Inflation In Thailand

[wasabi]

A Thai friend of mine is home visiting her family in Bangkok right now. She just reported since she was last there, which was 2 years ago, many prices have doubled. For example a meal from a street vendor that used to cost 50 might now cost 100 Baht. A bottle of water that was 10 Baht is now 20. She says gasoline has gotten much more expensive as well so cab fares are higher and many other things that are effected by transportation costs perhaps this even effects food? Are those living in Thailand noticing dramatic price increases? I have another friend who lives in Udon and she mentioned prices have not gone up that much. So from what I'm being told prices are skyrocketing in the major cities.

[rgs2001uk]

wasabi,

i have been living here for the time period you mentioned.

i dont know where your friend was shopping or if she is referring just to bangkok.

as for prices skyrocketing and/or doubling.

no,meals from street vendors havent doubled, still possible to buy tort man gai tamada for 25 baht and piset for 30 baht, yam wun sen for 25 baht, tom ga gai for 30 baht.

taxi fares have been the same rate for any meter taxi, most now run on lpg/ngv, sure in the tourist area where they run without putting on the meter or going from bangkok to pattaya the drivers will try it on.

you can still buy a bottle of water in any 7/11 for 10 baht, i have noticed the small bottles of fresh orange juice are now 20 baht even in farang dominated areas such as lower sukhumvit, was astonished the other day to see a vendor ask a tourist for 70 baht for a coconut with a straw in it, in fact what astonished me more was the tourist paid the price.

in the super markets the price of dairy products has risen, eg, milk, cheese, yoghurt, but how many thais do you know buy these products, they are more likely to eat jok in the morning.

i have also noticed a form of rationing in some of the larger super markets, if you dont read thai you wouldnt be aware, eg cooking oil limited to 3 bottles per customer, rice has just risen by i believe 3 baht per kilo, depending on the grade of rice.

yes the price of fuel has skyrocketed, i remember not so long ago 15 baht per litre, then 18,21 etc, now about 31 or 32 baht per litre, but again not unique to thailand.

the bus fares have risen from 8 baht to 8 baht 50 satang, the boat fares have gone up about 10%, due to the price of gasoline

cant say i am noticing rampant inflation, the wife takes care of shopping paying the bills etc, she has remarked a few times about the cost of certain items, but with a form of price war going on between various supermarkets she buys certain items at different supermarkets, but being prayat, she did this anyway.

i think the truth of the matter lies somewher in between, depending on what and where you buy yes there are prices increases, are they skyrocketing out of control, i dont think so.

the cost of electricity and water for the house hasnt risen, the wife hasnt mentioned anything about the cost of bottled gas going up, so cant comment.

as the wife tells me por gin por chai, or por piang, she certainly manages to get by, we still eat the same way and buy what we want, but then again we arent pensioners struggling to get by on a pension that is falling in value due to exchange rates, maybe your friend was thinking in us dollar terms, where the price in baht is the same but just costs more in dollars to buy.

apologises to the non thai readers, but i know the op speaks thai, thats why i have romanised certain thai phrases.

any other questions, fire away.

[cclub75]

A few comments.

-bottled gas : already gone up

-electricity : they talk about it for april

-pork : +35 % in february

-bus fares : it's important to note that many prices are still controled, and caped by the government

-same with diesel (new subsidy decided 2 weeks ago.... until july !)

My point : we have already a real inflation (check the chart)... It's likely that the government policies (postpone hikes and subsidize) will backfire... and create even more inflation.

wasabi,

i have been living here for the time period you mentioned.

i dont know where your friend was shopping or if she is referring just to bangkok.

as for prices skyrocketing and/or doubling.

[GuestHouse]

I asked this question, or rather specifically inflation for foreigners, a few weeks back with a poll thread Inflation Rate for Foreigners in Thailand

The results seem pretty clear - most respondents believe prices are rising at over 7% per year, many believe over 10%.

Just a note on 7% and 10%.

If prices are rising at 7% per year - prices will have doubled in 10 years.

If prices are rising at 10% per year - prices will have doubled in 7 years.

Doubled = Spending power of your income halved.

[soundman]

A few comments.

-bottled gas : already gone up

-electricity : they talk about it for april

-pork : +35 % in february

-bus fares : it's important to note that many prices are still controled, and caped by the government

-same with diesel (new subsidy decided 2 weeks ago.... until july !)

My point : we have already a real inflation (check the chart)... It's likely that the government policies (postpone hikes and subsidize) will backfire... and create even more inflation.

Well, after a quick lookie at that chart, inflation seemed to be at reasonable levels through the coup period, and the way it is headed under the current administration, Mars seems like a likely objective.

Layman's comparisson:

I went to the market to buy some fresh produce last Sunday. Total cost 1700B.

Roughly same purchase five years ago 500B.

Soundman.

[cclub75]

Well, after a quick lookie at that chart, inflation seemed to be at reasonable levels through the coup period, and the way it is headed under the current administration, Mars seems like a likely objective.

Watch out of the pervert % inflation year-on-year syndrome...

In february, we had +5,4 % compare to february 2007.

Now, if in mars we have 4,5 %, people are going to think "great inflation is coming down"...

But the prices DO NOT go down.

It's the base effect.

The Consumer Price Index was 115,3 in march 2007... It's impossible that the index in march 2008 can be lower than the previous month (120,7)... Therefore it's easy to forecast for this month a headline inflation of 4,68 % y-o-y. Minimum.

Because of the hike of gasoline prices (and agricultural prices too) in march... I would bet my shirt that the index will be higher than 120,7. I would say 121,6 (therefore + 5,4 % unchanged with february in term of %).

[sonicdragon]

I asked this question, or rather specifically inflation for foreigners, a few weeks back with a poll thread Inflation Rate for Foreigners in Thailand

The results seem pretty clear - most respondents believe prices are rising at over 7% per year, many believe over 10%.

Just a note on 7% and 10%.

If prices are rising at 7% per year - prices will have doubled in 10 years.

If prices are rising at 10% per year - prices will have doubled in 7 years.

Doubled = Spending power of your income halved.

......assuming no change in nominal incomes. That may be a fair assumption for some retirees or would-be retirees, and perhaps those earning salaries from countries that are actively encouraging inflation in order to stave off the potential for systemic collapse. But in many other countries, such is the bargaining power of labour that wage increases for some may keep ahead of inflation.

As for evidence of inflation in Thailand, having been away for a few months, my wife tells me that the prices of butter and pork are up a lot.

[GuestHouse]

But those inflation rates are based on Thai spending patterns - foreigners consume goods and services with a different spend pattern - and guess what?! .... in aint cheaper

[soundman]

But the prices DO NOT go down.

Don't discount, recession, depression or some (possible under current financial management) hairbrained scheme to remove a sizeable amount of cash from circulation!

[emmezeta]

But those inflation rates are based on Thai spending patterns - foreigners consume goods and services with a different spend pattern - and guess what?! .... in aint cheaper

Gee, every january restaurants and resorts goes up 10/15%.

In 5 years they will double...

[hanibal7]

The cost of living is going up based on certain product inflation and the strong thsai baht.2years ago i had money at 69.7 baht to the sterling and i lived off that for 18 months.3 years ago i had a years money at 74.9 baht so now if i had to change money it would be a bout 61.5 i think.when i retired early yo live in thailnd i allowed for 4% annum for inflation but didnt allow for a reduction of about 6-7 baht to the pound less.if i lived in the uk it would be far worse so;

MAI PEN RAI.

PS

dont buy butter or cheese,and only go out 2 nights a week, its so easy you know.LIVING IN HEAVEN IS SO MUCH BETTER.

[bingobongo]

oh well, i guess it is all relative...........

As dollar sinks, Thais struggle to keep economy afloat

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0325/p07s01-wosc.html

[wasabi]

Interesting responses. It seems everyone can agree there is some degree of significant inflation but how much and to which type of products there are some differences of opinions. That's probably due to preferences of dining and shopping venues and general business competition. My friend did mention the prices in USD even though she is Thai but she is going to school here in the USA so she may have been considering the currency effect for my understanding which unfortunately I do have to factor in. I'll prepare myself for some sticker shock but hopefully nothing that'll break the bank.

[sibeymai]

dairy products have gone up. Noticed Australian cheeses have risen 25% since January. How does that happen under a Free Trade Agreement ? I thought prices of imported product was supposed to go down with the FTA.

Edit: only reason I can think of is that the US$ is involved in the trade somehow....but wouldn't that make it even cheaper again ? maybe they're settling in Euros. Who knows.

Edited March 29, 2008 by sibeymai

[samran]

dairy products have gone up. Noticed Australian cheeses have risen 25% since January. How does that happen under a Free Trade Agreement ? I thought prices of imported product was supposed to go down with the FTA.

Edit: only reason I can think of is that the US$ is involved in the trade somehow....but wouldn't that make it even cheaper again ? maybe they're settling in Euros. Who knows.

Any benefits from the FTA in terms of price decreases would have been back in 2005 when they introduced the FTA when Thailand stopped slapping on any extra taxes on duties on a range of goods and services agreeded to under the FTA. It doesn't stop the realities of the market working.

and in Australia, there has been a drought for a number of years now, which is bound to push up the price of all agrigultural products. Add in the increase cost of freight (jet fuel), plus the increased cost electricity to keep said cheese cold while here in Thailand, then of course it is going to go up.....

That the prices went up in Jan was probably because retailers here were trying to hold off from passing on the price rises.

Interesting though that you mentioned January as a key date. There was a month or so where it was impossible to find any Lurpak butter anywhere in BKK (or at least the 4 places we shop - Carrefore, foodland, tops and Central Chitlom)....

[elektrified]

Indeed inflation is on the rise. My main reference is that of soundman, monitoring prices when grocery shopping. Prices have been steadily increasing even on products manufactured within Thailand. The USD should not have any effect on items manufactured/produced here. I have also noticed an increase in rates for hotels as well as the price of health and beauty products, household items, etc.

Edited March 30, 2008 by elektrified

[soundman]

Two weeks ago:

Prawns 110B per kilo at market - today 160B

Squid 100B - today 145B

Potatoes 55B - today 70B

Fish - unchanged.

Onions - unchanged

Assorted herbs - up about 20%

Bag of thai type beverage - up from 8 B to 10B

In fact nothing had gone down in price and many things have gone up substancially (as much as 30 - 40%) in the last three to five weeks.

Obviously, some things like potatos might be seasonal, however, the overall trend is worrying.

Soundman.

[chiangmaibruce]

Official figures here if anyone is interested:

www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/BankAtWork/Monetary&FXPolicies/Monet_Policy/report/index_eng_i.asp

- CB

[Seizhin]

Not to mention how the grain price are skyrocketting.

Oh~ It's over, it's over~

[cclub75]

Official figures here if anyone is interested:

www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/BankAtWork/Monetary&FXPolicies/Monet_Policy/report/index_eng_i.asp

This one is a better source :

http://www.price.moc.go.th/price%5Fe/

[misterman21]

Bar fines have risen by 50% over the past year or so from 200 to 300 baht.

[cclub75]

Not to mention how the grain price are skyrocketting.

An interesting view (on Nation)... Farmers complain : high prices of rice... do not cover... the inflation of production costs (fertilizer, diesel etc.).

"Despite satisfactory rice prices, farmers' living standards and way of life are still the same," said Suwan Kathavuth, an adviser to the Thai Farmers Association."

Check mate. This is inflation at work.

[torrenova]

Two weeks ago:

Prawns 110B per kilo at market - today 160B

Squid 100B - today 145B

Potatoes 55B - today 70B

Fish - unchanged.

Onions - unchanged

Assorted herbs - up about 20%

Bag of thai type beverage - up from 8 B to 10B

In fact nothing had gone down in price and many things have gone up substancially (as much as 30 - 40%) in the last three to five weeks.

Obviously, some things like potatos might be seasonal, however, the overall trend is worrying.

Soundman.

I concur that there is real inflation way above some supposed 7-10%. I was really shocked by some local dairy produce up about 50% in a couple of weeks, bread up 70% in a year. There does tend to be a wildly fluctuating price for things like broccoli which could be Bt45 or Bt75 but is up and down and back up again every other day and that is at Carrefour, not the market.

Meat has sky rocketed. Pork from Bt70 a kilo to Bt120/130. Chicken up about 50% as well.

I know it takes more cash to do the shopping and we spend more in the market as well. I'm not sying it hurts us but it must be hurting some on lesser incomes.

[LivinLOS]

Bar fines have risen by 50% over the past year or so from 200 to 300 baht.

So are you suggesting going short Long Times ??

[elektrified]

Two weeks ago:

Prawns 110B per kilo at market - today 160B

Squid 100B - today 145B

Potatoes 55B - today 70B

Fish - unchanged.

Onions - unchanged

Assorted herbs - up about 20%

Bag of thai type beverage - up from 8 B to 10B

In fact nothing had gone down in price and many things have gone up substancially (as much as 30 - 40%) in the last three to five weeks.

Obviously, some things like potatos might be seasonal, however, the overall trend is worrying.

Soundman.

Indeed the overall trend is very worrying. In terms of percentage, what soundman has illustrated above is outrageous in a two week period. I too have found that many items in the grocery store, drug store, etc. are up 30-40% over the last six weeks. Those on low or fixed incomes must really be feeling the pain because it takes a lot more cash to do the shopping.

[Heng]

A Thai friend of mine is home visiting her family in Bangkok right now. She just reported since she was last there, which was 2 years ago, many prices have doubled. For example a meal from a street vendor that used to cost 50 might now cost 100 Baht. A bottle of water that was 10 Baht is now 20. She says gasoline has gotten much more expensive as well so cab fares are higher and many other things that are effected by transportation costs perhaps this even effects food? Are those living in Thailand noticing dramatic price increases? I have another friend who lives in Udon and she mentioned prices have not gone up that much. So from what I'm being told prices are skyrocketing in the major cities.

Slow steady rise, as is the nature of things. Still, a bottle of water at 7-11 is 7 to 10 Baht depending on brand. Plenty of street vendors are still serving 25-50 Baht meals (although some are decreasing proportions or meat/fish and simply adding more rice or noodles).

[PeaceBlondie]

What is the price of bahtworst? Oh, I mean bratwurst.

[soundman]

Slow steady rise, as is the nature of things. Still, a bottle of water at 7-11 is 7 to 10 Baht depending on brand. Plenty of street vendors are still serving 25-50 Baht meals (although some are decreasing proportions or meat/fish and simply adding more rice or noodles).

Mama noodles are up 1B per pack at 7/11. A 20% increase.