So: When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

[LaoPo]

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

One doesn't have to possess the brain of Albert Einstein to see the decline in tourism coming.

Some 30+ years ago the long haul holiday destinations started to become popular and Thailand became one of the first countries I visited, outside Europe and the US.

The rising fuel prices (with some airlines more than 60% of the seat price is already 'fuel') will make it virtually impossible for a normal family with 2 kids to travel long haul for a 2-3 week holiday.

For singles and -young- couples it will take a bit longer before they also stop flying long distances for holidays. Expensive airline tickets will make them stop thinking about destinations like Thailand = too expensive. The same for Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Philippines and such.

But also the same for destinations like the USA (from Europe), Caribbean and South America.

Many (smaller) airlines are going bust or went under already; airlines stopped or cut flights already to certain destinations; look at new clippings 'Thai Airways' from today.

I received an email from the Caribbean just now from a company (Paradise Rebates) where dive companies, restaurants, hotels, resorts etc. bundle their efforts to try and comfort their clients with rebates because of increased prices with airlines and increased prices for luggage (divers).

Tourism from ASEAN* and East Asan countries to Thailand declined already in 2007 versus 2006 except from strange figures from Laos and Myanmar which are not really 'tourism' figures. (see: TAT: http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=cre )

* ASEAN/East Asia accounts for more than 55% of total inbound Thailand tourism !

Tourism from Europe = 25.5 % of total still climbed with 11% in 2007 v. 2006 but for how much longer ?

Your comments please.

LaoPo

[cluezo]

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

As soon as the mandatory Chastity Belt Law takes effect.

Edited June 13, 2008 by cluezo

[TEFLMike]

As anyone read the news in the UK? It is like scrolling through a HORROR Movie Credits

As for Thailand, there is no country going to escape from this. What does it boil down? It is usually greed. Greed by whom, is the Big Money Question?

Looking at past posts, of which, there have been numerous, the last few weeks,. The situation suggests that ASEAN, and indeed, Middle Eastern Countries, will have an easier time of it.

[Boater]

there maybe a decline in European tourists, but the Russians, Koreans ect ect are certainly taking there place!

[F1fanatic]

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

As soon as the mandatory Chastity Belt Law takes effect.

[keestha]

Don't forget the old holiday destinations in Europe have become prohibitively expensive. Greece for instance has a higher price level than Germany.

[britmaveric]

Well prob eliminate the Chav masses from coming, everyone else will be fine.

[LaoPo]

there maybe a decline in European tourists, but the Russians, Koreans ect ect are certainly taking there place!

Russians are up but Koreans went down -2.36% (from 1.101.525 to 1.075.516 in 2007 versus 2006); Russians are still a small part of total; just 279.000 in 2007 and that's peanuts in a total of 14,4 million tourists.

Like I said, ASEAN and S Asians are DOWN in 2007.

And, what's more: ASEAN/S Asia + Europe count for more than 80% of Thai tourism; think of that !

LaoPo

[Baa_Mango]

i dont think it will ever stop. the sex is way too cheap to stop all those people from coming here. and if these people go to vn, cambo or laos, its not as easy and they are more uncomfortable.

[LaoPo]

Don't forget the old holiday destinations in Europe have become prohibitively expensive. Greece for instance has a higher price level than Germany.

Yes and that's why masses of tourists go to -still cheap- Turkey. Other destinations like Croatia, Albania and others are waiting. Long Haul destinations will suffer big time; no doubt about it and Thailand's tourism will suffer.

Like Brit says: "everyone else will be fine", but Hotels, bars, restaurants and 100's of thousands of people in the service industry will suffer too...it's a matter of time. The decline will show in the results over 2008, early 2009 with the TAT statistics:

http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=cre

LaoPo

[Huey]

As soon as I vote Republican

[pampal]

not in the near future

[freitag1]

Most tourists are males and they will only stop "coming" when there are no more willing females... poor country...

[Dmitry]

it takes about 10 hours for a Russia --> Thailand flight, thus its already pretty expensive. there is a false economic boom in Russia and many mid-living can affort the trip, but this can change in the near fugure.

[boiledegg]

it takes about 10 hours for a Russia --> Thailand flight, thus its already pretty expensive. there is a false economic boom in Russia and many mid-living can affort the trip, but this can change in the near fugure.

Theyve all the natural resources (metals/oil) in Siberia and India and China have a insatiable appetite for them, i think this booms going to run and run as it is going to in Australia for similar reasons.

The OP has a point about flight prices getting expensive having a detrimental effect on long haul visitors.

I was in a hairdressers yesterday and the lady was saying her sister who is currently holidaying in Majorca thinks its cheaper in England and wont be looking to go abroad for sometime, if the prices of beer/food/hotels rise too much in LOS i think this will have a big impact.

Thailand is more fun then everywhere else so it has that in its favour.

[garro]

I think that tourism in Thailand may change over the next few years, but it will not come to a halt. Perhaps less less riff-raff and more family holidays. Perhaps new riff-raff from countries who haven't in the past produced large amounts of visitors to Thailand. I think increases in aviation fuel will cull a lot of the no-necks.

[boiledegg]

I think that tourism in Thailand may change over the next few years, but it will not come to a halt. Perhaps less less riff-raff and more family holidays. Perhaps new riff-raff from countries who haven't in the past produced large amounts of visitors to Thailand. I think increases in aviation fuel will cull a lot of the no-necks.

You'll have lots of high brow sorts such as yourself to debate why the no-necks shouldnt be allowed to breathe the same air as the educated chattering classes. Should be a hoot doesnt one think.

Single blokes will always have money for holidays, families have other priorities.

[garro]

I think that tourism in Thailand may change over the next few years, but it will not come to a halt. Perhaps less less riff-raff and more family holidays. Perhaps new riff-raff from countries who haven't in the past produced large amounts of visitors to Thailand. I think increases in aviation fuel will cull a lot of the no-necks.

You'll have lots of high brow sorts such as yourself to debate why the no-necks shouldnt be allowed to breathe the same air as the educated chattering classes. Should be a hoot doesnt one think.

Single blokes will always have money for holidays, families have other priorities.

Perhaps academic exams and personality tests should be part of the passport application process

[ignis]

Will airfares keep going up?

We have heard that air travel is changing for the past 3 or so years..

The Airbus 380 uses no more fuel than a normal Jumbo, but carries double the passengers.. I can see in a very short few years the only long haul flights are with airliners that have planes with 400 – 600 seat

Therefore it will be short haul that will look more expensive and with Europe being far more expensive, Asia will look very attractive still..

There again we have heard that places like Thailand are looking for a better/higher class of holiday makers.

Myself have not flown anywhere for the past 5 years and still have many more years of places to go in Thailand, but before retiring here noticed year after year that no matter where you went from in the UK ALL flight were getting fuller, the days have long gone where you could go to Canada, USA, Asia with the plane less than ½ full

[PhilHarries]

Most tourists are males and they will only stop "coming" when there are no more willing females... poor country...

So you've expounded your reason for going to Thailand, do not extrapolate it onto the majority.

Perhaps academic exams and personality tests should be part of the passport application process

Now that would clear the beaches.

Myself have not flown anywhere for the past 5 years and still have many more years of places to go in Thailand, but before retiring here noticed year after year that no matter where you went from in the UK ALL flight were getting fuller, the days have long gone where you could go to Canada, USA, Asia with the plane less than ½ full

Really? That might explain why in May I, like many others on the flights, had a whole row to myself BKK - LHR - BKK. But then I fly direct not using some airline via a six hour stopover at Abu Bin Khazi international airfield latrine.

<edit - sorry forgot to answer the OP's question. The answer is : when hel_l freezes over.>

Edited August 5, 2008 by sbk
racist terms are not acceptable on the forum--sbk

[draggons]

FAmily have already been hit with a 50 quid fuel surcharge for coming out at new year and wouldn't be suprised if they get hit again.

If air fares do keep rising then there may well be a drop off of family holidays to long haul destinations, but as one poster said younger singles, male and female, will always find enough money to travel if they want to. (and the chavs even more so)

[PeaceBlondie]

Maybe this has been covered, but for the next year or two (or ten years), people who would fly economy class are not going to have the disposable income for flights and foreign vacations. Some currencies - not just the USD but the won, for example - have taken such a beating against the baht that it is surprising that Korean tourists are only down by two %.

[Prakanong]

Maybe the A380 configured with 600+ seats is not a bad idea after all and Airbus got it so right?

Everyone is cutting down on the travel though - later in the year I have had to plan back to back meetings in London and Belgium to avoid two A380 Biz class flights at around 8000 SGD each - we are all doing ouit bit and I will just have to take a bigger bag

I do think the highers costs will drive some away at the margin - as I said in another thread a couple of years ago you could do London Bangkok for 350 GBP which was very cheap

Guy's will also cut down on the number of trips - maybe 2 instead of 3 but stay longer

[Ulysses G.]

I think that tourism in Thailand may change over the next few years, but it will not come to a halt. Perhaps less less riff-raff and more family holidays. Perhaps new riff-raff from countries who haven't in the past produced large amounts of visitors to Thailand. I think increases in aviation fuel will cull a lot of the no-necks.

You'll have lots of high brow sorts such as yourself to debate why the no-necks shouldnt be allowed to breathe the same air as the educated chattering classes. Should be a hoot doesnt one think.

Single blokes will always have money for holidays, families have other priorities.

boiledegg has an excellent point!

[GuestHouse]

Expensive airline tickets will make them stop thinking about destinations like Thailand = too expensive. The same for Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Philippines and such.

Looking at what I paid for air tickets to Thailand 20 years ago and the cost of the same ticket now and then comparing that with average incomes it is clear that airfairs have not kept pace with incomes.

-----

But the question is when will Farang Tourism come to a halt and while it is natural for people to discuss their own country in terms of 'Farang' I suspect that the bigger picture with respect to 'Farang' visitors to Thailand is actually Russia and the emerging economies in what was the Eastern Block.

Closer to Thailand than the rest of Farang-Land, their economies are growing at a remarkable pace, added to which large disparities in wealth distribution are creating a wealthy middle class who can and are travelling to Thailand.

[garro]

I think that tourism in Thailand may change over the next few years, but it will not come to a halt. Perhaps less less riff-raff and more family holidays. Perhaps new riff-raff from countries who haven't in the past produced large amounts of visitors to Thailand. I think increases in aviation fuel will cull a lot of the no-necks.

You'll have lots of high brow sorts such as yourself to debate why the no-necks shouldnt be allowed to breathe the same air as the educated chattering classes. Should be a hoot doesnt one think.

Single blokes will always have money for holidays, families have other priorities.

Perhaps academic exams and personality tests should be part of the passport application process

By the way, I'm only being sarcastic about the exams and personality tests.

It would work out far too expensive for the tax-payer.

Maybe the cost of passports could be made prohibitively expensive?

Seriously though, I am sure my holligan brothers and sisters deserve their holidays just like everyone else. Most yobs are just misunderstood and a few week in the 'land of hugs' will sort them out.

[Prakanong]

"But the question is when will Farang Tourism come to a halt and while it is natural for people to discuss their own country in terms of 'Farang' I suspect that the bigger picture with respect to 'Farang' visitors to Thailand is actually Russia and the emerging economies in what was the Eastern Block.

Closer to Thailand than the rest of Farang-Land, their economies are growing at a remarkable pace, added to which large disparities in wealth distribution are creating a wealthy middle class who can and are travelling to Thailand."

We know the E7 which includes the BRIC's are growing and will overtake most of the current G7 by 2050 but how big do you think their middle class is and how do you calculate middle class?

India for example has more middle class than the USA calculated in Indian terms - guy's I work with from Indoia are very middle class by their terms ie post grad's working in clinical research but we pay our Thai people more than them for the same job - in fact in the whole od APAC it is probably only the PI that is on lower or the same wages.

Yes there is a global shift taking place but it is being shared by more and more and the growth might not be enough to raise the bar for all.

[Shotime]

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

As soon as the mandatory Chastity Belt Law takes effect.

Chastity belts? It's difficult enough to get them to wear panties.

The people and the government of Thailand are doing a good job of scaring tourists away. Everything else just adds to the decline.

[grantbkk]

For many of us who live in Bangkok, Phuket, Chiang Mai and Pattaya it's obvious that for the past two years we have had low season, low-low season and no season rather than high and low seasons we saw only a few years ago. After the last coup d'état on September 19th, 2006 all of the Asian tourists somehow disappeared and didn’t return for a long time. Their numbers began to dwindle again when the latest round of political unrest began. People from the Middle East and from Eastern Block European countries are beginning to pick up some of the slack. They have somehow found money to travel and political unrest here is like a spirited debate in their countries. They keep the air travel costs down by booking package tours.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TOT) should take a fall someday for mismanagement and failed marketing attempts to lure westerners to this country. The billions of Baht spent seems to go to administrative costs including constant world travel for their executives. It makes a great first impression when the first time visitor is attacked by a taxi tout at the airport, escapes, then has to wait in line to be ripped off by the taxi mafia. A quick 135kph trip the hotel and the adventure begins. Fortunately news of what goes on here is spread through the Internet. The random early closing hours for entertainment venues, the inconvenient interruption of a night out for that pesky urine test, the seemingly ever-present random election day alcohol sales restrictions and of course the reported homicides, rapes and robberies involving westerners make their way to the informed traveler.

It seems to the casual observer that tourists have spoken with their feet. The price for fun here is constantly increasing. They have several alternatives to Amazing Thailand. TOT, if you recall, said they does not want the backpackers or middle class tourists anymore. They want the well heeled families to visit tourist sites for the oxcart rides and floating markets. To me it seems a little over ambitious given the attractions and infrastructure here. Sure there are the luxury beach resorts and spas for the rich. However, once they venture out into the Land of Smiles and are confronted by the realities of broken sewer and transportation systems they may begin to regret their vacation choice. They will pass on their close calls of traffic accidents and random acts of violence they witness to the next batch of potential travelers. If things don’t improve dramatically, Thailand may eventually become known as “Burma with Electricity”.

One macabre suggestion is to fit out armored personnel carriers for tours in the deep south. Finally Thailand will have some extreme tourism unique in every way. A fresh look at civil war up close from the government's prospective. How much would extreme tourists pay for a ride in an air-conditioned semi-bombproof APC with large windows made of the best bulletproof glass? A tour and the possibility of an attack in the region where thousands have been killed over the past four years.

Two questions for the previous posters: Are no-necks weight lifters, rugby and American football players or English people? I don't get it. Do people actually travel to Germany for vacation?

[jumnien]

It appears all the tourists have gone to Hua Hin!