Growing Cassava In Thailand

[somo]

anthoma

What I will do, once I have tested the 18 month cycle, is harvest 25% on a yearly basis and replant leaving the other 75% for a further 6 months. The smaller annual crop will then provide enough stems each June to replant the whole area every other year. It may in fact be more profitable to let the whole lot grow for 18 months and then buy in new stems every other year but you just never know for sure that good quality stems will be available at a reasonable price when you want them.

Khonwan

I will probably do as you suggest and hand the land over to someone to grow mungbean/corn for free in return for some labour when harvesting. Land rents for 500 baht/rai/year in my area so if i got a couple of days work on each rai in return I would be happy.

I haven't looked into the economics of growing it myself but that could be a possibility.

Just to show my ignorance I don't even know what mungbean is One step at a time I guess and I have 18 months to look into it.

JR Texas

Khonwan has posted some stuff in this thread that should reassure you as ethanol plants are opening soon that should only increase the demand. Hope so anyway

Steve

[Khonwan]

Hi Khonwan

Thanks for the info. – very encouraging. Far from dissenting I just needed the additional info you have given before going against the tide. I will be experimenting next year by leaving half the cassava for an additional 6 months. The villagers, in addition to cash flow problems, also have a real problem getting their heads around the idea that a system that leaves the land idle for 6 months can actually lead to higher profits. The only way is to just do it and show them the money 

I live in Bangkok with my wife and all her direct family work here too except for her mum who just loves working in the fields and watches every baht spent.. I keep detailed accounts – even down to the cost of the string to tie up the stems into bundles! Having said that the whole village seems related to each other and there are loads of half brothers/sisters nephews etc. On the odd occasion anyone has quoted an excessive price they get a mouthful from mum in law.

I decided if I was going to get involved in any farming it had to stack up as a self contained business. To get the full picture I cannot assume any free labour and in any case I don’t think there is any such thing. If I don’t pay now I will pay later one way or the other. I pay the going rate of 150 baht for a 9 hour day. Until a couple of months ago it was 130 baht. Doing it this way at least gives me true picture of the costs

As regards machinery my small enterprise doesn’t warrant buying a tractor so I have no option but to sub the work out but I get the going rate. The way I figure it if things work out I will do it on a larger scale and later maybe get my own but the economics of that is a separate issue.

I have listed all my expenses below together with estimates for the future ones involved in a one year cycle. This should be useful to those considering growing cassava for the first time but are not sure of all the costs involved. Any suggestions as to how I can cut costs (without first investing loads of money) would of course be most welcome.

The land I have is in 2 plots so the below is based on starting from scratch with 12 rai of land. Later, when I have more land, there will be economies of scale but I think it shows a reasonable picture of what it costs to start up on a small scale.

...

Hi somo

Please see my replies in red below.

Rgds

Khonwan

STEMS

BUYING STEMS 7000

We bought the stems from 3.5 rai of man for 7000 baht which was a bit expensive but in early June that seemed the going rate for the #72 variety

Not bad. The price reached Bt4-5,000 per rai in my area.

LABOUR TO CUT STEMS 780 (NOW WOULD BE 900)

You appeared to have used 6 people to cut 3.5 rai – I find we average 1 person per rai therefore 3.5 rai should have taken only 4 people.

This was at a daily rate of 130 Baht which has now gone up to 150

Our local labour rates are also Bt150/day

TUK TUK TRANSPORT 500

STRING TO TIE BUNDLES 120

BOOZE FOR WORKERS 200

TOTAL FOR STEMS 8600 = 716/RAI

PLOUGHING 350/RAI (NOW IS 400/RAI)

I believe the current rate in my village is Bt280/rai and have read other members stating a figure of Bt300/rai. Bt400 sounds expensive.

TOTAL 2 LOTS PLOUGHING 8,400

Next year will be 4,800 as will need only 1 ploughing)

RT = 17,000

CHICKEN POO

20 BAGS AT 170 (now 220) 3,400

Very expensive in terms of value for money with regards to the NPK you get per baht compared to chemical fertiliser. How heavy is a bag? I guess no more than 20kg, if that (10kg?). As a rough guide, 1,000kg of this contains around the same weight of NPK as 50kg of chemical fertiliser. Also, 20 bags of organic fertiliser is far too little for 12 rai (assuming bags of around anything like 20kg) – waste of effort and money.

This poo is the dried concentrated form.

Concentrated? How? I assume simply dried chicken manure.

SPREADING POO 2 PEOPLE FOR 1 DAY = 300

TUK TUK TO BUY AND TRANSPORT POO 300

TOTAL POO COST 4000 = 333/RAI

RT = 21,000

PLANTING

FIXED PRICE OF 300/RAI

We average 1 person per rai @ Bt150 – half your cost.

TOTAL PLANTING 3,600

RT = 24,600

WEEDKILLING

COST OF CHEMICALS 1800

LABOUR FOR 12 RAI 3,450

(sprayers get 250 Baht/day as it is considered dangerous work)

Very expensive by our village standards. Our local rate is Bt130 per rai, or around Bt180 per 200 litres – and both these rates only apply if they are using their own spraying equipment.

TUK TUK FOR WATER 400 (200/DAY)

BOOZE 200

TOTAL TO SPRAY 12 RAI 5850 ( 488/RAI)

RT = 30,450 (2,538/RAI)

Above is what I have spent so far. Below are estimates of what will be spent.

ESTIMATE OF FURTHER COSTS.

SECOND WEEDING – 488/rai = 5856

CHEMICAL FERTILIZER 50Kg/RAI AT 1300/BAG = 15.600

SPREADING FERTILIZER 75/rai = 900

6 of us broadcast 16 bags of fertiliser over 16 rai a few days ago. Took us 2 hours. Bt150/9hrs=Bt17/hr. Cost=45minutes/rai@Bt17/hour=Bt13; figures rounded up. A neighbour hired 16 labourers yesterday to apply 50 bags fertiliser to 50 rai (to the base of his trees – slower than broadcasting) at a rate of Bt100/person. This works out at Bt32/rai. You are paying too much.

CUTTING STEMS PRiOR TO HARVESTING 300/rai = 3,600

As previously commented

TRACTOR TO UNEARTH MAN 400/rai = 4,800

Again, around Bt300/rai

HARVESTING AT SAY 5 TONS/RAI (150BAHT/TON) 9,000

Since you are applying only 1.7 bags of chicken manure and 50kg of chemical fertiliser, I would only count on 4t/rai.

TUK TUK TRANSPORT TO WHOLESALER 150B/TON 9.000

TOTAL FURTHER COSTS 48,756

TOTAL OUTLAY 79,206 = 6,600/rai/year

It is impossible to think of everything so I have allowed an extra 400 Baht/rai for the unexpected bringing it up to 7,000 Baht/rai. I have already had an unexpected expense with some bindweed on the other plot of land.

Note: The above includes 1 application of fertilizer but an initial dose of chicken poo. A 2nd would add a further 1350/rai to the cost bringing it to 7950/rai in total. (I will apply to the 18 month crop)

NB. Next year will save 8,600 on stems and 3,600 on ploughing ie about 1000Baht/rai bringing it down to around 6,000/rai/year

I state above (and in my spreadsheet – available in post #1, for the benefit of anyone just joining this thread) that we average one person/rai for cutting stems, one person/rai for planting, and one person/tonne for harvesting (which I know you’ve used above) – these figures are based on my own cassava experience and double-checked with Thai farmer friends in the my village who also grow cassava.

[somo]

Hi Khonwan and thanks for taking the time for such a detailed reply. Certainly food for thought.

STEMS

Glad to hear I got a good deal. I thought it was expensive and the ones I bought for the other parcel of land were less. Hopefully I will be able to sell some stems myself later and recoup some costs but I am not banking on it.

LABOUR TO CUT STEMS 780 (NOW WOULD BE 900)

You appeared to have used 6 people to cut 3.5 rai – I find we average 1 person per rai therefore 3.5 rai should have taken only 4 people

Possible saving 260 baht total = 22 Baht/rai (for the 12 rai I planted

PLOUGHING 350/RAI (NOW IS 400/RAI)

I believe the current rate in my village is Bt280/rai and have read other members stating a figure of Bt300/rai. Bt400 sounds expensive

The rate used to be 300 for a small tractor and 350 for a larger one which I went for but if I could get it done for less it would only save me 70 Baht/rai.

CHICKEN POO

20 BAGS AT 170 (now 220) 3,400

Very expensive in terms of value for money with regards to the NPK you get per baht compared to chemical fertiliser. How heavy is a bag? I guess no more than 20kg, if that (10kg?). As a rough guide, 1,000kg of this contains around the same weight of NPK as 50kg of chemical fertiliser. Also, 20 bags of organic fertiliser is far too little for 12 rai (assuming bags of around anything like 20kg) – waste of effort and money.

This poo is the dried concentrated form.

Concentrated? How? I assume simply dried chicken manure.

Not sure about this. Those that can afford it spread 50 sacks (about 40kg/sack) of fresh chicken poo/rai. Each sack costs 23 baht + 2 baht to spread =1250/rai but it has to be ordered well in advance so the suggested alternative was the dried stuff which is apparently more concentrated. If I had used the fresh stuff or 50kg of chemical fertilizer that would have cost 1300/bag (roughly the same) so the extra cost would be about 950/rai over the 333 I spent.

PLANTING

FIXED PRICE OF 300/RAI

We average 1 person per rai @ Bt150 – half your cost.

This price included the rental of the tuk tuk as well to transport the stems and workers. If I could half this cost it would save 150/rai

WEEDKILLING

COST OF CHEMICALS 1800

LABOUR FOR 12 RAI 3,450

(sprayers get 250 Baht/day as it is considered dangerous work)

Very expensive by our village standards. Our local rate is Bt130 per rai, or around Bt180 per 200 litres – and both these rates only apply if they are using their own spraying equipment.

Seems there are some local variations in costs but possible savings of 150 Baht/rai if I could get the same price.

Future costs.

My figures were only estimates so am happy to amend these

6 of us broadcast 16 bags of fertiliser over 16 rai a few days ago. Took us 2 hours. Bt150/9hrs=Bt17/hr. Cost=45minutes/rai@Bt17/hour=Bt13; figures rounded up. A neighbour hired 16 labourers yesterday to apply 50 bags fertiliser to 50 rai (to the base of his trees – slower than broadcasting) at a rate of Bt100/person. This works out at Bt32/rai. You are paying too much.

I guessed 75/rai so can save 43/rai

CUTTING STEMS PRIOR TO HARVESTING 300/rai = 3,600

As previously commented

Cutting stems prior to harvest save 150/rai

Not sure I can really save this as I am pretty sure topping, cutting and removing about 3,500 stems is a bit much for one person in a day

HARVESTING AT SAY 5 TONS/RAI (150BAHT/TON) 9,000

Since you are applying only 1.7 bags of chicken manure and 50kg of chemical fertiliser, I would only count on 4t/rai.

If I add the extra 50 kg of chemical fertilizer it would cost me 950/rai extra over the cost of the chicken poo.

Total possible savings above ( if I can get them) 585/rai

Net additional cost = 365/rai

This leaves me with a total cost of nearly 7,000 Baht/rai not including my 400 contingency so it seems I will have to spend more than I thought.

I think one expense that I have is that I have to get someone to organise things for me and they deserve some reward for that. For example the guy that does this for me was able to round up 20 workers, transport them to the 15 rai site (about 3 miles away) and get the whole lot planted in one session which went on well into the night. Not being there myself someone like him is worth his weight in gold and deserves a profit over and above his 150 baht.

Having said that I am now more convinced that an 18 month cycle is going to be essential to making a decent profit.

[JR Texas]

Hi.......as an aside......I just took a trip to Cambodia and saw no mansaparang/casava growing anywhere.......crossed the Thai border and saw it growing all over from Trat to Chantaburi to Rayong to Pattaya to Bangkok and all the way north to Petchaboon. Question: Are the experts here certain that the market can withstand such a huge load of product? I am worried about supply exceeding demand. Any input would be appreciated as we are considering planting 120 rai in the near future. Thanks.

Well I’m just a farmer with no other knowledge of the markets other than the press-articles I’ve been posting here so, no, I cannot be certain.

But I feel confident that since Thailand is the existing biggest exporter of tapioca and tapioca products and that the government is supporting bio-ethanol and bio-plastic production (both using tapioca), the price of fresh cassava will not fall below Bt2,000/t and is likely to achieve at least Bt2,500/t this year. But that is merely my opinion, for what it is worth.

Nothing in farming is guaranteed. There have been a great many “golden crops” in the recent past that have encouraged farmers here to invest only for them to find, usually several years down the line at maturity of their crops, that over production or other market factors has destroyed the value of their crop. Lamyais was one such crop. Rubber trees could be another – who knows at this time? But cassava is a short-term crop (8-18 months). You don’t need to have a long-term investment strategy with it…unless you are contemplating buying (more) land on the basis of cassava prices holding up for several years. If you are juggling with that, I wouldn’t like to comment too much.

Personally, I’m still keen to purchase another 100 rai or so (close to me) to plant more cassava. I am confident in this market. But then again, I was confident (and capable) in the pig farming market – then the floor dropped with prices falling to values not seen in 16 years or so.

I would certainly never advise anyone to go into farming as an investment. There are far less risky ways to make more money. I like the lifestyle. I love ‘owning’ and working land. Having purchased land for these reasons, I’m faced with the decision as to what to do with it to provide me with an acceptable (and positive!) return with (low) risk factors that I’m comfortable with. Cassava currently fits the bill for me. I believe it will continue to fit the bill over the next few years, at least. It is less risky than any other crop (including livestock) I can think of in terms of pest and impact of weather. The price of cassava was very unstable in the past (throughout most of the time I’ve grown it) but these new uses of the product have raised its value – I can’t see that changing.

Labour availability is the greatest threat to cassava farming in my opinion. Mechanisation of planting & harvesting of this crop is still in its infancy and currently less efficient than manual labour. The ever increasing shortage of willing labour and the rising costs of that labour will, of course, accelerate mechanical solutions – just as these factors did for other crops in the West.

Rgds

Khonwan

PS Your post was not a reply to the previous post, yet that post was quoted. I think I understand why. Rather than clicking on the “reply” tab after a post, click on the “add reply” tab slightly below the last post.

[JR Texas]

Hi.......as an aside......I just took a trip to Cambodia and saw no mansaparang/casava growing anywhere.......crossed the Thai border and saw it growing all over from Trat to Chantaburi to Rayong to Pattaya to Bangkok and all the way north to Petchaboon. Question: Are the experts here certain that the market can withstand such a huge load of product? I am worried about supply exceeding demand. Any input would be appreciated as we are considering planting 120 rai in the near future. Thanks.

Well I’m just a farmer with no other knowledge of the markets other than the press-articles I’ve been posting here so, no, I cannot be certain.

But I feel confident that since Thailand is the existing biggest exporter of tapioca and tapioca products and that the government is supporting bio-ethanol and bio-plastic production (both using tapioca), the price of fresh cassava will not fall below Bt2,000/t and is likely to achieve at least Bt2,500/t this year. But that is merely my opinion, for what it is worth.

Nothing in farming is guaranteed. There have been a great many “golden crops” in the recent past that have encouraged farmers here to invest only for them to find, usually several years down the line at maturity of their crops, that over production or other market factors has destroyed the value of their crop. Lamyais was one such crop. Rubber trees could be another – who knows at this time? But cassava is a short-term crop (8-18 months). You don’t need to have a long-term investment strategy with it…unless you are contemplating buying (more) land on the basis of cassava prices holding up for several years. If you are juggling with that, I wouldn’t like to comment too much.

Personally, I’m still keen to purchase another 100 rai or so (close to me) to plant more cassava. I am confident in this market. But then again, I was confident (and capable) in the pig farming market – then the floor dropped with prices falling to values not seen in 16 years or so.

I would certainly never advise anyone to go into farming as an investment. There are far less risky ways to make more money. I like the lifestyle. I love ‘owning’ and working land. Having purchased land for these reasons, I’m faced with the decision as to what to do with it to provide me with an acceptable (and positive!) return with (low) risk factors that I’m comfortable with. Cassava currently fits the bill for me. I believe it will continue to fit the bill over the next few years, at least. It is less risky than any other crop (including livestock) I can think of in terms of pest and impact of weather. The price of cassava was very unstable in the past (throughout most of the time I’ve grown it) but these new uses of the product have raised its value – I can’t see that changing.

Labour availability is the greatest threat to cassava farming in my opinion. Mechanisation of planting & harvesting of this crop is still in its infancy and currently less efficient than manual labour. The ever increasing shortage of willing labour and the rising costs of that labour will, of course, accelerate mechanical solutions – just as these factors did for other crops in the West.

Rgds

Khonwan

PS Your post was not a reply to the previous post, yet that post was quoted. I think I understand why. Rather than clicking on the “reply” tab after a post, click on the “add reply” tab slightly below the last post.

Thanks for the advice on what to click...........after this I will try "add reply." Just got an interesting email from Thailand's expert on cassava......will not use his name, but he said there was no such thing as a 30 t/rai cassava species. He did recommend the following: KU 50, Rayong 5 and Rayong 90

Thanks for the input on the possible oversupply problem.

[soic]

I have learned a lot from your posts Khunwan. I spent the month of November in TH. That is when I agreed to then send the money to buy the 70 rai in December / January. We had bought 10 rai sight unseen (from her Grandmother's sister) about a year ago but when I finally saw the land I had a gut feel that it was not a wrong thing to do.... It is very beautiful up there and I wanted to help create something that throws off some income independent of working for a big company....a bit if self sufficiency... My problem was that while I trust that they all know what they are doing (since some of them live up there and that is what they do) - I didn't know enough about the financial dynamics. I would just get a call - need fertiliser - need to weed - etc... don't worry - we are going to get $x per rai. Plus sometimes we were talking acres then rai then kilos / tons / raw roots versus chips - it was a bit confusing for me to sort out. I basically wanted to know the yields per rai, the prices and the expenses.... Now I have a pretty good understanding and I am quite happy about it all. Our land was a bit more expensive than 10K a rai (closer to 30) - so the payback is a bit longer. As we add land - they will be cheaper pieces to bring down the average cost. I love the location - beside the mountain and there is a temple there above us. From our 10 rai spot we look over to our 70 rai spot (2nd pic - can see the moutain in the back) ..... Attached is a pic from when the land was being cleared. My previous posts show the plants at 1 month. There is a sense of satisfaction in growing things and making a bit of money.....In BKK our office had about 40 people. I was the Finance Director and so I did the Budget and I know the salaries / bonuses etc... My accountant was top notch and I paid her 90K THB per month. But most middle managers make about 50K THB per month. So my goals was to create an income for the spouse that is comparable to having a decent job in BKK but without having a boss, daily grind etc... I think at 200 rai - it looks pretty good and as you said - the payback is not so long....

Thanks for the posts and I will keep learning!

Right now the wife and I have 5 rai... we hope to buy more this year. I'm also hoping to end my middle east work and stay in Thailand permanently, starting March 2009. I was wondering if I could ask your advice. I have decent savings, but I'm hoping not to have to use them. The only expenses that I expect to incur will be my regular Thai living expenses, our house and rental property, land and everything else is paid for, the only recuring expense would be my us child support of 20,000 to 30,000 a month. What I was wondering is, can you give me a ballpark figure of how much additional land I'd need to purchase to make a decent go of it? We have a restaurant and a shoe store, we're also getting ready to open a few other minor attractions, but I was looking for something in addition that would be a little more stable. I was born to a farm family in the states, we raised Pigs, Corn, Soybeans and Wheat. The concept is not new to me... Not knowing about the crops grown here, and the profit margins per rai, it's hard for me to come up with an amount of land, to have the wife buy. I'd appreciate any insight you could offer.

[Issangeorge]

just a caution who expect the price of cassava to keep going up. In June the starch factory outside Kalasin Town had posted 2.18 per kilo for cassava, at the end of July it was 2 and Sunday it was 1.84 so the price has been going down. Issangeorge

[somo]

just a caution who expect the price of cassava to keep going up. In June the starch factory outside Kalasin Town had posted 2.18 per kilo for cassava, at the end of July it was 2 and Sunday it was 1.84 so the price has been going down. Issangeorge

That kinda fits with the prices the farmers have been getting in my area except the early june it was just under 2.00 then late june 2.2 now not sure. As I understand it prices are lower in the rainy season for 2 reasons. Farmers are harvesting/replanting so there is plenty around + the starch content is lower when it is wet. This maybe adds more weight to Khonwans 18 month cycle as it means you are selling in December or maybe January when prices should be higher. This being my first year at it I just don't know for sure.

It would be nice to get a regular price report going here so we all know where we stand at any one time.

[Khonwan]

You can find current and historical weekly prices for fresh cassava tubers for each province here (in Thai):

http://www.thaitapiocastarch.org/market.asp

My local rate is Bt1,750/t (a neighbour sold some yesterday). Somo is correct in what he has posted. Nothing to fear Issangeorge – the price is always poor during the rainy season. Indeed, there are very few processors in my area who will even accept the crop at this time. It is just too difficult to sun-dry the tapioca properly on the concrete aprons. The tapioca is inevitably degraded resulting in poorer starch content.

Soic, your post is in the cassava thread so I’ll restrict my limited comments to that crop. I can only advise you to examine my spreadsheet (post #1 this thread) and amend it to your circumstances, e.g. tractor hire and herbicide/fertiliser labour hire if applicable. The spreadsheet should give you an idea of the costs and likely profit. You will need to use that information and decide for yourself whether the likely profit is sufficient to cover the cost of land (which varies in price tremendously), etc., within a timeframe acceptable to you.

Rgds

Khonwan

[Khonwan]

Cassava prices may be about to peak

PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

Bangkok Post, 21st August 2008

Rising supply and a fall in world cereal prices could put pressure on cassava prices over coming months.

Domestic production of cassava root is expected to top 30 million tonnes this year compared with 24-25 million tonnes last year, according to Chen Wongboonsin, the president of the Thai Tapioca Association.

However, Mr Chen believes a major price reduction is not imminent.

''Prices of cassava may ease by the end of the year when production peaks, but I don't expect a sharp drop in prices as demand from the ethanol industry should help support prices,'' he said.

Prices of cassava roots have been increasing in the past two years and are now around 1.8-2.0 baht per kg, compared with 2.50-2.70 baht in the first half of the year and 1.8 baht last year.

The Commerce Ministry is expected to meet with the association next week to decide whether an intervention scheme is needed to help shore up prices.

Thailand's exports of tapioca are also expected drop sharply this year. From January to May, the country exported 1.8 million tonnes of tapioca, down from 2.7 million tonnes in the same period last year, according to Agriculture Ministry data.

High prices have prompted China, the main market for the commodity, to shift to alternative products _ which has helped cut exports to China this year by 75% year-on-year to only 500,000 tonnes.

The Chinese government, which also tightened export controls on commodities to ensure a stable food supply in the run-up to the Olympics, has been encouraging ethanol and foodstuff producers to use domestic corn instead of imported tapioca.

However, Thai exports of tapioca are currently fetching about $190 per tonne, up sharply from $110 last year. Prices have been pushed higher by strong demand in Europe, where buyers have been attracted to tapioca after drought hit other commodities last year.

[catwho]

Anyone have prices from their area now [even though wet season prices are down].

and foreigner we have not heard back from you.

cat

[gonzobrains]

Which cassava variety is that?  Are you using the foliage for anything?  Like for feed?

picture trees 2 months ago planted, height > 2 mtr. , the weeds will not grow anymore because of the high trees. First 2-3 months focus on fast growing tree, after 3 months focus on roots.

picture roots after 6 months 12 kg

picture trees 9 months

picture 9 months same trees and roots (?)

stemps planted in rows, spacing 80-100cm

1 rai 2000 stemps

Expected 24 tonnes/rai average

[CADLoeiFarmer]

So far so good for my Cassava project. We started for the first time this year. All is running well. I enjoy Khonwan's posts. Spouse is in charge of getting this going - I am in Canada - but I have a very good idea of what is happening from these posts. We have corn and Eucalyptus going as well...

[dave_boo]

So far so good for my Cassava project. We started for the first time this year. All is running well. I enjoy Khonwan's posts. Spouse is in charge of getting this going - I am in Canada - but I have a very good idea of what is happening from these posts. We have corn and Eucalyptus going as well...

Looks like they're coming along nicely. Here's hoping you get a nice crop.

[DaveD]

So far so good for my Cassava project. We started for the first time this year. All is running well. I enjoy Khonwan's posts. Spouse is in charge of getting this going - I am in Canada - but I have a very good idea of what is happening from these posts. We have corn and Eucalyptus going as well...

Hi and please forgive me for side tracking .I would make a new thread but i want to ask you.You stated that you are in canada and that you wife is working your farm.At the moment my wife and i are here in ireland .it would be a great help to our plan if she could go back to thailand and stay sometimes to ensure things are being done the way we instruct ,on our land .However i can only state the way i feel.My wife works with me here ,we are together 24 hours each day,she is like a limb to me ,and for her to go ,even for a short time will be a tough time for me.Also my wife feels the same ,but i feel if she can go and take care of things for a short time ,it will make her stonger and give her a bigger sense of responsibility especially in standing up to her family.I say a short time ,yes ,because i feel if you stay apart ,you will grow apart.(look at movie star marriages).we stay together and we are very close.

Sorry if off topic ,and mods feel free to move .However i feel the poster and myself are not the only guys here ,farming from farangland.

Dave

[jingjoke]

I hope the government and the ethanol producers can use all the extra Mun they will have this (next) year.... From highway 2 all the way to Chaiyaphum on highway 201 was a huge change from whatever crop to mun.

My sentiments exactly Gary, glut the market and the price will drop....[/q

Concur. This is exactly what happened to the Longan market in the CMai area. The longan was selling upwards of 40B/kilo 7-8 years ago. Farmers trashed what crops they had, planting longan. Prices last year and the previous year were ~2-5 B/lo. Farmers could not recoup their costs let alone make a profit thus longan orchards are out of favour and disappearing. China would not import longan 2 yrs ago stating the fruit had too much unsafe chemicals; yet a few months later said they'd buy for 2B/lo - a scam.

This past July, prices were back up to ~10-22B/lo.

[Issangeorge]

On Friday the price for cassava at the plant just east of Somdet in Kalasin was 1.98 per kilo, up from the previous week. Issangeorge.

[somo]

Thanks for the update. So it's not all doom and gloom just yet

[CADLoeiFarmer]

Hi Dave - yes - some days are bad. Tougher for the woman. However - I remind her that if she was here right now in canada - none of this would have been done in the last 8 months and it is a great foundation to build on and grow. Luckily I live in a small town here and I now live a very quiet life (versus my 8 years in Asia when out all the time).

We had her brother helping at the start - had to "fire" him and now he is back and working great - he added a lot of corn on rented land - he sees the light on the money to be made. She has had to visit the farm a few times and push them. Also - we are building a house in Udon - so the timing was just that she had to be there. Getting very close for a break for her to come here though. In summary - at the end of the day - the feeling of accomplishment will / has outweighed the hardship.

[DaveD]

Hi Dave - yes - some days are bad. Tougher for the woman. However - I remind her that if she was here right now in canada - none of this would have been done in the last 8 months and it is a great foundation to build on and grow. Luckily I live in a small town here and I now live a very quiet life (versus my 8 years in Asia when out all the time).

We had her brother helping at the start - had to "fire" him and now he is back and working great - he added a lot of corn on rented land - he sees the light on the money to be made. She has had to visit the farm a few times and push them. Also - we are building a house in Udon - so the timing was just that she had to be there. Getting very close for a break for her to come here though. In summary - at the end of the day - the feeling of accomplishment will / has outweighed the hardship.

Hi and thanks for your comments .it looks like you have a big oppereatyion going on ,that will need close supervision.my wife has gone back for three weeks to check things out and also to renew her passport ,she has used her phone to email me current pics of the cassava and corn .also she will organise any fertilizer.

i was sad to see the pics of the cattle that now resemble skin and bone.i dont know what to do about them ,they are only getting grass ,any money we send for nuts gets diverted .They were being kept very well up until now.its hard for my wife being the youngest sister as she has to defer in some way to all the others.she is becoming more self reliant ,but its not easy for her to go against years of hard wiring.i miss her very much and wuill be glad when she returns.wish you every success.

Dave

[Khonwan]

15 September

Bangkok Post

Thai crops likely to enjoy price windfall next season Strong world markets and greater use of crops in the energy field will continue to push up the prices of Thailand's agricultural crops next season, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

Declining world production will also help lift prices of sugar, maize, palm oil, and tapioca. Together with rice, these economic crops account for about 70% of the total value of the country's agricultural products, estimated at more than 1.1 trillion baht last year.

According to the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE), the price of maize would stay high despite higher production. The agency estimates the volume of maize, to be harvested mainly from this month to November, at 3.75 million tonnes, a slight increase from 3.67 million tonnes in the last harvest.

Domestic demand for maize should remain high, at four million tonnes, while demand abroad keeps rising.

The United States has planned to use more maize in the ethanol industry, from 23% to 33% of total production, according to OAE secretary-general Apichart Jongskul.

''Prices will fall a little when over 50% of annual output enters the market promptly during these three rainy months,'' he said.

The price of maize, used in the animal feed industry, is about 8.10 to 8.20 baht per kilogramme.

Production of sugarcane for the 2008-09 season, to be harvested in November, is expected at 69.7 million tonnes, down from 73.5 million tonnes, as farmers have shifted to grow other lower-cost crops, tapioca and rubber, he said.

However, smaller world sugar production, a four-million-tonne drop from 164 million tonnes last year, has pushed up prices of raw sugar for delivery next year to 15 cents per pound.

The improvement would consequently raise the sale price of sugarcane to 800 baht per tonne from 600 baht, forcing the state to offer a subsidy programme to finance the produce at 807 baht a tonne.

Boosted by the biodiesel scheme, prices of palm oil will stay high this year and move around 4.50 to 5 baht per kilogramme despite higher production of 8.45 million tonnes versus 6.08 million tonnes of palm nut produced last year.

For tapioca, production is expected to rise by 13% this year to tap nearly 29 million tonnes of cassava roots. He estimates prices may not be as high as last year at 1.93 baht per kg on average, but they will move strongly at about 1.70 baht thanks to continued demand from the ethanol industry.

[Issangeorge]

I just drove by a plant 26 kilometres east of Kalasin and there posted price was 1.71 I believe. It was 1.71 and it definitely was 1.7 something. Issangeorge

[JR Texas]

I just drove by a plant 26 kilometres east of Kalasin and there posted price was 1.71 I believe. It was 1.71 and it definitely was 1.7 something. Issangeorge

Just saw 1700 baht per ton near Pong Nam Ron........lots of mansaparang in the area........looks good because the soil and climate are great for mansaparang (not to mention the inexpensive Khmer labor). Maybe I am wrong, but I think last December it was around 2500 baht per ton. That is a huge decline but it might be normal during the rainy season and it was raining each day in PNR.

For the record, I decided not to grow mansaparang. I think too much is being grown now and anticipate a major drop in price. Instead, I rented a lamyai orchard with 78 huge trees. Maybe a good move......maybe a bad move..........but that is farming.

GOOD LUCK!

[Khonwan]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/260908_Business...p2008_biz44.php

Shell delays E20 on supply concerns

Tight ethanol market may ease by year-end

YUTHANA PRAIWAN

Shell will delay its launch of E20 gasohol from the third quarter to the end of the year because of an ethanol supply shortage.

"If we expand our gasohol pump network as planned earlier, it requires at least 200,000 litres of ethanol per day. But now I don't think we can make it as ethanol makers prefer to export to gain higher profits," said Tiraphot Vajrabhaya, the chairman of Shell Thailand.

"When people talk about 1.5 million litres per day of ethanol, it is misleading. The figure is in fact the full capacity in theory. Due to some production conditions, the ethanol makers can produce just 800,000 litres per day," he said.

Some producers have secured orders through delivery contracts overseas. Demand for ethanol will outpace the country's output by about 10 million litres in October and 13.6 million litres in November, he said.

Three million cars now run on gasohol 95 and 91 and 150,000 cars on E20. Only five units are using E85, and all are under fuel-quality test runs.

Shell has stocked a total of seven million litres of ethanol compared to PTT's 10 million litres.

Chanachai Chutimavoraphan, assistant vice-president of Thailand's fourth largest sugar producer and ethanol maker, KSL Group Plc, said the shortage was caused by the maintenance shutdowns of some plants, more export orders and the scarce supply of molasses, a major raw material.

Meanwhile, cassava-based ethanol is more costly to produce, at 21-22 baht a litre, compared to Thailand's benchmark ethanol price of 18.01 baht a litre, according to the Energy Planning and Policy Office.

Mr Chanachai said the shortage of molasses may ease at the end of this year after a new sugar crop hits the market in the fourth quarter.

However, Pornchai Rujiprapha, permanent secretary of the Energy Ministry, disagrees with oil company complaints about the ethanol supply shortage, saying the current output is sufficient to serve rising demand.

He said that during the sugar crop off-season, all oil firms should expect to see molasses shortages, which is why they secure supply through long-term purchasing contracts with major ethanol producers.

Ethanol demand in Thailand for the first seven months was 900,000 litres a day, on par with current output, he said. Molasses production this year is likely to top 3.3 million tonnes, with 580,000 tonnes destined for export, Mr Pornchai forecast.

"Shell chooses to have a long-term purchasing pact with only one ethanol supplier, resulting in uncertain supply."

Mr Pornchai also cast doubt on the theory that tight supply is being caused by producers intentionally delaying ethanol output in order to boost the benchmark rate that is reviewed quarterly. The last quarterly rate of the year will be announced next month, with expectations it will rise to 22 from 18 baht a litre.

Anusorn Saengnimnuan, the president of Bangchak Petroleum Plc, said ethanol supply may slightly tighten in the fourth quarter as five producers plan maintenance shutdowns, reducing output by 400,000 litres a day.

However, two new ethanol plants are expected to produce 300,000 litres a day in that quarter, easing the shortage.

[Khonwan]

Bangkok Post, 26 September

State help sought for cassava glut

Feed industry urged to use more tapioca

WALAILAK KEERATIPIPATPONG

Local tapioca manufacturers say the government should buy at least five million tonnes of cassava from the new crop in order to stabilise prices that are expected to fall in a slowing market.

Industry surveys conducted last week found that local cassava production from the 2008-09 crop would be 29.15 million tonnes, a rise of 15% from the previous crop, as a result of larger plantations and higher yields.

Favourable prices last year driven by the ethanol craze have induced planters, raising the harvesting acreage this year above eight million rai, from 7.39 million a year earlier. In addition, the average yield per rai has improved to 3.64 tonnes from 3.4 tonnes, according to the Thai Tapioca Trade Association.

Chen Wongboonsin, the association's president said that in recent discussions with the Commerce Ministry's Internal Trade Department, planters and manufacturers agreed that tate intervention was necessary to prevent a price slump.

Farmers are worried that slowing demand from Europe and lack of clarity in the Thai government's ethanol policy could push down cassava prices. The root is currently fetching 1.70 to 1.80 baht per kilogramme, down from 2.70 baht early this year.

They have proposed that the government buy surplus output of around five million tonnes, at prices between 1.90 and 2.20 baht per kilogramme.

The Internal Trade Department will consider appropriate pledging prices to minimise the effect on export prices and on the government budget.

According to Mr Chen, tapioca pellet exports to the 27 countries of the European Union, the largest buyer, are likely to decline as EU grain production this year is up 25% to 304 million tonnes.

In the first eight months of 2008, the EU bought about 1.4 million tonnes of pellets from Thailand to use in livestock feed, about 500,000 tonnes higher than in the same period last year. A severe drought in the EU last year contributed to brisk sales of Thai tapioca pellets in the first half of this year.

Mr Chen said he was confident that with state intervention, the market would remain healthy thanks to more demand from the local animal feed industry. It is estimated that the industry will use as much as two million tonnes of pellets to mix with soybean meal, resulting in the equivalent nutritive value of maize.

As well, non-EU buyers that include South Korea, the Philippines and Indonesia are significant markets that could together import up to 500,000 tonnes of pellets from Thailand next year.

Despite the decline in imports of tapioca chips from Thailand this year, China is expected to remain a big customer for the product, use largely in its alcohol industry, as world maize prices are on the rise, reflecting a forecast drop in US production.

He said that tapioca demand from the native and modified starch industries also remained strong, estimated at 15 million tonnes of roots next year. As well, the opening of two or three new ethanol plants next year would drive demand to at least two million tonnes of cassava per year.

Currently, there is one ethanol plant that uses cassava, with annual demand of 300,000 to 400,000 tonnes.

[Khonwan]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/290908_Business...p2008_biz27.php

Ethanol benchmark price looks set to rise 22% in Q4

YUTHANA PRAIWAN

The ethanol benchmark price is likely to rise by 22% in the fourth quarter to 24 baht a lire, according to the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO).

Thailand uses Brazil's Sao Paulo market as a reference in setting local benchmark prices, which are reviewed each quarter. Based on current trends, the fourth-quarter price would rise to 22 baht a litre from 18.01 baht at present, plus transport and premium fees of more two baht a litre.

The rising popularity of ethanol-based fuels in Brazil, Europe, North and South America is the major factor behind ethanol price increases, said Viraphol Jirapraditkul, the EPPO director-general.

But Chalush Chinthammit, assistant vice-president of KSL Group Plc, Thailand's fourth-largest sugar producer, said ethanol prices were still very competitive and would remain so unless crude oil dropped to US$40 a barrel.

An Energy Ministry source said Shell had delayed a plan to sell E20 fuel because its major ethanol supplier, Thai Alcohol, declined to offer new supplies as it believed prices would rise soon.

Thai Alcohol also is facing more demand from its liquor subsidiaries ahead of the year-end festive season.

Ethanol shortages are becoming a serious concern as the popularity of alternative fuels surges. Current regulations cover inventories and product safety standards but officials cannot directly control producers' business activities.

There has been a proposal to put the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) in charge of the industry with full authority to regulate all types of alternative fuels.

The source said another shortage could occur after the next sugar harvest season, given rising ethanol demand, not only in Thailand but also in Japan, Korea, the Philippines and China.

[IsaanAussie]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/290908_Business...p2008_biz27.php

Ethanol benchmark price looks set to rise 22% in Q4

YUTHANA PRAIWAN

The ethanol benchmark price is likely to rise by 22% in the fourth quarter to 24 baht a lire, according to the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO).

Thailand uses Brazil's Sao Paulo market as a reference in setting local benchmark prices, which are reviewed each quarter. Based on current trends, the fourth-quarter price would rise to 22 baht a litre from 18.01 baht at present, plus transport and premium fees of more two baht a litre.

The rising popularity of ethanol-based fuels in Brazil, Europe, North and South America is the major factor behind ethanol price increases, said Viraphol Jirapraditkul, the EPPO director-general.

But Chalush Chinthammit, assistant vice-president of KSL Group Plc, Thailand's fourth-largest sugar producer, said ethanol prices were still very competitive and would remain so unless crude oil dropped to US$40 a barrel.

An Energy Ministry source said Shell had delayed a plan to sell E20 fuel because its major ethanol supplier, Thai Alcohol, declined to offer new supplies as it believed prices would rise soon.

Thai Alcohol also is facing more demand from its liquor subsidiaries ahead of the year-end festive season.

Ethanol shortages are becoming a serious concern as the popularity of alternative fuels surges. Current regulations cover inventories and product safety standards but officials cannot directly control producers' business activities.

There has been a proposal to put the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) in charge of the industry with full authority to regulate all types of alternative fuels.

The source said another shortage could occur after the next sugar harvest season, given rising ethanol demand, not only in Thailand but also in Japan, Korea, the Philippines and China.

Dear K,

I have an interest in cassava, not as a grower but as a consumer. The last time I looked the local prices were arounf 1.9 baht per kg. At that rate I am happy to buy from farmers and prepare pig feeds myself, much better than average of 15 baht commercial feeds. At that rate, I could never produce near break even volume on the meagre land area I have.

Can I ask you as a grower and someone who follows this issue closely, what is the future here?

Will the delayed ethanol plants usually be built?

Can farmers profit from growing cassava? (I am assuming that we are talking small holding Thai farmers with traditional equipment and limited cash.)

Is the traditional starch industry still growing?

Locally, considering the drop back in fuel prices, what's the production costs comparison now?

Note: I have an interest in alternate fuels, but biodiesel and oil seed not ethanol.

Hope you have some time to share your views

Isaanaussie

[HKChris]

I have learned a lot from your posts Khunwan. I spent the month of November in TH. That is when I agreed to then send the money to buy the 70 rai in December / January. We had bought 10 rai sight unseen (from her Grandmother's sister) about a year ago but when I finally saw the land I had a gut feel that it was not a wrong thing to do.... It is very beautiful up there and I wanted to help create something that throws off some income independent of working for a big company....a bit if self sufficiency... My problem was that while I trust that they all know what they are doing (since some of them live up there and that is what they do) - I didn't know enough about the financial dynamics. I would just get a call - need fertiliser - need to weed - etc... don't worry - we are going to get $x per rai. Plus sometimes we were talking acres then rai then kilos / tons / raw roots versus chips - it was a bit confusing for me to sort out. I basically wanted to know the yields per rai, the prices and the expenses.... Now I have a pretty good understanding and I am quite happy about it all. Our land was a bit more expensive than 10K a rai (closer to 30) - so the payback is a bit longer. As we add land - they will be cheaper pieces to bring down the average cost. I love the location - beside the mountain and there is a temple there above us. From our 10 rai spot we look over to our 70 rai spot (2nd pic - can see the moutain in the back) ..... Attached is a pic from when the land was being cleared. My previous posts show the plants at 1 month. There is a sense of satisfaction in growing things and making a bit of money.....In BKK our office had about 40 people. I was the Finance Director and so I did the Budget and I know the salaries / bonuses etc... My accountant was top notch and I paid her 90K THB per month. But most middle managers make about 50K THB per month. So my goals was to create an income for the spouse that is comparable to having a decent job in BKK but without having a boss, daily grind etc... I think at 200 rai - it looks pretty good and as you said - the payback is not so long....

Thanks for the posts and I will keep learning!

Hi CADLoeiFarmer,

I'm a bit late to this thread but I hope you get 'posted' with this response. I too have land in Ban Dung, as well as some rubber up around Bung Kan - I'd really like to get into contact and 'compare notes'. I'm at a loss to know what to grow on this land (about 20 rai) - its been used mainly for rice in the past but I'm wanting something of realtively low maintenance.

Thanks for your post - and to all the others.... very informative!

[Issangeorge]

I just drove by the cassava plant outside of Kalasin, last week it was 1.66 per kilo, today it was 1.56, it seems to be going down with the price of oil. Issangeorge.

[Cassavaman]

can anyone recommend a good cassava variety with high yield and high recovery? and where can i purchase them.