Failure Rate For Condos Nears 50%

[VegasVic]

It is a global downturn in the property sector..

The world is in real trouble on many levels...

sorry, but the sky is falling.

Yes, well, modern western capitalism was always just a big pyramid scheme built upon cheap energy (oil). The house of cards is finally beginning to tumble, more literally it is running out of gas, whilst the believers are down on their knees praying that their new god Technos will bring them salvation. Meanwhile those who prospered will more than likely keep the military generals happy by plying them with wine and women and false riches whilst fooling the foot soldiers into thinking they are protecting gods and country (propaganda), and will have orders issued to protect them, the current elite, from the historical "rabble".

Chaiyo!

Johnpa, Layoff the koolaid and try a few Sing Ha's, I am certain that you will feel much better and your outlook just might improve as well The speculative oil bubble will burst very soon and all will be forgiven, in the mean time try to enjoy life

[JSixpack]

most of the highly competitive and dominant electronics companies out there are Asian name brands like Sony, Samsung, etc.

But you're referring to incredible production and manufacturing prowess. However, still not many original and highly useful ideas come out of Asia. That may be because of the educational system and the other forms of regimentation. There is, however, notable refinement of original ideas and designs that originated and still are originating in the West.

I think you're probably unaware that these Asian companies have huge R&D centers in the West and it's usually Western people--the great variety of them--that initially come up with the ideas and creative product designs. I know this quite well, because I once worked for one of them. Our ideas and prototypes were always taken back to Japan for refinement and rollout.

Edited June 14, 2008 by JSixpack

[wintermute]

most of the highly competitive and dominant electronics companies out there are Asian name brands like Sony, Samsung, etc.

But you're referring to incredible production and manufacturing prowess. However, still not many original and highly useful ideas come out of Asia. That may be because of the educational system and the other forms of regimentation. There is, however, notable refinement of original ideas and designs that originated and still are originating in the West.

I think you're probably unaware that these Asian companies have huge R&D centers in the West and it's usually Western people--the great variety of them--that initially come up with the ideas and creative product designs. I know this quite well, because I once worked for one of them. Our ideas and prototypes were always taken back to Japan for refinement and rollout.

I don't buy this for a second and people make blanket statements like this for ethnocentric purposes. If it was all westerners behind recent innovation then certainly western companies would be reaping all the rewards for it. You wouldn't see companies like Sony, Samsung or even a Honda or Toyota.

They wouldn't exist because western competition would always dominate according to your theory. That's just not the case unless you're saying western businessmen are vastly inferior and allow a brain drain to the east to occur which is an even more preposterous assumption. It's a major catch-22 you're arguing yourself into. Btw, the R&D in companies like Samsung is mostly Korean. How do I know this? Well I work in arbitrage and I deal with lots of companies like Kingston and Samsung that produce memory chips.

Edited June 14, 2008 by wintermute

[wintermute]

That is the main problem with most farangs here (u.s. & brits) ... they think the world revolve around them ... and they are way wrong !

since you brought it up... my 2 cents.

I think the west (including the usa and britain) contribute a lot to the lifes of people around the world. and it doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

all you need to do is .. look around you.

when I go walk down the streets in MOST cities in thailand, (hel_l, in most CITIES IN THE WORLD), I see... stores from western countries, factories from western countries, technology that came from western countries, movies from western countries, cars from western countries, etc.

the technology around you from refrigerators, televisions, computers, plastics, gasoline, atms, telephones, lightbulbs, airplanes, cable tv, internet, etc. comes from western countries.

look at what happened to the countries that have not joined the west, and see where they stand in economic status.

when you think about it.. in a way, the world does revolve around the west. and I say this in a humble way not wishing to belittle others.

a fact - no bragging intented.

Methinks you forget Asia and its technology just a tad.

Then we have India and China coming up very fast.

As for joining the "West" - do you mean the capitalis economic system, the plural democratic sysem or what?

I am not forgetting anybody. definitely, china and india are a force. but the technology that is driving most asian countries comes from the west. when china and india start coming up with some MAJOR inventions to improve the human race, like some new vaccines, perhaps something that can change our dependence on oil? ..THEN, we can say they have contributed in the way of technology.

like I said, look around you. EVEN in china, I see starbucks, mcdonalds, burger king, televisions, internet, movies, dvds, etc. they are everywhere.

you ask, what is the "West"? think of burma, cuba, and north korea, etc. and you don't see the west.

What does this ... "the technology that is driving most asian countries comes from the west" mean? It's a meaningless ethnocentric statement especially considering that most of the highly competitive and dominant electronics companies out there are Asian name brands like Sony, Samsung, etc. Go look on store shelves sometime and see what the top sellers are.

Not to mention the vaunted western consumer vehicle industry is pretty tepid and also dominated by those "asians" that you seem to belittle at every turn. Ever hear of Toyota and Honda? Hmmm.

It doesn't matter if the original modern inventions were western. The dead inventors certainly aren't collecting royalty checks anymore and neither are their founding companies. The original inventions have moved way past their era.

I get this feeling you are trying to turn this discussion into a racist thing rather than an intellectual endeavor? tell me if I'm wrong?

like I earlier posted, my feedback was not intented to be insulting. it is constructive criticism meant to find a solution to the 50% failure rate of condos.

and in return for my suggestions, I get your "insults". and yes, they are insults. is your ego so fragile that you cannot accept constructive criticism?

your failure to realize that the world revolves around the west is a total denial of the truth. if it wasn't for all these great inventions that came from the west, you wouldn't have your ipods, and pretty much MOST electrical gadgets and devices we all use on an everyday basis.

I think china and india are a force and I welcome their future contributions to the human race. I think that is part of the reason why the west shared all their technology with the rest of the world. I mean, when you have over 3 billion people not inventing things, wouldn't you call that a waste?

as for your mention of samsung, and sony... I think many people would look at south korea and japan as part of the west. hel_l, they sure aren't communist.

before I end this post, let me just point out one last bit of information.... I get this feeling you think I'm "white"? am I correct? well, the truth of the matter is - I'm 100% asian. born and raised in america. my father and mother are both originally from china.

do you think all people in the "west" are white?

Heh, you're making all too many assumptions. I don't care what your ethnicity is I just think you're factually wrong on every level and you have an unhealthy obsession with what you define as eastern or western. I also like how when you feel you're losing the argument you go ahead and change the parameters..moving the goalposts if you will shifting entire country's origins willy nilly into baseless categorizations such as "I think many people would look at south korea and japan as part of the west. hel_l, they sure aren't communist." We aren't living the cold war, gramps.

Btw: the first mp3 player didn't come from the west and most of the modern innovation done to various parts of the PC like motherboards, memory chips, etc.. were done in Asia. That's why asian companies dominate that portion of that particular industry. See: Asus, Kingston, Gigabyte etc..

Edited June 14, 2008 by wintermute

[nick2k]

That is the main problem with most farangs here (u.s. & brits) ... they think the world revolve around them ... and they are way wrong !

since you brought it up... my 2 cents.

I think the west (including the usa and britain) contribute a lot to the lifes of people around the world. and it doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

all you need to do is .. look around you.

when I go walk down the streets in MOST cities in thailand, (hel_l, in most CITIES IN THE WORLD), I see... stores from western countries, factories from western countries, technology that came from western countries, movies from western countries, cars from western countries, etc.

the technology around you from refrigerators, televisions, computers, plastics, gasoline, atms, telephones, lightbulbs, airplanes, cable tv, internet, etc. comes from western countries.

look at what happened to the countries that have not joined the west, and see where they stand in economic status.

when you think about it.. in a way, the world does revolve around the west. and I say this in a humble way not wishing to belittle others.

a fact - no bragging intented.

Methinks you forget Asia and its technology just a tad.

Then we have India and China coming up very fast.

As for joining the "West" - do you mean the capitalis economic system, the plural democratic sysem or what?

I am not forgetting anybody. definitely, china and india are a force. but the technology that is driving most asian countries comes from the west. when china and india start coming up with some MAJOR inventions to improve the human race, like some new vaccines, perhaps something that can change our dependence on oil? ..THEN, we can say they have contributed in the way of technology.

like I said, look around you. EVEN in china, I see starbucks, mcdonalds, burger king, televisions, internet, movies, dvds, etc. they are everywhere.

you ask, what is the "West"? think of burma, cuba, and north korea, etc. and you don't see the west.

What does this ... "the technology that is driving most asian countries comes from the west" mean? It's a meaningless ethnocentric statement especially considering that most of the highly competitive and dominant electronics companies out there are Asian name brands like Sony, Samsung, etc. Go look on store shelves sometime and see what the top sellers are.

Not to mention the vaunted western consumer vehicle industry is pretty tepid and also dominated by those "asians" that you seem to belittle at every turn. Ever hear of Toyota and Honda? Hmmm.

It doesn't matter if the original modern inventions were western. The dead inventors certainly aren't collecting royalty checks anymore and neither are their founding companies. The original inventions have moved way past their era.

I get this feeling you are trying to turn this discussion into a racist thing rather than an intellectual endeavor? tell me if I'm wrong?

like I earlier posted, my feedback was not intented to be insulting. it is constructive criticism meant to find a solution to the 50% failure rate of condos.

and in return for my suggestions, I get your "insults". and yes, they are insults. is your ego so fragile that you cannot accept constructive criticism?

your failure to realize that the world revolves around the west is a total denial of the truth. if it wasn't for all these great inventions that came from the west, you wouldn't have your ipods, and pretty much MOST electrical gadgets and devices we all use on an everyday basis.

I think china and india are a force and I welcome their future contributions to the human race. I think that is part of the reason why the west shared all their technology with the rest of the world. I mean, when you have over 3 billion people not inventing things, wouldn't you call that a waste?

as for your mention of samsung, and sony... I think many people would look at south korea and japan as part of the west. hel_l, they sure aren't communist.

before I end this post, let me just point out one last bit of information.... I get this feeling you think I'm "white"? am I correct? well, the truth of the matter is - I'm 100% asian. born and raised in america. my father and mother are both originally from china.

do you think all people in the "west" are white?

Heh, you're making all too many assumptions. I don't care what your ethnicity is I just think you're factually wrong on every level and you have an unhealthy obsession with what you define as eastern or western. I also like how when you feel you're losing the argument you go ahead and change the parameters..moving the goalposts if you will shifting entire country's origins willy nilly into baseless categorizations such as "I think many people would look at south korea and japan as part of the west. hel_l, they sure aren't communist." We aren't living the cold war, gramps.

Btw: the first mp3 player didn't come from the west and most of the modern innovation done to various parts of the PC like motherboards, memory chips, etc.. were done in Asia. That's why asian companies dominate that portion of that particular industry. See: Asus, Kingston, Gigabyte etc..

here.. check this website out.. it lists the inventors of a number of inventions over the years.

http://www.ideafinder.com/history/inventors/a-z/letterA.htm

as for your list of companies that you suggested I review, don't you know that the founders of kingston are american? as for all those other companies, many of them received their educations from abroad.

many people in india and china worked in american companies as interns and on fellowship scenarios to gain their expertize in areas from biotech to farming. when I was in college, many of my friends were from asia studying architecture and guess what they are doing now? ..in upper and middle management in contruction sites all through china. when I was working, I worked with scientists from all around the world including india and china in a number of biotech firms located in america.

most of it is derived from western technologies, bro.

I am not going to say another thing more on the subject because I can talk until I'm blue in the face, and I know you will never acknowledge the contributions from the west. as far as you are concerned, the west didn't do anything.

peace.

[Moonrakers]

That is the main problem with most farangs here (u.s. & brits) ... they think the world revolve around them ... and they are way wrong !

since you brought it up... my 2 cents.

I think the west (including the usa and britain) contribute a lot to the lifes of people around the world. and it doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

all you need to do is .. look around you.

when I go walk down the streets in MOST cities in thailand, (hel_l, in most CITIES IN THE WORLD), I see... stores from western countries, factories from western countries, technology that came from western countries, movies from western countries, cars from western countries, etc.

the technology around you from refrigerators, televisions, computers, plastics, gasoline, atms, telephones, lightbulbs, airplanes, cable tv, internet, etc. comes from western countries.

look at what happened to the countries that have not joined the west, and see where they stand in economic status.

when you think about it.. in a way, the world does revolve around the west. and I say this in a humble way not wishing to belittle others.

a fact - no bragging intented.

Methinks you forget Asia and its technology just a tad.

Then we have India and China coming up very fast.

As for joining the "West" - do you mean the capitalis economic system, the plural democratic sysem or what?

I am not forgetting anybody. definitely, china and india are a force. but the technology that is driving most asian countries comes from the west. when china and india start coming up with some MAJOR inventions to improve the human race, like some new vaccines, perhaps something that can change our dependence on oil? ..THEN, we can say they have contributed in the way of technology.

like I said, look around you. EVEN in china, I see starbucks, mcdonalds, burger king, televisions, internet, movies, dvds, etc. they are everywhere.

you ask, what is the "West"? think of burma, cuba, and north korea, etc. and you don't see the west.

What does this ... "the technology that is driving most asian countries comes from the west" mean? It's a meaningless ethnocentric statement especially considering that most of the highly competitive and dominant electronics companies out there are Asian name brands like Sony, Samsung, etc. Go look on store shelves sometime and see what the top sellers are.

Not to mention the vaunted western consumer vehicle industry is pretty tepid and also dominated by those "asians" that you seem to belittle at every turn. Ever hear of Toyota and Honda? Hmmm.

It doesn't matter if the original modern inventions were western. The dead inventors certainly aren't collecting royalty checks anymore and neither are their founding companies. The original inventions have moved way past their era.

I get this feeling you are trying to turn this discussion into a racist thing rather than an intellectual endeavor? tell me if I'm wrong?

like I earlier posted, my feedback was not intented to be insulting. it is constructive criticism meant to find a solution to the 50% failure rate of condos.

and in return for my suggestions, I get your "insults". and yes, they are insults. is your ego so fragile that you cannot accept constructive criticism?

your failure to realize that the world revolves around the west is a total denial of the truth. if it wasn't for all these great inventions that came from the west, you wouldn't have your ipods, and pretty much MOST electrical gadgets and devices we all use on an everyday basis.

I think china and india are a force and I welcome their future contributions to the human race. I think that is part of the reason why the west shared all their technology with the rest of the world. I mean, when you have over 3 billion people not inventing things, wouldn't you call that a waste?

as for your mention of samsung, and sony... I think many people would look at south korea and japan as part of the west. hel_l, they sure aren't communist.

before I end this post, let me just point out one last bit of information.... I get this feeling you think I'm "white"? am I correct? well, the truth of the matter is - I'm 100% asian. born and raised in america. my father and mother are both originally from china.

do you think all people in the "west" are white?

Heh, you're making all too many assumptions. I don't care what your ethnicity is I just think you're factually wrong on every level and you have an unhealthy obsession with what you define as eastern or western. I also like how when you feel you're losing the argument you go ahead and change the parameters..moving the goalposts if you will shifting entire country's origins willy nilly into baseless categorizations such as "I think many people would look at south korea and japan as part of the west. hel_l, they sure aren't communist." We aren't living the cold war, gramps.

Btw: the first mp3 player didn't come from the west and most of the modern innovation done to various parts of the PC like motherboards, memory chips, etc.. were done in Asia. That's why asian companies dominate that portion of that particular industry. See: Asus, Kingston, Gigabyte etc..

here.. check this website out.. it lists the inventors of a number of inventions over the years.

http://www.ideafinder.com/history/inventors/a-z/letterA.htm

Whilst agreeing that most inventions come from the West, the website you posted often inaccurate and vastly incomplete.

For example: Alexander Bell is initially described as being an American inventor despite the fact that he is Scottish. (Although under "Nationality" he was lisyed as Scottish).

Also, for example, no mention of Frank Whittle, inventor of the jet engine!!

Also was the printing press a Korean invention, yet no mention of that.

Not having a dig as I may not be able to find a better site myself, but the one above does not represent a proper list of inventors at all.

Although it does manage to mention the inventor of the Teletubbies..... <deleted>.

[AGareth2]

so if you have a cash surplus there may be a few bargains?

[crab]

Rent or buy? Check the maths on a large, well-presented, expensively furnished 4-unit condo in View Talay 2 in Jomtien. Offered for sale at 8 million baht ( crazy, over the top); offered for rent ( yes, thank you) at 28,000. A return to the owner of some 4% minus his own costs and charges. Under these circumstances, ownership can only be a form of speculation on the property market. One that at the moment I am very happy to avoid.

[dotcom]

so if you have a cash surplus there may be a few bargains?

Keep your powder dry. BOT is in there now trying to support the baht at below 33. They learned NOTHING from 1997. Morons.

Give it 1 to 2 years & you will get some stunning buys on Condos.

[bKkRk]

...Generally speaking a house that sells off the plan say 2.5 million baht can be resold for about 1.8m-2million baht a few years later.Farangs be warned!

Do you have any data to support this statement? I am highly skeptical but very interested to what degree, if any, it is true.

[Johpa]

Johnpa, Layoff the koolaid and try a few Sing Ha's, I am certain that you will feel much better and your outlook just might improve as well The speculative oil bubble will burst very soon and all will be forgiven, in the mean time try to enjoy life

First, I have never enjoyed "bia singh" and still prefer a Mae Khong soda.

But perhaps more interestingly, just the other week a few of the talking heads on CNBC, the US financial television network spent a half hour arguing, actually agreeing amongst themselves, that the recent spike in oil was, as you also seem to believe, a result of speculators and that these speculators were, in the long run, good for the financial markets as they provided liquidity, whatever the heck that means. They then interviewed by phone the former head of exploration and a former very high mucky muck at Exxon (née ESSO née Standard Oil of New Jersey née Rockfeller) who I would assume is a tad more knowledgeable about the oil industry then the television commentators. To the clear chagrin of all three TV commentators, I mean you could see the wind being knocked out of their sails, the former Exxon exec made it clear to them that, in his opinion, only an insignificant fraction of the current price was based upon "speculators".

I am currently reading an excellent book on the subject, Peter Tertzakian's A Thousand Barrels a Second which presents a very reasoned and very readable explanation of why this is not a speculative bubble.

Oh, and rest assured, I do enjoy life.

[nick2k]

...Generally speaking a house that sells off the plan say 2.5 million baht can be resold for about 1.8m-2million baht a few years later.Farangs be warned!

Do you have any data to support this statement? I am highly skeptical but very interested to what degree, if any, it is true.

back in 1998, I had this friend who lived at the park beach condo complex off naklua 16 in pattaya. he asked me to check out some of the prices at the time. not knowing the real estate market, I was curious to see what was offered. get this, there was this one 3 bedroom 400 sqm. condo selling for 1.8 million baht at the time. word was the 1997 crash was so devastating for many thais, they were desperate to sell off assets to pay off debts. will it happen again? who knows.. the scenario is a little different now.

going back to the 1.8 million baht 400 sqm. condo... it was absolutely immaculate. but because I was a rookie at the time, I didn't buy the place. ugh! ..in 2001, I went back to look at the condos there because a friend of mine was interested in buying a place in pattaya. I didn't see a 400 sqm. unit for sale. but one of the 255 sqm. units was asking 15 million baht.

talk about lost opportunities... live and learn.

could it happen again? who knows?.... only the shadow knows....

[thaigene2]

so if you have a cash surplus there may be a few bargains?

Keep your powder dry. BOT is in there now trying to support the baht at below 33. They learned NOTHING from 1997. Morons.

Give it 1 to 2 years & you will get some stunning buys on Condos.

Yep - agree with that advice.

[cigar7]

After reading this entire thread to this point, can most agree that now is NOT the time to buy a condo in BKK, Pattaya or Jomtien?

If "stay in cash" is the recommendation, is it better to keep cash in Baht or US$ or CDN$ while waiting to pickup a condo bargain?

Edited June 15, 2008 by cigar7

[VegasVic]

Johnpa, Layoff the koolaid and try a few Sing Ha's, I am certain that you will feel much better and your outlook just might improve as well The speculative oil bubble will burst very soon and all will be forgiven, in the mean time try to enjoy life

First, I have never enjoyed "bia singh" and still prefer a Mae Khong soda.

But perhaps more interestingly, just the other week a few of the talking heads on CNBC, the US financial television network spent a half hour arguing, actually agreeing amongst themselves, that the recent spike in oil was, as you also seem to believe, a result of speculators and that these speculators were, in the long run, good for the financial markets as they provided liquidity, whatever the heck that means. They then interviewed by phone the former head of exploration and a former very high mucky muck at Exxon (née ESSO née Standard Oil of New Jersey née Rockfeller) who I would assume is a tad more knowledgeable about the oil industry then the television commentators. To the clear chagrin of all three TV commentators, I mean you could see the wind being knocked out of their sails, the former Exxon exec made it clear to them that, in his opinion, only an insignificant fraction of the current price was based upon "speculators".

I am currently reading an excellent book on the subject, Peter Tertzakian's A Thousand Barrels a Second which presents a very reasoned and very readable explanation of why this is not a speculative bubble.

Oh, and rest assured, I do enjoy life.

Johnpa, I am glad to hear that you are not one of those bitter expats that I so frequently run into here on TV, as far as the high mucky muck from Exxon is concerned, what would you expect him to say, that oil should be at $45-$50/bbl? (of course not). The boys at Exxon are loving this bubble as they are setting new net profit records each and every quarter. Here's a free tip, don't put too much faith into what the talking heads are saying on CNBC or Bloomberg as they are generally talking up their book just as the Exxon executive was doing. If you took a few minutes and did some DD of your own you would have found out that a year ago the price of oil was in the $65-$70/bbl range (and even at that level there was a $15 or so of speculation priced in), then if you dug a little further you would have found out that oil use in the U.S. has been down 4% over that last 12 months, and worldwide it has been flat to down 1%. Now my friend all you have to do is connect the dots, you have a commodity that at best has had a flat usage demand over the last 12 months and yet the price has more than doubled during that same timeframe. You don't need to be a Milton Friedman or a John Maynard Keyenes to figure this one out, oil has replaced gold as an inflation hedge and when that hedge comes off the price of oil will tumble, the price of gold will crash, and barring an Obama victory the dollar will strengthen qiute markedly. Please feel free to continue posting about the books you are reading and how they are telling you that oil is going to $200/bbl ect. ect., but when the oil market does break down and the speculators are in a panic to sell off their positions, remember this post of mine

[dotcom]

...Generally speaking a house that sells off the plan say 2.5 million baht can be resold for about 1.8m-2million baht a few years later.Farangs be warned!

Do you have any data to support this statement? I am highly skeptical but very interested to what degree, if any, it is true.

back in 1998, I had this friend who lived at the park beach condo complex off naklua 16 in pattaya. he asked me to check out some of the prices at the time. not knowing the real estate market, I was curious to see what was offered. get this, there was this one 3 bedroom 400 sqm. condo selling for 1.8 million baht at the time. word was the 1997 crash was so devastating for many thais, they were desperate to sell off assets to pay off debts. will it happen again? who knows.. the scenario is a little different now.

going back to the 1.8 million baht 400 sqm. condo... it was absolutely immaculate. but because I was a rookie at the time, I didn't buy the place. ugh! ..in 2001, I went back to look at the condos there because a friend of mine was interested in buying a place in pattaya. I didn't see a 400 sqm. unit for sale. but one of the 255 sqm. units was asking 15 million baht.

talk about lost opportunities... live and learn.

could it happen again? who knows?.... only the shadow knows....

A trip to the land office in 1998 would have been useful. To see what their appraised value of the 400 M2 condo was.

I suspect that was a once in a lifetime buying opp.

Personally I wouldn't like to pay the electricity bill to cool such a place. btw @ around 11 sqft per M2 - that 400 M2 condo (4400 sqft) is bigger than the median American HOUSE.

[thaigene2]

Johnpa, I am glad to hear that you are not one of those bitter expats that I so frequently run into here on TV, as far as the high mucky muck from Exxon is concerned, what would you expect him to say, that oil should be at $45-$50/bbl? (of course not). The boys at Exxon are loving this bubble as they are setting new net profit records each and every quarter. Here's a free tip, don't put too much faith into what the talking heads are saying on CNBC or Bloomberg as they are generally talking up their book just as the Exxon executive was doing. If you took a few minutes and did some DD of your own you would have found out that a year ago the price of oil was in the $65-$70/bbl range (and even at that level there was a $15 or so of speculation priced in), then if you dug a little further you would have found out that oil use in the U.S. has been down 4% over that last 12 months, and worldwide it has been flat to down 1%. Now my friend all you have to do is connect the dots, you have a commodity that at best has had a flat usage demand over the last 12 months and yet the price has more than doubled during that same timeframe. You don't need to be a Milton Friedman or a John Maynard Keyenes to figure this one out, oil has replaced gold as an inflation hedge and when that hedge comes off the price of oil will tumble, the price of gold will crash, and barring an Obama victory the dollar will strengthen qiute markedly. Please feel free to continue posting about the books you are reading and how they are telling you that oil is going to $200/bbl ect. ect., but when the oil market does break down and the speculators are in a panic to sell off their positions, remember this post of mine

I think you're right that the bubble will burst and prices will tumble faster than they rose. However, don't read too much into the flat demand in the U.S. The bubble and speculation has formed because of rising demand in the East and South Asia - not because of the US - rather in spite of it.

But it's funny how there's always an 'oil' crisis whenever a Texas Bush is in office though, huh? Mayhem in Iraq, Kuwait, always good for the US oil companies..

On the other hand, southern Alberta is awash in cash from this because the US oil companies there are taxed and the money used for the province and its people. Around the first 'crisis' in Gulf War One, the province paid off its debt. It is the only state/province in N America (best of my knowledge) that is 'debt-free' - ("debt" free - not just deficit free). And they have universal health care (like the rest of Canada) and good state schools - also free. The kicker is that the province has been run by right-of-center politicians for decades..not "loony-lefties"..

[VegasVic]

Johnpa, I am glad to hear that you are not one of those bitter expats that I so frequently run into here on TV, as far as the high mucky muck from Exxon is concerned, what would you expect him to say, that oil should be at $45-$50/bbl? (of course not). The boys at Exxon are loving this bubble as they are setting new net profit records each and every quarter. Here's a free tip, don't put too much faith into what the talking heads are saying on CNBC or Bloomberg as they are generally talking up their book just as the Exxon executive was doing. If you took a few minutes and did some DD of your own you would have found out that a year ago the price of oil was in the $65-$70/bbl range (and even at that level there was a $15 or so of speculation priced in), then if you dug a little further you would have found out that oil use in the U.S. has been down 4% over that last 12 months, and worldwide it has been flat to down 1%. Now my friend all you have to do is connect the dots, you have a commodity that at best has had a flat usage demand over the last 12 months and yet the price has more than doubled during that same timeframe. You don't need to be a Milton Friedman or a John Maynard Keyenes to figure this one out, oil has replaced gold as an inflation hedge and when that hedge comes off the price of oil will tumble, the price of gold will crash, and barring an Obama victory the dollar will strengthen qiute markedly. Please feel free to continue posting about the books you are reading and how they are telling you that oil is going to $200/bbl ect. ect., but when the oil market does break down and the speculators are in a panic to sell off their positions, remember this post of mine

I think you're right that the bubble will burst and prices will tumble faster than they rose. However, don't read too much into the flat demand in the U.S. The bubble and speculation has formed because of rising demand in the East and South Asia - not because of the US - rather in spite of it.

But it's funny how there's always an 'oil' crisis whenever a Texas Bush is in office though, huh? Mayhem in Iraq, Kuwait, always good for the US oil companies..

On the other hand, southern Alberta is awash in cash from this because the US oil companies there are taxed and the money used for the province and its people. Around the first 'crisis' in Gulf War One, the province paid off its debt. It is the only state/province in N America (best of my knowledge) that is 'debt-free' - ("debt" free - not just deficit free). And they have universal health care (like the rest of Canada) and good state schools - also free. The kicker is that the province has been run by right-of-center politicians for decades..not "loony-lefties"..

Thats good news for those in tar sand country I think that Alaska may also still be debt free, I know that there is no state income tax and that for many years every citizen of Alaska got a check from the state from some of the proceeds from the pipeline. I brought up demand falling in the states only because the U.S. is still the worlds largest consumer of oil, if you noticed I also stated that worldwide demand for oil has also gone flat over the last 12 months. I thought that the "oil crash" might not happen until after labor day, but after a phone call today with someone who should know it looks like the "oil crash" could happen any day I am increasing my oil and gold short position tomorrow morning Its not really that difficult to make some good coin in a recession, you just need to be nimble and patient! By the way I agree with the Bush comment completely, despite being a Republican most of my life I never liked nor trusted either GB1 or GB2, I am waiting patiently for McCains inauguration!

[thaigene2]

Last time I checked Alberta had provincial income tax, but no sales tax.

[midas]

To those that seem so confident that the price oil oil will fall dramatically

soon what about the ever-increasing possibility of a preemptive strike

by Israel against Iran ?

[Tony Clifton]

250$ a barrel at least.

It's not that bad right now when compared to :

Lipton Iced Tea 16 oz $1.19 ..........$9.52 (gallon)

Gatorade 20 oz $1.59 .... $10.17 (gallon)

Ocean Spray 16 oz $1.25 ......... $10.00 ( gallon)

Vick's Nyquil 6 oz $8.35 ... $178.13(gallon)

Pepto Bismol 4 oz $3.85 .. $123.20 (gallon)

Scope 1.5 oz $0.99 ....$84.48 (gallon)

Evian Water 9 oz $1.49 $21.49 a gallon !

Trying to sell our house, 100% failure rate so far, all who visited were turned down by the banks.

Edited June 17, 2008 by Tony Clifton

[cclub75]

Trying to sell our house, 100% failure rate so far, all who visited were turned down by the banks.

Speaking about loans, this chart is troubling.

Why the total (oustanding) credit by commercial banks explodes litteraly since february ?

What's going on ?

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/06/17...-and-of-growth/

On one hand we have an explosion of loans (in volume), but people on the ground who are turned down by banks, and banks themselves who are increasing their lending rates (beginning of june)... It's like credit is tightening... but meanwhile like a bubble.

Something is wrong. Something is missing.

[TAWP]

By the way I agree with the Bush comment completely, despite being a Republican most of my life I never liked nor trusted either GB1 or GB2, I am waiting patiently for McCains inauguration!

That's because they aren't true Republicans.

[midas]

Trying to sell our house, 100% failure rate so far, all who visited were turned down by the banks.

Speaking about loans, this chart is troubling.

Why the total (oustanding) credit by commercial banks explodes litteraly since february ?

What's going on ?

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/06/17...-and-of-growth/

On one hand we have an explosion of loans (in volume), but people on the ground who are turned down by banks, and banks themselves who are increasing their lending rates (beginning of june)... It's like credit is tightening... but meanwhile like a bubble.

Something is wrong. Something is missing.

Incredible ! The outlook for Thailand doesnt look rosy

[thaigene2]

To those that seem so confident that the price oil oil will fall dramatically

soon what about the ever-increasing possibility of a preemptive strike

by Israel against Iran ?

I think you raise a good point. Is Iranian oil purchased by the US or Europe? (not that it wouldn't have an impact - I agree- I ask because I don't know).

[thaigene2]

250$ a barrel at least.

It's not that bad right now when compared to :

Lipton Iced Tea 16 oz $1.19 ..........$9.52 (gallon)

Gatorade 20 oz $1.59 .... $10.17 (gallon)

Ocean Spray 16 oz $1.25 ......... $10.00 ( gallon)

Vick's Nyquil 6 oz $8.35 ... $178.13(gallon)

Pepto Bismol 4 oz $3.85 .. $123.20 (gallon)

Scope 1.5 oz $0.99 ....$84.48 (gallon)

Evian Water 9 oz $1.49 $21.49 a gallon !

Trying to sell our house, 100% failure rate so far, all who visited were turned down by the banks.

You forgot wine under Thai customs windfalls - average 75cl bottle is around - what - 600 baht? So multiple by 4 for a rough gallon and you get 2,400 Baht per gallon or 96,000 Baht per 40 gallon barrel (is that right, 40 gallon drums?). So at 32 baht to the USD that's 3,000 DOLLARS PER BARREL.

Hmm..know what I'd rather have.

[thaigene2]

Trying to sell our house, 100% failure rate so far, all who visited were turned down by the banks.

Speaking about loans, this chart is troubling.

Why the total (oustanding) credit by commercial banks explodes litteraly since february ?

What's going on ?

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/06/17...-and-of-growth/

On one hand we have an explosion of loans (in volume), but people on the ground who are turned down by banks, and banks themselves who are increasing their lending rates (beginning of june)... It's like credit is tightening... but meanwhile like a bubble.

Something is wrong. Something is missing.

Yeah, well it's the question I keep asking right? How many thai-chinese well healed 'kids' out there (ok 30ish) are buying places on credit to "rent" to farangs at inflated prices - then learning there aren't that many farangs to rent to?? (perhaps they missed their homework on business plans apparently en route to their paid-for MBAs?) versus how many are using credfit to traditionally buy-to-live-in? (different story of course - as long as they keep their jobs - they'll struggle but get by).

Do you think this is the beginning of the answer?

[midas]

To those that seem so confident that the price oil oil will fall dramatically

soon what about the ever-increasing possibility of a preemptive strike

by Israel against Iran ?

I think you raise a good point. Is Iranian oil purchased by the US or Europe? (not that it wouldn't have an impact - I agree- I ask because I don't know).

thaigene2 I think you missed my point

I am referring to whether " Iranian oil purchased by the US or Europe " !

I am referring to the total global chaos that I firmly believe will be the

result of this possible and now likely action by Israel......................

No one knows how Iran would react but one thing is for sure -

they wont take it one the chin as the did in Iraq.

And then will really see what high oil prices are like

[steveromagnino]

Yeah, well it's the question I keep asking right? How many thai-chinese well healed 'kids' out there (ok 30ish) are buying places on credit to "rent" to farangs at inflated prices - then learning there aren't that many farangs to rent to?? (perhaps they missed their homework on business plans apparently en route to their paid-for MBAs?) versus how many are using credfit to traditionally buy-to-live-in? (different story of course - as long as they keep their jobs - they'll struggle but get by).

Do you think this is the beginning of the answer?

how many kids are we talking about; large chunks of the housing market has nothing to do with rental to farangs at all

[quiksilva]

A trip to the land office in 1998 would have been useful. To see what their appraised value of the 400 M2 condo was.

I suspect that was a once in a lifetime buying opp.

I remember those times well, there were lots of frustrated vultures circling for non existent bargains, the same happened in Phuket after the Tsunami.

Residential rents and values were stable after 1997. Occupancies were good, but sales were slow. The reason being is because most buyers were bargain hunters thinking there was blood on the streets, but as far as most condo owners were concerned, there wasn't.

The reason being was that there actually an influx of experts being brought in from overseas to help guide Thailand out of the mess it was in plus there were many more US$ housing packages around at the time so many expats were able to move into better quality units.

The commercial market was much harder hit however, which saw office rents drop by 50% to rest just a little higher than the Grade A rents in Malawi.