China's Emergence As A World Economic Superpower

[Jessy]

The Italian-Thai Development Public Company had a high level economic and business debate in Bangkok recently. It was about future economic trade and business investment in Thailand. There are strong implications for English language demand in all Asian countries, except China.

Up until now now most investment in Thailand has primarily come from the West: America and Europe, and of course, Japan. The conclusion of the debate was: the assumption that future trade and investment will come from the west no longer holds. Future investment is going to come less and less from the West; it is going to come more and more from China. In the next decade or so China is going to develop into the next great world super power. (Indeed, America and the rest of the world is only just waking up to that fact.) Not only is China going to become a dominant world economic force, it will dominate Asian markets. The implication for China's satellite asian coutries, like Thailand, is that they are going to be swallowed up under the huge economic umbrella of China. And, Manadarin is going to become the second language of choice for these satellite countries, not English.

In fact, there was an article about this very subject in the Bangkok Post last week. Did you see it? (You may be able to read it on the internet). Burapha University has now started running a Mandarin and Chinese studies course. The Head of Studies there said that already more and more Thai students are choosing to study Mandarin Chinese over English as a second language. The emergence of Chinese language schools and Chinese language teachers is going to be become a future trend in countries like Thailand.

The consequences for English language teachers and English language schools is that in Thailand there will only be a limited demand, so they will start to disappear. The only positive and possible comforting thought for English language teachers is that they will be hugely in demand in China, as it will be the chosen second language there. But who wants to move to China when, for example, the weather is so cold and wet, and when one is already settled here? What are your thoughts on this?

[Theyreallrubbish]

The rise of China is a real event, but don't overegg the pudding. Even if China continues to grow at 9% and the US at only 2% the Chinese economy doesn't reach the size of the US economy for another 25 years.

The chances of China maintaining growth rates that high as it approaches western levels of wealth are minute. For all kinds of reasons such as the law of diminishing returns, the plucking of the low hanging fruit and the coming demographic crisis due to the one child policy. Not to mention the likelihood of political problems in China at some time in the future.

Even if that happens and China somehow does manage to exceed the US economy in size, Europe is a larger economy than the US so it will be a tripolar world with the Europe and the US being closer than China to either of them, so it won't be a world economically dominated by China.

Also, Latin remained the lingua franca for international trade, diplomacy, science and philosophy for over 1000 years after the fall of the Roman empire. English will remain the international language of business and trade for the forseeable future.

[Ijustwannateach]

While there may be some interest in Chinese because of economic factors, it is such an unwieldy and user-unfriendly language given the extensive learning curve of its writing system that I doubt it will catch on widely as an international language. Some regional players will most likely use it to get some advantages and synergies, but it seems most likely to me that the Chinese will have to learn English to manage their growing global empires, and those countries whose native language is not English will have to learn it to speak with them.

"S"

[PeaceBlondie]

I echo the last two posters.

Only five years, ago, China's total GDP was about 6 trillion, or $5,000 per capita. The USA, 11 trillion total GDP, $37,800 per capita. Only in Japan might it seem the sun already rises in the west. The language is impossible; many Chinese don't speak Mandarin. At least 14% are illiterate; most are poor farmers, laborers, or slaves. The economy is COMMUNIST, central, and far from perfect.

What effect will this have on TEFL in Thailand? No good effect, just one more nail in the coffin of Thai TEFL. I think the only TEFLers that will survive here in the year 2565, if man is still alive, will be farang and non-Thai Asians with a B.Ed. or PGCE.

[Scott]

I think that the tide is still pretty strong for English. It may shift somewhat, but by and large so much of scientific research and medical advances as well as technological advances are written in English journals. I tend to think it is a little like Latin, which did survive as a learned and used language, very long after demise as a spoken language.

China has a huge number of problems. It's level of pollution leaves a lot of areas from agriculture and fisheries to heavy industry unsustainable. To become a dominant force over a long period of time -- enough to make their language the language to know, they will have to quickly address these problems. I don't see this happening.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

The heart of China's economy is still Hong Kong, where business is conducted primarily in English. Of note, however, is that China is recruiting native Indian English teachers for their schools. They claim that the asian-born teachers are better suited to teach English in China.

[Jessy]

The global power shift from the West to the East is no longer just a matter of debate confined to journals and newspaper columns - it is a reality that is going to have a huge impact on our daily lives in the future. It will affect choice of language learning, especially in Asia, though it may not be for a few more years yet.

To put into perspective what China has achieved in just two decades: it has transformed from one of the poorest countries of the 20th century into the globe's third-largest economy, and it is only the beginning. According to Goldman Sachs, the bank, they reckon that by 2050, China and India would have overtaken the U.S. to be the world's first and second biggest economies.

Some of you mention ‘growth’ and GDP. This only accounts for the size of the cake; what is going to be more important is the ‘slice’ of the cake and who will have the biggest slice. That will be dictated by two factors: access to cheap labor AND access to oil.

Up until the last decade the West has had the advantage in being ‘capital intensive’ whereas Asian countries have been ‘labour intensive’. But as Asian countries have been gaining, buying and developing technology of their own on a massive scale, the West’s advantage is rapidly diminishing in the production of goods. Access to cheap labour, both skilled and unskilled, is now the essential ingredient. China and India has it in abundance: specifically a very low-cost labor force capable of relatively high quality production at a fraction of the price required for the same labour in the US, Europe or Japan. China runs a trade surplus largely because it can produce the same things as the rest of the world but much more efficiently. This is already a major problem for the West, and it is only just the beginning.

Access to energy is going to be the other major factor in who gets the biggest slice of the cake. China and America are both huge importers of oil though they have some of their own. China is spending 35 times as much on crude oil as it did eight years ago. Goodness knows what will happen here?

Even if we talk about GDP and growth rates, we should be cautious. What we are measuring (and for whom those growth rates are interpreted) is not perceived the same in the West as it is in the East. It is the millionaire and three tramps scenario. When we talk about GDP and growth in the west, we use it as an indicator of development, so in the West we ask questions like: What is happening to education? What is happening to inequality? What is happening to poverty? What is happening to standard of living? How is the wealth distributed etc? This doesn’t happen in China (or other Asian countries like Thailand for that matter) because the mentality towards those things is different. A cheap labour force is needed and therefore maintained, so the effects on poverty, inequality, exploitation and the environment don’t have the same significance. Chinese “efficiency” is at least partly explained by its refusal to count costs correctly – environmental costs, social costs, and labor exploitation is permitted and even encouraged by political constraints on the ability of workers to organise and protect their interests – the same as in Thailand. Of course, all this puts the west at an unfair disadvantage, but only in the Wests eyes.

It is a strange thought to think that if only one quarter of the Chinese population develops and becomes wealthy leaving the rest rural and relatively poor (as in Thailand), well that is still the same number of people as the entire population of America.

Up until now many people have only become aware of China’s domestic home development, but what is less known is its expansion overseas. This is due to its abundance of money accumulated as a result of the continuous trade surplus with the rest of the world. For example, as was written in the Independent newspaper in the UK, “This year (2008), China's state-controlled banks have begun spending some of its $1.33trn (£670bn) in foreign currency reserves on London and American financial markets. Chinese banks have been acquiring stakes in such blue chip stocks such as Barclays in UK and the US private equity firms like Blackstone. American finance houses have said that the label ‘Made in China’ will soon be replaced by one reading ‘Owned by China’”.

Just for the record, some of you may be intersted to know that a couple of years ago, Nanjing Automotive, a Chinese company, snapped up MG Rover. And recently, an Indian company, Tata, bought up what was the cream of British manufacturing - Jaguar and Land Rover.

Europeans and Americans have, for half a century, been unchallenged as the global colonisers, but last month the Economist dubbed the Chinese "The New Colonists". The West has long seen Africa as its backyard, but Western diplomats now worry that not just Africa, but South America, too, is being lost to China. Canadian authorities were recently alarmed to find the Chinese exploring the Arctic Ocean, in a bid to get a share of the minerals beneath the thawing icecap. In eastern Siberia, Russians say that China is by default taking over their empty land.

I hope you guys are right, because then our positions in Thailand will be secure for a bit longer. But a decade or two is huge amount of time in terms of world economics. It just seems to me that has world economics shifts, eventually Chinese will become the second language of choice that Thais want to learn. It will be in demand, it will become fashionable – regardless of how easy it is to learn compared to English. (Maybe not in European countries and China itself, but certainly in other smaller Asian countries). We will wait and see.

[Ijustwannateach]

Most younger students of foreign languages are thinking about education, not careers. Strangely, none of my students who wishes to study abroad talks about studying in China (even Hong Kong). Mostly America, Canada, Britain, Australia. Singapore does come up, but they use English, too.

I can imagine a big increase in ADULT students of Chinese, and a modest increase in younger students (though many of the ones I teach are actually studying Japanese). Thanks, but I don't feel particularly worried.

[Loaded]

Sure Chinese is becoming more important if you don't deal with an international Chinese company. International Chinese companies use English. I remember when I arrived in Thailand 10 years ago, the same arguments were made about Japanese.

[PeaceBlondie]

I get a general impression that most Thais of all ages do not like to learn foreign languages, think too mutt, or pass difficult, properly supervised, relevant exams. Let's face it: most Thais don't want to learn Mandarin, Japanese, or English. Not seriously, usually.

[mbkudu]

There has to be a motivating factor strong enough to urge them on; usually more money at a job. There are Thai tour guides in Pataya who can speak Russian. I could not think of any other good reason to learn Russian.

[PeaceBlondie]

Thanks for that more positive spin, mbkudu. There are junior lecturers trying to get overseas doctorates, who take IELTS or similar English proficiency tests. Tour guides, travel agents, export-import, visa run agencies, etc., learning Japanese, Spanish, Korean, Urdu, etc.

[mbkudu]

Exactly. If you were a Ukrainian mail order bride getting ready to marry a Greek business tycoon, Greek would be the order of the day. It's all about money.

[mrtoad]

The sky is falling.

[Ijustwannateach]

[Jessy]

Thanks for all your opinions and thoughts - those that replied to the post. A few things to think about - what you all said too. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

[Rionoir]

There is NO WAY mandarin will become more popular as a second language, if for no other reason than because the writing system is far too difficult to learn as a second language. Ask any Chinese student how long it takes them to learn the characters... and that is when it is their primary language.

[LaoPo]

There is NO WAY mandarin will become more popular as a second language, if for no other reason than because the writing system is far too difficult to learn as a second language. Ask any Chinese student how long it takes them to learn the characters... and that is when it is their primary language.

1. I agree that Mandarin will not surpass English as second language. However it is a big advantage for westerners/foreigners if they can speak Mandarin.

2. I just asked (again) my wife....it is NOT difficult for Chinese children to learn and write the characters; in 2 years they write the characters. They start at 6/7 and complete more or less at 9 to 10. It's difficult in OUR perspective, not theirs.

LaoPo

[Rionoir]

2. I just asked (again) my wife....it is NOT difficult for Chinese children to learn and write the characters; in 2 years they write the characters. They start at 6/7 and complete more or less at 9 to 10. It's difficult in OUR perspective, not theirs.

I take it your wife is Chinese? The people I have asked were high school aged and said that by the time they are in HIGH SCHOOL they haven't even learned ALL the characters.

Let's face it though... at age 6-10 you don't even know all the words, how could you have all the characters memorized? The way I understand it, learning characters is 100% memorization, even if you bother to learn the little story behind each character... I just don't see it being feasible for most foreigners.

I agree though, learning to at least SPEAK mandarin could be a useful skill... but at some point, business will require written communication.

[LaoPo]

2. I just asked (again) my wife....it is NOT difficult for Chinese children to learn and write the characters; in 2 years they write the characters. They start at 6/7 and complete more or less at 9 to 10. It's difficult in OUR perspective, not theirs.

I take it your wife is Chinese? The people I have asked were high school aged and said that by the time they are in HIGH SCHOOL they haven't even learned ALL the characters.

Let's face it though... at age 6-10 you don't even know all the words, how could you have all the characters memorized? The way I understand it, learning characters is 100% memorization, even if you bother to learn the little story behind each character... I just don't see it being feasible for most foreigners.

I agree though, learning to at least SPEAK mandarin could be a useful skill... but at some point, business will require written communication.

Yes, my wife is Chinese.

Of course a child or high school student is not able to learn or know ALL characters. The latest Chinese dictionary from 1994 contains some 85,000 characters...a 100 years ago there were 'just' 47/48,000.

But a child is able to learn, write and know the basics in characters and of course during further education the knowledge improves and improves.

To read a Chinese newspaper properly it is said that a basic knowledge of some 3.000 characters and/or variations is needed and the higher the education the higher number of characters could be 'controlled'.

For westerners very difficult to achieve although there are quite a few who learned to speak and write...but not me, unfortunately

I met a brilliant young guy last year, 21 years old, from my own country who studied 1 year in China and spoke almost fluent Mandarin with my wife. He's quite a commercial chap and I think he has a bright future. Apart from that he also studied 3 more languages which is not uncommon in my country though.

LaoPo

[amaran]

Don't forget that most Thai students in Thai governemnt schools cannot read or write English. When they are taught they are taught English using Native English text books. The problem is that even the most basic of these books assumes they already have an understanding of the Roman alphabet. But the Roman alphabet is totally alien to Thais who have learnt there own alphabet (a writing and reading system that is totally alien to us). The text books and systems used to teach reading and writing English were produced for people who use the Roman alphabet, in Europe and America. So learning the Chinese system will obviously be difficult to westerners, but so is the Thai system. It may not be so difficult for Thais to learn as you think. To them, when they first start learning, the Chinese alphabet is just as alien as the Roman alphabet. Hope this makes sense.

[PeaceBlondie]

Don't forget that most Thai students in Thai governemnt schools cannot read or write English. When they are taught they are taught English using Native English text books. The problem is that even the most basic of these books assumes they already have an understanding of the Roman alphabet. But the Roman alphabet is totally alien to Thais who have learnt there own alphabet (a writing and reading system that is totally alien to us). The text books and systems used to teach reading and writing English were produced for people who use the Roman alphabet, in Europe and America. So learning the Chinese system will obviously be difficult to westerners, but so is the Thai system. It may not be so difficult for Thais to learn as you think. To them, when they first start learning, the Chinese alphabet is just as alien as the Roman alphabet. Hope this makes sense.

Nice opinion, but having taught Thais in English, I disagree about their ignorance of the Roman alphabet. They all know the A-B-C song, although they think the final letter is Zed. They see Roman characters all over Thailand, on TV, etc. They never see Chinese characters, except in Chinatown, and have no need to decipher them. They know the names of Thai bands and pop stars, in Roman characters.

EFL textbooks are written for foreigners whose native alphabet may be Cyrillic, Arabic, Burmese, or Thai. Only ESL textbooks are written for immigrants to English-speaking countries.

[amaran]

That's not true.

You talk about children singing the A,B,C song. That's because it's memorised. The 'name' of the letter in the Roman alphabet has no relation with it's 'sound'. That's why learning the alphabet is useless when it comes to reading and writing. Children may learn that letter C has the name 'see' and A's name is 'aye' and T's name is 'tee", but if you write the word CAT on the board they won't know what it is (with early learners and beginner classes). They can't read, form or pronounce the word CAT (unless they have previously memorised that single word). Children only know letters and words they have memorised. This system of reading and writing (by memorising words) is limiting, which is why now in the UK, for example, they have introduced phonics as a serious part of the national curriculem. Phonics is concerned with the relation between the letter and sound - NOT the letter and name. The target is to learn 250 words a year (Pratom one to three) and 350 Pratum 4 to 6) - in Europe the primary equivalent. Impossible to achieve with that method alone. Learning to read and write through word memorisation alone takes much longer, which is why phonics is such an important player in Education in Europe and America now, as it speeds up te process. Beginners, in recogising letters and sounds can create the words on their own. Phonics books like Jolly phonics are brilliant in Europe, and are poopular for learing sounds, but they are not so suitable here. In one beginners class here in Thailand I wrote the word DOG on the board and all the students knew it. I then wrote the word MAT and they had no idea what is said. With good phonics tuition they would have created the word sound themselves in pronunciation.

I have experience of working in governemnt schools and ninety percent ofthe children cannot read or write. This is a massive problem highlighted by the Thai government who want to try an improve on the 90% failure rate when they sit the ONET and National Tests. One of the problems is that they are given basic text books in schools, which are suitable for early primary and beginner learners in Europe and America, but in Thailand with the Roman alphabet it is meaningless. I was at an English camp near the Laos border recently that had been organised to be run over three days. All the students were given a 'get to know each other' work sheet'. The first question was, 'Find someone who likes ice cream'. It was completely meaningless to them. It had to be explained in Thai what it said. And the instruction had to be written in Thai. The perosn who organised the camp, made te mistake of assuming they already understood the Roman alphabet.

Have you ever tried to learn Thai without the use of a dictionary or text book that doesn't use the Roman alphabet for English translations? Imagine using a Thai dictionary that only used the Thai alphabet for trasnslations - even with basic words and phrases it would be very slow to learn and more-or-less meaningless to a very beginner. That's basically what many English teachers do here with early learners and beginners by using text books with the Roman Alphabet.

Of course, once someone has reached a certain basic level where they do understand the Roman alphabet, there isn't a problem.

I have attempted to learn Mandarin. I found the alphabet more difficult than the Thai alphabet I admit. The sysmbols are a real pain. But in other respects it is easier. The tonal system is easier. Thais would pick up the tone system easily. Once they had learnt the symbols they may even find it easier than English once the phonics had been learnt (symbols that translate into sound).

[PeaceBlondie]

Mandarin. And, Cantonese. How many 'letters' in their 'alphabet'? Thousands! The Thai alphabet has about 70 letters that are used, and guess what - each letter has a name! Most of the consonants in the English alphabet have a sound similar to their alphabetical name: b, c, d, f, g, j, k, l, m, n, p, q, r, s, t, v, x, z. All five of the regular vowels have sounds similar to their names. It's hardly rocket surgery. I agree phonics should be taught in Thai EFL.

We asked a Japanese why his language hasn't been simplified. No answer. Same for Chinese and Thai, Burmese and Khmer. Colonial Vietnam converted to a modified Roman-French alphabet.

If Thais have trouble with the English 26 letter alphabet, and a toneless language with less than a hundred phonemes, why should Mandarin be easier, if the tone rules are different?

And if 15% of non-ethnic-Chinese Thais become fluent in Mandarin by the year 2595, will all their online computer resources be in Chinese? Nope.

[mbkudu]

I was watching television last night and saw one of the most amazing things. It was about an American linguist who is employed by the Chinese government to travel around the country and document and photograph any public signs, notices or menus written in English that are incorrect or linguistically flawed. Most of the authorities and merchants that get his feedback are grateful and make the necessary corrections. Most of his work is around the sites for the Olympics. To me it is unbelievable that a country the size of China is able to undertake such an endeavor, yet a country such as Thailand chooses to totally ignore inaccuracies for decades on end.

[adjan jb]

China's emergence is good news for English teachers. You should be happy. Lots of new opportunities for all of you if it becomes too difficult and too expensive to work legally in Thailand.

[LaoPo]

China's emergence is good news for English teachers. You should be happy. Lots of new opportunities for all of you if it becomes too difficult and too expensive to work legally in Thailand.

Agree.

A Norwegian guy, married to a Chinese girlfriend of my wife makes RMB 8,000/month* + free apartment, teaching children English at a school in Hangzhou/Zhejiang Province (a 6 Million people city). He's not even qualified but the 'hunger' by schools for English teachers is enormous.

*RMB 8,000 = Euro 731 or US$ 1,144 or Thai Baht 36,000/month

LaoPo

[mbkudu]

One big difference between Thai and Chinese students; Chinese students WANT to learn English. On the same show I watched, an eighty-six year old Chinese tour guide was shown studying English in his spare time to better serve the growing numbers of English speaking tourists. All this activity may have a lot to do with the Olympics, but it shows that they have a lot of motivation to study English.

[PeaceBlondie]

The Asian countries that seem to be developing most rapidly, or have already reached developed status - China, Taiwan, Japan, S. Korea, Singapore - seem to have huge majorities who are serious about education, and learning EFL. They stand in stark contrast to sleeping Thailand.

[adjan jb]

They stand in stark contrast to sleeping Thailand.

Thailand needs a good... kiss