The Good 'ol Dollar

[gpdjohn]

Did I see correctly this morning in the Bangkok Post...that the US Dollar was now at alittle over 32 Bhat?

Is this signs of better times??

[Ulysses G.]

I hope so.

I don't have any dollars and have to work for a living, but I am tired of listening to all my buddies - who are retired and rolling in dough - whine.

[Ajarn]

No. I figure a good dollar rate is 45 baht to the dollar, like it was a couple of years ago. I had some money sent over when it was 35 baht and I figure I lost about 50,000 baht because of the rate...

[mobs00]

May 13th 2008

Onshore rate: 32.17 (BKK Post)

Offshore rate: 31.91 (XE.com)

I believe, and correct me if I am wrong, the onshore rate is only used internally in Thailand and not recognized as the true rate by world markets. You can't even find the onshore rates in most international financial publications. It is one of the only, if not the only country to use this system. To me it makes no sense, If I bring cash to the country I get a higher exchange rate than if I was to transfer it in. These numbers also move independently of each other due to factors I don't yet understand. I remember not to long ago there was a difference of at least 3 baht between the on and offshore rates, the gap now seems to have closed substantially.

Edited May 13, 2008 by mobs00

[wolfmanjack]

May 13th 2008

Onshore rate: 32.17 (BKK Post)

Offshore rate: 31.91 (XE.com)

I believe, and correct me if I am wrong, the onshore rate is only used internally in Thailand and not recognized as the true rate by world markets. You can't even find the onshore rates in most international financial publications. It is one of the only, if not the only country to use this system. To me it makes no sense, If I bring cash to the country I get a higher exchange rate than if I was to transfer it in. These numbers also move independently of each other due to factors I don't yet understand. I remember not to long ago there was a difference of at least 3 baht between the on and offshore rates, the gap now seems to have closed substantially.

If you transfer US$ then you get the onshore rate when the money is converted inside thailand.

[tigerbeer]

the only pissoff for me for the dollar dropping is that petroleum prices go up..

otherwise i don't really give a dam_n.

Edited May 13, 2008 by tigerbeer

[ollylama]

May 13th 2008

Onshore rate: 32.17 (BKK Post)

Offshore rate: 31.91 (XE.com)

I believe, and correct me if I am wrong, the onshore rate is only used internally in Thailand and not recognized as the true rate by world markets. You can't even find the onshore rates in most international financial publications. It is one of the only, if not the only country to use this system. To me it makes no sense, If I bring cash to the country I get a higher exchange rate than if I was to transfer it in. These numbers also move independently of each other due to factors I don't yet understand. I remember not to long ago there was a difference of at least 3 baht between the on and offshore rates, the gap now seems to have closed substantially.

i think that was only when thailand imposed capital controls to stop the baht's rise. it backfired. anyway, seems that's all over with now. the onshore rate and the offshore rate are the same:

http://x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph120.html. not sure why xe.com is different.

as far as i understand it, it was due to supply and demand - when thailand imposed the capital controls the supply of baht outside the country grew smaller, or people thought it would grow smaller, and got more valuable in relation to the dollar. not sure exactly, maybe an economist can explain.

[gpdjohn]

So, if I run to the ATM close by, am I gunna get 32 or 31 to the dollar???

UG, I'm retired, but surely not rolling in the dough...

[Ulysses G.]

Anyone who doesn't have to work and can afford to travel and eat good and live it up, is rich as far as I'm concerned!

[chiang mai]

No. I figure a good dollar rate is 45 baht to the dollar, like it was a couple of years ago. I had some money sent over when it was 35 baht and I figure I lost about 50,000 baht because of the rate...

[PeaceBlondie]

Anyone who doesn't have to work and can afford to travel and eat good and live it up, is rich as far as I'm concerned!

Yes, it is all relative. I hope you can sell your chain of businesses for lotsa baht. I am closer to the poor-working-boy class than those folks who travel a lot, etc.

I only hope the dollar regains to 35 or 36.

[Ulysses G.]

I don't want to sell them. I want my staff to have good jobs and make good money and make sure that Chiang Mai has good books long into the future. Eventually, I will close a few down and work less hours, but that is down the road.

I think that I am much better off working part-time at something I enjoy, rather than not working at all.

[Rasseru]

No. I figure a good dollar rate is 45 baht to the dollar, like it was a couple of years ago. I had some money sent over when it was 35 baht and I figure I lost about 50,000 baht because of the rate...

Why stop there? Settle on a good dollar rate of, say, 45,000 baht to the dollar and you can enjoy the agony of losing billions when you send money over!

[Rasseru]

I don't want to sell them. I want my staff to have good jobs and make good money and make sure that Chiang Mai has good books long into the future. Eventually, I will close a few down and work less hours, but that is down the road.

I think that I am much better off working part-time at something I enjoy, rather than not working at all.

Bravo! Good goals and good self-understanding!

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

I've noticed that Naam has not responded to this thread. I assumed he has not found the crystal ball his dog hid some time back. Since I always enjoy his post, I have hunted high and low and came up with a dealer that has a special on crystal balls now. A very special price of $37.95 in cluding a stand. The stand should make it more difficult for the dog to haul it off and hide it, unless of course it is a very big dog. So Naam check out paganshopping.com

Look forward to new projections on the future in the future.

[SamSipEt]

the only pissoff for me for the dollar dropping is that petroleum prices go up..

otherwise i don't really give a dam_n.

don't even care about that - don't drive

[vagabond48]

May 13th 2008

Onshore rate: 32.17 (BKK Post)

Offshore rate: 31.91 (XE.com)

I believe, and correct me if I am wrong, the onshore rate is only used internally in Thailand and not recognized as the true rate by world markets. You can't even find the onshore rates in most international financial publications.

I am not sure about international financial publications but Visa Inc. has an exchange rate website that shows what appears to be the onshore amount, although today, it shows a slightly lower rate of 32.11. It is accurate since the baht rate on the amount I withdraw via my ATM DC is equal to the website's rate. Their website rate already deducts the 1% foreign exchange currency fee so the actual baht rate is 32.11 + 1%

http://corporate.visa.com/pd/consumer_serv....jsp?src=ex_rez

Edited May 13, 2008 by vagabond48

[Naam]

No. I figure a good dollar rate is 45 baht to the dollar, like it was a couple of years ago. I had some money sent over when it was 35 baht and I figure I lost about 50,000 baht because of the rate...

no such thing like USD/THB 45 "a couple of years ago". it's ~SEVEN years since a dollar fetched 45 Baht.

[Naam]

I've noticed that Naam has not responded to this thread.

i just responded with facts but hate to make any predictions. the prophets are all extinct by now (except some "prophets" on ThaiVisa).

[Mestizo]

For what its worth, x-rates.com pulls its feed from the Fed Reserve bank of NY. He has a perl script that pulls the one time per day and does the backend parsing, etc. (The owner of the x-rates.com site is a old friend/coworker/neighbor/drinking-buddy of mine.)

i think that was only when thailand imposed capital controls to stop the baht's rise. it backfired. anyway, seems that's all over with now. the onshore rate and the offshore rate are the same:

http://x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph120.html. not sure why xe.com is different.

as far as i understand it, it was due to supply and demand - when thailand imposed the capital controls the supply of baht outside the country grew smaller, or people thought it would grow smaller, and got more valuable in relation to the dollar. not sure exactly, maybe an economist can explain.

[Priceless]

No. I figure a good dollar rate is 45 baht to the dollar, like it was a couple of years ago. I had some money sent over when it was 35 baht and I figure I lost about 50,000 baht because of the rate...

no such thing like USD/THB 45 "a couple of years ago". it's ~SEVEN years since a dollar fetched 45 Baht.

Not to mention late January 1998 with the USD at ~55 THB. Those were the days (for foreigners, not for the Thais )

/ Priceless

[Naam]

No. I figure a good dollar rate is 45 baht to the dollar, like it was a couple of years ago. I had some money sent over when it was 35 baht and I figure I lost about 50,000 baht because of the rate...

no such thing like USD/THB 45 "a couple of years ago". it's ~SEVEN years since a dollar fetched 45 Baht.

Not to mention late January 1998 with the USD at ~55 THB. Those were the days (for foreigners, not for the Thais )

/ Priceless

i remember arriving in BKK on monday january 19th, 1998 and got 55.35 Baht for one dollar. called from the car my wife who was already in a BKK hotel who blurred out "CAN YOU IMAGINE I GOT LAST FRIDAY NEARLY 33 Baht FOR ONE DEUTSCH MARK?!" those were the days indeed and they'll never come back no matter what some wet dreamers hope for

[Naam]

For what its worth, x-rates.com pulls its feed from the Fed Reserve bank of NY. He has a perl script that pulls the one time per day and does the backend parsing, etc. (The owner of the x-rates.com site is a old friend/coworker/neighbor/drinking-buddy of mine.)

your friend can backend parse till doomsday but that will not change the rate local thai banks will exchange Dollars for Baht (based on the rates the BOT sets when and how it pleases)

[Mestizo]

For what its worth, x-rates.com pulls its feed from the Fed Reserve bank of NY. He has a perl script that pulls the one time per day and does the backend parsing, etc. (The owner of the x-rates.com site is a old friend/coworker/neighbor/drinking-buddy of mine.)

your friend can backend parse till doomsday but that will not change the rate local thai banks will exchange Dollars for Baht (based on the rates the BOT sets when and how it pleases)

Right. I was just pointing out the source and why it was different from other places. The poster I replied to had said "not sure why xe.com is different". I had asked a similar question myself in the past and just wanted to pass on what I had learned, in regards to that particular site...

For what its worth, there is a money exchange place in Bangkok called "Super Rich". After comparing all the rates (for USD exchange rates only) to all the Thai banks on several different trips to Thailand, they consistantly offered better rates. I would suggest if anyone is exchanging large sums of USD to THB, it might be worth your time to look into them. You'll need to call however, as the rates on thier website never seem to be updated.

I for one, am hoping and praying that the exchange rate keeps getting better. When moving here back in Nov of last year, I left most of my money in my US bank account. Now that I am ready to make a down payment on a car here, I can't stomach the thought of losing all that $$ because of low exchange rates

-Mestizo

[Ajarn]

No. I figure a good dollar rate is 45 baht to the dollar, like it was a couple of years ago. I had some money sent over when it was 35 baht and I figure I lost about 50,000 baht because of the rate...

no such thing like USD/THB 45 "a couple of years ago". it's ~SEVEN years since a dollar fetched 45 Baht.

You're kinda right. Not a couple of years ago, but not seven either. More like 5 years ago...

[chiang mai]

I can't stomach the thought of losing all that $$ because of low exchange rates

-Mestizo

This is a bit like all of those people who bought houses, saw them increase in value and then saw their prices fall - Jeez they say, I lost so much money. Well no they didn't, the loss only occurs when the transaction is actually made and comparing paper values at any point in time is largely meaningless. You can't stomach the thought of "losing all that $$" yet you really haven't lost anything, have you. Unless of course you think in terms of investments or financial transaction on a "what if" basis in which case you probably should not trade at all because you'll never be happy. When you convert your $ for local currency, you will receive fair value for it based on the timing of your choice and the prevailing rates at that time. I can only presume you must be happy with that else you would not make the conversion. Thinking in terms of how much better it might have been for you five or seven years ago, well, that's a bit silly and not very realistic.

[Naam]

No. I figure a good dollar rate is 45 baht to the dollar, like it was a couple of years ago. I had some money sent over when it was 35 baht and I figure I lost about 50,000 baht because of the rate...

no such thing like USD/THB 45 "a couple of years ago". it's ~SEVEN years since a dollar fetched 45 Baht.

You're kinda right. Not a couple of years ago, but not seven either. More like 5 years ago...

i am always "kinda right" when it concerns finances and i am stating facts and not fiction. the last time USD fetched 45 Baht was august 13th, 2001.

[lannarebirth]

Not too much to get excited about at under 33THB to the $. Over 33, that leaves the possibility open for a run to 38. The USD has undergone such an orderly selloff in recent years that one should expect overhead resistance at almost every level. The best argument it's got going for it is that most, if not all the other currencies are pretty shitty too.

[Huey]

At LEAST 7 years ago I came in late 2001 and it was 43 baht to the dollar and I don't remember it ever going above that..though I would totally shed tears of joy if it went back to 45 baht to the dollar

[LivinLOS]

Dollar will keep losing ground against asian currencies IMO.. But the big problem for dollar holders will be the same problem for all fiat currency holders.. RAMPANT inflation will now come down the pipe and wipe out savings and paper assets..

Thats what happens when you vote for fiscally irresponsible leaders who like guns and butter panem et circenses.. Remember deficits dont matter.. ohh how we laughed.. Recent estmates have M3 money supply rising 18% in the US.. Money supply and inflation have a .99 coefficient.. They are basically the same thing..

Hard assets the only choice with money supply inflation like that.