanks for the Economist link pkrv I found it very informative, and the reader comments interesting too...

The following sentence from the article is what caught my attention the most:

"Even so, both sides in the conflict are talking up the chances of another coup—which would be the country's 19th since the absolute monarchy came to an end in 1932."

I had no idea that there have been so many coups in a country that has always seemed to me to be one of the more stable South East Asian countries.

[MJo]

Hi MJo - I think your situation is interesting because you report back honestly. I have sent out a few PM's to draw attention to the thread to see if we can get some help. The point here is to be open so I won't personally PM. I really only know the area around Chit Lom BTS (I am at 1 Chid Lom Road). It looks like you want something finished so not much now in the area. Interesting your comments on The Manhatten.

If I find anything I will repost here. But please report back to the thread it is very interesting to see what is happening on the ground so to speak.

Sure, i will be back in BKK in two or three weeks and plan is to look around again in lower Sukhumvit this time.

I guess i have nothing to lose or hide here. Especially as i'm not into investing property in Thailand. And in any case this information is available for all of us fairly easy. Just requires bit legwork and few phone calls. I also have found this forum to be good source on information and good opinions from others regarding what is going on in the market. So maybe my experiences looking units will benefit someone here.

[pkrv]

Thailand is going through a transition - Nothing more nothing less - every western country has done the same, so there are plenty of mechanisms of showing how to do it, and how to be an idiot. Though for the West it was a multi generational transition. Thailand has a tougher time of it in just one generation. Possibly a condensed form of 'you can't teach an old dog new tricks' vs 'you can't stop progress'?