German Infected 450 Thai Woman With Aids

[ngeean]

Just to answer your 1/100 infection question.

I worked for 7 years in Thailand with the US Govt on HIV/AIDS projects.

Although the statistic you mentioned is true (actually think it is 1/1000) with respect to odds of infection it should be noted that this is the average probablility.

In fact, infectivity is dependent upon a number of factors. For example, if one has been recently infected (within 90 days) or is symptomatic (AIDS) then these individuals will have an exceptionally high number of viral particles in their circulating blood and will be EXTREMLY contagious.

On the other hand if they are in the HIV positive "quiet", i.e. asymptomatic, phase of disease the circulating virus is lower; therefore they are less infective.

Other factors that increase transmission are blood involvement, vitamin deficiecy and general robustness of the host's immune system.

In conclusion, you can contract HIV from a single exposure quite easily from a person that has a high viral load. I don't think it is worth taking the chance and I will bet that the German in question is probably not healthy due to his age and having been infected for a number of years.

[Trevor]

Herr Schiemann will end up paying his Baht 20,000 fine and then get deported. Quick change-of-name back home, new passport, then back to his old tricks in another but equally-poor small town, possibly in the Philippines.

15 is the age of consent in Thailand and there are no AIDS-spreading laws as in the West. Guess he'll be careful not to pick up any cops' daughters next time round!

[ngeean]

This message goes to Daveh regarding his statistics for HIV tests.

Again, I have worked with HIV/AIDS projects in Thailand for nearly a decade.

The average prevalence rate of 1.8%; however, one must take into account that this is the general population. Prostitues have a much higher rate of infection which is between 15% and 30% depending on a number of factors. In the late 90's a brothel which served truck drivers in Chiang Mai province was found my Thai MOPH to have 100% of the girls HIV + !!

With respect to the assays and the comment that they will throw False positive and False negative numbers around 24% this is simply UNTRUE. The tests EIA/ELISA test use for screening currently have a sensitivity/specificity at or near 100%. It should be noted that if anyone is found to be REACTIVE by the EIA/ELISA this sample will be confirmed or refuted by additional testing (wester blot and sometimes RNA/DNA PCR).

So false negatives are what should be of concern. But again with the sensitivity/specificy of these assays it is an uncommon occurance.

[stroll]

There is no 'quick change-of-name back home' in Germany.

Since the guy made commercial transactions, i.e. money for sex, the applicable age of consent is 18, which clearly places our friend on the wrong side of the law. If Thai authorities decide not to push the charges, I am sure German special investigators are collecting evidence right now, in order to be able to 'welcome' him back home after deportation.

Of course no society can tolerate the behaviour of guys like this, and unfortunately the law in most countries does not recognise the severity of such crimes (deliberately spreading aids) enough.

But I am appalled once more at the constant stream of posts describing the most barbaric forms of punishment for somebody whose misdeeds they only know from a News Clipping. No wonder you are concerned about a wave of violence against Farangs in Thailand, if folks with generalising, non-distinguishing attitudes as often witnessed in this forum come together, a lynch mob will be the result!

[noBuzz]

Let's just hope his relatives or the german govmnt takes pity and pays for medication for these poor girls. Atleast to save a little face.

Although it's probably never going to happen it would be a nice gesture by the german govt or thai-german community.

There just aren't words for this kind of behaviour. He's not human.

He's not even neanderthal.

It's not even disgusting.. there just aren't words.

Please do not put this guy in front of me.

[RDN]

What a despicable crime. Spare a thought also for the families of the girls. My g/f's family (coincidentally live near Chaiyaphum) have been sick with worry for weeks - my g/f's brother 'disappeared' for many months and then the mother got an 'HIV positive' letter from a hospital. They went to look for him in bkk, and found him. It turns out he lent his ID card to a mate who wanted the test. My g/f's mother made him take the test anyway - negative. Unbelievably worrying time for everyone, but now it's over. But these poor girls..., words fail me. Very sad. As for the German, he could be the biggest serial killer of all time. May he burn in hell.

[Richard W]

Hans-Otto Schiemann, 56, who has lived in Thailand for nine years, said he went on a sexual rampage after testing positive to HIV/AIDS in 2001.

He would cruise in his car, looking for groups of young people after school and offering them the equivalent of their parents' monthly wages to have unprotected sex. They generally agreed.

His core prey consisted of young girls, 15 and older. "They sell their children here," he said. "The only reason I'm in jail is because I had sex with a policeman's daughter."

It sounds as though he was taking revenge for being infected.

[penelope]

what ever happened to good old public beatings ??

I reckon you'd get a great turnout for a public beating of a German man in Washington square. I'll be in the Singha tent waiting with rock in hand.

[Boon Mee]

What a sick <deleted>!

I'd say chop off his "kwaay" and feed it to some wildfowl but they might get sick...

[stroll]

what ever happened to good old public beatings ??

I reckon you'd get a great turnout for a public beating of a German man in Washington square. I'll be in the Singha tent waiting with rock in hand.

Will you need to examine any evidence before downing your Chang and throwing the stone? Will any German do, or do you get more fun out of some than others?

[danesei]

"In response to the appeal, 66 girls had tested positive out of a town of 30,000 people."

In Thailand, the HIV rate is around 1.5%, so in a town of 30,000 you should expet 450 people who are positive. They really need to do more work to determine if this guy was the cause (forcibly test the bastard!). I think this is a case where the rights of the many outweigh the rights of an individual.

I hope the girls who tested positive get some counseling. Even if they tested positive, there is a good change they are NOT positive. The HIV antibodies test is not the most accurate test. If it is 99.5% accurate, in a population of 29,550 people who are negative, 147 will test false positive. And 448 of those who are positive will test positive with two testing as false negatives. So the total number of people testing positive is 595. So the chance of being NEGATIVE given that they tested positive is 147/595 = 24.7%, which is not insignificant. These girls need to get tested again.

Okay, a couple things...

First of, if the incident rate of HIV in Thailand is 1.5 percent, and 66 teenage girls who this man had sex with test positive, there is already a simple correlation. When applying the generalization to the specific sampling (a logical, no no, but acceptable in statistical practice), we get 4400 girls that he's slept with (if he wasn't the base cause of infection). Are there 4400 teenaged (15 or 16 yr old) girls in this town of 30000?

You're misreading what was stated. I read it as "in response to 66 teenagers that the guy slept with testing positive, the town govt issued an appeal to everyone to be tested."

I really don't think it's a case of the many over the few. The guy admitted to paying these girls for sex, knowing that he had AIDS. Since he wasn't arrested for that particular crime (having sex knowing that you have AIDS), then he probably got questioned about solication of sex from a minor for a fee. (Child prostitution.)

Also, the other concern was that he could just go to Laos or Cambodia. Is the age of consent 16 like it is in those other countries?

Lastly, the main thing I wanted to comment on... your statistical presentation.

The 99.5 percent accuracy only affects those who test once for the virus. If I tested positive for HIV, I'd ask them to run the test again. That would increase the accuracy rate to 99.9975 percent. If tested a third time, that increases to 99.9999875 percent.

Now the question that begs itself: What is the likelihood of testing once, then retesting with the opposite result? Well, apparently, that would be .4975 percent. Given a third test, the odds of the third result being false is .024875 percent.

Umm... my point? I don't really have one, but the argument that AIDS testing isn't accurate isn't a very good one. Is the test faulty like how birth control is faulty? My friend got pregnant twice while on birth control. I concluded that the likelihood of that is so minimal that her body must be somehow rejecting whatever chemicals are in the birth control. That would throw the statistics out the window.

So, if we force this man to be retested, and he tests negative, what do you do? Retest him, of course. And just accept the results of the third test. If he tests positive on the retest, accept that he has HIV.

BTW, if he has tested positive for AIDS, that means he already had HIV...

[soki]

no need for the police to hold him on any charges .......if somebody could supply me with a gun and one bullet i,ll gladly put this animal to sleep.

what a tosser !!

maybe he,ll suffer a long painful death if he,s lucky ??

[Sheri]

Folks, let's get real here! Put on your thinking caps for a moment and take a look at what is being said.

The article says,

"A German national IS BELIEVED to have deliberately infected more than 450 young women with the HIV/AIDS virus..." (my caps)

This is a common trick of journalists, to alude to what is "believed" by an unknown source, giving it the appearance such a belief is based on factual and empirical data. Note the article makes no reference to who believes this, thus it could be a drunk who believed it or some NGO who already has made up their mind all farangs spread AIDS to all Thai girls. Now, if the article said, "Dr. M, along with a medical team of AIDS experts from around the world, after 6 months of careful medical and scientific study, concluded there might be a connection between 450 girls who were found HIV positive and a German national", the article would begin to take on some credibility. It says nothing of the sort. All it says is that someone, whoever that is, believed the guy may have infected 450 girls with HIV.

Now, let me ask you this. Is the fact that something is believed, any type of proof that it's factual? If so, we would have the following "facts":

"A loyal Christian is BELIEVED to go to heaven when he dies..."

"A faithful Muslim is BELIEVED to be rewarded with 7 virgins when he dies..."

"The Hindu god Krishan is BELIEVED to have had 16,000 wives..."

"A woman is BELIEVED to have been abducted by aliens from another planet..."

"A man is BELIEVED to have gotten pregant..."

"A ghost is BELIEVED to have visited a Thai bar girl at her room last night..."

...and...

"A German national is BELIEVED to have infected 450 girls..."

If you believe the last statement, you might as well believe all the former, because there's no more scientific or empirical data to support either. Guess it all comes down to how naive and gullible a reader you really are. And I BELIEVE that what I just wrote happens to be the truth! Swallow that pill and see what happens!

[RDN]

Did you not read this bit? (It's about two sentences further on):

"Hans-Otto Schiemann, 56, who has lived in Thailand for nine years, said he went on a sexual rampage after testing positive to HIV/AIDS in 2001."

Did he say it or did he not say it?

[brubo1]

everybody here is talking or questioning the numbers!? Even if this guy "only" infected 10 girls it is totally and utterly dspicable!

[RatsoRizo]

inappropriate post deleted

Edited October 13, 2004 by huski

[daveh]

First of, if the incident rate of HIV in Thailand is 1.5 percent, and 66 teenage girls who this man had sex with test positive, there is already a simple correlation. When applying the generalization to the specific sampling (a logical, no no, but acceptable in statistical practice), we get 4400 girls that he's slept with (if he wasn't the base cause of infection). Are there 4400 teenaged (15 or 16 yr old) girls in this town of 30000?

That would be about 15% of the population. Which does sound a little high, but not excessivly so. Especially when you consider that the HIV rate among the entire population is different than that of 15-21 year olds. I think it could be higher among teens because of the sexual revolution Thai teens seem to be going through these days.

I really don't think it's a case of the many over the few. The guy admitted to paying these girls for sex, knowing that he had AIDS. Since he wasn't arrested for that particular crime (having sex knowing that you have AIDS), then he probably got questioned about solication of sex from a minor for a fee. (Child prostitution.)

I don't think he ever admitted to having AIDS or testing positive for HIV. Also, I haven't read anywhere that it was confirmed that he has AIDS. It was his (ex-)wife making that statement because she has AIDS.

Also, the other concern was that he could just go to Laos or Cambodia. Is the age of consent 16 like it is in those other countries?

Of course this is a big concern. But he shouldn't be tried in the media, which it appears he is now.

Lastly, the main thing I wanted to comment on... your statistical presentation.

The 99.5 percent accuracy only affects those who test once for the virus. If I tested positive for HIV, I'd ask them to run the test again. That would increase the accuracy rate to 99.9975 percent. If tested a third time, that increases to 99.9999875 percent.

Now the question that begs itself: What is the likelihood of testing once, then retesting with the opposite result? Well, apparently, that would be .4975 percent. Given a third test, the odds of the third result being false is .024875 percent.

Which is exactly my argument that the girls who tested positive should get retested. And if the infection count goes from 66 to 50, you will never hear about it in the news. Another poster claimed that they will use more accurate tests if the normal test shows reactive. I'm not sure how Thai hospitals act on positive, but if this is the case then I don't see the numbers decreasing. Basically, getting tested once is like getting tested three times, increasing its accuracy.

Umm... my point? I don't really have one, but the argument that AIDS testing isn't accurate isn't a very good one. Is the test faulty like how birth control is faulty? My friend got pregnant twice while on birth control. I concluded that the likelihood of that is so minimal that her body must be somehow rejecting whatever chemicals are in the birth control. That would throw the statistics out the window.

Um... you already made my point about having to get tested more than once if you test positive, so I'm not sure what you are talking about here.

So, if we force this man to be retested, and he tests negative, what do you do? Retest him, of course. And just accept the results of the third test. If he tests positive on the retest, accept that he has HIV.

Maybe I missed it. But I didn't read anywhere that they actually tested him.

BTW, if he has tested positive for AIDS, that means he already had HIV...

Hmmm... there is no test for AIDS, there is only a test for HIV. AIDS is a combination of syptoms that result from having HIV. Being diagnosed with AIDS is something a doctor must do, there is no "test".

Again, my entire point to my first post was that if these girls were only tested once, they should get tested again (and again). And if they test negative the next time around, they should not consider it a miracle.

[medicinebox]

Ok the big question is if it is true?

But just to put another angle on it, did anyone ever remember Stickman mentioning a conversation with a Thai hooker who said "If I ever got AIDS I would go with as many falang as I could and try to give them it, I would even drop the price to make sure they would go with me" words to that effect. He also pointed out that he knows several HIV+ girls who are still working the game.

Can't remember which archive it was in, but anyone remember reading it?

Selling sex is selling sex. An occupational hazzard. So he's a cockroach, but so are a large number of sex workers.

Either rubber up, or stay out of it all together.

[Artisan]

A one-legged naval veteran.....

"Long Dong Silver" no doubt!!!

[MekhongKurt]

Seems to me there's the possibility of truth on both sides -- i.e., maybe he really did infect some girls (and if so, deserves harsh justice), and maybe he is being tried by the media. Regarding the former point, it doesn't really matter whether he deliberately infected one or hundreds of unsuspecting, young girls, a point made by a prosecutor at the Nuremberg trials when some Nazi bastard tried to defend himself regarding The Holocaust by saying he never dreamed it would claim as many people as it did. Further, some have argued the girls were selling their bodies, so too bad for them, but IMHO, that's way too damning of gals whom, I'm willing to assume until proven wrong, figured they could make a quick baht easily. Regarding the latter point, it *would* be nice were the local media to cover the sickeningly high rates of infections well off the beaten farang track. A friend of mine worked six years at the joint U.S.-Thai aids research facility here in Bangkok. He told me about some research they did in a very small town in Isaan which, as far as anyone could determine, had not had any non-Thai visitors for years. Of the two dozen or so prostitutes working in the town, 100% of them tested postive for HIV. I never saw a peep anywhere about that. Not only would it be "nice" to see coverage of that kind of story, but it also would make reports such as this one more creditable.

Cheers,

Mekhong Kurt

[ronz28]

What a scumbag, He ought to be executed immediately. Letting him suffer in jail is too good for him. Get rid of him.

[sriracha john]

if somebody could supply me with a gun and one bullet i,ll gladly put this animal to sleep.

see if Heng can hook you up....

[sriracha john]

Before we kill this guy i just want to know one thing everyone is taking a Thai report as 100% truthful. Give me a ###### break ,even if he was HIv+ THERE IS NO WAY HE COULD HAVE EVER GIVEN 450 GIRLS THIS INFECTIOn He would have had to ###### each of them 1000 times to get a number like is reported.

I bet most of you bitching the loudest have not ######ed anyne but you wife for a long time,so you feleall guys who bang the poor little ho's hey wake the ###### up there as stupid as he was,and this story wil play out to be total bullshit. but don't worr about me when i come and ###### the girls in your village i will practice sake sex and only come in the virgin mouths.

Please stop you

Wow!.... What a literary genius. We eagerly await your SECOND post at thaivisa.com

[penelope]

what ever happened to good old public beatings ??

I reckon you'd get a great turnout for a public beating of a German man in Washington square. I'll be in the Singha tent waiting with rock in hand.

Will you need to examine any evidence before downing your Chang and throwing the stone? Will any German do, or do you get more fun out of some than others?

They serve Chang in the Singha tent...I'm there for sure !!

[axl]

I appreciate that there are some people in this forum who inform on HIV and AIDS in a professional way. Education alone though will not prevent HIV infections...as long as death wishes are as easy formulated as in various posted tirades.

secon this:

But I am appalled once more at the constant stream of posts describing the most barbaric forms of punishment for somebody whose misdeeds they only know from a News Clipping.  No wonder you are concerned about a wave of violence against Farangs in Thailand, if folks with generalising, non-distinguishing attitudes as often witnessed in this forum come together, a lynch mob will be the result!

[capt_canada42]

He probably was doing this as revenge, I heard about a girl here in Phuket who has had aids for years who has been having unprotected sex for years to get even with all men in general. She is quite a good looker and she is getting even with men for infecting her. She stayed on the game also because she needs money.

So be careful guys there are many people in the world who believe in getting even

[Martin_F]

AIDS man went on Thai sex spree

CHAIYAPHUM: -- A German national is believed to have deliberately infected more than 450 young women with the HIV/AIDS virus in Thailand's northern Chaiyaphum province.

I do not condone the actions of the person in question and if the actions are proven to be true and he has broken the law then he should be prosecuted in accordance with the law.

But:

We have not yet heard the persons side of the story. Is it true? Is it just the local headman trying to get rid of the German? Who knows? There is a comment that he did it to the policeman’s daughter.

But more disturbing is why did some families accept payments to allowing their daughters to be humped? That is totally unacceptable - and the parents should also be bought into line - but will they.

[Buddhaboy]

What happened in this guy's life to make him do something so sick? He must have been the victim at some stage.

Through a complete lack of self understanding people are capable of such terrible acts

[Whitey]

it serves the girls right for having sex, protected or unprotected for money. Let's not get away from the lesson, if the girls weren't willing then no infection would occur.

[rod_kalashnikov]