Royal Bank Of Scotland Foresees Imminent Crash, Telegraph Says

[Bizz]

This is all very worrying now

Royal Bank of Scotland Foresees Imminent Crash, Telegraph Says

By David Altaner

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc analysts are telling clients to prepare for a crash in world stock and credit markets during the next three months as inflation paralyses central banks, the Daily Telegraph reported.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index will probably fall by more than 300 points, to about 1050, by September as the excesses of the past few years catch up with the world economy, according to a report by the bank's research team, the newspaper said.

A short-term U.S. fiscal stimulus will start to fizzle out soon, the delayed impact of soaring oil prices will cost many workers their jobs and lenders will start to cut off credit, the Telegraph cites the report as saying.

The Royal Bank report said central banks will be unable to lower interest rates in response, for fear of worsening inflation, the newspaper added.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Altaner in London at [email protected]

Stocks, Credit Slump Will Worsen, RBS's Janjuah Says (Update1)

By Alexis Xydias

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- The worst of the stock and credit market declines that began last year is yet to come as inflation accelerates and economic growth falters, according to a Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc strategist.

Central bankers are ``in a dangerous corner'' where the chance of a ``major policy error has just super-spiked,'' Bob Janjuah, a London-based credit strategist at the U.K.'s second- largest bank, wrote in a report. Any stock rally in the next month ``will be the significant opportunity this year to get short stocks,'' he wrote in a report dated June 11.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index may fall to 1,050, a 22 percent decline from current levels, Janjuah said. The cost of protecting bonds from default is likely to soar, pushing the benchmark Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit-default swaps on 50 European companies to a record 700 basis point from 473, the note said.

The S&P 500 dropped 12 percent from a record last June as writedowns stemming from the credit turmoil approached $400 billion. The index is down 3.5 percent this month after Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy makers indicated interest rates may need to increase as the threat of inflation intensifies.

``Mid-July through to October is likely to be the most bearish period we will experience in the bear market,'' Janjuah wrote.

[haybilly]

This is all very worrying now

Royal Bank of Scotland Foresees Imminent Crash, Telegraph Says

By David Altaner

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc analysts are telling clients to prepare for a crash in world stock and credit markets during the next three months as inflation paralyses central banks, the Daily Telegraph reported.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index will probably fall by more than 300 points, to about 1050, by September as the excesses of the past few years catch up with the world economy, according to a report by the bank's research team, the newspaper said.

A short-term U.S. fiscal stimulus will start to fizzle out soon, the delayed impact of soaring oil prices will cost many workers their jobs and lenders will start to cut off credit, the Telegraph cites the report as saying.

The Royal Bank report said central banks will be unable to lower interest rates in response, for fear of worsening inflation, the newspaper added.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Altaner in London at [email protected]

Stocks, Credit Slump Will Worsen, RBS's Janjuah Says (Update1)

By Alexis Xydias

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- The worst of the stock and credit market declines that began last year is yet to come as inflation accelerates and economic growth falters, according to a Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc strategist.

Central bankers are ``in a dangerous corner'' where the chance of a ``major policy error has just super-spiked,'' Bob Janjuah, a London-based credit strategist at the U.K.'s second- largest bank, wrote in a report. Any stock rally in the next month ``will be the significant opportunity this year to get short stocks,'' he wrote in a report dated June 11.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index may fall to 1,050, a 22 percent decline from current levels, Janjuah said. The cost of protecting bonds from default is likely to soar, pushing the benchmark Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit-default swaps on 50 European companies to a record 700 basis point from 473, the note said.

The S&P 500 dropped 12 percent from a record last June as writedowns stemming from the credit turmoil approached $400 billion. The index is down 3.5 percent this month after Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy makers indicated interest rates may need to increase as the threat of inflation intensifies.

``Mid-July through to October is likely to be the most bearish period we will experience in the bear market,'' Janjuah wrote.

A question to all you financial experts out there--in view of this topic, and with regard to the advice that has been given for some time , is it now time to reduce all UK savings accounts to a sum no greater than 35K sterling--or, as some advisors say, is this paranoid overkill? Any views?

[Bizz]

No one replying all off transfering there equities to cash.

[britmaveric]

^Commodities

[bratpack]

At the moment the signs are bleak.I have a 5 year executive bond and i am over 700,000 baht down over a 6 month period.Lucky i do not need to touch any money for 3.5-4 years.Thank god for that else i might need to work and that will be horrible lol.

[PhilHarries]

We are all doomed I tell you, doomed!

Not only that but the sky is falling!

Analysts are another bunch of parasites paid to do nothing but sit and look at figures and make predictions. When those predictions (aka guesses) are correct they crow from the roof tops, when they are wrong all goes eerily quiet.

This is all very worrying now

No. Worry about the things you have control over, the rest will happen or not come what may.

When I am staring up the barrel of an AK47 wielded by a rabid raghead I'll start worrying, until then I'll live my life.

btw wasn't the Royal Bank of Scotland one of those UK banks in serious financial difficulties recently?

[Prakanong]

Yeah we are all doomed

Some stock will fal

Some will be OK

Jobs in O&G will be OK some other sectors will not

Defensive - we need energy and we need healthcare

Commodoties like someone said above - Jim Rogers predicts rises for 8 yeara and maybe 22

[jumnien]

Stocks may be falling but it's really easy to make money now. He who has the cash owns the deal... Funding mezzanine loans in the US for quality buildings pays 12-18%. Oil drilling leases are paying 20-30%/year. It's easy time in the US market now for investors!

[Pakboong]

RBS is holding $400 billlion of US debt. They will probably have to write off as much as 30%.

[William Osborne]

These banks make me puke… still dishing out advice when their own stocks are the biggest losers on the market. Probably the main stocks to drag down the market over the next few months will be banks as more of their bad loans/dodgy mortgages fail.

Bank of Scotland share price has dropped 56 % in the last 12 months, if they are so clever at making predictions how come they couldn’t see that instead of dishing out money hand over fist to people with no hope of paying it back.

Last 3-4 years I invested heavily in “low-medium risk” mutual funds with my bank and the morons put a good proportion into financial institutions which needless to say have plummeted. Fortunately I am in my mid 30’s so can afford to leave it there but I feel for older investors who would have depended on these investments as their retirement fund. Jeez, even the most basic investor understands the theory of not putting all your eggs in one basket.

I have since opened my own brokerage acc and am doing reasonably well except for one bad screw up with “China Aluminum” which has dropped like a lead balloon in the last month but at least its my own screw up and I believe its still good for long term.

Stock markets historically work on average 7 year cycles and the last “crash” was 2001 after the world trade center/dot.com combination so I'll still be investing next months wages in stocks that I’m keeping a eye on as I think it’s a pretty good time to get in for the long term but I'll never again give these so called “fund managers” a penny again.

Most people with a internet connection and half a brain, prepared to do a little research are better off doing their own investing and staying away from these jumped up “bank clerks”

[thaiclan]

I agree William Osbourne, anyone with half a brain and an internet connection would be better of doing their own research and investing. No-ones ever gonna care about your money as much as you do! regardless of what those commission based financial advisors say!

Hill Billy you wrote "A question to all you financial experts out there--in view of this topic, and with regard to the advice that has been given for some time , is it now time to reduce all UK savings accounts to a sum no greater than 35K sterling--or, as some advisors say, is this paranoid overkill? Any views?"

If anyone has 35k in a UK savings account you must have far less than the half a brain requisite required for personal wealth managament :-)

[beginner]

I agree William Osbourne, anyone with half a brain and an internet connection would be better of doing their own research and investing. No-ones ever gonna care about your money as much as you do! regardless of what those commission based financial advisors say!

Hill Billy you wrote "A question to all you financial experts out there--in view of this topic, and with regard to the advice that has been given for some time , is it now time to reduce all UK savings accounts to a sum no greater than 35K sterling--or, as some advisors say, is this paranoid overkill? Any views?"

If anyone has 35k in a UK savings account you must have far less than the half a brain requisite required for personal wealth managament :-)

UK Offshore Bank Sterling Savings accounts offer around 6.3% instant access and are as risky as the institution that offers that rate. (Nationwide International).

Why would Hill Billy only have far less than half a brain if he is using such accounts?

What do you suggest should be done with surplus cash at the present inflationary time?

[thaiclan]

I agree William Osbourne, anyone with half a brain and an internet connection would be better of doing their own research and investing. No-ones ever gonna care about your money as much as you do! regardless of what those commission based financial advisors say!

Hill Billy you wrote "A question to all you financial experts out there--in view of this topic, and with regard to the advice that has been given for some time , is it now time to reduce all UK savings accounts to a sum no greater than 35K sterling--or, as some advisors say, is this paranoid overkill? Any views?"

If anyone has 35k in a UK savings account you must have far less than the half a brain requisite required for personal wealth managament :-)

UK Offshore Bank Sterling Savings accounts offer around 6.3% instant access and are as risky as the institution that offers that rate. (Nationwide International).

Why would Hill Billy only have far less than half a brain if he is using such accounts?

What do you suggest should be done with surplus cash at the present inflationary time?

Hill Billy did not mention offshore accounts.......

[malcolminthemiddle]

Hill Billy did not mention offshore accounts.......

Nor did you.

[egg6447]

What do you suggest should be done with surplus cash at the present inflationary time?

buy buy buy.

[beginner]

What do you suggest should be done with surplus cash at the present inflationary time?

buy buy buy.

Ok. Egg6447. But what what what?

Property is too illiquid and most people living here probably have enough already both in Farangland and here in our guest location.

Stocks and shares need too much micro management and RBOS may be correct about the downward trajectory.

The ideal situation for a typical Thailand retiree is security and ease of access to take instant advantage of any 'too good to miss situations' that may crop up.

There will be lots if there really is a calamitous financial shakeout around the world as some are predicting.

So, what what what would you buy buy buy?

[Briggsy]

Icelandic Banks?

[William Osborne]

What do you suggest should be done with surplus cash at the present inflationary time?

buy buy buy.

So, what what what would you buy buy buy?

I am looking at 2 titanium companies Titanium Metals and RTI International Metals, think these have hit rock bottom so will probably buy on the upward trend

Would also look at china aluminium, china petroluem & chemical as these are pretty cheap at the moment as everyone bailed from China stocks last year..

If/when the oil fiasco sorts itself out , look at refining operations as they have taken a hammering YTD.

Or else just pick stuff at random, Recently I was reading about an experiment where they had 5 year olds picking stocks and on average they performed better than fund managers.

Edited June 23, 2008 by William Osborne

[LaoPo]

Or else just pick stuff at random, Recently I was reading about an experiment where they had 5 year olds picking stocks and on average they performed better than fund managers.

So did the monkeys.

One might as well put a dartboard in a bar full of ladies and have them throw the darts; you might be lucky...

or not

LaoPo

[PhilHarries]

If anyone has 35k in a UK savings account you must have far less than the half a brain requisite required for personal wealth managament :-)

That is your opinion and you are allowed it.

But if a person earns his money is it not his right to invest it as he likes without know-it-all anonymous keyboard experts questioning his mental capacity?

[Bizz]

The rain has started to fall the storm is now on the way.

Nasdaq headed for big drop.

Edited June 26, 2008 by Bizz

[apetley]

I agree William Osbourne, anyone with half a brain and an internet connection would be better of doing their own research and investing. No-ones ever gonna care about your money as much as you do! regardless of what those commission based financial advisors say!

Hill Billy you wrote "A question to all you financial experts out there--in view of this topic, and with regard to the advice that has been given for some time , is it now time to reduce all UK savings accounts to a sum no greater than 35K sterling--or, as some advisors say, is this paranoid overkill? Any views?"

If anyone has 35k in a UK savings account you must have far less than the half a brain requisite required for personal wealth managament :-)

If you shop around you can get 7% on a UK savings account which is pretty good. A nice safe return so not sensible to dismiss them out of hand.

Yes you can get better returns than that but then the risk goes up too.

As part of a varied portfolio, money in a savings account at the above rate is a sensible call I'd say as the minimal risk part of that portfolio.

I notice that you have not suggested any sensible alternatives.

[Bizz]

Time to buy Gold. looks like it may head to $5000

[ray23]

Yep buy low sell high. But how do you know when w found the bottom. Seven year cycle, seems accurate. Doesn't look over to me yet.

Ok I got the internet some question as to brain so any clues how to start about learning the reseach aspect?

[Bizz]

Yep buy low sell high. But how do you know when w found the bottom. Seven year cycle, seems accurate. Doesn't look over to me yet.

Ok I got the internet some question as to brain so any clues how to start about learning the reseach aspect?

Imagine standing on a beach with a bucket hoping to catch the rush that is coming in.

It ain't over till its over.

Frightening times ahead.

[ray23]

Interesting timing

Royal Bank of Scotland Credit Ratings Are Lowered by Moody's

By Ben Livesey

June 27 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, the U.K.'s second-biggest bank, had its credit rating lowered by Moody's Investors Service who cited ``higher volatility'' in its securities unit and ``greater risk'' of defaults at its U.K. division.

The Edinburgh-based bank's financial-strength rating was lowered to B from B+ and its senior debt rating was lowered to Aa2 from Aa1, Moody's said in a statement today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Livesey in London [email protected]

Last Updated: June 27, 2008 08:16 EDT

[Tammi]

Yep buy low sell high. But how do you know when w found the bottom. Seven year cycle, seems accurate. Doesn't look over to me yet.

Ok I got the internet some question as to brain so any clues how to start about learning the reseach aspect?

I used to use Financial Times online to research Mutual Funds but they also do stocks I suppose. I used to use because now I'm older and things happening and don't have the time and need really secure stuff.

Agree wholehearedly that look after your own money. I lost USD 30% from a portfolio in last crash - I was yelling SELL and this idiot financial advisor didn't/wouldn't. Next howdeedo was with another so called financial advisor who sold correctly but then forgot about doing something else with the money (I was very busy with other personal matters at the time). But she did pay me the interest I was out. At present I am bitching with a bank manager because I left it up to him to get me a preferential exchange rate. Maybe he did - who is to know? - but I think that I have lost at the least 286 UKP and perhaps at the most 628 UKP but that "most" is without taking into account my supposed preferential rate.

So look after your own money and make your own mistakes. I should've phoned the bank myself as I did in the past and got the preferential rate which, in the past, the bank has held for a time until I could research and decide. Now, when I've complained to this present manager I am dealing with, he is twaddling on about 'time sensitive'.

To recognise a bottom you need to be watch, watch, watching a selection of stocks from the various sectors. I also like Chip Anderson who sends out newsletters. Google him and see if you can find him but next newsletter I get I will post link here.

[bendix]

Agree wholehearedly that look after your own money. I lost USD 30% from a portfolio in last crash - I was yelling SELL and this idiot financial advisor didn't/wouldn't. Next howdeedo was with another so called financial advisor who sold correctly but then forgot about doing something else with the money (I was very busy with other personal matters at the time).

Let me understand this right? You were yelling sell sell sell before, during or after the crash?

I yell buy buy buy during crashes and sell sell sell during rallies.

Perhaps I've got it all wrong.