Where Is The Condominium Market In Thailand Going?

[thaigene2]

The condo market is going to a new direction - and that is fascinating..

The GREAT thing for all is that Sino-Thai "Brats" have been buying not just to let but to LIVE in. A big change that will haunt the Thai establishment for years to come. When the market drops, and the rents remain static (with no one to rent to)...and grand-daddy with the sino-thai face and the silk shirt (who co-signed the loan) has to cough up the cash burried in the garden from his portion of his support for the last coup/public works program, to pay off Junior's stupid purchase - then THERE IS YOUR ANSWER, my friend.

[thaigene2]

if you are so concerned, why not just buy an investment property back home that you can also rent out which can also be banked and used for upkeep/taxes until you give it to your child. if you look and do your research well, there are some great buys in secondary markets - meaning not major cities but still sizeable cities.

Better still - WAIT a year or two - why would ANYONE buy now?

[ChampagneSuper]

Better still - WAIT a year or two - why would ANYONE buy now?

shoot, i been waiting 2 years already because of what people said on here. do i now have to wait another 2 years ??

prices have actually risen in the past 2 years i been waiting, but never mind they just better drop big time in these next 2 to make up for it.

savvy real estate investors, long-term investors by definition, normally wait a year or two to say a few bucks do they ?

jeeez

Edited June 14, 2008 by ChampagneSuper

[Scott123]

The condo market is going to a new direction - and that is fascinating..

The GREAT thing for all is that Sino-Thai "Brats" have been buying not just to let but to LIVE in. A big change that will haunt the Thai establishment for years to come. When the market drops, and the rents remain static (with no one to rent to)...and grand-daddy with the sino-thai face and the silk shirt (who co-signed the loan) has to cough up the cash burried in the garden from his portion of his support for the last coup/public works program, to pay off Junior's stupid purchase - then THERE IS YOUR ANSWER, my friend.

What's your point?

[ray08]

Took your advice pkrv and read through a lot of the old threads (head hurts now), lots of sound advice particlarly from Irene, Quicksilva and the like.

The only nagging doubt that remains is about the condition and value of the asset in 25-30 years time, it is a long term investment and me and missus will hopefully only be interested in the rental income. But we'd like it to be of worth to leave to our son.

Hua Hin market is quiet now compared to the insane boom of recent years, but it's steady and I haven't seen any drop in prices, they're still rising infact for the mid to high quality properties. Houses are the bigger share of the market here, obviously due to land availability and the relatively inexpensive, but ever-rising land prices.

What was consistent reading through the years of old threads was Mr Bing Bong saying the bubble will burst any minute now.

To be fair his 1,568th graphic, the one of the declining cumulative progress 's' curve overlaid on that gantt chart had me a tad concerned

Cheers,

Burgernev

The value can be derived from evidence of what comparable property will be selling for at that time.

Typically property is depreciated over 30 years, however that does not mean that once it is 30 years old it is worth zero. (IF that was the case Buckingham Palace would be worth nothing, which i think you'll agree is inaccurate). What happens at that time is the value is derived based on its effective life. Judgements are made by professionals on the condition of the property.

To compare western properties to Thailand is not practical , forgetting Buckinham Palace ,we all know 2 things.

a ) The west has a very strong secondhand market , eg London

b ) Thailand residential has a very weak secondhand market ,Thais try to avoid , so left to a few westerners to buy

To buy a property here and expect to an asset in 30 years time to leave to next of kin is a big call , without even talking about proper maintenance

the property might not be worth Zero but i think compared to the general market in 30 years you might be leaving a very undesirable

property.

Compare this to a central london property in kensington, where i think your next of kin would be very happy in 30 years if left a property.

I would be very supprised if someone would recomend a long term 25-30 residential property here as good investement to leave to the next generation.

Actually its very practical and works very well indeed. It is used here all the time. In fact we have sold properties in Bangkok that were over 30 years old but have been maintained superbly and thus was able to successfully command a very respectable price (several million US$) in the open market.

On the other hand we have another substantial property on our books, which used to belong to ... ehem.. very senior people in Thai society... it can only be adequately described as a mansion / palace. Sadly it has been neglected and the property is on the market, with the owner's blessing, at land value only, despite that fact that it has both considerable historic and architectural value.

Edit to keep this on topic: So as I said it depends on the condition of the property, which of course is dependant upon a good standard of pro active maintenance throughout its life. The same applies to all properties, however the larger they are the harder they are to maintain (M&E systems are more complex) and the more that has to be spent on their upkeep.

Quicksilver ,i agree with a lot of things you say on these threads being in the industry , but to compare the second hand Residential Thai Market to the western Market is a big call.

You might have isolated sales that may show a good return , but in general terms it would take a brave person to take a long term positon of 25-30 years on Thai property and expect a good return ,knowing unless there is a culture change , the secondhand market is not the flavour of the day, and thats without taking into account construction quality and maintenance over such a long time

Thai residential market is what it is ,but for sure it does not work on western pricipals IMHO.

Back to the question of where is the condo market is going ? In Sydney every Sunday i think in the Telegrath ,they show all sales for the week ,with price and auction clearance rates, also on internet , a very transparent market and the average punter can make a eductated guess on the values and state of the market ,Here i cannot find such information , in fact all i can find is asking prices on property ,

So Where is the Condo Market Going ? ,

Answer : Whatever the asking price ,

[samran]

The condo market is going to a new direction - and that is fascinating..

The GREAT thing for all is that Sino-Thai "Brats" have been buying not just to let but to LIVE in. A big change that will haunt the Thai establishment for years to come. When the market drops, and the rents remain static (with no one to rent to)...and grand-daddy with the sino-thai face and the silk shirt (who co-signed the loan) has to cough up the cash burried in the garden from his portion of his support for the last coup/public works program, to pay off Junior's stupid purchase - then THERE IS YOUR ANSWER, my friend.

the brat would have purchased in cash.

[thaigene2]

The condo market is going to a new direction - and that is fascinating..

The GREAT thing for all is that Sino-Thai "Brats" have been buying not just to let but to LIVE in. A big change that will haunt the Thai establishment for years to come. When the market drops, and the rents remain static (with no one to rent to)...and grand-daddy with the sino-thai face and the silk shirt (who co-signed the loan) has to cough up the cash burried in the garden from his portion of his support for the last coup/public works program, to pay off Junior's stupid purchase - then THERE IS YOUR ANSWER, my friend.

What's your point?

If they bought through credit to rent out then the whole traditional Thai paradigm of 'prices never drop' will change. If they purchased with cash then it's an investment that just sits there but no big deal.

PKRV's Hampstead maissonette will, like all properties in London, also be affected by the UK property downturn.

My main point is that when you itnroduce a lot of Thais into the condo market ON CREDIT as I believe has been happening for the last 2-3 years as speculators, and they run out of renters or property prices soften in general, then the overall direction will be down - not sideways like last time.

[nihilnisibene]

by the way - houses - if you have ever owned one you would know - depending on the climate - require an awful lot of maintenance. maybe not in australia, but with extreme climates of seasons - here in LOS from the scorching heat to the monsoon rains etc. will take their toll. add up all the costs over the years and see where you stand. look at most of the larger older homes in the city - they look run down even though they have staff taking of them. perhaps it is a thai thing in not spending too much money maintaining them.

This post has been edited by shochu: Yesterday, 2008-06-14 20:33:22

-------------

Another negative factor is the snow in Thailand. Snow without interruption from November till March. Snow hurts the roofs.

[quiksilva]

Took your advice pkrv and read through a lot of the old threads (head hurts now), lots of sound advice particlarly from Irene, Quicksilva and the like.

The only nagging doubt that remains is about the condition and value of the asset in 25-30 years time, it is a long term investment and me and missus will hopefully only be interested in the rental income. But we'd like it to be of worth to leave to our son.

Hua Hin market is quiet now compared to the insane boom of recent years, but it's steady and I haven't seen any drop in prices, they're still rising infact for the mid to high quality properties. Houses are the bigger share of the market here, obviously due to land availability and the relatively inexpensive, but ever-rising land prices.

What was consistent reading through the years of old threads was Mr Bing Bong saying the bubble will burst any minute now.

To be fair his 1,568th graphic, the one of the declining cumulative progress 's' curve overlaid on that gantt chart had me a tad concerned

Cheers,

Burgernev

The value can be derived from evidence of what comparable property will be selling for at that time.

Typically property is depreciated over 30 years, however that does not mean that once it is 30 years old it is worth zero. (IF that was the case Buckingham Palace would be worth nothing, which i think you'll agree is inaccurate). What happens at that time is the value is derived based on its effective life. Judgements are made by professionals on the condition of the property.

To compare western properties to Thailand is not practical , forgetting Buckinham Palace ,we all know 2 things.

a ) The west has a very strong secondhand market , eg London

b ) Thailand residential has a very weak secondhand market ,Thais try to avoid , so left to a few westerners to buy

To buy a property here and expect to an asset in 30 years time to leave to next of kin is a big call , without even talking about proper maintenance

the property might not be worth Zero but i think compared to the general market in 30 years you might be leaving a very undesirable

property.

Compare this to a central london property in kensington, where i think your next of kin would be very happy in 30 years if left a property.

I would be very supprised if someone would recomend a long term 25-30 residential property here as good investement to leave to the next generation.

Actually its very practical and works very well indeed. It is used here all the time. In fact we have sold properties in Bangkok that were over 30 years old but have been maintained superbly and thus was able to successfully command a very respectable price (several million US$) in the open market.

On the other hand we have another substantial property on our books, which used to belong to ... ehem.. very senior people in Thai society... it can only be adequately described as a mansion / palace. Sadly it has been neglected and the property is on the market, with the owner's blessing, at land value only, despite that fact that it has both considerable historic and architectural value.

Edit to keep this on topic: So as I said it depends on the condition of the property, which of course is dependant upon a good standard of pro active maintenance throughout its life. The same applies to all properties, however the larger they are the harder they are to maintain (M&E systems are more complex) and the more that has to be spent on their upkeep.

Quicksilver ,i agree with a lot of things you say on these threads being in the industry , but to compare the second hand Residential Thai Market to the western Market is a big call.

You might have isolated sales that may show a good return , but in general terms it would take a brave person to take a long term positon of 25-30 years on Thai property and expect a good return ,knowing unless there is a culture change , the secondhand market is not the flavour of the day, and thats without taking into account construction quality and maintenance over such a long time

Thai residential market is what it is ,but for sure it does not work on western pricipals IMHO.

Hi Ray, thanks for that. I also rate your posts highly. I wasn't specifically talking about residential sector. You are right the secondhand market in residential is pretty poor, but there are exceptions to every rule. Its a big market.

I was talking about the valuation method of properties that have reached the end of their "lifespan" which usually means 30 years. This applies to all property regardless of type, and as a valuation method works just as well in Thailand as it does abroad.

I should probably add that you should not rely on any single method of valuation to determine value, to be sure you should also factor in comparable evidence, and look at residual valuations (if it has development potential), and income approach (if it has / can generate a good ROI) depending upon the property.

Shochu, the Thai mansion I refer to has 6 rai on the river, if anyone is truly interested they can contact me IRL (contact details via PM), but I prefer not to disclose details here.

I agree on the maintenance matter, generally houses are maintained very poorly. It really doesn't cost much but it seems that Thais are willing to splurge on expensive vast renovations when they buy new but will not spend on annual maintenance. If you ask me I think this is why there is no secondhand market. Its a catch 22. Why bother to maintain when noone will buy secondhand, and and why buy secondhand when residential properties are so poorly maintained. (well that and ghosts anyway).

[pkrv]

Life span of Condominiums was covered by some interesting posts on the thread below:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...amp;pid=1424687

One that stood out was:

"One of my worries (and I have many) is the expected building life span of some of these Condos"

Do you know of any Bangkok condo buildings that had to be "scrapped" because of poor construction? Neither do I. Since you won't be retiring for another 15 years, perhaps you should worry about something else.

This brings up a question I asked in another thread and didn't get a thorough answer.

How many concrete and steel buildings were built more than 30 years ago? Irene asserts that Tai Ping Towers at Ekamai Road was the first condo in Bangkok and it is not yet 30 years old. Does anyone have any other examples of old concrete and steel buildings in Thailand?

Go to Chinatown, there are so many buildings built before the Second World War or go Rajdumnern Avenue, they were all built pre-War. One building with nine floors is still standing in Chinatown though somewhat dilapidated.

Perhaps Tai Ping Towers at Ekamai Road is an example to look at? Don't forget that it is down to the owners if they wish to pull down and sell or re-invest. I suspect it is simply a business decision.

The center of Bangkok is high rise, houses are few and far between - I can see the market starting to move towards a Hong Kong model where the second hand Condominium market starts to take off in Bangkok. But thats just an opinion. IMO houses in Thailand are a very different kettle of fish!

quiksilva: 6 rai of land on the river - that is BIG (The Park is in 5.5 rai) - That has now got to be a prospective site for a condominium.

[shochu]

i don't think there is a worry about an old concrete building falling down. I was also a part of that conversation or one similar to it. concrete if done properly gets harder with age and i guess stronger - (but is that better - because it also means more rigid). but it is a question of do you want to live in a building with persisitent mold, made worse due to cracks which would ...(if not maintained properly)

yes there are many old concrete buildings in china town. but the question is - would/do you want to live in one. some can be done up nicely. but in this discussion - i suppose we are talking about a condo - one 30 years or older - and imagine what would happen if it was not maintained well - just look at some of the buildings along the BTS as one example. add to this the many residents who might abuse the drains and the building systems and imagine what you would do if all the drains didn't drain properly and when one person plugged up their toilet and tried to plunge it, it washing up into yours and many other possibilites. these are all problems of the past - hopefully. newer buildings now should have 4"drainage pipes and also incorporate systems where repairs do not require drastic measures.

just do your research.

is it a good time to buy?

well there are always two sides to an argument. you could wait as the market is cooling and some places should be dropping prices.

or

you could buy now because just maybe it is better to have a place that might lose some value as opposed to a currency that will lose more value.

only tiem will tell which one was the better.

in the end it is up to you. i'm only offering you the info that i have. i chose to buy again only because i would rather not have too much cash at this particular moment, as I am more interested in having something of value. but this suits me - it may not suit you - so do what suits you best.

[BlackRain]

I believe the time for rising price in the Thai property market will soon come to an end,

Only Pattaya seems to escape the reality as 80% of buyers are Russians who have been out priced in their home country (20,000 USD per sqm in Moscow),

With high inflation, lower growth, and Thai banks amassing a string of bad loans, I don't see what else could fuel such a market,

it's going to stop and when it does, it will be brutal. It doesn't mean that prices will fall overnight though, and they are still a lot of projects in early stage, but with oversupply and no demand, someone will have to make fire sales to cover those constructions costs,

[pkrv]

shochu - Interesting - Yes exchange rates are critical to the equation. I note for the UK they are again improving up to around 65 from a low of 62 (ish) now. More tricky on an off the plan development my GBPTHB= rates went (downwards) from 75 to about 67.8 over the payment schedule.

I suppose it is horses for courses. A new reader to the thread would wonder why we would be discussing such a diversity of stock. Let us face it you can buy anything from dross (complete with multi coloured mould!) to ultra luxury. But again I think Ferang’s tend to buy in a subset of the condominium stock (certainly the Japanese).

I guess it is about personal decisions. For me money built up but interest rates in the UK hit me at 40% tax - you are forced to do something with the cash. Personal choice was to invest, but not with an expectation of return, but for my personal happiness and for the future (retirement). Oddly when people do that the returns seem to follow. As I say I am seeing a 60% increase in value from 2005 prices. But simultaneously we are seeing properties on the market for years. But if as some say they were bought for 2m THB, it could just have been to park some spare money? If the sale comes off then great! Something will have to give at some point, but even if it is torn down the 'give' will still yield the %value of the land as a final 'reward', it will just take time.

[quiksilva]

quiksilva: 6 rai of land on the river - that is BIG (The Park is in 5.5 rai) - That has now got to be a prospective site for a condominium.

Yes professionally I agree that would be the highest and best use, however it would be a tragedy to see yet another beautiful old building demolished. Thailand really needs a better historical preservation order system. (It is possible but its difficult) But thats another topic entirely.

Edited June 18, 2008 by quiksilva

[trajan]

quiksilva: 6 rai of land on the river - that is BIG (The Park is in 5.5 rai) - That has now got to be a prospective site for a condominium.

Yes professionally I agree that would be the highest and best use, however it would be a tragedy to see yet another beautiful old building demolished. Thailand really needs a better historical preservation order system. (It is possible but its difficult) But thats another topic entirely.

Yes, I couldnt agree more....I wish the Fine Arts Department was more aggressive in protecting heritage sites..... luckily they protected Lord Sathorn's Mansion (more recently the old Russian Embassy) at the corner of Sathorn Road and New Sathorn Rd (Chongnonsee)..... it will be restored, preserved and serve as the centerpiece (spa?, cafe?, lounge? museum?) of the new "W Hotel" and Sathorn Square office buildings and retail arcades coming up..... [if they didnt protect it, Im sure it would just be demolished and the "highest and best commerical use" super high density glass box would rise up in its place]....

also, I hope that wonderful ole' Customs House on 5 rai on the east bank (nearside) of the river (previously reported to be gentrified into a ultra-lux Aman Resort) will be spruced up soon? ??

[reported way back in 2005...Source: Bangkokpost : May 11, 2005]

Aman Resorts to build ultra luxurious hotel in Bangkok

Natural Park group closes deal for six-star riverside hotel

KRISSANA PARNSOON

Amid doubts over its finances, Natural Park Plc has closed a deal with the Treasury Department to develop a six-star hotel on a prime plot on the east bank of the Chao Phraya River, which now houses the 115-year-old Customs House.

The consortium of N-Park, Amanresorts Services and Silverlink Holdings Limited yesterday signed a 30-year agreement to develop and manage the boutique hotel on a five-rai plot on Charoen Krung Road for 30 years.

The group paid a total of 128.3 million baht in cash to the department, of which 125 million baht was a front-end fee and 3.3 million baht the first-year rent. It also placed a letter of guarantee worth 43.58 million baht as collateral. The department will receive a total of 1.47 billion baht from the concession.

Sermsin Samalapa, the president and chief executive of N-Park, said this was the first step to show that the consortium was seriously committed to the hotel development. The three parties helped contribute the guaranteed money.

``Many banks are showing interests to provide us a syndicated loan to finance the hotel development. We are in talks with them, negotiating for the best repayment terms and interest rates,'' he claimed.

However, the shareholding structure of the group has not been concluded yet.

Mr Sermsin said N-Park would decide whether it would sell an 18.75% stake in Finansa Plc to raise more funds over the next two weeks.

Treasury Department chief Wisudhi Srisuphan said he was not worried about N-Park's cash-flow problems. In the worst case, the department already had a lot of cash and collateral from the consortium.

The N-Park-Amanresorts consortium will spend 152.8 million baht to move and provide new accommodation for officials who now stay on the Treasury Department's land.

Called the Aman Resort Bangkok, the development will cost one billion baht including the preservation of three heritage buildings, construction of a four-storey hotel building and a five-storey back-office building, and new accommodation for officials.

The luxury hotel with only 33 rooms is expected to open around the end of 2007. Applying for permission from related government agencies will take about six months and construction two years.

The average room rate will be about $800 per night and the project will break even in 10 years. Revenues from hotel rooms are projected at 220 million baht in the first year and 260 million baht in the second year.

Greg Sirois, executive director of Amanresorts, said participating in the Aman Resort Bangkok project would complete the investment picture for the group.

``We can't miss Bangkok because it's one of the great leisure destinations. We believe we can bring our customers, who are jet-setters, Hollywood stars, sports icons or business billionaires, to try new experiences at Aman Resort Bangkok,'' he said.

N-Park shares closed yesterday on the Stock Exchange of Thailand at one baht, down seven satang, in trade worth 254 million baht.

[pkrv]

I actually think that preservation of heritage sites to be paramount to condominium developments. There was a great thread on this called - Land/House on the River

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/lofiversion/...hp/t117809.html

IMO there can be nothing more bleak on the landscape than unrelenting condominium construction. How is The Customs House going? I don't actually think this is a side track - I think this is essential to understanding where we are going. IMO condominiums cannot exist without a 'cultural setting', parks etc.

Hong Kong has Victoria Park and Bangkok (with much more space) Lumpini Park, plus a park/garden that keeps registering with me, but I keep forgetting about. A cyclist mentioned it once.

And BTW Trajan I look forward to going to the new arts center (if I get time this next trip!) - Thanks for the heads up some time ago!

[kanderson]

I can only speak from my perspective - High End CBD is going up

I lived in Bangkok over one year (same boring stuff). After looking and thinking about it for several years - I bought a 38 Square Meter Condo at Jomtien. After renting and looking around - View Talay 1 was really fun - and not expensive. Close to the beach - so much - everything.

I rented for about 2 months - and lived around there several trips. I'm also married - and grandma not far away - so Wife happy too.

With the huge swimming pool and so much day time activity - View Talay 1 is my favorite spot.

I'd say buy at 33 - the dollar will not recover for along time. I think it's a dip - go for it.

[think_too_mut]

One thing that may contribute to the original question - where is the Thai condo market going.

The condo we bought (deposit paid) was due for completion in January 2009.

The Sales office said it would be earlier, probably end of August. The girls there would not say anything that we may take as developer's commitment but my guess was that they brought extra workforce and resources that got idle after other developments completed and had no other palece to be assigned to.

Back in late April, the building had aircons either already mounted or wrapped in boxes sitting and waiting on all of the balconies.

One thing I was not expecting - the developer sent us a "progress report" letter last Friday with pictures of the building, park and pool area. Now, there is grass, trees, whole landscaping done, pool ready for water. Still some disturbed earth around, that's OK they are not saying the building is finished yet.

To our delight, they even sent us a picture of a condo inside and it looks like 100% done. I saw it over the webcam, not sure if it was our very condo. Corridors shiny clean.

They also stated that full contract and completion will now be end of July (it's even 1 month earlier than 5 months ahead that August was).

Is there anything unusual about that?

Or may they be pushing to get the money earlier, based on 99% completioin but still not possible to move in and then drag their feet?

It's a medium quality place, along the Sukhumvit it could have been 6-7 mil, in Bang Na it's 2.6 mil.

Or could it be that the developer is trying to disperse fears (hundreds of condos from the same development under deposit are already on "sale" on the Internet)?

Does the public fret the buildings may go belly up even at this stage of completeness?

Whatever, 120K deposit loss would not be hard to walk away from, just the circumstances - the way the developer comminicates and assures us feels a bit too nice.

Edited June 22, 2008 by think_too_mut

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Think-too-mut

My guess would be there seems to be a surplus of workers around right now and the building material is going up at a pretty good clip. So looking ahead he may have decided take advantage of the extra workers and get the job done so he can collect the rest of his money.

Many of them go on the market as soon as they are completed because they were bought by speculators who add a percentage and unload as soon as it is practical. I think that is pretty common.

If the quality of the work is good, consider yourself lucky for getting it done early. Late seem to be the most common with developers.

Good luck, hope it turns out well for you.

[think_too_mut]

My guess would be there seems to be a surplus of workers around right now and the building material is going up at a pretty good clip. So looking ahead he may have decided take advantage of the extra workers and get the job done so he can collect the rest of his money.

Many of them go on the market as soon as they are completed because they were bought by speculators who add a percentage and unload as soon as it is practical. I think that is pretty common.

Thanks, that seconded my feeling that extra resourses might have been brought in.

The property is Parkland Srinakarin

The condo is to sit dormant and be used 2-3 months a year when school in Japan is closed, not for rent, not for financial gain, not for resale, no expectations it may be worth more or anything one day. Also a fallback in case of job loss and a backup for family to own and live in/rent it if worse comes to worse.

Other logic behid the purchase was:

- to have own base in Thailand

- right side of the airport, Seacon Square, Bang Na Central, hospitals, Patana intnl. school if needed

- near Siam Water Park, the place we use evey day we can

- no more hours in traffic jams in BKK

- near the highway to eastern seabord places and towards Sa Kaew where hometown is

- similar kind of non-home comfort (probably poorer and considerably smaller ) would be at least 100$ per day. Only that would pay it off over 8 years or so.

OMG, google serach shows they are almost all for re-sale now by speculators...100s, maybe over 1000 condos in the complex.

[pkrv]

Hi think_too_mut - you took me a bit by surprise! I didn't realise you too had bought a condominium off the plan. I tend to agree with BEENTHEREDONETHAT (whose posts actually always seem to be level headed and down to earth, with sensible advice/thoughts).

Don't forget the developer is obviously dealing with Ferangs who in many cases are overseas based. Photos and a good communication strategy are ESSENTIAL believe you me!

It looks like the building complex is approaching completion, please don't be surprised to find overruns at the last moment we have seen these at The Trendy, The Park, The Athenee and the Manhattan. But key is that contracts are in place with all purchasers to commit to final payment. I doubt very much if flippers would be willing to walk away from their deposits. Everyone gravitates to what they can reasonably afford.

What you say is true however. Yes the final payment is crunch time. You seem to have made all the decisions for the 'correct' personal reasons (I believe you travel to Japan a lot). The area/project you mention is outside of my knowledge but then this is what this is all about! We pool information here to assist everyone. It is however a good website detailing local facilities for Ferangs. The project was obviously targeted at Ferangs in the first place. Do you know the uptake? Somehow I don’t think the Ferangs will walk away.

[think_too_mut]

Hi think_too_mut - you took me a bit by surprise! I didn't realise you too had bought a condominium off the plan. I tend to agree with BEENTHEREDONETHAT (whose posts actually always seem to be level headed and down to earth, with sensible advice/thoughts).

Don't forget the developer is obviously dealing with Ferangs who in many cases are overseas based. Photos and a good communication strategy are ESSENTIAL believe you me!

It looks like the building complex is approaching completion, please don't be surprised to find overruns at the last moment we have seen these at The Trendy, The Park, The Athenee and the Manhattan. But key is that contracts are in place with all purchasers to commit to final payment. I doubt very much if flippers would be willing to walk away from their deposits. Everyone gravitates to what they can reasonably afford.

What you say is true however. Yes the final payment is crunch time. You seem to have made all the decisions for the 'correct' personal reasons (I believe you travel to Japan a lot). The area/project you mention is outside of my knowledge but then this is what this is all about! We pool information here to assist everyone. It is however a good website detailing local facilities for Ferangs. The project was obviously targeted at Ferangs in the first place. Do you know the uptake? Somehow I don’t think the Ferangs will walk away.

Bought it just last month when we finally decided to move to Japan. Visas (dependant visa for legally married and our natural child) are in process.

Went to the condo sales office 3 times for 1-2 hours. The sales and showroom had people but no farangs. Thai couples in their 30s with or without their parents were the clienetele I saw.

There are some "premium" units and 1 farang bought 6 of them (could be all of them), obviously for re-sale. I saw them somewhere on the net. Could be that farangs were among the early birds and got what was most attractive.

There were still unsold units, many of them, probably 200+, on the outer side of the buildings (as mine). Sales lady gave me probably 10 floor options where 2 BR units were next to 1BR or studios, obviously hinting I could buy 2 condos and link them if i wished to have a 3 BR 3bath 120sqm unit with 2 entrances.

All condos (probably 6-700 of them) overlooking the pool were sold out.

The price range and the location are rather for Thais. 1300 units hitting the market at once would be a shock for the area.

The situation is quite different to Trendy delays - that kept delaying and delaying.

This development is 5 months ahead of schedule, now final contract and payment are 6 months earlier - end of July 2008 instead of January 2009.

Edited June 22, 2008 by think_too_mut

[pkrv]

Hi think_too_mut - you took me a bit by surprise! I didn't realise you too had bought a condominium off the plan. I tend to agree with BEENTHEREDONETHAT (whose posts actually always seem to be level headed and down to earth, with sensible advice/thoughts).

Don't forget the developer is obviously dealing with Ferangs who in many cases are overseas based. Photos and a good communication strategy are ESSENTIAL believe you me!

It looks like the building complex is approaching completion, please don't be surprised to find overruns at the last moment we have seen these at The Trendy, The Park, The Athenee and the Manhattan. But key is that contracts are in place with all purchasers to commit to final payment. I doubt very much if flippers would be willing to walk away from their deposits. Everyone gravitates to what they can reasonably afford.

What you say is true however. Yes the final payment is crunch time. You seem to have made all the decisions for the 'correct' personal reasons (I believe you travel to Japan a lot). The area/project you mention is outside of my knowledge but then this is what this is all about! We pool information here to assist everyone. It is however a good website detailing local facilities for Ferangs. The project was obviously targeted at Ferangs in the first place. Do you know the uptake? Somehow I don't think the Ferangs will walk away.

Bought it just last month when we finally decided to move to Japan. Visas (dependant visa for legally married and our natural child) are in process.

Went to the condo sales office 3 times for 1-2 hours. The sales and showroom had people but no farangs. Thai couples in their 30s with or without their parents were the clienetele I saw.

There are some "premium" units and 1 farang bought 6 of them (could be all of them), obviously for re-sale. I saw them somewhere on the net. Could be that farangs were among the early birds and got what was most attractive.

There were still unsold units, many of them, probably 200+, on the outer side of the buildings (as mine). Sales lady gave me probably 10 floor options where 2 BR units were next to 1BR or studios, obviously hinting I could buy 2 condos and link them if i wished to have a 3 BR 3bath 120sqm unit with 2 entrances.

All condos (probably 6-700 of them) overlooking the pool were sold out.

The price range and the location are rather for Thais. 1300 units hitting the market at once would be a shock for the area.

The situation is quite different to Trendy delays - that kept delaying and delaying.

This development is 5 months ahead of schedule, now final contract and payment are 6 months earlier - end of July 2008 instead of January 2009.

Amazing Japan - I have looked at this a feat in itself!! Much like all of us you are sort of on your own (ish) please tell us how it goes! I agree BTW that a delay helps with finance you just have longer to pay!

Edited June 23, 2008 by pkrv

[imaneggspurt]

Took your advice pkrv and read through a lot of the old threads (head hurts now), lots of sound advice particlarly from Irene, Quicksilva and the like.

The only nagging doubt that remains is about the condition and value of the asset in 25-30 years time, it is a long term investment and me and missus will hopefully only be interested in the rental income. But we'd like it to be of worth to leave to our son.

Hua Hin market is quiet now compared to the insane boom of recent years, but it's steady and I haven't seen any drop in prices, they're still rising infact for the mid to high quality properties. Houses are the bigger share of the market here, obviously due to land availability and the relatively inexpensive, but ever-rising land prices.

What was consistent reading through the years of old threads was Mr Bing Bong saying the bubble will burst any minute now.

To be fair his 1,568th graphic, the one of the declining cumulative progress 's' curve overlaid on that gantt chart had me a tad concerned

Cheers,

Burgernev

The value can be derived from evidence of what comparable property will be selling for at that time.

Typically property is depreciated over 30 years, however that does not mean that once it is 30 years old it is worth zero. (IF that was the case Buckingham Palace would be worth nothing, which i think you'll agree is inaccurate). What happens at that time is the value is derived based on its effective life. Judgements are made by professionals on the condition of the property.

To compare western properties to Thailand is not practical , forgetting Buckinham Palace ,we all know 2 things.

a ) The west has a very strong secondhand market , eg London

b ) Thailand residential has a very weak secondhand market ,Thais try to avoid , so left to a few westerners to buy

To buy a property here and expect to an asset in 30 years time to leave to next of kin is a big call , without even talking about proper maintenance

the property might not be worth Zero but i think compared to the general market in 30 years you might be leaving a very undesirable

property.

Compare this to a central london property in kensington, where i think your next of kin would be very happy in 30 years if left a property.

I would be very supprised if someone would recomend a long term 25-30 residential property here as good investement to leave to the next generation.

Ithink that after 25 years most thai built properties are on their last legs ( ie, falling down ), you cant say that about a property built in the west,( well in the uk anyway ) so actually look at land speculation,.we just moved out of a 15 year old property and it was looking very secondhand,.we were lucky to get our money back,the people that bought it levelled it and are statrting the cycle again,.investment ?,i dont think so,.. for the normal man in the street to live in yes,.buy,.

[MojoJojo]

a few months ago I posted some stats from The Economist, asked real estate pros on this forum to comment.

It was like:

93 % of properties in the US have seen more than 1 owner

87 % in the UK

13 % in Japan

Nobody came with any data or even a guess about Thai. Even if it is not 13% like in Japan (where houses and buildings are intended to last 30 years due to earthquakes) , must be far less than in the west.

Asians simply hate second-hand real estate, don't know to what extent in Thai but condos sitting for years or decades on the market point to the same pattern. Tens of thousands of them at any given time.

I think that one of the reasons why Asians, particularly Thais, dont like second-hand real estate is because there are just currently better options today that are new and yet not too expensive and still in good locations (near CBD, near BTS/ MRT). But I think 30 years down the road, most of the good locations are already occupied, since there are 30-50 new projects being built every year.

I read from bangkok Post yesterday that condominium market in Thailand started only a couple of decades back, only in the 80's, and that these projects did not have very good building structures (as they were at still at an infancy stage and the deisgns were not as good).

So if i were to buy a condo today, of course I will buy the new ones... better locations, relatively cheap, better construction, etc.

But 30 years from now, the second-hand market may be stronger. As they will most likely be in better locations and comparatively cheaper than new ones (which is not the case yet today).

My guess is that those who bought good location concominiums today, from reliable developers, and with good management companies/ juristic person, will see their investment pay off well in later years as the supply of good locations will be fewer then. The options at that time may be either too expensive, or the locations are not very good.

[think_too_mut]

But I think 30 years down the road, most of the good locations are already occupied, since there are 30-50 new projects being built every year.

In 30 years, there may be computers providing the illusion, structure, electromagnetic floors and moving walls. Not brick and mortar.

[steveromagnino]

Ithink that after 25 years most thai built properties are on their last legs ( ie, falling down ), you cant say that about a property built in the west,( well in the uk anyway ) so actually look at land speculation,.we just moved out of a 15 year old property and it was looking very secondhand,.we were lucky to get our money back,the people that bought it levelled it and are statrting the cycle again,.investment ?,i dont think so,.. for the normal man in the street to live in yes,.buy,.

er... no idea what sort of real estate you buy, but at the upper end e.g. Somkid Gardens that is one of the few buildings that must be even close to 20 years, and it seems fairly pristine.

Methinks you are comparing quality developments in the UK with slummy low end housing in Thailand - the bits of state housing i saw on my one trip to the UK made me think of Klong Toey!

[pkrv]

But I think 30 years down the road, most of the good locations are already occupied, since there are 30-50 new projects being built every year.

In 30 years, there may be computers providing the illusion, structure, electromagnetic floors and moving walls. Not brick and mortar.

think_too_mut: your not mellowing by any chance are you?

It was interesting to note the sheer number of developments on the river, there appears to be a lot going on. But there are other developments too that actually are all IMO really complimentary - Things like new Thai banking practices aimed specifically to assit Ferangs (whilst detering undesirables)

Interesting article in Nation today:

PERSONAL FINANCE

Bank accounts for foreigners

By Ekarin Bumroongpuk

The Nation

Published on June 26, 2008

A look at the qualification criteria at various insititutions and the documents you need

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/06/26...ss_30076519.php

I think Thailand is getting its act together in this whole area, it has infrastructure, the ability to communicate, the best options for the region. One thing that keeps nagging at me is the 49% rule, I think this is now being exploited to Ferangs long term detriment (it differentiates the status of ownership of Thais and ferangs for the same property), but am unsure of Thai long term reaction. (personally I would be pissed off if I owned the same type of unit but it was cheeper because I was a local)

[think_too_mut]

But I think 30 years down the road, most of the good locations are already occupied, since there are 30-50 new projects being built every year.

In 30 years, there may be computers providing the illusion, structure, electromagnetic floors and moving walls. Not brick and mortar.

think_too_mut: your not mellowing by any chance are you?

It was interesting to note the sheer number of developments on the river, there appears to be a lot going on. But there are other developments too that actually are all IMO really complimentary - Things like new Thai banking practices aimed specifically to assit Ferangs (whilst detering undesirables)

Interesting article in Nation today:

PERSONAL FINANCE

Bank accounts for foreigners

By Ekarin Bumroongpuk

The Nation

Published on June 26, 2008

A look at the qualification criteria at various insititutions and the documents you need

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/06/26...ss_30076519.php

I think Thailand is getting its act together in this whole area, it has infrastructure, the ability to communicate, the best options for the region. One thing that keeps nagging at me is the 49% rule, I think this is now being exploited to Ferangs long term detriment (it differentiates the status of ownership of Thais and ferangs for the same property), but am unsure of Thai long term reaction. (personally I would be pissed off if I owned the same type of unit but it was cheeper because I was a local)

pkrv, it is "farang", not "Ferang". In Thai, cassualy, they say "falang".

Been to Thai before? Thai is a nice place, believe me. Come and see for yourself.

[pkrv]

But I think 30 years down the road, most of the good locations are already occupied, since there are 30-50 new projects being built every year.

In 30 years, there may be computers providing the illusion, structure, electromagnetic floors and moving walls. Not brick and mortar.

think_too_mut: your not mellowing by any chance are you?

It was interesting to note the sheer number of developments on the river, there appears to be a lot going on. But there are other developments too that actually are all IMO really complimentary - Things like new Thai banking practices aimed specifically to assit Ferangs (whilst detering undesirables)

Interesting article in Nation today:

PERSONAL FINANCE

Bank accounts for foreigners

By Ekarin Bumroongpuk

The Nation

Published on June 26, 2008

A look at the qualification criteria at various insititutions and the documents you need

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/06/26...ss_30076519.php

I think Thailand is getting its act together in this whole area, it has infrastructure, the ability to communicate, the best options for the region. One thing that keeps nagging at me is the 49% rule, I think this is now being exploited to Ferangs long term detriment (it differentiates the status of ownership of Thais and ferangs for the same property), but am unsure of Thai long term reaction. (personally I would be pissed off if I owned the same type of unit but it was cheeper because I was a local)

pkrv, it is "farang", not "Ferang". In Thai, cassualy, they say "falang".

Been to Thai before? Thai is a nice place, believe me. Come and see for yourself.

Technical term - Bugger - I had thought I had taught my spell checker the correct version - I am slightly dyslexic - I can't see errors on spelling and get numbers mixed up - but yes I own and have been over frequently, next stop in under 4 weeks you will see the photos!

And no you are not mellowing ];-)

Edited June 27, 2008 by pkrv